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Analyst’s Handbook:Real Estate
Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 3, 2013
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
January 3, 2013 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Housing Starts 1Building Permits 2Housing Market Index 3-4New Home Sales 5Existing Home Sales 6Pending Home Sales 7New Home Prices 8Existing Home Prices 9-12FHFA Home Price Indexes 13Mortgage Rates 14Mortgage Applications 15Delinquencies 16Real Estate 17-18Value of Home Sales 19Mortgages 20Housing Affordability Index 21Real Estate P/Es 22Home Equity Loans 23
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15.3
.5
.7
.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
.3
.5
.7
.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
Nov
HOUSING STARTS(million units, saar)
Total
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 1.
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Nov
HOUSING STARTS(million units, saar)
Multi-Family
Single-Family
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 2.
- Housing Starts -
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Nov
BUILDING PERMITS(million units, saar)
Total
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 3.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Nov
BUILDING PERMITS(million units, saar)
Single-Family
Multi-Family
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 4.
- Building Permits -
Page 2 / January 3, 2013 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate www.yardeni.com
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Figure 5.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Dec
Nov
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX &SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS
Single-Family Housing Starts(thousand units, saar)
Housing Market Index
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dec
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS
Current Single-Family Sales Index
Future Single-Family Sales Index
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS
Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers
Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department.
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- Housing Market Index -
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Figure 6.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Dec
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX
Northeast
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
DecSouth
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec
Midwest
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
DecWest
Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department.
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- Housing Market Index -
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Figure 7.
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
Nov
NEW HOME SALES(thousand units, saar)
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14100
200
300
400
500
600
100
200
300
400
500
600
Nov
NEW HOMES FOR SALE(thousand units, sa)
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 143
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Nov
RATIO OF NEW HOMES FOR SALE TO NEW HOMES SOLD(months’ supply)
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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- New Home Sales -
Page 5 / January 3, 2013 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate www.yardeni.com
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Figure 8.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Nov
EXISTING HOME SALES(million units, saar)
Total
Single-Family
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Nov
EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES AVAILABLE FOR SALE(million units)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20143.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
Nov
EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES: MONTHS’ SUPPLY ON THE MARKET*
* Ratio of existing single-family homes for sale to existing single-family homes sold.Source: National Association of Realtors.
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- Existing Home Sales -
Page 6 / January 3, 2013 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate www.yardeni.com
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20143000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
Nov
Nov
PENDING HOME SALES INDEX vs. EXISTING HOME SALES
Total PendingHome Sales Index(saar)
Existing Home Sales(thousands, saar)
Source: National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 9.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201450
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Nov
PENDING HOME SALES INDEX(saar)
Total
Northeast
MidWest
South
West
Source: National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 10.
- Pending Home Sales -
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1480
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
Nov
NEW HOME SINGLE-FAMILY PRICES(thousand dollars, 12-month moving average)
AveragePrice
MedianPrice
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 11.
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Nov
NEW HOME SINGLE-FAMILY PRICES(yearly percent change in 12-month moving average)
Average Price
Median Price
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 12.
- New Home Prices -
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 1620
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Nov
EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES(thousand dollars, 12-month moving average)
AveragePrice
MedianPrice
Source: National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 13.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Nov
EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES(yearly percent change in 12-month moving average)
Average Price
Median Price
Source: National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 14.
- Existing Home Prices -
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Figure 15.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1475
95
115
135
155
175
195
215
235
75
95
115
135
155
175
195
215
235
Nov
Oct
HOME PRICES(ratio scale)
Existing Single-FamilyMedian Home Price(thousand dollars, 12-ma, ratio scale)
FHFA House Price Index:Purchase Only (Q1-1991=100, sa)
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1460
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Q3Oct
HOME PRICES(ratio scale, nsa)
S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index(Q1-2000=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller 20 Metros Home Price Index(Jan 2000=100)
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1475
125
175
225
275
325
75
125
175
225
275
325
Nov
EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICE(thousand dollars, ratio scale, nsa)
Single-Family Existing___________________
Mean
Median
Source: National Association of Realtors, Macro Markets, and Haver Analytics.
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- Existing Home Prices -
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Figure 16.
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1560
80
100
120
140
160
Oct
S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX(Jan 2000=100, nsa)
Atlanta
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15100
110
120
130
OctDallas
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1530
60
90
120
150
180
210
Oct
Boston
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1538
58
78
98
118
138
158
OctDenver
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1560
80
100
120
140
OctCharlotte
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1540
60
80
100
120
140
Oct
Detroit
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1550
75
100
125
150
175
OctChicago
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1520
60
100
140
180
220
260
Oct
Las Vegas
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1540
60
80
100
120
140
Oct
Cleveland
Source: Macro Markets.
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 150
100
200
300
OctLos Angeles
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- Existing Home Prices -
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Figure 17.
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1550
100
150
200
250
300
350
Oct
S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX(Jan 2000=100, nsa)
Miami
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1540
80
120
160
200
240
280
OctSan Diego
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1550
75
100
125
150
175
Oct
Minneapolis
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1525
75
125
175
225
OctSan Francisco
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1550
100
150
200
250
Oct
New York
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1550
100
150
200
OctSeattle
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1525
75
125
175
225
275
OctPhoenix
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1550
100
150
200
250
OctTampa
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1550
75
100
125
150
175
200
OctPortland
Source: Macro Markets.
