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National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion April 18 to May 6, 2016

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Page 1: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

National Survey of

Nigerian Public Opinion

April 18 to May 6, 2016

Page 2: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Detailed Methodology

• The survey was conducted by NOIPolls under the supervision of Mr. Robert Carpenter of ChesapeakeBeach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between April 18 to May 6, 2016.

• All interviews were conducted by telephone for security reasons as well as speed given Nigeria’sdynamic and constantly shifting political situation. Interviews were conducted in five major Nigerianlanguages: English, Pidgin English, Yoruba, Hausa and Igbo.

• A total of 13,409 contacts were attempted with 7,901 interviews completed (response rate 58.92percent). All respondents were aged 18 and older.

• The average time per interview was 17 minutes.

• Geographic quotas were assigned to ensure that every senatorial district and state was proportionately represented in the sample.

• Post-stratification gender and state weights were constructed and applied to the data to make it more representative of the population, allow for more accurate population totals of estimates and reduce non-response bias. The weights assigned were in proportion to the 2006 Nigerian population figures.

• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 1.2 percent at the mid-range with a confidencelevel of 95 percent.

• Prior to the fielding of the survey a field test was conducted of 68 completed interviews. Issues identified during this field test were rectified prior to fielding the survey. These interviews were not incorporated into the final data set.

• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for marketand social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due torounding.

2

Page 3: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Top Issues

Page 4: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Do you believe Nigeria is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?

4

10%

27%

10%

27%

27%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly wrong direction

Not strongly wrong direction

Not strongly right direction

Strongly right direction

Page 5: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

5

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Strongly right direction 32% 22% 27% 27% 37%

Not strongly right

direction27% 27% 27% 28% 25%

Not strongly wrong

direction10% 10% 10% 9% 10%

Strongly wrong direction 25% 29% 27% 28% 19%

Don’t know/Refused 7% 12% 10% 9% 10%

Do you believe Nigeria is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 6: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

6

Response South South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Strongly right

direction17% 16% 10% 23% 36% 40% 37% 30%

Not strongly

right direction21% 18% 19% 25% 32% 36% 33% 27%

Not strongly

wrong direction12% 10% 12% 15% 7% 6% 5% 11%

Strongly wrong

direction37% 42% 49% 25% 18% 15% 19% 21%

Don’t

know/Refused12% 14% 10% 12% 7% 3% 6% 12%

Do you believe Nigeria is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?

(Disaggregated by region)

Page 7: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Do you believe Nigeria is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?

(Disaggregated by select states)

7

28%

29%

14%

9%

28%

23%

41%

8%

8%

18%

31%

31%

27%

18%

31%

22%

39%

17%

25%

24%

6%

7%

2%

14%

13%

13%

2%

13%

14%

16%

27%

29%

49%

45%

22%

33%

13%

50%

45%

29%

8%

5%

9%

14%

6%

10%

6%

13%

8%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Kaduna

Kano

Bayelsa

Rivers

Niger

FCT*

Gombe

Anambra

Abia

Lagos

Strongly right direction Not strongly right direction Not strongly wrong direction

Strongly wrong direction Don't know/Refused *Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Page 8: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Would you say that your personal economic situation has improved over the past year, stayed the same or gotten worse?

(Disaggregated by response to right direction/wrong direction question)

8

18%

31%

48%

23%

32%

32%

12%

9%

5%

37%

17%

12%

11%

11%

4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Gotten worse

Stayed the same

Improved

Strongly right direction Not strongly right direction Not strongly wrong direction

Strongly wrong direction Don't know/Refused

Page 9: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Which of the following issues do you personally believe is the most important issue facing citizens of Nigeria?

9

0%

3%

10%

13%

14%

15%

19%

26%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Infrastructure

Electricity (blackouts)

Security

Fuel scarcity

Government corruption

State of the economy (falling value of Naira)

Unemployment

Page 10: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

10

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Unemployment 24% 29% 30% 22% 20%

State of the economy

(falling value of Naira)18% 20% 18% 20% 16%

Governmental corruption 18% 12% 14% 16% 21%

Fuel scarcity 13% 15% 14% 15% 9%

Security 14% 12% 12% 15% 19%

Electricity (blackouts) 11% 9% 9% 10% 14%

Infrastructure 3% 3% 2% 3% 1%

Which of the following issues do you personally believe is the most important issue facing citizens of Nigeria?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 11: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Which of the following issues do you personally believe is the most important issue facing citizens of Nigeria?

