neda_sec_esguerra - mindanao shipping conference 2016
TRANSCRIPT
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Philippine Macroeconomic Outlook,
Transport Directions, and Regional Developments
Emmanuel F. EsguerraSocioeconomic Planning Secretary
PISFA and PortCalls Shipping Conference
Davao City
27 April 2016
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Outline
I. Macroeconomic Trends
II. Near-term Growth Outlook and Risks
III. Transport DirectionsIV. Regional Developments
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Macroeconomic Performance
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-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1 9 5 5 - 1 9 6 0
1 9 5 6 - 1 9 6 1
1 9 5 7 - 1 9 6 2
1 9 5 8 - 1 9 6 3
1 9 5 9 - 1 9 6 4
1 9 6 0 - 1 9 6 5
1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 6
1 9 6 2 - 1 9 6 7
1 9 6 3 - 1 9 6 8
1 9 6 4 - 1 9 6 9
1 9 6 5 - 1 9 7 0
1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1
1 9 6 7 - 1 9 7 2
1 9 6 8 - 1 9 7 3
1 9 6 9 - 1 9 7 4
1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 5
1 9 7 1 - 1 9 7 6
1 9 7 2 - 1 9 7 7
1 9 7 3 - 1 9 7 8
1 9 7 4 - 1 9 7 9
1 9 7 5 - 1 9 8 0
1 9 7 6 - 1 9 8 1
1 9 7 7 - 1 9 8 2
1 9 7 8 - 1 9 8 3
1 9 7 9 - 1 9 8 4
1 9 8 0 - 1 9 8 5
1 9 8 1 - 1 9 8 6
1 9 8 2 - 1 9 8 7
1 9 8 3 - 1 9 8 8
1 9 8 4 - 1 9 8 9
1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 0
1 9 8 6 - 1 9 9 1
1 9 8 7 - 1 9 9 2
1 9 8 8 - 1 9 9 3
1 9 8 9 - 1 9 9 4
1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 5
1 9 9 1 - 1 9 9 6
1 9 9 2 - 1 9 9 7
1 9 9 3 - 1 9 9 8
1 9 9 4 - 1 9 9 9
1 9 9 5 - 2 0 0 0
1 9 9 6 - 2 0 0 1
1 9 9 7 - 2 0 0 2
1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 3
1 9 9 9 - 2 0 0 4
2 0 0 0 - 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 6
2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 8
2 0 0 4 - 2 0 0 9
2 0 0 5 - 2 0 1 0
2 0 0 6 - 2 0 1 1
2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 2
2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 3
2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 4
2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 5
6-yr moving average 6.2% 2010-2015 ave
Average growth in 2010-2015 is the highest 6-year average growth since the
mid-1970s.
Source: NEDA Staff calculations
1971-1976;
1972-1977;
1973-1978
2010-2015
4
in %Real GDP growth (6-year moving average)
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015
Agriculture Industry Services
Supply Side
-2.0
-1.00.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015
Consumption Government
Investment Net exports
Demand Side
Investment and industry are increasingly becoming major drivers of
GDP growth…
2.8%
4.5%
6.2%
2.8%
4.5%
6.2% Ave. growth
Structural transformation taking place
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Fourth Quarter FY
2014 2015 2014 2015
Supply side
Agriculture 4.2 -0.3 1.6 0.2
Industry 9.1 6.8 7.9 6.0
o.w. Manufacturing 7.7 6.6 8.3 5.7
Services 5.6 7.4 5.9 6.7
Demand side
Private consumption 5.0 6.4 5.4 6.2
Government consumption 9.4 17.4 1.7 9.4Capital Formation 3.0 13.5 5.4 13.6
o.w. Fixed capital formation 8.0 22.5 6.8 14.0
Exports 12.8 7.1 11.3 5.5
Imports 9.9 13.3 8.7 11.9
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.8Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)
Growth of GDP by Component (%)
Recent performance indicates that the economy is steadily growing despite
the initial slowdown
Favorable Macroeconomic Trends
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Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
Our vibrant economy is producing more and better jobs...Unemployment and Underemployment rates
(%)
Employment Generated 2000- Jan 2016 (‘000)
Notes:
a/ The FY 2014 LFS estimate is the average of April, July and Oct rounds excluding Leyte data
b/ The FY 2015 LFS estimates is the average of the Jan to Oct 2015 rounds excluding Leyte data
c/ FY 2015 employment generation estimate is the average of April, July and Oct excluding Leyte data
d/ January 2016 employment generation estimate excludes the province of Leyte.
