moving forward: egypt and its population
DESCRIPTION
Moving Forward: Egypt and Its Population. Egypt’s Population. Egypt’s Population. 2 % Growth Rate. 61.5. Egypt’s Population. 2 % Growth Rate. 123. 61.5. China. Egypt. Bangladesh. India. China. Egypt. Bangladesh. India. 5.5% habitable and 2.4% arable. Comparative Density. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Moving Moving Forward: Forward: Egypt and Egypt and
Its Its PopulationPopulation
Egypt’s PopulationEgypt’s Population
0
25
50
75
100
125
Mil
lio
ns
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Egypt’s PopulationEgypt’s Population
0
25
50
75
100
125
Mil
lio
ns
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
2 % Growth Rate2 % Growth Rate
61.561.5
Egypt’s PopulationEgypt’s Population
0
25
50
75
100
125
Mil
lio
ns
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
1231232 % Growth Rate2 % Growth Rate
61.561.5
EgyptEgypt
ChinaChina
IndiaIndiaBangladesBangladeshh
EgyptEgypt
ChinaChina
IndiaIndiaBangladesBangladeshh
5.5%habitable and 2.4% arable
= 100 persons= 100 persons
Comparative DensityComparative Density
EgyptEgyptBangladeshBangladesh
BangladeshBangladesh
= 100 persons= 100 persons
Comparative DensityComparative Density
EgyptEgypt1,400 people/km1,400 people/km22
BangladeshBangladesh
= 100 persons= 100 persons
Comparative DensityComparative Density
EgyptEgypt2,600 people/km2,600 people/km221,400 people/km1,400 people/km22
= 100 persons= 100 persons
Comparative DensityComparative Density
EgyptEgypt5,100 people/km5,100 people/km22in 2030
in 2030BangladeshBangladesh1,400 people/km1,400 people/km22
New Valley DevelopmentNew Valley Development
New Valley DevelopmentNew Valley Development
Current Arable Land
New Valley DevelopmentNew Valley Development
Current Arable Land
New Valley Arable Land
New Valley DevelopmentNew Valley Development
Current Arable Land
New Valley Arable Land
New Valley DevelopmentNew Valley Development
Current Arable Land
New Valley Arable Land
15 years.
Projection AssumptionsProjection Assumptions
Two population projectionsTwo population projections
Projection AssumptionsProjection Assumptions
Two population projectionsTwo population projections
- Current fertility rate of 3.3 remains constant - Current fertility rate of 3.3 remains constant - redred
Projection AssumptionsProjection Assumptions
Two population projectionsTwo population projections
- Current fertility rate of 3.3 remains constant - Current fertility rate of 3.3 remains constant - redred
- Replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per Replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman by 2015 - woman by 2015 - yellowyellow
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Mil
lio
n
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Annual BirthsAnnual Birthsconstant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Mil
lio
n
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Annual BirthsAnnual Births
1.61.6
constant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Mil
lio
n
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Annual BirthsAnnual Births
2.52.5
1.61.6
constant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Mil
lio
n
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Annual BirthsAnnual Births
1.51.5
2.52.5
1.61.61.61.6
constant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
0
25
50
75
100
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Mill
ion
Total PopulationTotal Population
constant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
0
25
50
75
100
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Mill
ion
Total PopulationTotal Population
61.561.5
106106
constant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
0
25
50
75
100
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Mill
ion
Total PopulationTotal Population
61.561.5
9090
106106
constant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
Sectoral Sectoral Impacts Impacts
EconomyEconomy
Consequences of Consequences of GrowthGrowth
Currently, Egypt must create Currently, Egypt must create 520,000 new jobs each year.520,000 new jobs each year.
