climate marine panel incze

8/15/2019 Climate Marine Panel Incze

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Why Were Here/What were Doing

Societal Relevance

Everyone Participates

Panels provide a necessary (minimal) degree of background (90 mins)

Dealing with uncertainty as we try to develop intelligent and flexible

approaches to public policy (should P0.05?)

Develop active connections among our disciplines and as individuals ~

research and public service

Follow-ups


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Marine Panel:

Lew InczeClimate Change Background

Andy Pershing GoM Pelagic Ecosystems

Kevin Friedland Fisheries Populations


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From H.H. Lamb (1995)Climate, History and the Modern World

1 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900

Year

15

12

9

6

3

Gld./100 kg

France

Italy

England

Holland


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Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley,

Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record

Thousands of years BP)

Little Ice Age~1650-1850 AD

Holocene Temperature Maximum

Tempera

ture

(C)R

elative

toPresen

t

Last Major

Glaciation(~100,000 yrs)

Medieval Warm Period

~800-1300 AD
http://gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/article1-fig2.htmlhttp://gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/article1-fig2.html


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Atmosp

heric

CO2(ppmv

)

Average

Glob

alTemp.

(C)

Phanerozoic(majority of macroscopic organisms)

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

22

17

12

540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 mya


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ice cap during

Late Ordovician


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Eccentricity of the Earths elliptical orbit

Wobble 1.5 in the Earths

axis of rotation relative to theorbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean

Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds,

ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture

Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust)

Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane)

Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

Variations in solar output

Preces

sionofth

eequi

noxes


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Preces

sionofth

eequi

noxes


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IPCC SRES emissions scenarios

HIGHER

A1FI

LOWER

B1

End-of-

century

emissions

range from

1x to 5x1990 levels


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Temperature

HadCM3

Projected Change in AnnualTemperature for 2071-2100

relative to 1961-1990


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Annual SST

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

degC BBH

Prince 5

Comparison of Annual mean SST at Boothbay Harbor and Prince 5, 1924-2000.

BBH at 43.84 N, 69.64 W; P5 at 44.947 N, 66.812 W

n=32, BBH=1.28 * P5, r2 = 0.72

Warm, moist

Dry, cold


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05 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 04

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Boothbay Harbor Monthly SST Anomaly (C) 1905 2004

Anomaly = deviation from 20th century mean, 1905-1999

Year: 1905 - 2004

Mont

h


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Temperature is important but not enough

Stratification/Vertical Mixing [f (T,S, Wind)]

Length of Stratified Season Salinity and Nutrients of Source waters (remote

influences)

IMPACTS:

Temperature (north-south shifts in domains/species)

Increased uncertainty and perhaps lower productionduring faunal transitions

Lots of uncertainty from food web perspective beginningat primary producers


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Available for download at:

http://www.climatechoices.org

UCS NECIA releaseJune 2007
http://www.climatechoices.org/http://www.climatechoices.org/


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Northeastern Temperatures(annual averages--GFDL, HADCM3 and PCM)

22ooF warming sinceF warming since

19701970

Higher: 6.5-12.5Higher: 6.5-12.5ooFF

Lower: 3.5-6.5Lower: 3.5-6.5ooFF

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

tempera

turecha

nge(oF)

observations

higher emissions

lower emissions

Source: NECIA/ UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

Nesting HOPS in a
http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/


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OA synoptic climatology

OA slope water climatology

Add Maine Coastal Current

Resulting synoptic estimate

Dynamically adjusted fields

for September 2000

Synoptic Estimate of Surface Salinity

Nesting HOPS in a

Coarse-Resolution

Climate PCM

A.R. Robinson, P.J.

Haley, Jr., W.G. Leslie


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Atmos

pheric

CO2(ppmv)

Average

Glob

alTemp.

(C)


8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

22

17

12

540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 mya


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Why the debate/uncertainty?

No one would guarantee the future

Science has a very high threshold for acceptance

Science embraces debate over the details

Its complicated

From a policy standpoint:

If the risks are significant, full understanding is hard to come by/long into the future,and the potential (but displaced) costs of inaction approach or exceed the costs of

action, are there better decisions than just denial?

Has ideology overtaken other forms of debate and deliberation?

Should a precautionary policy await the same threshold for acceptance as a

scientific hypothesis?

Are there collateral benefits to potential actions, such as energy security, profits from

innovation, human health, land use and living patterns, better uses for wealth, etc.?