*1997-2005: Adoption of population projection benchmark is based on the results of the 1995 Census
**2006-current: Adoption of population projection benchmark based on the results of the 2000 Census
18.8
19.3
20.0
19.3
18.4 18.5
19.7
7.4
7.0 7.07.1
6.6
6.3
5.8
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014a/ 2015b/ Jan
'2016
U n e m p
l o y m e n t R a t e
U n d e
r e m p
l o y m e n t R a t e
Underemployment (%) Unemployment (%)
3,7823,448
4,310
183
75250.3
51.9
56.7
59.3
63.2
45
50
55
60
65
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015c/ Jan '2016d/
W a g e a n
d S
a l a r y W o r k e r s
( % i n T o t a
l
E m p
l o y m e n t )
E m p
l o y m e n t G e n e r a t e
d
Employment Generated ('000)
Wage and Salary Worker (% in Total Employment)
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
J
- - a r - 3
p r - 3
a y -
J u n - 3
J l -
u - 3
- c t - - c -
J
- - r - r - -
J
- J l - -
S e p -
c t -
o v -
e c -
J a n - 5
F e b - 5
r - r - -
J
- J l - - -
c t - - c -
J
- - a r - 6
Core Inflation Headline Inflation
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NPL
Ratio, LHS*
Real interest
rates, RHS**
CAR, RHS***
* as of Jan ’16 ** as of Jan ’16 *** as of Q3 2015
Headline and Core Inflation, Jan 2013- March 2016
Monetary and financial conditions fully support growth
Real Interest Rate and Non-performing Loans
(NPLs), 2005- 2016
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Robust External Position
1070
2007
32153737
5740 5724
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Increasing Net FDI
Net FDI (US$ million)
growth (%)
26.5
2.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Positive Current Acct. &Declining External Debt
External Debt to GDP ratio - LHS
Current Account to GDP Ratio - RHS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
Continuous remittances amidstslowdown in deployment
Cash Remittances
(US$mn), LHS
OF Deployment
('000), RHS
125.1
85.0
47.5
8.6 7.5 6.5 3.4 2.0 1.4 -8.6
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
TH TW PH ID VN SG IN CH KR MY
Average Growth of FDI, 2012-2014
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10
Our stronger fiscal position has been recognized, earning an
investment-grade status from major CRAs for the first time in 2013
• Modest fiscal deficit; Declining Public debt & interest payments; Increasingreliance on domestic financing
• Result: resilient fiscal position
Fiscal side:
Fiscal Position
National Government Borrowing Program (%)
Share of expenditures allocated to interest payments
-7.00
-2.00
3.00
8.00
13.00
18.00
Fiscal Position Revenue Effort Tax Effort
National gov’t outstanding debt (% of GDP)
13.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.020.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
64.6 65.6 65.283.6
93.9
72.157.6
75.584.5
35.4 34.4 34.816.4
6.1
27.942.4
24.515.5
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 as of Feb
2016
2016
ProposedDomestic Foreign
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 end
Feb
2016
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Near-term Growth Outlook and Risks
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The Philippines is expected to remain one of the fastest
growing economies in Asia
GDP Growth of Selected Asian Economies
(FY2015, FY2016f & FY2017f)
Source: IMF-WEO.12
7.5
6.96.7
5.8
5.04.8
2.8
2.0
7.5
6.3
5.86.0
4.5
5.1
3.2
2.9
7.5
6.0 6.06.2
5.0
5.5
3.6
3.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
India Chin a Vietnam Philippines Ma laysia Indonesia Thailand Singap ore
2015 2016 2017
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The vibrant view on the Philippine economy is also shared by
the private sector.
Source: Various sources, as of 13 April 2016
Consensus Forecast, Real GDP growth (in %)2016 2017
ADB 6.0 6.1
Barclays 5.5 -
Citi 5.4 6.0
Fitch rating 6.0 6.0
Goldman Sachs 6.0 -HSBC 5.8 5.8
IMF 6.0 6.2
Metrobank Research 6.3 -
Moody’s 6.0 6.0
Nomura 6.5 -
Standard and Poor’s 6.0 6.3
Standard Chartered Bank 5.7 5.8
UNESCAP 6.3 -
WB 6.4 6.2
Median 6.0 6.0
Mean 6.0 6.0
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Expected Drivers of Growth
Demand side
Household consumption: remittance inflows, strong consumer confidence, low
inflation, low interest rates
Government spending: expansion of social protection programs (i.e. CCT, K-
12, Philhealth coverage, etc)
Investment: public construction, including infrastructure and reconstruction;
private construction Exports of services: good prospects for BPM and tourism
Supply s ide
Lower petroleum prices
Business Process Management (BPM) fueling growth in the real estate,
renting, and business activities sector
Construction and infrastructure development
International and domestic tourism
Wholesale and retail trade
Manufacturing resurgence 15
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Fragile growth in Japan Slowdown in large emerging economies, particularly China Asynchronous monetary policies in major developed
economies
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, extended periodof low oil prices Maritime dispute in the West Philippine Sea
Risks to Growth
External
Domestic
Natural hazards including the current El Nino phenomenon
Possible La Nina in the second semester of 2016 Disruptions in the peace process Delays in infrastructure and reconstruction projects Logistics bottlenecks And thin power reserves (potential impact of El Nino on
hydropower)
16
We remain vigilant and well- positioned against the downside risks to
growth
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Transport Directions in the Medium Term
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Growth-enhanced fiscal space has allowed major investments in
infrastructure with spending on infrastructure more than tripling...
