trends in delinquencies and … in delinquencies and foreclosures in ... los angeles metro region...
TRANSCRIPT
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TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Community Development ResearchFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
January 2011
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National Trends
Even though NBER officially announced the recession’s end in June of 2009, pace of recovery remains slow Unemployment rate in November rose to 9.8% from 9.6%,
demonstrating continued weakness in the labor market On the more positive side, the private sector has been adding jobs
each month, and part of the rise in unemployment is due to an increase in the labor force-that is, the number of people who started looking for work
Housing is the one major sector of the economy where we still do not see signs of recovery New and existing home sales remain near historic lows, and
inventories of foreclosed homes remain very high Public sector budget crisis in many states is of major concern,
and threatens viability of services to LMI communities
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National Trends
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Unemployment continues to hover around 10%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Recession
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Une
mpl
oym
entR
ate
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Recovery, particularly in labor market, remains elusive
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48
Perc
ent D
eclin
e in
Em
ploy
men
t fro
m P
eak
Months Since Start of Recession to Employment Recovery
1980 1974 1981 1990
2008
2001
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010
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100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Case-Shiller National House Price Index(2000 = 100, Quarterly)
Case-Shiller Index shows continued softness in housing market
Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index
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FHFA House Price Index rises slightly in 3rd Qtr of 2010
FHFA
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x20
00=
100
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly)
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), includes refinancing and is not seasonally adjusted
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Nationally, delinquencies drop in 2010, but still more than 4.5 million homes in distress
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
All Mortgages Past Due Loans in Foreclosure
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
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Despite improvement, high rates of delinquency remain concentrated in western and southern states
Source: Lender Processing Service Inc. Applied Analytics, November 2010
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HAMP modifications down; borrowers still face challenges in obtaining permanent modifications
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
November December January 2010
February March April May June July August September October
Mod
ifica
tions
New HAMP Trials Started New Permanent Modifications Started
Source: HAMP Service Performance Report Through October 2010
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Household debt falling from 2008 peak
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Trill
ions
of D
olla
rs
Total Debt Balance and Composition
Mortgage Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Many states within 12th District face severe budget shortfalls
Total End-of-Year Shortfall as Percentage of 2010 Budget
Source: Data from Center for Budget and Policy Priorities
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California Trends
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California’s unemployment still well above national average
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Recession
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
United States
California
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Unemployment rates particularly high in Central Valley and Inland Empire
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2010
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California house prices appear to be stabilizing
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
FHFA
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x20
00=
100
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index(2000=100, quarterly)
California
United States
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Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
FHFA
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x20
00=
100
Southern California MSA house prices also seem to be stabilizing
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FHFA House Price Index: Southern California(2000 = 100, quarterly)
San Diego
Inland Empire
Los Angeles
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Number of delinquent mortgages seems to be stabilizing, but number of properties in foreclosure process rises
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due
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Average household debt falling from 2008 national peak
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Thou
sand
s of
Dol
lars
CaliforniaArizona
Nevada
US Average
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY Household debt includes: mortgage accounts, HE revolving accounts, auto loans, credit cards, and student loans
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State & Local Data Maps
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California Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresJuly 2010
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California Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresNovember 2010
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California Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresJuly 2010
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California Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresNovember 2010
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Los Angeles Metro Region Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresJuly 2010
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Los Angeles Metro Region Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresNovember 2010
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Los Angeles Metro Region Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresJuly 2010
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Los Angeles Metro Region Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresNovember 2010
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Orange County Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresJuly 2010
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Orange County Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresNovember 2010
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Orange County Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresJuly 2010
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Orange County Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresNovember 2010
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Inland Empire Regional Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresJuly 2010
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Inland Empire Regional Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresNovember 2010
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Inland Empire Regional Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresJuly 2010
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Inland Empire Regional Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresNovember 2010
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San Diego Regional Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresJuly 2010
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San Diego Regional Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresNovember 2010
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San Diego Regional Data Maps
Neighborhoods at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresJuly 2010
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
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San Diego Regional Data Maps
Neighborhoods at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresNovember 2010
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
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Conclusions
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For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website
Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies
All publications, presentations available on our website
Conference materials also posted shortly after events
http://www.frbsf.org/community/