moore's law - soc

8/3/2019 Moore's law - SoC

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SoC DESIGN

Motivation for SoC Design

Review of Moores Law


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Outline

History of Transistors and circuits

The Integrated circuit manufacturing

process

Moore Law is announced

Benefits of ICs

Extrapolating Moores Law to itsconclusion

Technological advances

Moores Law version 2?


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Discrete Transistors and Circuits

The transistor succeeded the valve in the late 1940s

Electronic engineers began to design complex circuits usingdiscrete componentstransistors, resistors, capacitors

Performance and other problems were noticed due to thenumber of separate components

Circuits were unreliable and heavy

High power consumptionlong time to assemble

Expensive to produce


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The SolutionIntegrated Circuits

Build entire circuit on a wafer of silicon

Use masking and spraying techniques in manufacture

Pure silicon wafers made from large crystals of silicon

Areas of silicon doped with suitable elements e.g. Be

Conductive tracks made from aluminium

Use this technique to produce other components e.g. capacitorsand resistors on the same wafer


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Problems solved

Inter-device distances reducedfaster circuits

Lightweight circuitssuitable for space travel

Cheaper assembly costafter recovery of R&D costs

Identical circuit propertiesbetter matching

Less power requiredless heat dissipated

Smaller circuitssmaller devices could be built


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INTRODUCTION


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Birth of Moores Law

The 19 April 1965 issue of Electronics magazine, marking theMcGraw-Hill publication's 35th anniversary,

It contained an article with the title "Cramming morecomponents onto integrated circuits."

Its author, Gordon E. Moore, director, Research andDevelopment Laboratories, Fairchild Semiconductor, had beenasked to predict what would happen over the next 10 years inthe semiconductor components industry.

His article speculated that by 1975 it would be possible tocram as many as 65 000 components onto a single silicon chipabout 6 millimetres square.


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Gordon Moore - Observations

Gordon Moore worked for Fairchild Semiconductors

He noticed a trend in IC manufacture

Every 2 years the number of components on an area of silicondoubled*

He published this work in 1965known as Moores Law

His predictions were for 10 years into the future

His work predicted personal computers and fast

telecommunication networks

* Sources vary regarding time period


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Moore's Law

Defined by Dr. Gordon Moore during the

sixties.

Predicts an exponential increase incomponent density over time, with a

doubling time of 18 months.

Applicable to microprocessors, DRAMs ,

DSPs and other microelectronics.

Monotonic increase in density observed

since the 1960s.
http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/bios/moore.htmhttp://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/bios/moore.htm


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COST AND CURVES


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# Components / Integrated function


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Moore's Law and Performance

The performance of computers isdetermined by architecture and clock speed.

Clock speed doubles over a 3 year period

due to the scaling laws on chip. Processors using identical or similar

architectures gain performance directly as afunction of Moore's Law.

Improvements in internal architecture canyield better gains than predicted by Moore'sLaw.


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Moores Law - Density


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Moores Law - Clock Speed


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Moores Law (Technologists)

Parameters

16 transistor/chip circa 1964

59% growth/year

36 years (2000) and counting

1styears 16 ??? 3rdyears 64 ???

15thyears 16,000 ???

24th

years 100,000 ??? 36thyears 300,000,000 ???

Was useful & then got more than 1,000,000 times

better!


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Moores Law Data (Technologists)


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Other Moores Laws

Other technologies improving rapidly

Magnetic disk capacity

DRAM capacity

Fiber-optic network bandwidth

Other aspects improving slowly Delay to memory

Delay to disk

Delay across networks

Computer Implementors Challenge Design with dissimilarly expanding resources

To Double computer performance every two years

A.k.a., (Popular) Moores Law


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Cost Side of Moores Law

About every two years: same computing at half cost

Long-term effect:

1940s Prototypes for calculating ballistic trajectories

1950s Early mainframes for large banks

1960s Mainframes flourish in many large businesses

1970s Minicomputers for business, science, & engineering

Early 1980s PCs for word processing & spreadsheets

Late 1980s PCs for desktop publishing

1990s PCs for games, multimedia, e-mail, & web

Jim Gray: In ten years you can buy a computer for the cost of its salestax today (assuming 3% or more)


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Graph of Moores Law


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Example


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Market


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IC Technologies

Small Scale Integration (SSI) combined around 10 discretecomponents onto 5mm square of silicon substrate.