(Disaggregated by approval of job government is doing on issue)

11

19%

15%

28%

22%

33%

22%

21%

26%

25%

30%

33%

26%

28%

26%

15%

16%

11%

15%

11%

14%

13%

34%

37%

29%

28%

28%

32%

35%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Infrastructure

Electricity (blackouts)

Security

Fuel scarcity

Government corruption

State of the economy(falling value of Naira)

Unemployment

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove

Page 12: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Would you say that your own personal economic situation has improved over the past year, stayed the same or gotten worse?

12

1%

57%

22%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Gotten worse

Stayed the same

Improved

Page 13: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

13

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Improved 23% 18% 20% 20% 24%

Stayed the same 22% 23% 23% 21% 27%

Gotten worse 55% 59% 57% 58% 48%

Don’t know/Refused 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Would you say that your own personal economic situation has improved over the past year, stayed the same or gotten worse?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 14: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

14

Would you say that your own personal economic situation has improved over the past year, stayed the same or gotten worse?

(Disaggregated by region)

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Improved 12% 10% 13% 34% 30% 18%

Stayed the same 16% 15% 34% 21% 19% 26%

Gotten worse 71% 75% 52% 44% 50% 54%

Don’t know/Refused 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Page 15: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

15

Response

Unable to

meet basic

needs

without

charity

Able to

meet basic

needs

Able to

meet basic

needs with

some non-

essential

goods

Able to

purchase

most non-

essential

goods

Plenty of

disposable

money

Improved 16% 20% 23% 33% 48%

Stayed the same 19% 24% 19% 20% 7%

Gotten worse 65% 55% 57% 47% 45%

Don’t know/Refused 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%

Would you say that your own personal economic situation has improved over the past year, stayed the same or gotten worse?

(Disaggregated by income group)

Page 16: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Would you say that your personal economic situation has improved over the past year, stayed the same or gotten worse?

(Disaggregated by select states)

16

25%

23%

6%

13%

16%

18%

56%

12%

13%

11%

22%

15%

11%

20%

27%

24%

20%

15%

11%

29%

52%

62%

83%

65%

57%

55%

24%

72%

73%

60%

1%

1%

0%

2%

1%

3%

0%

1%

2%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Kaduna

Kano

Bayelsa

Rivers

Niger

FCT*

Gombe

Anambra

Abia

Lagos

Improved Stayed the same Gotten worse Don't know/Refused

*Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Page 17: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Democracy

Page 18: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better or the

worse?

18

4%

29%

21%

46%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Yes, changed for the worse

No, unchanged

Yes, changed for the better

Page 19: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

19

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Yes, changed for the

better52% 40% 45% 48% 53%

No, unchanged 19% 23% 21% 21% 19%

Yes, changed for the

worse26% 33% 31% 28% 23%

Don’t know/Refused 3% 4% 4% 4% 6%

In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better or the worse?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 20: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better or the worse?

(Disaggregated by select states)

20

46%

50%

28%

27%

40%

34%

67%

22%

30%

34%

26%

18%

17%

23%

31%

33%

28%

16%

24%

29%

23%

28%

49%

47%

24%

32%

3%

56%

43%

34%

5%

4%

6%

3%

5%

2%

2%

7%

3%

4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Kaduna

Kano

Bayelsa

Rivers

Niger

FCT*

Gombe

Anambra

Abia

Lagos

Yes, changed for the better No, unchanged Yes, changed for the worse Don't know/Refused

*Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Page 21: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy?

21

5%

31%

6%

5%

54%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Propsperity is definitely more important to me

Properity is somewhat more important to me

Democracy is somewhat more important to me

Democracy is definitely more important to me

Page 22: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

22

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Democracy is definitely

more important to me55% 52% 51% 56% 61%

Democracy is somewhat

more important to me5% 5% 5% 4% 5%

Prosperity is somewhat

more important to me6% 6% 7% 5% 5%

Prosperity is definitely

more important to me31% 31% 33% 29% 25%

Don’t know/Refused 3% 6% 4% 5% 4%

Page 23: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

23

Response

Unable to

meet basic

needs

without

charity

Able to

meet basic

needs

Able to

meet basic

needs with

some non-

essential

goods

Able to

purchase

most non-

essential

goods

Plenty of

disposable

money

Democracy is definitely

more important to me47% 55% 55% 57% 57%

Democracy is somewhat

more important to me4% 5% 6% 1% 17%

Prosperity is somewhat

more important to me7% 6% 5% 4% 3%

Prosperity is definitely

more important to me37% 30% 30% 36% 23%

Don’t know/Refused 4% 5% 4% 2% 0%

If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy?

