Nate Mantua

JISAO Climate Impacts Group

University of Washington NOAA Climate and Living Marine Resources Workshop Pacific Marine Environmental Lab

May 14, 2008 Seattle, WA

Nate Mantua

JISAO Climate Impacts Group

University of Washington NOAA Climate and Living Marine Resources Workshop Pacific Marine Environmental Lab

May 14, 2008 Seattle, WA

Climate considerations in the Climate considerations in the management of anadromous management of anadromous

fishes in the Pacific Northwestfishes in the Pacific Northwest

Climate considerations in the Climate considerations in the management of anadromous management of anadromous

fishes in the Pacific Northwestfishes in the Pacific Northwest

OutlineOutline

1. A bit of background

2. Short term harvest planning

3. Long-term recovery planning

4. Water resources and hatchery operations

1. A bit of background

2. Short term harvest planning

3. Long-term recovery planning

4. Water resources and hatchery operations

The Ocean Phase: most of a salmon’s life, typically half the

mortality, and nearly all the growth

Salmon hatcheries - not to be confused with fish farmsSalmon hatcheries - not to be confused with fish farms

Abundance variesAbundance varies

• Salmon fisheries are managed at the level of stocks (or independent population groups)

• Stock-sizes vary, so the success of abundance-based management depends in part on accurate pre-season run-size forecasts

– and accurate stock distribution forecasts for mixed stock fisheries

• Salmon fisheries are managed at the level of stocks (or independent population groups)

• Stock-sizes vary, so the success of abundance-based management depends in part on accurate pre-season run-size forecasts

– and accurate stock distribution forecasts for mixed stock fisheries

• The abundance of Pacific salmon has likely been at historic highs since the 1980s

• Hatcheries have contributed ~60% of the increase

• The ocean’s carrying capacity for salmon appears to have doubled!

From Nathan Taylor UBC Fisheries Centre

• The abundance of Pacific salmon has likely been at historic highs since the 1980s

• Hatcheries have contributed ~60% of the increase

• The ocean’s carrying capacity for salmon appears to have doubled!

From Nathan Taylor UBC Fisheries Centre

Mil

lion

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s

A North-South see-saw in salmon productionA North-South see-saw in salmon productionA North-South see-saw in salmon productionA North-South see-saw in salmon production

Warm PDO Cool PDO Warm PDO ???Cool PDO

spri

ng

chin

ook

ret

urn

s to

th

e C

olu

mb

ia R

iver

mou

th

(100

0s)

Alask

a pin

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eye catch

(million

s)

These are hard times for west coast salmon and salmon fisheriesThese are hard times for west coast salmon and salmon fisheries

• Wild salmon abundance now just a few percent of historic levels, and hatchery programs have only partially mitigated for the lost abundance

• 1990s ushered in the era of ESA listings– 28 of 52 west coast ESUs currently listed as either

threatened or endangered with extinction under the ESA

• 1990s also ushered in an era of sharply reduced harvest opportunities for west coast salmon fishers

• Wild salmon abundance now just a few percent of historic levels, and hatchery programs have only partially mitigated for the lost abundance

• 1990s ushered in the era of ESA listings– 28 of 52 west coast ESUs currently listed as either

threatened or endangered with extinction under the ESA

• 1990s also ushered in an era of sharply reduced harvest opportunities for west coast salmon fishers

Klamath River fish kill 2002Klamath River fish kill 2002

• Disease, high fish densities, low flows and a very warm river resulted in massive kill of adult chinook salmon in the lower Klamath River

• Disease, high fish densities, low flows and a very warm river resulted in massive kill of adult chinook salmon in the lower Klamath River

Conservation concerns over the offspring from the 2002 returns led to a curtailed CA/OR chinook season in 2005, and sharp restrictions in 2006 www.oregonwild.org

Forecasts for short-term (3-6 month) Forecasts for short-term (3-6 month) harvest and allocation planningharvest and allocation planningForecasts for short-term (3-6 month) Forecasts for short-term (3-6 month) harvest and allocation planningharvest and allocation planning

• pre-season run-size predictions for every river: “how many fish will there be in the ocean this summer fishing season? Whose fish are they? How much protection do depleted stocks need?”