Source: Department of Budget and Management
Public infrastructure spending, Bn PhP and % of GDP
306.9346.2
595.8
766.5876.6 1018.7
2.72.7
4.3
5.05.2 5.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual (2013-2014)/Program(2015)/Proposed(2016)/Projections(2017-2018) Ratio to GDP (rhs)
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Source: Comprehensive & Integrated Infrastructure Program (CIIP) : PhP7 .27Tn (as of December 2015)
Total Infrastructure Investment by Sector(2013-2016 and beyond)
Bulk of which are slated for transportation, social, and energy
infrastructures..
Top 10 Agencies with the Largest InvestmentRequirements in the CIIP
ICT
0.01Other Public
Infrastructure
0.04
Water
Resources
0.14
Energy
0.18
Social
Infrastructure
0.20
Transportation
0.43
Rank Name of Agency # of ProjectsInvestment Cost
(in Billion PhP)
1 DPWH 323 2,269.35
2 DOTC 588
1,397.763 DOE 275 1,327.06
4 DOH 39 503.71
5 DepEd 7 310.77
6 OPAFSAM 258 234.87
7 BCDA 14 210.22
8 HUDCC 10 173.67
9 DILG 25 131.50
10 DA 108 98.91
Total 1647 6,657.83
Share of Top10 Agencies to Total Infra
Investments =
91.61% of all CIIP
projects
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These projects are funded mostly by the national government…
[CELLRANGE]
[CATEGORY NAME]
[PERCENTAGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CATEGORY NAME]
[PERCENTAGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CATEGORY NAME]
[PERCENTAGE]
Comprehensive and Integrated Infrastructure Program (CIIP), by Funding SourceTotal Infrastructure Investment of PhP7.27 trillion;
Years: 2013-2016 and Beyond
Source: Comprehensive & Integrated Infrastructure Program (CIIP) : PhP7 .27Tn (as of December 2015)
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…complemented by private investments in public infrastructure.
Status of PPP Projects (as of 01 April 2016)
Source: PPP Center
Projects by Status No. of ProjectsAmount
(PHP bn)
Projects Under Implementation
Contract Awarded 12 196.53
Other projects under Implementation 2 106.73
PPP Pipeline
Projects under Procurement 15 579.76
For Approval of Relevant Government Bodies 5 101.94
For Finalization of Project Structure 1 536.03Projects with Ongoing Studies 3 47.93
Projects Under Conceptualization/Development 13 NA
Total 51 1,568.92
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Underpinned by stronger links between Investment
Programming and Budgeting
Update of the
Comprehensive andIntegrated
Infrastructure Program(CIIP), at least once a
year.
Implementation ofThree Year
Infrastructure RollingProgram (TRIP) by July
2016
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Multimodal Transport
• Multimodal Transport Framework is vital in
ensuring that multimodal transport systems
are developed as seamless networks
servicing all nationally strategic important
corridors, and implemented in a timely
manner.
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Recent Efforts for Transport Systems Development
Program/Study Focus AreaSurvey on Mindanao Logistics
Infrastructure Network (SMLIN)
Logistics Infrastructure System in Mindanao
Department of Tourism (DOT)- Department
of Public Works and Highways (DPWH)
Convergence Program (Convergence
Program)
Logistics Infrastructure providing road access
to/from tourist destination areas and other
transport infrastructures such as ports and
airports
Master Plan on High Standard Highway
(HSH) Network Development
Road network and routes for HSH within the
sphere of 200-km radius from Metro Manila and
select corridors in Davao to meet future traffic
demand.
Data Collection Survey on Disaster-
Resilient Feeder Ports and Logistics
Network
Disaster-resilient network of feeder ports to
ensure a secure and smooth logistics even in
time of disaster
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Multimodal Transport Framework• ASEAN Framework Agreement on
Multimodal Transport
The agreement recognizes the need todevelop an economic and efficient
multimodal transport services to expand
trade between member states and third
countries.