(Disaggregated by income group)

Page 24: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy?

(Disaggregated by region)

24

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Democracy is

definitely more

important to me

60% 62% 55% 52% 50% 47%

Democracy is

somewhat more

important to me

3% 7% 8% 5% 3% 5%

Prosperity is

somewhat more

important to me

3% 5% 7% 7% 6% 8%

Prosperity is

definitely more

important to me

28% 21% 25% 34% 39% 35%

Don’t know/Refused 6% 5% 6% 2% 3% 6%

Page 25: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Government Responsiveness

Page 26: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

How well would you say that the federal government responds to/addresses the needs and priorities of citizens?

26

4%

29%

18%

34%

15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Not well at all/not responsive

Hardly well/not very responsive

Fairly well/relatively responsive

Very well/highly responsive

Page 27: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

27

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Very well/highly

responsive17% 13% 14% 15% 27%

Fairly well/relatively

responsive36% 32% 34% 34% 31%

Hardly well/not very

responsive18% 19% 19% 18% 15%

Not well at all/not

responsive26% 31% 29% 28% 25%

Don’t know/Refused 4% 5% 4% 5% 3%

How well would you say that the federal government responds to/addresses the needs and priorities of citizens?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 28: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

28

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Very well/highly

responsive4% 4% 7% 30% 27% 11%

Fairly well/relatively

responsive26% 27% 38% 40% 35% 37%

Hardly well/not very

responsive18% 23% 25% 12% 12% 22%

Not well at all/not

responsive47% 41% 26% 18% 21% 26%

Don’t know/Refused 5% 5% 4% 2% 5% 5%

How well would you say that the federal government responds to/addresses the needs and priorities of citizens?

(Disaggregated by region)

Page 29: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

How well would you say that the federal government responds to/addresses the needs and priorities of citizens?

(Disaggregated by select states)

29

20%

18%

2%

4%

10%

9%

34%

4%

2%

6%

34%

36%

26%

20%

31%

26%

47%

22%

30%

34%

16%

14%

16%

25%

22%

18%

5%

27%

25%

26%

25%

29%

53%

46%

32%

41%

14%

41%

39%

31%

5%

4%

4%

4%

5%

6%

0%

7%

4%

4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Kaduna

Kano

Bayelsa

Rivers

Niger

FCT*

Gombe

Anambra

Abia

Lagos

Very well/highly responsive Fairly well/relatively responsive

Hardley well/not very responsive Not well at all/not responsive

Don't know/Refused *Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Page 30: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Would you say that elected officials listen to your concerns all the time, most of the time, some of the time, hardly ever or never?

30

6%

31%

21%

34%

6%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Never

Hardly ever

Some of the time

Most of the time

All the time

Page 31: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

31

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

All the time 3% 2% 3% 2% 3%

Most of the time 7% 5% 6% 6% 13%

Some of the time 33% 36% 34% 35% 31%

Hardly ever 21% 21% 22% 19% 24%

Never 32% 30% 30% 32% 24%

Don’t know/Refused 4% 7% 5% 6% 6%

Would you say that elected officials listen to your concerns all the time, most of the time, some of the time, hardly ever or never?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 32: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

32

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

All of the time 1% 2% 1% 2% 4% 3%

Most of the time 4% 4% 5% 9% 9% 6%

Some of the time 27% 37% 32% 39% 37% 32%

Hardly ever 26% 26% 25% 16% 17% 18%

Never 38% 28% 31% 29% 27% 33%

Don’t know/Refused 5% 2% 6% 5% 6% 8%

Would you say that elected officials listen to your concerns all the time, most of the time, some of the time, hardly ever or never?

(Disaggregated by region)

Page 33: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

33

Response

Unable to

meet basic

needs

without

charity

Able to

meet basic

needs

Able to

meet basic

needs with

some non-

essential

goods

Able to

purchase

most non-

essential

goods

Plenty of

disposable

money

All of the time 3% 2% 2% 3% 7%

Most of the time 5% 6% 8% 10% 7%

Some of the time 30% 36% 34% 31% 23%

Hardly ever 20% 20% 25% 20% 3%

Never 37% 31% 26% 26% 37%

Don’t know/Refused 5% 5% 5% 10% 23%

Would you say that elected officials listen to your concerns all the time, most of the time, some of the time, hardly ever or never?