0
150
300
450
600
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Th
ou
san
ds
New Jobs RequiredNew Jobs Required
0
150
300
450
600
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Th
ou
san
ds
520520
580580
New Jobs RequiredNew Jobs Required
constant fertilityconstant fertility
0
150
300
450
600
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Th
ou
san
ds
520520
580580
New Jobs RequiredNew Jobs Required
low fertility low fertility
constant fertilityconstant fertility
270270
0
150
300
450
600
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Th
ou
san
ds
2.4 million jobs520520
580580
New Jobs RequiredNew Jobs Required
low fertility low fertility
constant fertilityconstant fertility
270270
Effects on the EconomyEffects on the Economy
With ample employment:
Effects on the EconomyEffects on the Economy
With ample employment:
With inadequate employment:
WaterWater
WaterWater
DrinkingDrinking
IrrigationIrrigation
IndustryIndustry
DrinkingDrinking
IrrigationIrrigation
IndustryIndustry
... a lack of water may become one of ... a lack of water may become one of the most serious impediments to the the most serious impediments to the nation’s economic development, to say nation’s economic development, to say nothing of its negative impact on the nothing of its negative impact on the quality of life of Egypt’s residents.”quality of life of Egypt’s residents.”
““
Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, 1996
0
250
500
750
1000
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Cm
^3
Water Available per PersonWater Available per Person
constant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
0
250
500
750
1000
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Cm
^3
Water Available per PersonWater Available per Person
570570
980980
constant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
0
250
500
750
1000
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Cm
^3
Water Available per PersonWater Available per Person
670670
570570
980980
constant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
0
250
500
750
1000
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Cm
^3
Water Available per PersonWater Available per Person
670670
570570
980980
constant fertilityconstant fertility low fertilitylow fertility
18% difference18% difference
HealthHealth
High fertility leads to high High fertility leads to high
death rates among infants death rates among infants
and mothers.and mothers.
High fertility leads to high High fertility leads to high
death rates among infants death rates among infants
and mothers.and mothers.
High fertility leads to high High fertility leads to high
death rates among infants death rates among infants
and mothers.and mothers.
High fertility leads to high High fertility leads to high
death rates among infants death rates among infants
and mothers.and mothers.
0
25
50
75
100
125
Dea
ths
per
100
0
< 2 2-3 4+
Birth Interval (Years)
3030
4141
121121
High Risk BirthsHigh Risk Births
26%26%
High Risk BirthsHigh Risk Births
425,000 425,000 infants infants exposedexposed
26%26%
High Risk BirthsHigh Risk Births
425,000 425,000 infants infants exposedexposed
34,000 34,000 infant infant lives lives savedsaved
High Risk BirthsHigh Risk Births
Benefits of Birth SpacingBenefits of Birth Spacing
Sectoral Impacts - 2026Sectoral Impacts - 2026
18% higher income per
person
2.7 million fewer in
Cairo
3.8 million fewer
primary students
18% more water
480 million LE saved
annually inhealth costs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1965 1991 1995 1997 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Contraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityContraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityC
on
trac
epti
ve P
reva
len
ce R
ate
Co
ntr
acep
tive
Pre
vale
nce
Rat
eT
otal F
ertility Rate
To
tal Fertility R
ate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1965 1991 1995 1997 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Contraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityContraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityC
on
trac
epti
ve P
reva
len
ce R
ate
Co
ntr
acep
tive
Pre
vale
nce
Rat
eT
otal F
ertility Rate
To
tal Fertility R
ate
7%7%
77
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1965 1991 1995 1997 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Contraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityContraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityC
on
trac
epti
ve P
reva
len
ce R
ate
Co
ntr
acep
tive
Pre
vale
nce
Rat
eT
otal F
ertility Rate
To
tal Fertility R
ate
48%48%
7%7%
77
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1965 1991 1995 1997 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Contraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityContraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityC
on
trac
epti
ve P
reva
len
ce R
ate
Co
ntr
acep
tive
Pre
vale
nce
Rat
eT
otal F
ertility Rate
To
tal Fertility R
ate
7%7%