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1550
100
150
200
250
300
OctWashington DC
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- Existing Home Prices -
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Figure 18.
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14100
150
200
250
Oct
FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX: PURCHASE ONLY*(Q1 1991=100, sa)
United States
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 1490
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
OctSouth Atlantic
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 1490
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
OctNew England
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 1490
110
130
150
170
190
210
Oct
East South Central
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 1490
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
OctMiddle Atlantic
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 1490
110
130
150
170
190
210Oct
West South Central
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 1490
110
130
150
170
190
210
Oct
East North Central
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 1490
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
330
OctMountain
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14100
150
200
250
OctWest North Central
* Numbers in boxes show percentage declines since peaks.Source: Federal Housing Finance Administration.
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 1490
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
Oct
Pacific
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- FHFA Home Price Indexes -
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 143
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
1/3
INTEREST RATE ON FIXED-RATE MORTGAGES
30-Year Mortgage*
* Average conventional 30-year commitment rate.Source: FHLMC Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
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Figure 19.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 142
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1/3
INTEREST RATE ON ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGES(percent)
1-Year Mortgage
Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.
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Figure 20.
- Mortgage Rates -
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 143
4
5
6
7
8
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
12/28
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX vs. SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Mortgage Applications:New Purchase Index(4-week average, sa)
New Plus ExistingSingle Family Home Sales(million units, saar)
Source: Mortgage Bankers of America.
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Figure 21.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
12/28
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS
Refinancing Index(sa)
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
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Figure 22.
- Mortgage Applications -
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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 141
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Q3
LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS(percent, sa)
Real Estate Loans
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Source: Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve System.
Figure 23.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
Q3
LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS(percent, sa)
Residential Loans*
Commercial Loans**
* Residential real estate loans include loans secured by one- to four-family properties, including home equity lines of credit.** Commercial real estate loans include construction and land development loans, loans secured by multifamily residences, and loans secured by nonfarm,
nonresidential real estate.Source: Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 24.
- Delinquencies -
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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Q3
VALUE OF OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE(trillion dollars, sa)
Source: Flow of Funds.
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Figure 25.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 143.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
Q3
VALUE OF EXISTING HOME SALES*(as a percent of Total Owner-Occupied Real Estate)
* Value of existing home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the following: existing home sales (saar) multiplied by the average existing home price.Source: National Association of Realtors, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Flow of Funds.
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Figure 26.
- Real Estate -
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q3
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 1625303540455055606570758085
25303540455055606570758085
Q3
REAL ESTATE(trillion dollars, nsa)
OWNERS’ EQUITY(as a percent of household real estate)
Owners’ Equity in Household Real Estate
Home Mortgages*
* Includes home equity loans and second mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 27.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Nov
HOME VALUES(yearly percent change in 12-month average)
Total Value of HouseholdReal Estate Holdings
Median Existing Home Price
Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 28.
- Real Estate -
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Q3
VALUE OF EXISTING HOME SALES*(billion dollars, saar)
* Value of existing home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the following: existing home sales (saar) multiplied by the average existing home price.Source: National Association of Realtors, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 29.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q3
VALUE OF NEW HOME SALES*(billion dollars, saar)
* Value of new home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the following: new home sales (saar) multiplied by the average new home price.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 30.
- Value of Home Sales -
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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-650
-450
-250
-50
150
350
550
750
950
1150
1350
1550
-650
-450
-250
-50
150
350
550
750
950
1150
1350
1550
Q3
HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING(billion dollars, saar)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
Q3
HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING(as a ratio of the value of existing* and new home sales**)
* Value of existing home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the following: existing home sales (saar) multiplied by the average existing home price.** Value of new home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the following: new home sales (saar) mulitplied by the average new home price.
Source: National Association of Realtors, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 32.
- Mortgages -
Page 20 / January 3, 2013 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1460
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Oct
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX*
Source: National Association of Realtors.
* Index=100 when median family income qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median priced existing single-family home. Rising index indicates morebuyers can afford to enter market.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Oct
100
150
200
250
300
Oct
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 1650
100
150
200
250
Oct
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 1650
100
150
200
Oct
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX*
Northeast Midwest
South West
Source: National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 34.
- Housing Affordability Index -
Page 21 / January 3, 2013 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 161.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
Q3
Q3
MARKET VALUE OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE
As a ratio of disposable personal incomeexcluding personal current transfer paymentsand other labor income
As a ratio ofdisposable personal income
Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Q3
Q3
HOME MORTGAGES OUTSTANDING*
As a ratio of disposable personal incomeexcluding personal current transfer paymentsand other labor income
As a ratio ofdisposable personal income
* Includes home equity loans and second mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 36.
- Real Estate P/Es -
Page 22 / January 3, 2013 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1640
100
160
220
280
340
400
460
520
580
640
700
760
820
880
940
1000
1060
1120
1180
40
100
160
220
280
340
400
460
520
580
640
700
760
820
880
940
1000
1060
1120
1180
Q3
12/19
HOME EQUITY LOANS(billion dollars, sa)
At Commercial Banks(weekly)
US CharteredDepository Institutions(quarterly)
Total Home Equity Loans*
* Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by mortgage companiesand individuals.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
12/19
Q3
HOME EQUITY LOANS(yearly change, billion dollars)
Home Equity Loans________________
At Weekly ReportingCommercial Banks
Total*
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
* Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by mortgage companiesand individuals.
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Figure 38.
- Home Equity Loans -
Page 23 / January 3, 2013 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate www.yardeni.com
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