(Disaggregated by income group)

Page 34: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Do you think that political parties consider citizens’ input when they are writing their policies and manifestos?

34

31%

61%

8%

Yes No Don't know/Refused

Page 35: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

35

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Yes 33% 30% 32% 30% 34%

No 61% 60% 61% 61% 56%

Don’t know/Refused 6% 10% 7% 9% 10%

Do you think that political parties consider citizens’ input when they are writing their policies and manifestos?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 36: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

36

Do you think that political parties consider citizens’ input when they are writing their policies and manifestos?

(Disaggregated by region)

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Yes 25% 35% 26% 37% 40% 24%

No 66% 59% 66% 56% 52% 67%

Don’t know/Refused 9% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9%

Page 37: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Corruption

Page 38: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Thinking about corruption in Nigeria today…would you say the level of corruption has increased from a year ago, stayed the same or decreased

from a year ago?

38

3%

53%

18%

27%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Decreased

Stayed the same

Increased

Page 39: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

39

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Increased 23% 31% 26% 27% 25%

Stayed the same 17% 19% 17% 19% 16%

Decreased 59% 46% 53% 51% 56%

Don’t know/Refused 2% 4% 3% 3% 4%

Thinking about corruption in Nigeria today…would you say the level of corruption has increased from a year ago, stayed the same or decreased

from a year ago?(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 40: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

40

Thinking about corruption in Nigeria today…would you say the level of corruption has increased from a year ago, stayed the same or decreased

from a year ago?(Disaggregated by region)

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Increased 38% 50% 30% 16% 17% 17%

Stayed the same 23% 20% 23% 10% 14% 19%

Decreased 36% 27% 44% 71% 68% 60%

Don’t know/Refused 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 4%

Page 41: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

41

Response

Unable to

meet basic

needs

without

charity

Able to

meet basic

needs

Able to

meet basic

needs with

some non-

essential

goods

Able to

purchase

most non-

essential

goods

Plenty of

disposable

money

Increased 30% 26% 27% 16% 16%

Stayed the same 15% 18% 19% 18% 13%

Decreased 51% 53% 51% 65% 71%

Don’t know/Refused 4% 3% 3% 2% 0%

Thinking about corruption in Nigeria today…would you say the level of corruption has increased from a year ago, stayed the same or decreased

from a year ago?(Disaggregated by income group)

Page 42: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Thinking about corruption in Nigeria today…would you say the level of corruption has increased from a year ago, stayed the same or decreased

from a year ago?(Disaggregated by select states)

42

23%

25%

48%

39%

18%

25%

16%

56%

52%

29%

21%

14%

19%

24%

22%

25%

11%

19%

17%

29%

55%

58%

30%

34%

54%

48%

67%

22%

25%

39%

2%

3%

3%

3%

6%

2%

6%

3%

6%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Kaduna

Kano

Bayelsa

Rivers

Niger

FCT*

Gombe

Anambra

Abia

Lagos

Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don't know/Refused

*Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Page 43: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Elections

Page 44: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Did you vote in the 2015 national elections?

44

75%

23%

1% 1%

Yes No Not registered/Not old enough Don't know/Refused

Page 45: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

45

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Yes 82% 67% 69% 83% 87%

No 17% 30% 29% 16% 12%

Not registered/Not old

enough to vote1% 2% 1% 1% 2%

Don’t know/Refused <1% 2% 1% 1% 0%

Did you vote in the 2015 national elections?(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 46: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

46

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Yes 67% 75% 70% 82% 82% 73%

No 30% 23% 27% 18% 17% 26%

Not registered/Not

old enough to vote2% <1% 2% 1% 1% 1%

Don’t know/Refused 1% 2% 1% <1% 1% 1%

Did you vote in the 2015 national elections?(Disaggregated by region)

Page 47: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

47

Response

Unable to

meet basic

needs

without

charity

Able to

meet basic

needs

Able to

meet basic

needs with

some non-

essential

goods

Able to

purchase

most non-

essential

goods

Plenty of

disposable

money

Yes 77% 75% 74% 80% 74%

No 22% 23% 24% 17% 26%

Not registered voter/Not

old enough to vote1% 1% 2% 3% 0%

Don’t know/Refused 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%

Did you vote in the 2015 national elections?(Disaggregated by income group)