• run-size forecasts are based on assumptions about productivity trends (typically a persistence forecast) and information about the number of spawning adults, jack returns, and juveniles produced in hatcheries … use fish to predict fish, yet forecast errors are frequently 50-100%!

• No climate information has been formally used, but many studies have looked to “climate indicators” for help in reducing forecast errors

• pre-season run-size predictions for every river: “how many fish will there be in the ocean this summer fishing season? Whose fish are they? How much protection do depleted stocks need?”

• run-size forecasts are based on assumptions about productivity trends (typically a persistence forecast) and information about the number of spawning adults, jack returns, and juveniles produced in hatcheries … use fish to predict fish, yet forecast errors are frequently 50-100%!

• No climate information has been formally used, but many studies have looked to “climate indicators” for help in reducing forecast errors

Oregon (OPI) coho marine survival Oregon (OPI) coho marine survival

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 19901992 1994 1996 1998

Return Year

Survival

Persistence forecasts often fail because productivity varies by an order of magnitude…

Sept 1997 El NiñoSept 1997 El Niño Sept 1998 La NiñaSept 1998 La Niña

West-coast sub-arctic habitat is dynamic and sensitive to changing wind patterns (frequently influenced by El Niño and La Niña)

upwelling food webs in our coastal ocean: the California Current

Cool water, weak stratificationhigh nutrients, a productive “subarctic” food-chain with abundant forage fish and few warm water predators

Warm stratified ocean, fewnutrients, low productivity “subtropical” zooplankton, a lack of forage fish and abundant predators

Typically high NW salmon survival

Typically low NW salmon survival

1000 juvenileSalmon (smolts)

10’s to 100’s post-smolts early summer

A few to ~100 adults in 2nd summer

key factors? •Stratification •spring transition date•spring winds, upwelling and transport

?

1st s

prin

g at

sea

1st s

prin

g at

sea

1st w

inte

r at

sea

1st w

inte

r at

sea

key factors? •Stratification •winter winds, downwelling and transport

?

coastal ocean impacts on coho marine survival coastal ocean impacts on coho marine survival (Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oceanogr.)(Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oceanogr.)coastal ocean impacts on coho marine survival coastal ocean impacts on coho marine survival (Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oceanogr.)(Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oceanogr.)

4 index 4 index Ocean Conditions ModelOcean Conditions Model “hindcasts” “hindcasts” for OPI coho marine survival, 1969-1998 for OPI coho marine survival, 1969-1998 4 index 4 index Ocean Conditions ModelOcean Conditions Model “hindcasts” “hindcasts” for OPI coho marine survival, 1969-1998 for OPI coho marine survival, 1969-1998

Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oc.

R2= .75Empirically based models often do a good job “explaining” the past with environmental factors, but errors are generally large in forecast mode

Coho Forecasting SystemsCoho Forecasting Systems

Coastal Ocean Conditions

Sea surface temperaturesSea surface temperatures

Sea level

Nearshore winds

Oregon coho

salmon survival

SpringFall Winter Summer

FisheryFisheryRun-size forecast Run-size forecast (using obs’d ocean (using obs’d ocean

conditions)conditions)

Run-size forecast Run-size forecast (using SST forecast)(using SST forecast)

Plankton surveys

“fish-based forecasts” Jack returns

Harvest & allocation

decisions (February-March)

