National Journal Presentation Credits

The Outlook for 2014By Josh Kraushaar, Political Editor

Updated October 28, 2014

Contributor: Josh KraushaarProducers: Catherine Treyz, Chris Danello, and David StaufferDirector: Jessica Guzik

Possible gain of 5-10 seats

Majority control

In the House

•Odds are that the House will remain stable

•Possible Republican gain of 5-10 seats

Possible gain of

6+ seats

Majority control

Odds Favor GOPProjected Party Composition Shifts

2

In the Senate

•Odds are roughly 75% for a Republican takeover of the Senate

•Republicans are likely to net 6 to 9 seats, and a wave is looking increasingly likely

•Many races will swing together, e.g. if Sen. Hagan (D-NC) loses, difficult to see Sen. Landrieu (D-LA) or Sen. Pryor (D-AR) winning

•If Republicans are able to win three of four toss-up races in IA, CO, NC and NH, it will be a big night for the GOP

Factors At Play In Midterm Elections

National Mood Economy

• Economy is improving, but slowly• Right track/wrong

track measures are very unfavorable for party in power

• President Obama’s approval is <45% nationally• Even lower (sub

40%) in major Senate battlegrounds• Republicans hold

a polling edge on most major issues (economy, foreign policy)• Democrats still

hold an advantage on social issues

• Republicans are using the ACA website rollout and Ebola as responses to government mismanagement

• Following the administration’s response to ISIS, approval of Obama’s foreign policy is at an all-time low• Republicans hold

an 18-point edge on foreign policy issues

Health Care Foreign Policy

Big-Picture Political Environment Will Shape Races

3

Most Senate Battlegrounds Voted for Romney2012 Popular Election Results in

Senate Battleground States

Analysis•Of the Democrat-held Senate battleground states, five are in states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012•Four of those five states were carried by double-digits (AK, AR, LA, SD)

Obama won

Romney won

2012 Presidential Elections Popular Vote

Results

Dem-held Senate seat

Republican-held Senate seat

Party Currently Holding Senate Seat

4

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

VT

NH

MARICT

NJ

DEMD

DC

GA

HI

AK

Mark Pryor (D)Current Position:

U.S. Senator

Tom Cotton (R)Current Position:

U.S. Rep, 4th District

Helping

+ Pryor name remains famous within the state; Pryor was unopposed in 2008

+ Pryor has been benefitted by appearances from former President Bill Clinton

+ One of the strongest GOP recruits, able to unite Tea Party and establishment bases

+ Strong background as Iraq War veteran in light of foreign policy crises

Hurting

• Arkansas has grown extremely red since 2008

• Considered most vulnerable Senate Democrat

• Only a freshman Congressman

AR

Arkansas Proof of Changing Political Landscape

Analysis

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

5

The Arkansas race shows how much the political landscape has changed since

2008: Pryor ran unopposed then, and

is now the most vulnerable Democrat

Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates

Mary Landrieu (D)

Current Position: U.S. Senator

Bill Cassidy (R)Current Position:

U.S. Rep, 6th District

Helping

• One of most battle-tested Democratic Senators

• Energy Committee gavel will help fundraising, political positioning

• Pres. Obama’s approval remains low in Louisiana

• Election system means race could be determined by low-turnout Dec. runoff

Hurting

• Needs more African American turnout than many Dem Senators

• Has to thread needle between exciting her base and winning enough moderate whites

• Generic (not very dynamic) Member of Congress

• Faces crowded GOP field to right

If neither Landrieu nor Cassidy break 50% on election day, a runoff

will determine the outcome—potentially

with control of the Senate at stake

LA

Louisiana Likely to Head to Runoff

Analysis

- -

- -

+

+ +

+

6

Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates

North Carolina is Tale of Two Electorates

Kay Hagan (D)

Current Position: U.S.

Senator

Thom Tillis (R) Current

Position: NC State Assembly

Speaker

Helping

• North Carolina changing demographically in the Ds favor

• Strong support from women voters

• Midterm electorate more conservative

• Comfortably prevailed in primary, with help from establishment groups

Hurting

• Hagan missed ISIS hearings

• Groups that fueled Dem comeback in state (college students, African-Americans) don’t show up for midterms as much

• Tillis is leader of conservative and unpopular state legislature, attacked for state education budget

The bellwether race of the year. North

Carolina is changing demographically in

Democrats’ favor, but the midterm

electorate is more conservative.