Page 48: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

IF YES – What encouraged you to participate in the 2015 national elections?N=5,927

48

1%

4%

1%

2%

2%

5%

37%

49%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Other

The accreditation process

The continuous voter registration system

Use of smart card readers

Use of permanent voter cards

It was an important election

It was my responsibility as a citizen

I wanted a change of government

<1%

Page 49: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

49

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

I wanted a change of

government49% 48% 50% 48% 35%

It was my responsibility

as a citizen36% 38% 35% 38% 45%

It was an important

election6% 5% 5% 5% 9%

The continuous voter

registration system1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Use of permanent voter

cards2% 2% 2% 1% 4%

Use of smart card

readers2% 2% 2% 2% 1%

The accreditation

process1% <1% <1% <1% 1%

Others 4% 4% 5% 4% 4%

Don’t know/Refused <1% 1% 4% 1% <1%

IF YES – What encouraged you to participate in the 2015 national elections?N=5,927

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 50: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

50

Response Lagos Abia Anambra Gombe FCT* Niger Rivers Bayelsa Kano Kaduna

I wanted a change of

government42% 31% 29% 41% 47% 45% 26% 27% 48% 52%

It was my responsibility

as a citizen45% 52% 54% 38% 37% 31% 59% 49% 32% 34%

It was an important

election6% 12% 9% 11% 4% 10% 6% 13% 8% 3%

The continuous voter

registration system<1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% 3% 2% 1% 2%

Use of permanent voter

cards3% 0% 1% 2% 4% 0% 1% 5% 2% <1%

Use of smart card readers 1% 2% 1% 2% 0% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2%

The accreditation process <1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% <1% 1%

Others 3% 1% 4% 3% 7% 9% 5% 3% 8% 7%

Don’t know/Refused 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% <1% <1%

IF YES – What encouraged you to participate in the 2015 national elections?N=5,927

(Disaggregated by select states)

*Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Page 51: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Thinking back to the time before the 2015 election process started, would you say that your confidence in the Independent National

Electoral Commission (INEC) has gotten better, stayed the same or gotten worse?

51

9%

21%

14%

56%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Gotten worse

Stayed the same

Gotten better

Page 52: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

52

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Improved 58% 53% 56% 56% 61%

Stayed the same 13% 15% 15% 14% 12%

Gotten worse 22% 21% 21% 22% 17%

Don’t know/Refused 7% 11% 9% 9% 11%

Thinking back to the time before the 2015 election process started, would you say that your confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission

(INEC) has gotten better, stayed the same or gotten worse?(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 53: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Thinking back to the time before the 2015 election process started, would you say that your confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission

(INEC) has gotten better, stayed the same or gotten worse?(Disaggregated by region)

53

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Gotten better 33% 31% 56% 77% 67% 60%

Stayed the same 19% 21% 17% 7% 10% 15%

Gotten worse 32% 39% 19% 11% 17% 16%

Don’t know/Refused 16% 9% 9% 5% 6% 10%

Page 54: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Would you say that Nigeria was very prepared, somewhat prepared, not too prepared or not prepared at all for the general elections

in March 2015?

54

3%

4%

9%

18%

66%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Don't know/Refused

Not prepared at all

Not too prepared

Somewhat prepared

Very prepared

Page 55: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next election?

55

2%

10%

5%

15%

68%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Don't know/Refused

Very unlikely

Somewhat unlikely

Somewhat likely

Very likely

Page 56: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

56

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Very likely 72% 63% 66% 71% 69%

Somewhat likely 13% 17% 16% 14% 16%

Somewhat unlikely 4% 7% 6% 5% 4%

Very unlikely 9% 11% 11% 9% 8%

Don’t know/Refused 2% 3% 2% 3% 3%

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next election?(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 57: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next election?(Disaggregated by region)

57

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Very likely 53% 62% 60% 83% 76% 68%

Somewhat likely 19% 13% 20% 10% 12% 15%

Somewhat unlikely 6% 7% 8% 3% 4% 5%

Very unlikely 19% 15% 9% 4% 6% 9%

Don’t know/Refused 3% 3% 3% 1% 2% 4%

Page 58: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Would you say that arrangements made to assist people with disabilities in voting on Election Day were very good, good, adequate, not too good,

not good at all or non-existent?

