Washington StateClimate Change

Impacts Assessment:

HB 1303 Preliminary Findings

JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts GroupUniversity of Washington

Washington State UniversityPacific Northwest National Laboratory

Climate science in the public interest

UW Climate Impacts Group

WARMEST THANKS!!

• The Washington State Legislature.• The Dept. of Ecology and the Dept. of

Community, Trade and Economic Development.• The leadership group at the expanded CIG: Co-P.I.

Dennis Lettenmaier; Coordinators: Marketa McGuire Elsner, Jeremy Littell and Lara Whitely Binder.

• To the leaders and members of the ten sub-groups.

• We are honored!

WARMEST THANKS, cont’d.

To the • Bullitt Foundation; • WA. Dept. of Ecology; • King County; • The NOAA Climate Program Office;

(Our Conference Sponsors)

Overview

• What climate is and what climate change means

• What climate change puts at risk• Why climate change is a fact• Project description & team organization• What is significant about the project?• Overview of assessment (how assessment

was conducted)• Relationship with the Preparation and

Adaptation Working Groups (PAWGs)

What climate is & what climate change means

Climate is the pattern of weather, meaning averages,extremes, timing, spatial distribution of…

• hot & cold

• cloudy & clear

• humid & dry

• drizzles & downpours

• snowfall, snowpack, & snowmelt

• zephyrs, blizzards, tornadoes, & typhoons

Climate change means altered patterns.

[Changes in globally averaged temperature are one measure of GCC. Other measures will include items listed above. Small changes in the index big changes in the patterns.]

[Source: Holdren 2008]

What climate change puts at risk

Climate governs (so climate change affects)

• availability of water

• productivity of farms, forests, & fisheries

• prevalence of oppressive heat & humidity

• formation & dispersion of air pollutants

• geography of disease

• damages from storms, floods, droughts, wildfires

• property losses from sea-level rise

• expenditures on engineered environments

• distribution & abundance of species

[Source: Holdren, 2008]

Why Climate Change is a Fact

• The earth is getting hotter, both land and ocean.• Atmospheric circulation patterns are changing.• Permafrost is thawing.• Arctic summer sea ice is thawing.• Surface melting on Greenland is expanding.• Sea level is rising.• All of the above are forced by human emissions of

Green House Gases (GHG) over last 250 years (IPCC, 2007).

Source: Holdren. 2008.

• Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce CO2 emissions

• Make recommendations on improved preparedness and adaptation, including climate change impacts assessment in cooperation with UW Climate Impacts Group

Background

Collaboration with State Agencies

Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303

Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website:http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx

Evaluate impacts of climate change for the 21st century– use IPCC 2007 climate scenarios

– show regional impacts and areas of high and low sensitivity to climate change

– characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional)

– provide tools for policy makers and user groups

– collaborate with Governor’s Climate Change Challenge team

Objectives of the Impacts Assessment

Project TeamForests (D. McKenzie, J. Littell)– CIG, UW, USFS, Univ. ID

Coasts(D. Huppert)– CIG, UW

Urban Stormwater Infrastructure(A. Steinemann, D. Booth)– UW, Stillwater Sciences, King Co. Water

and Land Resources Div., Northwest Hydraulic Consultants

Human Health(R. Fenske)– UW, WSU, Institute for Chemical Process

and Envir. Tech. - Canada, CA Air Resources Board

Adaptation(L. Whitely Binder)– CIG, UW

Scenarios(E. Salathé, P. Mote)– CIG, UW, PNNL

Hydrology and Water Resources (D. Lettenmaier, M. Elsner)– CIG, UW

Energy – Hydropower (A. Hamlet)– CIG, UW

Agriculture & Economics (Stockle, Scott)– WSU, USDA ARS, PNNL

Salmon (N. Mantua)– CIG, UW

Assessment Overview:

Study Region

What is Significant about This Project?

• Large scope & sector diversity. (Atmosphere, ocean, mountains, water, fish, trees, wheat, potatoes, apples, people and their $ all in a single package).

• Very high level of integration achieved.• Use of ensemble of 20 climate models narrows

uncertainty to considerable extent.• Projected ranges of impacts at different locations

and in different ecosystems quantified.• First time data products of such fine resolution will

be freely available on the internet in such an integrated fashion.

• How, in general, the project was conducted:

– downscale global climate scenarios to regional scenarios, feed those results into VIC and DHSVM, feed those results into forest, agriculture, stormwater, energy, health models)

Sectors

Human Health

Coasts

Preliminary Adaptation Options

Hydrologic ModelsRegional Climate Models

Sectors

Hydrology &Water Management

Energy

Preliminary Adaptation Options

Sectors

UrbanStormwater

Infrastructure

Preliminary Adaptation Options

Sectors

Agriculture &Economics

Salmon & Ecosystems

Forests

Preliminary Adaptation Options

Regional Climate Change Scenarios

Precipitation, temperature

Global Climate Models

Sea Level Rise

Scenarios

Assessment Overview:Technical Approach

Sector Objectives (1)• Scenarios

– Projected changes in temperature and precipitation

• Hydrology and Water Resources– Projected impacts on snowpack, soil moisture, streamflow

• Energy– Projected impacts on hydropower production, heating and

cooling demand

• Agriculture & Economics– Projected impacts on yields of potatoes, apples, wheat

• Salmon– Projected impacts on water temperature, flood and low

flows

• Forests– Projected impacts on tree growth, regeneration, fire, and

insect outbreaks

Sector Objectives (2)

• Coasts– Projected impacts on coastal homes, infrastructure, and

commerce, through examination of several specific sites and physical threats

• Urban Stormwater Infrastructure– Projected impacts on the capacity of stormwater facilities,

or the disabling of key assets because of more severe flooding

• Human Health– Projected impacts on illness and mortality related to heat

and worsening air quality

• Adaptation– Discussion of opportunities that enhance existing PAWG

recommendations or provide additional adaptation options related to these same themes

Relationship with PAWGs