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540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 my

>10 x present


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540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 my


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540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 my

>10 x present


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540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 my

Major tectonic uplift, major erosion (SiO2?), CO2

drawdown, African glaciation, global cooling, mass extinctions

--what did the meriodonal circulation look like??


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ice cap during

Late Ordovician


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Ice Cap


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(1) Astronomical Causes

11 year and 206 year cycles: Cycles ofsolar variability( sunspot activity)21,000 year cycle: Earth's combined tilt andelliptical orbit around the Sun ( precession of the equinoxes)41,000 year cycle: Cycle of the +/- 1.5 wobble in Earth's orbit ( tilt)100,000 year cycle: Variations in the shape of Earth's elliptical orbit ( cycle of eccentricity )

(2) Atmospheric CausesHeat retention: Due to atmospheric gases, mostly gaseous water vapor (not droplets), also carbon dioxide, methane,

and a few other miscellaneous gases-- the "greenhouse effect"Solar reflectivity: Due to white clouds, volcanic dust, polar ice caps

(3) Tectonic CausesLandmass distribution: Shifting continents (continental drift) causing changes in circulatory patterns of oceancurrents. It seems that whenever there is a large land mass at one of the Earth's poles, either the north pole or south

pole, there are ice ages.Undersea ridge activity: "Sea floor spreading" (associated with continental drift) causing variations in ocean

displacement.
http://unisci.com/stories/20012/0517011.htmhttp://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspots.htmlhttp://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspots.htmlhttp://museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/why_glaciations1.htmlhttp://museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/why_glaciations1.htmlhttp://museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/why_glaciations1.htmlhttp://museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/why_glaciations1.htmlhttp://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/milankov.htmhttp://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Milankovitch_Cycles.pdfhttp://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/milankov.htmhttp://museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/why_glaciations1.htmlhttp://museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/why_glaciations1.htmlhttp://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspots.htmlhttp://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Maya_Civilization_Done_In_By_Brightening_Of_The_Sun.pdfhttp://unisci.com/stories/20012/0517011.htm


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Preces

sionofthe

equino

xes


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Milankovitch model predictions, from Quinn et al. (1991). Glacial/interglacials from Lisiecki and Raymo (2005).

Image by R.A. Rohde.

(July 1)


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Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley,

Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record

Thousands of years BP)

Little Ice Age~1650-1850 AD

Holocene Temperature Maximum

Tempera

ture

(C)Re

lative

toPresen

t

Last Major

Glaciation(~100,000 yrs)

Medieval Warm Period

~800-1300 AD
http://gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/article1-fig2.htmlhttp://gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/article1-fig2.html


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Available for download at:

http://www.climatechoices.org

UCS NECIA releaseJune 2007
http://www.climatechoices.org/http://www.climatechoices.org/


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1. IPCC SRES emissions scenarios

HIGHER

A1FI

LOWER

B1

End-of-

century

emissions

range from

1x to 5x

1990 levels


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Natural (solar + volcanic) forcingalone does not account forwarming in the past 50 years.

Natural ForcingNatural Forcing

Human influencesalone (greenhousegases & aerosols)brings models &observations into goodagreement over last 30

yrs.

Anthropogenic Forcing OnlyAnthropogenic Forcing Only

Natural and Anthropogenic ForcingNatural and Anthropogenic Forcing

U.K. Met Office HadCM3model (2001)

Temperature


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Temperature

HadCM3

Projected Change in AnnualTemperature for 2071-2100

relative to 1961-1990

High Emission


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AOGCM

output

Statistical Downscaling &

Regional-Scale Models


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Northeastern Temperatures(annual averages--GFDL, HADCM3 and PCM)

22ooF warming sinceF warming since

19701970

Higher: 6.5-12.5Higher: 6.5-12.5ooFF

Lower: 3.5-6.5Lower: 3.5-6.5ooFF

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

temperaturecha

nge(oF)

observations

higher emissions

lower emissions

Source: NECIA/ UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)


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How hot will summers feel in

New Hampshire

Summer heat index

Source: NECIA / UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/ )


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Source: NECIA / UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

Average area with >trace of snow for 30 d/winter

Goes from 10-45 d/winter

to 5-10 d/winter

(high emissions scenario)


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Nesting HOPS in a


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OA synoptic climatology

OA slope water climatology

Add Maine Coastal Current

Resulting synoptic estimate

Dynamically adjusted fields

for September 2000

Synoptic Estimate of Surface Salinity Coarse-ResolutionClimate PCM

A.R. Robinson, P.J.

Haley, Jr., W.G. Leslie

Report, May 2007

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