NC

Analysis

++

+

-

- -

7

Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates

+

Alaska is Quirky and Unpredictable

Helping

• State’s unpredictability means Begich is most likely Senator to swing against national tide

• Hard for Ds to win state; Begich only beat scandal-plagued Ted Stevens by 1 point in 2008

• Compelling nominee, former attorney general and military veteran

Hurting

• Begich’s fundraising is down, possible sign of tepid support

• Pres. Obama remains unpopular in Alaska, so Begich has to walk a tough line

• Democrats have a larger ground operation in the state

Alaska’s independent-minded streak means that Begich may be less vulnerable to national electoral

trends

Mark Begich (D)Current Position: U.S. Senator

Dan Sullivan (R)Most Recent Position: Alaska Natural Resources Commissioner

Analysis+ +

+

-

-

-

8

Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates

AK

AK

9

Three Likely GOP Pickups of Open Seats

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

VT

NH

MARICT

NJ

DEMD

DC

GA

HI

West Virginia•Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) retiring•State where Obama is least popular•Features one of the strongest Republican recruits in Rep. Shelley Moore-Capito (R)

2012 Popular Election Results in Key Open Seats

South Dakota•Sen. Tim Johnson (D) retiring•State with few credible Democratic candidates•Former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) the GOP nominee; race has two independent candidates on the ballot

Montana•Appointed Sen. John Walsh (D) dropped out of the race following plagiarism charges, was replaced by State Rep. Amanda Curtis (D)•Republicans have strong candidate in Rep. Steve Daines (R)

Obama won

Romney won

2012 Presidential Elections Popular Vote

Results

Dem-held Senate seat

Republican-held Senate seat

Party Currently Holding Senate Seat

10

Three Battlegrounds in Democratic-Held Seats

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

VT

NH

MARICT

NJ

DEMD

DC

GA

AK

HI

New Hampshire•The race is closing fast; the state tends to bend with the national mood•Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown is fighting a label as a carpetbagger•The race has one of the highest gender gaps in the nation•Brown is blowing up on hot-button news issues (ISIS, Ebola) and has been benefitted by large amounts of outside spending

2012 Popular Election Results in Democratic Open Seat Battlegrounds

Obama won

Romney won

2012 Presidential Elections Popular Vote

Results

Dem-held Senate seat

Republican-held Senate seat

Party Currently Holding Senate Seat

Iowa •Rep. Bruce Braley’s (D) “trial lawyer” gaffe costly; he has been considered the Dems’ worst candidate of the cycle•State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is a very credible challenger, conservative but charismatic

AK

Colorado•Sen. Mark Udall (D) has focused heavily on social issues throughout the race•Anger at Obama in the state has intensified heavily•Rep. Cory Gardner (R) is considered the best recruit of the year for Republicans

Republicans Face Weaknesses on Conservative Turf

In Kentucky, Poor Polling Threatens

McConnell

In Georgia, Black Turnout Could Tip Scales Towards

Democrats

• Roberts has been hit from the center and right in the race; he had to move far to the right to survive a primary challenge from Tea Party candidate Milton Wolf (R), and now is struggling to move to the center in a general election

• The Democratic candidate in the race dropped out, leaving Roberts in a one-on-one matchup against self-financing venture capitalist Greg Orman (I)

• It is unclear whom Orman will caucus with if he wins the election

• McConnell has overcome nagging unpopularity, but is still unloved in his home state; this could lead to the possibility, albeit unlikely, that Republicans could win the Senate while McConnell loses

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) is benefiting from her intentionally vague stance on the issues, but has been weighed down by the unpopularity of Democratic stances on coal and healthcare in Kentucky; the DSCC has fluctuated in its spending commitment on her behalf

11

In Kansas, an Independent Candidate Has Changed the

Race

• Dem weakness in GA: Typically low African-American turnout in midterms

• Democrats have highlighted Republican David Perdue’s record of outsourcing, using an anti-Romney playbook

• Michelle Nunn’s (D) path to victory depends on winning support from moderate whites and solid African-American turnout; the race is likely to go to a Jan. runoff

Historic Trend Suggests Dems Will Lose Seats

Average Midterm

Performance:

Loss of 4 seats

Analysis•The average second-year midterm loss of presidents since World War II is six Senate seats•This figure is inclusive of more popular presidents, and Obama’s numbers haven’t budged much, even with improving macroeconomic indicators•A six-seat Senate loss among Democrats would therefore be consistent with the historic average in the current national political environment

12

Democratic Wildcard: Microtargeting

Analysis•The main asterisk: Democrats have proven they’re better at turning out voters than Republicans•Montana and North Dakota are prime examples from 2012: Democrats effectively targeted moderate Romney voters to split tickets for Sens. Heitkamp (D-ND) and Tester (D-MT)•DSCC is launching “Bannock Street Project” to microtarget winnable voters in some of the toughest territory•This works better in smaller states where the pool of voters is smaller; turnout depends on persuasion•Look to Arkansas, Iowa, and Alaska (Clinton voters from the ‘80s, caucusgoer dropoff)•There’s a human capital gap between the parties, and it could make a difference in closer races

13

Possible gain of 5-10 seats

Majority control

In the House

•Odds are that the House will remain stable

•Possible Republican gain of 5-10 seats

Possible gain of

6+ seats

Majority control

Overall Outlook

Projected Party Composition Shifts

14

In the Senate

•Odds are roughly 75% for a Republican takeover of the Senate

•Republicans are likely to net 6 to 9 seats, and a wave is looking increasingly likely

•Many races will swing together, e.g. if Sen. Hagan (D-NC) loses, difficult to see Sen. Landrieu (D-LA) or Sen. Pryor (D-AR) winning

•If Republicans are able to win three of four toss-up races in IA, CO, NC and NH, it will be a big night for the GOP