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National Survey of Mongolian Public Opinion
March 1-15, 2016
The Government of Canada
Detailed Methodology
2
• The survey was conducted by Social Policy Development Research Institute (SPDRI) under thesupervision of Mr. Robert Carpenter of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International RepublicanInstitute between March 1 - March 15, 2016.
• Data was collected using in-person, in-home interviews. The sample was stratified by 13 of Mongolia’s21 aimags and Ulaanbaatar and then by soum or district. Interviews were conducted in both urban andrural locations.
• The sample consisted of 5,000 respondents (response rate: 95.24 percent) aged 18 and older, and wasrepresentative of voting-age adults nationally.
• The sample was distributed among 13 aimags and Ulaanbaatar. Within each of the selected 13 aimagsoutside of Ulaanbaatar, 2,800 interviews were conducted in three randomly selected soums. Districtswere randomly selected in Ulaanbaatar, where 2,200 interviews were conducted. The total number ofinterviews to conduct within an aimag was determined utilizing voter registration information from the2013 presidential election.
• After identifying a centrally located starting point, a skip pattern was used to select appropriatehouseholds. Within each household, the Kish Grid was then used to select respondents 18 years andolder.
• Interview teams were comprised of both males and females.
• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 1.4 percent at the mid-range with a confidencelevel of 95 percent.
• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for marketand social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due torounding.
Indicators
Overall, do you think Mongolia is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
4
21%19%
38%
61%
36%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
November 2011 March 2016
Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/Refused
Why do you say right direction? (Open-ended, n=925)
5
2%
5%
12%
16%
24%
41%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Other
Expanded opportunities
Infrastructure development
Effective policies
General positive feeling
Why do you say wrong direction? (open-ended, n=3,030)
6
1%
6%
9%
23%
25%
36%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Other
General negative feeling
Inadequate governance
Overreliance on foreign countriesfor development
Economic instability
Overall, how would you rate the current economic conditions in Mongolia?
7
2%
35%
57%
5%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Don't know/Refused
Very bad
Bad
Good
Very good
Thinking about the personal economic situation of you and your family, over the past year has it gotten better, worse or is it about the same?
8
2%
37%
56%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Don't know/Refused
Same
Worse
Better
Thinking some more about your personal economic situation, in the coming year do you think that it is going to get better, worse
or stay about the same?
9
22%
27%
14%
36%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Same
Worse
Better
10
Thinking some more about your personal economic situation, in the coming year do you think that it is going to get better, worse
or stay about the same?(disaggregated by gender)
36%
15%
44%
66%
20%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Male
Female
Better Worse Same
Do you expect the price of basic commodities such as milk, bread and meat to be higher or lower one year from now?
11
14%
1%
7%
17%
45%
16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Much lower
Slightly lower
Same
Slightly higher
Much higher
Top Issues
What are the three most important problems facing Mongolia?(open-ended)
13
Response First Second Third
Unemployment 48% 13% 7%
Poverty 16% 25% 8%
Corruption 8% 11% 13%
Price Inflation 6% 8% 9%
Economy 5% 6% 10%
Political conflict/Tension 4% 5% 6%
Alcoholism 3% 7% 8%
Pollution/Environmental issues 2% 4% 5%
Foreign loan repayment 2% 3% 10%
Crime/Security 1% 2% 3%
Who should primarily control the mining of natural resources in Mongolia?
14
10%
9%
37%
44%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
National government
Provincial government
Private companies under government contract
Overall, do you think the level of regulation on mining in Mongolia is too strict, too lax or about right?
15
16%
13%
68%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Don't know/Refused
About right
Too lax
Too strict
Now I am going to ask you your level of agreement or disagreement to various statements or your position on various issues.
16
24%
36%
38%
40%
51%
29%
34%
36%
31%
33%
20%
15%
14%
14%
8%
16%
7%
6%
8%
3%
11%
8%
6%
7%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
The best way for Mongolia to reduceunemployment is to attract foreign investment
Increasing public funding for education willdecrease poverty
Building roads leads to development whichreduces poverty
Mongolia should impose a tax on agricultureincome for large landowners
My province should be given a proportionalshare of revenue from natural resources toaddress the problems affecting the province
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused
Approval Ratings
Thinking now about the following institutions/individuals, would you say you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing?