58

21%

26%

8%

7%

12%

16%

11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Non-existent

Not good at all

Not too good

Adequate

Good

Very good

Page 59: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Did you or any member of your family require any sort of disability support in this regard during the election?

59

16%

80%

4%

Yes No Don't know/Refused

Page 60: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Women and Youth Issues

Page 61: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman,

which candidate are you more likely to support?

61

2%

37%

25%

36%

Don't know/Refused

Makes no difference to me

Woman

Man

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Page 62: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman,

which candidate are you more likely to support?(Disaggregated by gender and age)

62

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Man 44% 28% 39% 33% 36%

Woman 14% 36% 25% 24% 18%

Makes no difference to me 41% 33% 33% 41% 42%

Don’t know/Refused 2% 3% 2% 2% 3%

Page 63: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

63

If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman,

which candidate are you more likely to support?(Disaggregated by region)

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Man 27% 27% 30% 49% 44% 37%

Woman 26% 28% 27% 21% 22% 24%

Makes no difference

to me44% 43% 40% 28% 32% 38%

Don’t know/Refused 3% 1% 3% 2% 3% 2%

Page 64: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women.

64

58%

35%

7%

Agree Disagree Don't know/Refused

Page 65: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women.

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

65

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Agree 55% 62% 60% 57% 50%

Disagree 38% 31% 34% 36% 43%

Don’t know/Refused 6% 8% 6% 8% 8%

Page 66: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

66

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women.

(Disaggregated by region)

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Agree 58% 55% 58% 59% 57% 63%

Disagree 34% 39% 34% 35% 37% 29%

Don’t know/Refused 8% 6% 9% 6% 6% 8%

Page 67: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of young people.

67

58%

35%

7%

Agree Disagree Don't know/Refused

Page 68: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of young people.

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

68

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Agree 58% 58% 59% 57% 49%

Disagree 37% 34% 34% 37% 42%

Don’t know/Refused 6% 9% 6% 7% 9%

Page 69: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Sources of Information

Page 70: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Which is the most effective way for elected officials to communicate with you?

70

4%

1%

5%

7%

10%

20%

27%

28%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Private visits

Constituency offices

Public events (rallies, campaigns, ceremonies,etc.)

Personal correspondence (letters, emails, socialmedia, texts, etc.)

Traditional media (newspapers, radio, tv)

Town hall meetings

Page 71: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

71

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Town hall meetings 30% 25% 24% 32% 38%

Traditional media

(newspapers, radio, TV)24% 31% 29% 26% 21%

Personal correspondence

(letters, emails, social

media, text, etc.)

18% 21% 22% 16% 15%

Public events (rallies.

Campaigns, ceremonies,

etc.)

10% 10% 10% 9% 11%

Constituency offices 9% 5% 6% 8% 7%

Private visits 5% 4% 5% 5% 5%

Others 1% <1% <1% 1% <1%

Don’t know/Refused 3% 4% 3% 4% 4%

Which is the most effective way for elected officials to communicate with you?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 72: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

72

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Town hall meetings 34% 33% 28% 19% 23% 32%

Traditional media

(newspapers, radio,

TV)26% 27% 26% 39% 27% 21%

Personal

correspondence

(letters, emails, social

media, text, etc.)

22% 14% 21% 20% 20% 18%

Public events (rallies.

Campaigns,

ceremonies, etc.)8% 12% 10% 6% 11% 12%

Constituency offices 3% 6% 5% 11% 9% 7%

Private visits 3% 4% 5% 3% 7% 4%

Others <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1%

Don’t know/Refused 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 5%

Which is the most effective way for elected officials to communicate with you?(Disaggregated by region)

Page 73: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

How would you like to receive information about politics and political parties?

73

2%

1%

9%

13%

21%

25%

30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Newspapers

SMS messaging

Social media (Facebook, Twitter, etc.)

Radio

Television

Page 74: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

74

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Television 26% 34% 31% 30% 24%

Radio 27% 23% 21% 28% 39%

Social media (Facebook,

Twitter, etc.)22% 19% 24% 16% 11%

SMS Messaging 13% 13% 14% 12% 11%

Newspapers 10% 7% 8% 9% 11%

Others 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%

Don’t know/Refused 2% 3% 2% 2% 4%

How would you like to receive information about politics and political parties?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 75: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

75

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Television 36% 33% 33% 23% 23% 36%

Radio 14% 19% 20% 37% 36% 16%

Social media

(Facebook, Twitter,

etc.)