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2012 2014
International LPI score 3.02 3.0
Customs 2.63 3.0
Infrastructure 2.8 2.6
Ease of arranging shipments 2.97 3.33
Quality of logistic services 3.14 2.93
Tracking and tracing 3.3 3.0
Timeliness 3.3 3.07
Philippines’ Logistics Performance, by area
Source: World Bank Logistics Performance Index
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Regional Developments: Davao Region
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Efficient logistics are required to support the following
priority industry clusters in Davao Region:
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Current issues on sea transport:
• Limited capacity of Mindanao seaports, including
berthing structure, transit/cargo shed area for non-
containerized cargo, container yard for containerized
cargo and passenger terminal building.
• Need to reduce domestic cargo rates as rates in
Mindanao are more expensive than foreign cargo rates
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Mindanao Spatial Strategy/Development
Framework (MSSDF)
• Position the Davao Region to be the Southeast Asia
and Pacific Logistic hub of Mindanao
• Metropolitan Davao to serve as the island’s
international trading center with direct international
linkages through sea and air
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ASEAN Economic Community
• With Mindanao playing a critical role in the AEC, the
following sea linkages shall be established or enhanced:
– Zamboanga-Sandakan (Malaysia)
– Davao/General Santos-Bitung, Manado (Indonesia)
– Zamboanga-Muara (Brunei)
– Tawi-tawi-Tarakan (Indonesia)
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Three-year Rolling Infrastructure Program (TRIP) :
Region XI Major Transport Projects
Project Agency Output Province Project Cost(PhP Bn)
Status
Mawab-Maragusan-Caraga Road,
Davao Oriental 1st LD, Compostella
Valley 1st LD, Compostella Valley
2nd LD
DPWHConstruction of 86.84 km
road project
Compostela
Valley5.59 Bn Ongoing
Matanao-Kiblawan-Padada Road
incl. Bridge, Davao del Sur 2nd LDDPWH
Construction of 54.343 km
road projectDavao del Sur 1.82 Bn Ongoing
Davao city Bypass Construction DPWHConstruction of 37.17 km
road, 2.28 km Tunnel & 5.13
lm Bridge
Davao del Sur 16.81 Bn Proposed
Dnas-Laak Rd DPWHConstruction of 64 km roadproject
Compostella
Valley2.12 Bn Proposed
Maragusan-Pantukan Rd DPWHConstruction of 54 km road
project
Compostella
Valley1.79 Bn Proposed
Nabunturan-Laak Rd DPWHConstruction of 52.34 km
road project
Compostella
Valley
1.73 Bn Proposed
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Three-year Rolling Infrastructure Program (TRIP) :
Region XI Major Transport Projects
Project Agency Output Province Project Cost(PhP Bn)
Status
Laak-Malaybalay City Rd DPWHConstruction of 46 km road
project
Compostella
Valley1.52 Bn Proposed
Jct. Davao Diversion Rd-Tigatto-
Mandug-Callawa-Fatima-Malabog Rd-Valencia
DPWH Construction of 95.805 kmroad project Davao del Sur 4.14 Bn Proposed
San Agustin- Sto. Niño-Kisulad-
Tubalan Port RdDPWH
Construction of 30 km road
projectDavao del Sur 1.44 Bn Proposed
Carahayan-Alegado-Glan Rd DPWH
Construction of 75 km road
project Davao del Sur 3.11 Bn Proposed
Nuing-San Isidro-Molmol-
Lagimit-Big Margus-Glan RdDPWH
Construction of 35 km road
projectDavao del Sur 1.48 Bn Proposed
Balut Island Circumferencial Rd DPWHConstruction of 55 km road
projectDavao del Sur 3.03 Bn Proposed
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Three-year Rolling Infrastructure Program (TRIP) :
Region XI Major Transport Projects
Project Agency Output Province Project Cost(PhP Bn)
Status
Sarangani Island
Circumferencial RdDPWH Construction of 65 km road project
Davao del
Sur3.58 Bn Proposed
Pangian-Pinalpalan-Demolok Rd (Malungon,
Sarangani Province
Boundary)
DPWH Construction of 25 km road projectDavao del
Sur1.11 Bn Proposed
Mati-Lupon-Manay Rd DPWH Construction of 36.115 km road projectDavao
Oriental1.72 Bn Proposed
Davao Sasa Port
Modernization PPP
Project
DOTC/PPA
Modern container port with 2700 ground
slots and capable of handling up to 9000
TEU ships
Davao City 2.50 BnProcurem
ent Stage
Sugarcane Farm-To-Mill
Roads (FMR) with Block
Farms - Region XI
SRA 185 km. FMR
Davao del
Sur, Part of
South
Cotabato
2.20 Bn Proposed
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Philippine Macroeconomic Projections,
Transport Direction, and Regional Developments
Emmanuel F. EsguerraSocioeconomic Planning Secretary
PISFA and Portcalls Shipping Conference
Davao City
27 April 2016