18
3%
3%
4%
4%
5%
6%
6%
9%
10%
10%
11%
19%
21%
27%
21%
25%
32%
25%
25%
32%
28%
36%
36%
39%
42%
52%
54%
49%
39%
36%
39%
40%
37%
26%
34%
24%
29%
25%
21%
16%
14%
11%
27%
21%
18%
21%
22%
17%
23%
13%
16%
13%
11%
7%
5%
5%
11%
15%
7%
9%
11%
19%
9%
19%
9%
13%
16%
6%
7%
9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Political Parties
General Electoral Commission
State Great Hural
Prime Minister
Speaker of Parliament
Opposition parties in government
President
The Supreme Court
Aimag Government
Civil Society Organizations
Police
The Media
Army
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused
Independent Authority Against Corruption
Has the national government done a very good job, a good job, a poor job or a very poor job addressing the following issues?
19
3%
3%
4%
5%
8%
9%
11%
13%
18%
13%
27%
32%
44%
44%
47%
57%
40%
39%
37%
42%
31%
32%
26%
20%
27%
23%
22%
15%
11%
11%
10%
6%
11%
23%
10%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Addressing domestic violence
Advancing democratic reforms
Protecting land rights
Improving education
Providing access to clean water
Creating affordable housing
Providing access to electricity
Very good Good Poor Very poor Don't know/Refused
Developing roads, highways, and bridges
Has the national government done a very good job, a good job, a poor job or a very poor job addressing the following issues.
20
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
3%
6%
6%
4%
6%
7%
16%
17%
23%
25%
41%
27%
16%
48%
39%
40%
42%
46%
46%
48%
58%
18%
40%
44%
18%
32%
24%
21%
4%
8%
60%
4%
9%
24%
6%
5%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Reducing poverty
Addressing air pollution
Supporting LGBT rights
Addressing unemployment
Improving the economy
Advancing gender equality
Combating corruption
Delivering quality healthcare
Fighting crime
Very good Good Poor Very poor Don't know/Refused
Women and Youth
Agree or Disagree?Women are equally represented in political decision-making
positions in Mongolia.
22
13%
16%
32%
27%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one
is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support?
23
6%
39%
35%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Makes no difference to me
Woman
Man
24
If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one
is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support?(disaggregated by gender)
26%
14%
25%
44%
43%
36%
6%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Male
Female
Man Woman Makes no difference to me Don't know/Refused
Agree or Disagree?Political parties should be doing more to promote women to
positions of political leadership.
25
16%
6%
13%
39%
27%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Agree or Disagree?Political parties should be doing more to nominate and support women
candidates for elected office.
26
15%
5%
13%
39%
28%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Agree or Disagree?Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women.
27
13%
7%
21%
40%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Agree or Disagree?Women should be primarily responsible for taking care of the
house and children.
28
3%
6%
15%
32%
44%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Agree or Disagree?Domestic violence is a problem in Mongolia.
29
7%
3%
10%
32%
48%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Would you say that you know a great deal, some, not too much or nothing at all about the Mongolian Parliamentary Women’s Caucus?
30
11%
21%
40%
23%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Nothing at all
Not too much
Some
A great deal
Agree or Disagree?Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of young people.
31
8%
5%
14%
38%
35%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Elections
Do you trust the current electronic voting system or black machine to accurately record your vote?
33
8%
23%
31%
24%
14%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Not at all
Not too much
Somewhat
A great deal
Agree or Disagree?When voting at my polling station on Election Day, I am confident
that my secret ballot is held confidential.
34
12%
12%
24%
33%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Thinking now about elections, did you vote in the 2012 parliamentary election?
35
78%
19%
3%
Yes No Don't know/Refused
If yes, who did you vote for?(n=3,873)
36
Response* Percent
Democratic Party 45%
Mongolian People’s Party 25%
Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party 9%
Independent candidate 5%
Don’t remember 7%
Don’t know/Refused 9%
*Parties that received less than 1% of responses were omitted from this table
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next parliamentary elections?