20% 15% 21% 22% 20% 25%

SMS Messaging 14% 16% 14% 10% 10% 14%

Newspapers 10% 12% 8% 6% 9% 7%

Others 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%

Don’t know/Refused 4% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2%

How would you like to receive information about politics and political parties?

(Disaggregated by region)

Page 76: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

During the 2015 elections, what was the most useful source of information about the campaigns, election proceedings and results?

76

1%

5%

6%

17%

71%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Public advertisements (posters, handbills, etc.)

Word of mouth

Social media (Facebook, Twitter, tec.)

Traditional media (newspapers, radio, tv)

<1%

Page 77: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

77

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Traditional media

(newspapers, radio and

TV)

69% 72% 67% 75% 77%

Social media (Facebook,

Twitter, etc.)19% 15% 21% 13% 8%

Word of mouth 6% 6% 5% 6% 7%

Public advertisements

(posters, handbills, etc.)5% 6% 6% 5% 5%

Others <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%

Don’t know/Refused 1% 1% 1% 1% 3%

During the 2015 elections, what was the most useful source of information about the campaigns, election proceedings and results?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 78: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

78

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Traditional media

(newspapers, radio

and TV)

69% 66% 66% 72% 75% 72%

Social media

(Facebook, Twitter,

etc.)

16% 17% 18% 19% 15% 19%

Word of mouth 6% 7% 6% 5% 6% 6%

Public

advertisements

(posters, handbills,

etc.)

8% 8% 9% 3% 3% 3%

Others <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1%

Don’t know/Refused 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%

During the 2015 elections, what was the most useful source of information about the campaigns, election proceedings and results?

(Disaggregated by region)

Page 79: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Safety and Security

Page 80: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

How safe do you feel here in [YOUR COMMUNITY]? Do you feel very safe, fairly safe, not very safe or not safe at all?

80

9%

11%

24%

57%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Not safe at all

Not very safe

Fairly safe

Very safe

<1%

Page 81: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

81

Response Male Female 18-35 36-60 61+

Very safe60% 54% 57% 56% 60%

Fairly safe 22% 26% 23% 24% 22%

Not very safe 10% 11% 11% 10% 12%

Not safe at all 8% 9% 8% 9% 6%

Don’t know/Refused 1% <1% <1% 1% <1%

How safe do you feel here in [YOUR COMMUNITY]? Do you feel very safe, fairly safe, not very safe or not safe at all?

(Disaggregated by gender and age)

Page 82: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

82

Response South-

South

South-

East

South-

West

North-

East

North-

West

North-

Central

Very safe 45% 42% 54% 68% 70% 56%

Fairly safe 27% 26% 28% 22% 17% 26%

Not very safe 14% 19% 11% 5% 6% 11%

Not safe at all 14% 13% 6% 6% 7% 7%

Don’t know/Refused <1% 1% 1% <1% 1% <1%

How safe do you feel here in [YOUR COMMUNITY]? Do you feel very safe, fairly safe, not very safe or not safe at all?

(Disaggregated by region)

Page 83: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

How safe do you feel here in (YOUR COMMUNITY)? Do you feel very safe, fairly safe, not very safe or not safe at all?

(Disaggregated by select states)

83

61%

64%

32%

37%

59%

55%

69%

53%

32%

44%

19%

22%

33%

25%

28%

22%

24%

22%

34%

32%

12%

8%

18%

21%

8%

15%

1%

18%

19%

14%

8%

6%

17%

16%

4%

8%

6%

8%

15%

9%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Kaduna

Kano

Bayelsa

Rivers

Niger

FCT*

Gombe

Anambra

Abia

Lagos

Very safe Fairly safe Not very safe Not safe at all Don't know/Refused

*Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Page 84: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Demographics

Page 85: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

Demographics

85

Gender

Male 51%

Female 49%

Age

18-35 55%

36-60 39%

61+ 4%

Don’t know/Refused 2%

Political Zone

South South 15%

South East 12%

South West 19%

North East 13%

North West 25%

North Central 16%

Monthly Household Income

Unable to meet basic needs without charity 15%

Able to meet basic needs 56%

Able to meet basic needs with some non-essential goods 23%

Able to purchase most non-essential goods 2%

Plenty of disposable money <1%

Don’t know/Refused 4%

Page 86: National Survey of Nigerian Public Opinion...In your opinion has the condition of democracy in Nigeria changed since the 2015 national elections? If yes, has it changed for the better

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