mortgage delinquencies: i quarter 2011
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![Page 1: Mortgage Delinquencies: I Quarter 2011](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051817/547a3d59b4af9fc3158b4a54/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Mortgage Delinquencies
I Quarter 2011
![Page 2: Mortgage Delinquencies: I Quarter 2011](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051817/547a3d59b4af9fc3158b4a54/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
According to the latest MBA National Delinquency Survey
for 1st quarter 2011, the seasonally-adjusted delinquency
rate increased slightly for 1-4 unit residential mortgage
loans outstanding.
The previous year was marked by continuous decreases in
delinquent mortgage. Looking at non-seasonally-adjusted
data, delinquency rates in fact decreased again in the first
quarter of 2011 to 7.79 percent.
That translates to 3.6 million past due loans, again an 18.5
percent drop from the peak of 4.5 million in the first
quarter of last year. That drop is primarily driven by the
continued decrease in seriously delinquent inventory.
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All Loans: Total Past Due, U.S.
SA, Number
1009080706050403020100
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
4500000
3750000
3000000
2250000
1500000
750000
4500000
3750000
3000000
2250000
1500000
750000
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All Loans: Total Past Due, U.S.
% Change - Year to Year SA, Number
1009080706050403020100
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
60
40
20
0
-20
60
40
20
0
-20
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• Mortgages with only one payment past due have picked up a
hair to 3.35 percent in the first quarter though they still
remain at levels prior to those of 2008.
• For mortgages with two missed payments, there was no
change over the last two quarters and they remain at 1.35
percent.
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Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: United States
Change - Year to Year SA, %
1009080706050403020100
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
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Mortgage Payments Past Due 60-89 Days: United States
Change - Year to Year SA, %
1009080706050403020100
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
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• The percentage of loans that are 90 days or more days past
due also changed little.
• They stood at 3.62 percent, a decrease of 3 basis points from
last quarter, but a decrease of 140 basis points from the same
time last year.
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Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: United States
Change - Year to Year SA, %
1009080706050403020100
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00
-0.75
-1.50
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00
-0.75
-1.50
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• Mortgage foreclosure inventory is not budging much, either.
It continues at 1.98 million, which is a 3.8 percent drop from
a year ago when the inventory stood at 2.05 million.
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Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: United States
EOP, NSA, Number
1009080706050403020100
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 05/31/11
2400000
2000000
1600000
1200000
800000
400000
0
2400000
2000000
1600000
1200000
800000
400000
0
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Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: United States
% Change - Year to Year EOP, NSA, Number
1009080706050403020100
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 05/31/11
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
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• The percentage of loans for which foreclosure actions were
started during the first quarter was 1.03 percent, down a
significant 392 basis points from last quarter and 14 basis
points since last year, which is a 13 percent drop.
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Mortgage Foreclosures Started: United States
SA, %
1009080706050403020100
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
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Mortgage Foreclosures Started: United States
% Change - Year to Year SA, Number
1009080706050403020100
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
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• The share of loans in the seriously delinquent category, those
90+ days late or in the foreclosure inventory, decreased some
but still not to the levels needed to see some significant
improvement.
• Seriously delinquent inventory inched from 8.29 percent in
the last quarter and 9.65 last year to 8.14 percent in the first
quarter of this year.
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Share of Seriously Delinquent Loans (%)
1009080706050403020100
Source: Haver Analytics 06/06/11
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
8
6
4
2
0
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• Regionally, foreclosure inventory has taken most significant
turn in the West where it fell from 560, 000 to 448,000 over
the past year.
• In the other three regions, foreclosure inventory has been on
an almost constant rise. Inventory still remains the largest in
the South, with over 826,000 loans in foreclosure.
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Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: SouthEOP, NSA, Number
Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: NortheastEOP, NSA, Number
1009080706050403020100
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
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All Mortgages Past Due: NortheastChange - Year to Year SA, %
All Mortgages Past Due: SouthChange - Year to Year SA, %
1009080706050403020100
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00
-0.75
-1.50
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00
-0.75
-1.50
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Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: SouthSA, %
Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: NortheastSA, %
1009080706050403020100
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
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Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: NortheastSA, %
Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: SouthSA, %
1009080706050403020100
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
5
4
3
2
1
0
5
4
3
2
1
0
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Mortgage Foreclosures Started: South% Change - Year to Year SA, Number
Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Northeast% Change - Year to Year SA, Number
1009080706050403020100
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
100
75
50
25
0
-25
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
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Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: MidwestEOP, NSA, Number
Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: WestEOP, NSA, Number
1009080706050403020100
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 05/31/11
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
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• The decrease in mortgages that are past due has been pretty
consistent with all regions, falling between 1.3 and 1.7 percent
over the past year.
• The number of new delinquencies increased slightly in all
regions, while the number of loans 90+ days past due leveled
off in the first quarter following a significant decline in the
past year. The Northeast even saw a slight pick up in the 90+
category.
• Finally, as expected following the robo-signing crisis, the
number of foreclosure starts dropped in all four regions with
largest year-over-year drops seen in the West and South.
From the quarter before, foreclosure starts down 24 percent
in Northeast, 18 percent in Midwest, 10 percent in the South,
and 27 percent in the West.
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All Mortgages Past Due: MidwestChange - Year to Year SA, %
All Mortgages Past Due: WestChange - Year to Year SA, %
1009080706050403020100
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
4
2
0
-2
-4
4
2
0
-2
-4
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Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: MidwestSA, %
Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: WestSA, %
1009080706050403020100
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
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Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: WestSA, %
Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: MidwestSA, %
1009080706050403020100
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
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Mortgage Foreclosures Started: West% Change - Year to Year SA, Number
Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Midwest% Change - Year to Year SA, Number
1009080706050403020100
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
200
160
120
80
40
0
-40
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50