37
5%
6%
8%
27%
55%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Don't know/Refused
Very unlikely
Somewhat unlikely
Somewhat likely
Very likely
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next parliamentary elections?
(Disaggregated by age and gender)
38
Response Male Female 18-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61+
Very likely 54% 55% 49% 55% 56% 61% 65%
Somewhat likely 28% 27% 29% 27% 28% 25% 20%
Somewhat unlikely 7% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7%
Very unlikely 6% 6% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5%
Don’t know/Refused 5% 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% 3%
In the past year, the Prime Minister has faced a vote of no confidence. One vote was successful, resulting in the former Prime Minister stepping down. Recently
another vote of no confidence was held, which the current Prime Minister narrowly survived. Following the elections in June, do you expect the national government of Mongolia to be less stable, more stable or remain as it is now?
39
29%
18%
34%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Less stable
Remain as it is now
More stable
Agree or Disagree?Political parties should be active following elections to encourage
citizen participation in Mongolia’s democratic processes.
40
10%
5%
11%
30%
44%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Corruption
Do you believe that corruption is a major problem, a minor problem, not much of a problem or not a problem at all?
42
8%
1%
3%
13%
75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Don't know/Refused
Not a problem at all
Not much of a problem
A minor problem
A major problem
When you think of corruption, what is an example that comes to mind?
(Open-ended)
43
Response Percent
Respondent mentioned a specific person’s name 19%
All officials both at junior and senior positions are corrupt 7%
Illegal payments and petty bribes 6%
Corruption in the education sector by teachers and principals 6%
Corruption cases against senior politicians and government officials 5%
Corruption in the health sector through illegal doctor payments 4%
Corruption in law enforcement (police, courts, prosecutors) 3%
Government organizations that control and approve land registration 3%
Mining: Oyu tolgoi, Tavan tolgoi* 1%
Don’t know/Refused 43%
*Names of specific Mongolian mines
Is the national government taking adequate steps to combat corruption?
44
16%
61%
23%
Yes No Don't know/Refused
Agree or Disagree?Officials who commit corruption abuses are adequately punished.
45
10%
34%
32%
15%
8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Agree or Disagree?Political party campaign finance is transparent and honestly reported.
46
10%
36%
32%
13%
8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Has a political party ever offered you a bribe in exchange for a vote
or support?
47
15%
77%
8%
Yes No Don't know/Refused
17%
75%
8%
Yes No Don't know/Refused
Has a candidate ever offered you a bribe in exchange for a vote or
support?
Agree or Disagree?Laws are enforced fairly by:
48
4%
4%
6%
7%
9%
10%
13%
16%
23%
24%
34%
33%
37%
39%
45%
45%
36%
35%
34%
27%
27%
27%
19%
25%
20%
20%
15%
12%
11%
11%
7%
9%
16%
18%
11%
21%
18%
12%
16%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
State Great Hural
General Election Commission
Ministry of Justice
State Prosecutors
Judges
Immigration Office
Police
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused
Independent Authority Against Corruption
Perceptions of Democracy
Agree or Disagree?Voting gives me a chance to influence decision-making in the country.
50
9%
10%
16%
35%
31%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
In Mongolia, if you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a
prosperous economy?
51
11%
31%
18%
14%
27%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Prosperity is somewhat more important to me
Prosperity is definitely more important to me
Democracy is somewhat more important to me
Democracy is definitely more important to me
International Relations
Would you say that you had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following countries?
53
2%
3%
3%
5%
6%
7%
9%
10%
10%
12%
12%
20%
21%
39%
18%
19%
22%
33%
35%
33%
49%
31%
43%
38%
44%
51%
52%
51%
20%
33%
22%
21%
20%
17%
20%
33%
13%
14%
12%
9%
9%
4%
6%
20%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
20%
3%
4%
4%
3%
2%
55%
24%
47%
35%
34%
38%
17%
7%
31%
32%
29%
17%
15%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Myanmar
North Korea
Kyrgyzstan
Turkey
India
Kazakhstan
South Korea
China
United Kingdom
Canada
Germany
United States
Japan
Russia
Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Strongly unfavorable Don't know/Refused
1%
Which foreign country is the greatest economic partner with Mongolia?