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/orcohofc.shtml

Lessons learnedLessons learned

• Time and space scale of climate information provided must match the scale of management decisions in order to be useful– Our basin-scale research results were inappropriate for local

scale management decisions– Collaborating with a fishery scientist charged with supplying

pre-season salmon predictions solved our scale mis-match problem

• A better understanding for the complexity of the climate impacts on salmon pathway allowed for a sobering assessment of predictability limits– Key aspects of ocean conditions for coho salmon are not likely

predictable, and this result highlights the importance of monitoring

• Time and space scale of climate information provided must match the scale of management decisions in order to be useful– Our basin-scale research results were inappropriate for local

scale management decisions– Collaborating with a fishery scientist charged with supplying

pre-season salmon predictions solved our scale mis-match problem

• A better understanding for the complexity of the climate impacts on salmon pathway allowed for a sobering assessment of predictability limits– Key aspects of ocean conditions for coho salmon are not likely

predictable, and this result highlights the importance of monitoring

Monitoring SystemsMonitoring Systems

http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/a-ecinhome.cfm

Multi-year to decadal forecastsMulti-year to decadal forecasts

• Skillful forecasts for the PDO or other modes of Pacific Decadal Variability are of great interest to salmon fisheries– It is now widely known that climate matters for

Pacific salmon, but the lack of skillful forecasts limits the utility of this information

• Skillful forecasts for the PDO or other modes of Pacific Decadal Variability are of great interest to salmon fisheries– It is now widely known that climate matters for

Pacific salmon, but the lack of skillful forecasts limits the utility of this information

The longer view: salmon recovery and restoration planningThe longer view: salmon recovery and restoration planning

• Will climate change derail well-intended plans?Will climate change derail well-intended plans?– NOAA Fisheries is crafting recovery plans and criteria for getting

ESA-listed stocks delisted– Biological Opinions are crafted to guide water management

operations so they comply with ESA mandates in major salmon producing watersheds like the Columbia, Klamath, and Sacramento River basins

– Large-scale conservation planning in the NGO world seeks advice on where to invest effort and $

– Federal, state, and local agencies are looking for guidance on how and where to invest efforts to protect and restore salmon

– Watershed-scale salmon restoration efforts are widespread across the west

• Will climate change derail well-intended plans?Will climate change derail well-intended plans?– NOAA Fisheries is crafting recovery plans and criteria for getting

ESA-listed stocks delisted– Biological Opinions are crafted to guide water management

operations so they comply with ESA mandates in major salmon producing watersheds like the Columbia, Klamath, and Sacramento River basins

– Large-scale conservation planning in the NGO world seeks advice on where to invest effort and $

– Federal, state, and local agencies are looking for guidance on how and where to invest efforts to protect and restore salmon

– Watershed-scale salmon restoration efforts are widespread across the west

Snohomish R. Chinook Recovery Planning Case Snohomish R. Chinook Recovery Planning Case StudyStudy

• Evaluate the benefits of alternative habitat restoration plans under different future climate scenarios using linked hydrologic and salmon-lifecycle models

Battin et al. 2007: PNAS

Snohomish R.

Impacts of Climate Change on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River (Battin et al. 2007: PNAS)

Impacts of Climate Change on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River (Battin et al. 2007: PNAS)

Climate Change will make salmon restoration more difficult:

•Decreasing Summer Low Flows

•Increasing Winter Peak Flows

•Increasing water temperatures in critical periods

Decreasing Spawning Flows

Increasing Winter Flows

Additional climate considerations for NW salmon managementAdditional climate considerations for NW salmon management

• Water management– In all anadromous river basins, operations seek to balance

multiple demands on water supplies; “normative” in-stream flows are the primary goal to optimize salmon production, but this usually conflicts with hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and transportation goals

• Hatchery operations: the NW has enormous investments in this infrastructure, and hatcheries are now the backbone of west coast salmon fisheries.

• Hatchery operations make no allowance for climate considerations– Climate information has the potential to inform decisions on

smolt release number and timing, facilities siting, mothballing failing programs, or building new ones…

• Water management– In all anadromous river basins, operations seek to balance

multiple demands on water supplies; “normative” in-stream flows are the primary goal to optimize salmon production, but this usually conflicts with hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and transportation goals

• Hatchery operations: the NW has enormous investments in this infrastructure, and hatcheries are now the backbone of west coast salmon fisheries.

• Hatchery operations make no allowance for climate considerations– Climate information has the potential to inform decisions on

smolt release number and timing, facilities siting, mothballing failing programs, or building new ones…