77
48%48%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1965 1991 1995 1997 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Contraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityContraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityC
on
trac
epti
ve P
reva
len
ce R
ate
Co
ntr
acep
tive
Pre
vale
nce
Rat
eT
otal F
ertility Rate
To
tal Fertility R
ate
7%7%
77
54%54%
48%48%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1965 1991 1995 1997 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Contraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityContraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityC
on
trac
epti
ve P
reva
len
ce R
ate
Co
ntr
acep
tive
Pre
vale
nce
Rat
eT
otal F
ertility Rate
To
tal Fertility R
ate
7%7%
3.63.6
77
54%54%
3.33.3
48%48%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1965 1991 1995 1997 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Contraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityContraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityC
on
trac
epti
ve P
reva
len
ce R
ate
Co
ntr
acep
tive
Pre
vale
nce
Rat
eT
otal F
ertility Rate
To
tal Fertility R
ate
7%7%
3.63.6
77
54%54%
3.33.3
70%70%
48%48%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1965 1991 1995 1997 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Contraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityContraceptive Prevalence and Total FertilityC
on
trac
epti
ve P
reva
len
ce R
ate
Co
ntr
acep
tive
Pre
vale
nce
Rat
eT
otal F
ertility Rate
To
tal Fertility R
ate
7%7%
3.63.6
77
54%54%
3.33.3
70%70%
2.12.1
48%48%
Actions RequiredActions Required
Continue strong Government of Egypt support for the Continue strong Government of Egypt support for the
family planning programfamily planning program
Strengthen linkages between the family planning program Strengthen linkages between the family planning program
and other sectorsand other sectors
Enhance private sector participation in the family Enhance private sector participation in the family
planning programplanning program
Cost and BenefitsCost and Benefits of Family Planning Programs of Family Planning Programs
TunisiaTunisia
8.608.60
Cost and BenefitsCost and Benefits of Family Planning Programs of Family Planning Programs
TunisiaTunisia IndonesiaIndonesia
8.608.6012.5012.50
Cost and BenefitsCost and Benefits of Family Planning Programs of Family Planning Programs
TunisiaTunisia IndonesiaIndonesia ThailandThailand
8.608.6012.5012.50 14.0014.00
Cost and BenefitsCost and Benefits of Family Planning Programs of Family Planning Programs
Cost and BenefitsCost and Benefits of Family Planning Programs of Family Planning Programs
TunisiaTunisia IndonesiaIndonesia ThailandThailand EgyptEgypt
8.608.6012.5012.50 14.0014.00
30.0030.00
60
80
100
120
1996 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Mil
lio
ns
Effects of a DelayEffects of a Delay
60
80
100
120
1996 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Mil
lio
ns
Effects of a DelayEffects of a Delay
104 - 2010104 - 2010104 - 2010104 - 2010
60
80
100
120
1996 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Mil
lio
ns
Effects of a DelayEffects of a Delay
104 - 2010104 - 2010104 - 2010104 - 2010
108 - 2015108 - 2015108 - 2015108 - 2015
60
80
100
120
1996 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Mil
lio
ns
Effects of a DelayEffects of a Delay
104 - 2010104 - 2010104 - 2010104 - 2010
112 - 2020112 - 2020112 - 2020112 - 2020
108 - 2015108 - 2015108 - 2015108 - 2015
60
80
100
120
1996 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Mil
lio
ns
Effects of a DelayEffects of a Delay
104 - 2010104 - 2010104 - 2010104 - 2010
112 - 2020112 - 2020112 - 2020112 - 2020
108 - 2015108 - 2015108 - 2015108 - 2015
60
80
100
120
1996 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Mil
lio
ns
Effects of a DelayEffects of a Delay
104 - 2010104 - 2010104 - 2010104 - 2010
112 - 2020112 - 2020112 - 2020112 - 2020
108 - 2015108 - 2015108 - 2015108 - 2015
• 5 year delay = 4 million5 year delay = 4 million
Egypt’s ChoicesEgypt’s Choices
Continue current effortsContinue current efforts
Implement new approachesImplement new approaches
Egypt’s ChoicesEgypt’s Choices
Continue current effortsContinue current efforts
Implement new approachesImplement new approaches
Egypt’s ChoicesEgypt’s Choices
Continue current effortsContinue current efforts
Implement new approachesImplement new approaches
Actions RequiredActions Required
Continue strong Government of Egypt support for the Continue strong Government of Egypt support for the
family planning programfamily planning program
Strengthen linkages between the family planning program Strengthen linkages between the family planning program
and other sectorsand other sectors
Enhance private sector participation in the family Enhance private sector participation in the family
planning programplanning program
Moving Moving Forward: Forward: Egypt and Egypt and
Its Its PopulationPopulation