54
14%
1%
2%
5%
35%
43%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Canada
South Korea
United States
Japan
Russia
China
<1%
Which foreign country would you prefer to be the greatest economic partner with Mongolia?
55
15%
1%
1%
2%
3%
5%
12%
13%
46%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Canada
United Kingdom
South Korea
Germany
China
Japan
United States
Russia
Overall, does the presence of foreign migrant workers* present a benefit or a threat to Mongolia?
56
14%
78%
9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Don't know/Refused
Threat
Benefit
*Workers engaged in physical labor
Media
Where do you get most of your information related to candidates and political parties?
58
4%
4%
8%
8%
19%
49%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Social media
Family members
Internet
TV, radio and newspapers
Political party manifestos or candidate platforms
8%
4%
5%
12%
26%
34%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Internet
Party leader
Family members
TV, radio and newspapers
What or who influences your voting decision the most?Political party manifestos or
candidate platforms
From which type of media are you most likely to get your news?
59
2%
1%
1%
2%
6%
12%
77%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Don't know/Refused
Other
Radio
Newspapers
Social media
Internet
TV
For those answering TV, which TV station do you most often watch?
(n=3,835, open-ended)
60
2%
13%
2%
2%
3%
3%
3%
5%
7%
15%
46%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't know/Refused
Other
C1
UBS
MN25
TV5
Education
Eagle
Mongol HD
TV9
Mongolian National broadcast
Where do you most often access the Internet?
61
4%
1%
2%
10%
22%
25%
36%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused
Other
Internet café
Office
I do not use the Internet
Home
Mobile device (smart phone)
Which specific medium do you trust most for your political news?
(open-ended)
62
28%
1%
1%
3%
3%
63%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Don't know/Refused
Radio
Social media
Yellow newspapers
Internet
Daily newspapers
TV
<1%
In general, which of the following most influences your views of candidates and political parties?
63
Response Percent
Meeting with politicians 48%
Television ads 23%
Meeting with/Opinions of respected people 15%
Newspaper articles 3%
Visits of candidate or party representative to your house 1%
Personal letters to you from the candidate 1%
Paid ads in newspapers for the candidate or political party 1%
Brochures/Pamphlets 1%
Demographics
64
GenderFemale 52%Male 48%
Age18-30 32%31-40 27%41-50 20%51-60 13%61+ 8%
Monthly Income*0-300,000 MNT 14%300,001-500,000 MNT 23%500,001-700,000 MNT 14%700,001-900,000 MNT 12%900,001-1,100,000 MNT 7%1,100,001-1,600,000 MNT 6%1,600,001-2,100,000 MNT 1%2,100,001+ MNT 1%
EducationNo formal schooling 1%Primary 2%Partial secondary 9%Full secondary 35%Vocational 12%College/University 40%
Employment StatusFull-time worker 31%Self-employed 21%Unemployed 15%Contract worker 11%Retired 11%Student 7%Disabled 2%Seasonal work 1%
OccupationLaborer 12%Service sector 11%Professional 8%Small business 8%Government 6%Housewife/husband 6%Teacher 4%Factory 3%Clerical 3%Medicine/Healthcare 2%Herder 2%Employer (6 or more) 2%
ReligionBuddhism 51%Not religious 25%Shamanism 10%Islam 4%Christianity 4%Other 1%
Political Party AffiliationUnaffiliated 66%Democratic Party 13%Mongolian People’s Party 10%Mongolian People’s
Revolutionary Party 5%Civil Will-Green Party 1%National Labor Party 1%
Marital StatusMarried 69%Single 21%Widowed 4%Divorced 2%Partnered 2%
AimagUlaanbaatar 43%Aimag Center 45%Rural 11%
*MNT means Mongolian National Tugrik, the official currency of Mongolia.
