nercomp: web governance - planning for disruption
DESCRIPTION
Only some emerging technologies will become disruptive. Can we identify which ones? If so, how? We'll survey some current methods for: analyzing present conditions, examining trends on the horizon, spotting which might become disruptive, and preparing for the unexpected.TRANSCRIPT
Planning for Disruption:
Governance, Strategy, and Management in a Web 3.0 World
February 7, 2011
Jay Collier • [email protected]
bit.ly/nercomp_disruption
B. S. Wise
“An act of delaying or interrupting the continuity”
“A ‘disruptive innovation’ is an innovation that transforms an existing market or sector — or creates a new one — by introducing simplicity, convenience, accessibility, reliability, and affordability”
0
10
20
30
40
Untitled 1
Air travel
Electricity
The Internet
Nuclear weapons
The Pill
8%
39%
38%
4%
3%
SURVEY
Most disruptive of 20th century?
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
Agile incumbents
Early adopters
Investors
Scrappy upstarts
13%
34%
6%
47%
SURVEY
Who is most responsible?
Proprietary systems !
Text interfaces !
Landlines !
Wired modems !
Real-time video viewing !
Centralized servers !
Expensive mainframes !
Content management !
Video studios !
Local storage !
Open software and standards
Graphical Web browsers
Cell phones and network access
Broadband and wireless networks
Digital video recorders
Peer-to-peer file sharing
Cheap portable storage
Free blogging services
YouTube and camcorders
Cloud computing, accessed anywhere
SURVEY
Which have been most disruptive?
The way it was ...
David DeHeter
Luis Argerich
The way it was ...
The way it has been ...
NASA Goddard Photo and Video
The way it will be ...
GE Healthcare
Vizzzual.com
docsearls
Andrew de Poda
Martin Luff
Martin Luff
Assoc. Bay Area Governments
• Inventory local conditions
• Survey underground pressures
• Evolve agile practices
David de Hetre
Inventory local conditions
Mission StatementFord Motor Company:
We are a global family with a proud heritage passionately committed to providing personal mobility for people around the world.
Values StatementMicrosoft:
We value integrity, honesty, openness, personal excellence, constructive self-criticism, continual self-improvement, and mutual respect.
Competitors/constituentsAmnesty International:
• UN Human Rights Commission
• Médcins Sans Frontières
• Human Rights Watch
SWOT StatementStrengthsExpertiseLocationInnovative svc.
WeaknessesMarketingDistributionQuality
OpportunitiesInternationalMergersWeak compet.
ThreatsPrice warRegulationsTrade barriers
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Business context
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Governance framework
Project Perfect, Level Five SolutionsMarc Smith, Colin
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Definitions for success
30 Lines, David Carrington, Wesley Fryer
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Current staff and budgeting structure
Matthew Cua, D’Arcy Norman, Jay Collier
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Domain architecture
Jay Collier
INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Tactical priorities
Stephen Jones
Survey underground pressures
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Environmental scan
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Virtual prediction markets
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Delphi forecasting method
ADOPTION WITHIN ONE YEAR Mobile computing & open content
ADOPTION WITHIN THREE YEARS Electronic books & simple augmented reality
ADOPTION WITHIN FIVE YEARS Gesture-based computing & visual data analysis
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Scenario development
Communications technology scenarios 2015
Digital Balkanization
The Wide Open World
The Long Great Recession
World of Points
Imbrication Nation
NITLE
Course managementLibrariesE-books
Collaboration toolsScholarly communicationAdministrative computing
Computer hardwareProfessional development
SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Systems approach
Jay Collier, Wikipedia
San Jose Library
Prepare for unexpected challenges
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
1. Monitor
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
2. Listen
Pelle Sten, Tim Pierce, Kristen Wolff
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
3. Prioritize
Eliatt, Jay Collier
Text
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
4. Prototype
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
5. Formalize
Rob Enslin, Babak Fakhamzadeh, Daniel Panev
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
6. Operationalize
Robert Higgins, Perhapstoopink, UMass, EDUCAUSE
1996
2001
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
7. Iterate
2006
Wikipedia
Benefits (revenue, lead generation) - Costs (people, materials) = ROI
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
8. Evaluate
Bill McChesney, TopRankBlog
s
PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
9. Repeat
Awareness Knowledge Selection Satisfaction Loyalty Advocacy
Robin Corps
Planning for Disruption:
Governance, Strategy, and Management in a Web 3.0 World
bit.ly/nercomp_disruption
Jay Collier • [email protected]
B. S. Wise