SSI led to Medium Scale Integration (MSI), then Large ScaleIntegration (LSI) with many thousands of components in thesame area of silicon.

Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) provided the means toimplement around 1 million components per chip.

Current technology produces silicon wafers with around 50million components per chip. The Pentium 4 has around 55million components on the wafer (2003).


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IC Technology


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The Next Step

INTEL have announced that they have the technology

to produce microprocessors containing more than 400

million transistors, running at 10 gigahertz andoperating at less than one volt, in the next five to ten

years.

This is in line with Moores law


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Shrinking the Size of a Component

How small can a component become?

What limits the size of a device?

What do we make the devices from?

Do quantum effects have an influence here?

If there is a limit, what happens to Moores Law?


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The Current Limitations

Circuits cannot be reduced beyond atomic size

Quantum effects reduce the reliability as size decreases

Lithographic techniques become more complex as the size of

components becomes smaller than the wavelength of light

Speed of electrical signals is finite

This suggests that Moores Law will finally end


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Why does the law exist?

Some of the factors that contribute to Moores Law:

Manufacturers wishing to keep up with the law

Competition between manufacturersSuccessive technologies providing better design tools

Customer demand for better products

Mans constant struggle to advance knowledge

There may be other factors too


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Future of Moores Law

Short-Term (1-5 years)

Will operate (due to prototypes in lab)

Fabrication cost will go up rapidly

Medium-Term (5-15 years) Exponential growth rate will likely slow

Trillion-dollar industry is motivated

Long-Term (>15 years)

May need new technology (chemical or quantum)

We can do better (e.g., human brain)

I would not close the patent office


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Future of Harnessing Moores Law

Thread-Level Parallelism Multiple processors cooperating (exists today)

More common in future with multiple processors per chip

Parallelism in Internet? The Grid.

System on a Chip Processor, memory, and I/O on one chip

Cost-performance leap like microprocessor?

(e.g., accelerometer at right)

Communication World-wide web & wireless cell phone fuse!

Other properties: robust & easy to design & use


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Lateral Thinking

To improve the performance of devices, new technologies arein development:

Quantum storage (quantum data registers - a faster, more

efficient way to store and retrieve data than the binary system

we use today)

Light operated transistors

Electro-optical polymers and more are showing newtechniques for achieving the ever higher performance

demanded by industry and consumers
http://www.umich.edu/~focuspfc/http://www.evidenttech.com/applications/optical_transistor.phphttp://www.evidenttech.com/applications/optical_transistor.phphttp://www.umich.edu/~focuspfc/


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The Future of ICs

Moore acknowledged that his "law" won't hold forever. Heasserted that the right technological approaches can delay

"forever", extending the longevity of his original prediction.

Intel are working on new ideas such as SiGe and strainedsilicon to delay the end of Moores Law

Designing transistors that switch at speeds around THz (can

switch on and off a trillion times per second)

The advances continue!


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The End of the Line?

It is obvious that technology will improve

We may meet the lower size limit of a transistor

Therefore the abilities of the transistor itself will

have to improve instead

Faster switching, lower power designs etc.

ICs still improve


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Moores Law version 2?

After his law is no longer validwhat can we use to measuretrends?Component density?

Noit would be fairly constant

Performance?Yesbut which metric?

Switching rate?Individual or bulk?

Rise time?

Access time or read/ write timeOther measurable attributes


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Moore version 2s metric(s)

Technological advances will continue as long as there isdemand for digital devices

It is immaterial whether the component density limit is

reachedAnother metric will have to be chosen to allow the ICevolution to be mapped and to allow valid predictions to bemade

Which metricthis is extremely complex to choose


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Conclusion

Moores law will eventually reach its inevitable conclusion

Technology will continue to advance

ICs with improved properties will be manufactured

Another metric will need to be chosen to allow the future trends

to be mapped and predicted

The complexity of current IC design means this choice will be

difficult

moore's law - soc

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