(mt/ag/ensc/enst 404/504 - global change) future directions (for the ar5) future directions in...

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

Future Directions Future Directions inin

Globally Coordinated Globally Coordinated Climate Change ResearchClimate Change Research

Primary Sources:

IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5/CMIP6/SSP Plans


Approaches to Scenario DevelopmentApproaches to Scenario Development

Previous (SRES) Current (RCPs)


Representative Concentration PathwaysRepresentative Concentration Pathways

RCP8.5RCP8.5

• > 8.5 W/m> 8.5 W/m22 in 2100 in 2100

• risingrising

RCP6RCP6

• ~ 6 W/m~ 6 W/m22 in 2100 in 2100

• stabilizationstabilization

RCP4.5RCP4.5

• 4.5 W/m4.5 W/m22 in 2100 in 2100

• stabilizationstabilization

RCP2.6RCP2.6

• peak 3 W/mpeak 3 W/m22 before 2100 before 2100

• decline after peakdecline after peak


(Now the previous plan)


(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

Veronika Eyring, Jerry Meehl, Bjorn Stevens, Ron Stouffer, Karl Taylor(CMIP Panel)

Sandrine Bony and Cath Senior (WGCM Co-chairs)

V. Balaji (WGCM Infrastructure Panel co-chair with K. Taylor)

16 January 2015 (updates to CMIP6 Data Request Timeline on Slide 9) Please see the CMIP Panel website for additional information and updates: http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/about-cmip

Contact for questions: CMIP Panel Chair Veronika Eyring (email: [email protected])

The final CMIP6 Design, possibly with small modifications to the here presented figures and wording, will be published in a GMD Special Issue together with a description of the CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs and the forcing datasets. This Special Issue will open 30 April 2015.

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6): Design and Organization

http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/about-cmip



• The scientific backdrop for CMIP6 is the six WCRP Grand Challenges, and an additional theme encapsulating questions related to biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks.

1. Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity

2. Changes in Cryosphere

3. Climate Extremes

4. Regional Climate Information

5. Regional Sea-level Rise

6. Water Availability

7. Biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks (AIMES & WGCM)

• The specific experimental design is focused on three broad scientific questions:

1. How does the Earth System respond to forcing?

2. What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?

3. How can we assess future climate changes given climate variability, predictability and uncertainties in scenarios?

CMIP6 Design: Scientific Focus

BUT NOTE: These are under review and evolving!

WCRP Grand Challenges: (1) Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity, (2) Changes in cryosphere, (3) Climate extremes, (4) Regional climate information, (5) Regional sea-level rise, and (6) Water availability, plus an additional theme on “Biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks”

DECK (entry card for CMIP)i.AMIP simulation (~1979- 2014)ii.Pre-industrial control simulationiii.1%/yr CO2 increaseiv.Abrupt 4xCO2 run

CMIP6 Historical Simulation (entry card for CMIP6)v.Historical simulation using CMIP6 forcings (1850-2014)

Note: The themes in the outer circle of the figure might be slightly revised at the end of the MIP endorsement process

(DECK & CMIP6 Historical Simulation to be run for each model configuration used in the subsequent CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs)With proto-DECK experiments (LMIP,OMIP etc.) in CMIP6 Tier1

CMIP Continuity

Note: The themes in the outer circle of the figure might be slightly revised at the end of the MIP endorsement process

(1) What are the criteria for the DECK?

The DECK experiments are chosen

1.to provide continuity across past and future phases of CMIP,

2.to evolve as little as possible over time,

3.to be well-established,

4.to be part of the model development cycle.

(2) What are the criteria for the CMIP Phase X Historical

Simulation? The CMIP Phase X Historical Simulation is chosen

1.to serve as a benchmark for CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs

2.to use the specific forcings consistent with Phase X of CMIP

3.to be decoupled from model development cycle if needed.

Criteria for DECK and CMIP6 Historical Simulation(DECK = Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima)

ScenarioMIP: Current Status

Brian O’Neill, NCARScenario MIP Co-chairs:

Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef van VuurenMembers: Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti,

Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe, Jerry Meehl, Richard Moss, Ben Sanderson

Contributions/feedback from additional IAM researchers:Kate Calvin, Shinichiro Fujimori, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi

Other MIPs: esp. LUMIP, AerChemMIP, C4MIPIAV Community: ICONICS, TGICA

CMIP6Design

ScenarioMIP Objectiveshttps://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/research/

mips/scenario-mip

Define and recommend an experimental design for future scenarios to be run by climate models as part of CMIP6Also:

Coordinate the provision of IAM scenario information to climate modeling groups

Coordinate the production of climate model simulations and facilitate provision of output

ScenarioMIP Goals

1. Facilitating integrated research across climate science, IAM and IAV communities

– Span wide forcing range and intermediate levels– Continuity with CMIP5– Include new forcing pathways of interest

2. Anchoring targeted experiments to answer questions about specific forcings

– Include scenarios with forcings (land use, aerosols) useful to other MIPs

CMIP5

Patternscaling

The Scenario Process:CMIP6 and Scenario MIP

RCPs

O’Neill & Schweizer, 2011; based on Moss et al. (2010).

SSPs

IAM, IAV studies

CMIP6

More IAM, IAV studies

CMIP6 Scenarios

IAMscenarios

Forc

ing

leve

l (W

/m2 )

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

SSP1Sustainability

SSP2Middle ofthe Road

SSP3RegionalRivalry

Shared Socioeconomic PathwaysSSP4

InequalitySSP5

Fossil-fueledDevelopment

ScenarioMIP design:Specific scenarios

SRES

InfeasibleSSP ref. scens.

CMIP5 RCP sims

~7

~3.7

Tier 1 (H/M/L)

Long-term extensions Overshoot

Ensemble

Tier 2 (H/M/L)

Forc

ing

leve

l (W

/m2 )

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

SSP1Sustainability

SSP2Middle ofthe Road

SSP3RegionalRivalry

Shared Socioeconomic PathwaysSSP4

InequalitySSP5

Fossil-fueledDevelopment

ScenarioMIP design:Specific scenarios

SRES

InfeasibleSSP ref. scens.

CMIP5 RCP sims

~7

~3.7

Tier 1 (H/M/L)

Long-term extensions Overshoot

Tier 2 (H/M/L)

Ensemble


ENDEND

Future Directions Future Directions inin

Globally Coordinated Globally Coordinated Climate Change ResearchClimate Change Research

(mt/ag/ensc/enst 404/504 - global change) future directions (for the ar5) future directions in...

Documents

cmip6 forcings

subsequent cmip6

final cmip6 design

cmip6 tier1cmip continuitynote

climate sensitivitychanges

climate variability

cmip6 data request timeline

future climate changes