the next moore's law: netness v6x
DESCRIPTION
The Next Moore's Law: Netness - describes the growing and changing power of connectivity - and why connectivity is replacing Moore's Law as the most important source of opportunity. It suggests that "everything wants to be connected" because the more things are connected (can communicate) the better things work. It describes connectivity as evolving to become fields rather than networks. Original date of presentation: June, 2009.TRANSCRIPT
MOORE’S LAW
the next
WHY EVERYTHING
WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
netness
this all started one day in 1989 when
I tried to go out of business
but the next morningTHE PHONE RANG
this all started one day in 1989 when
I tried to go out of business
but the next morningTHE PHONE RANGsomebody wanted an interactive version of
Murder She Wrote
this all started one day in 1989 when
I tried to go out of business
but the next morningTHE PHONE RANGsomebody wanted an interactive version of
Murder She Wroteand somehow… within a short time
I was learning Moore’s Lawthen writing for XEROX PARC
this all started one day in 1989 when
I tried to go out of business
but the next morningTHE PHONE RANGsomebody wanted an interactive version of
Murder She Wroteand somehow… within a short time
I was learning Moore’s Lawthen writing for XEROX PARCTHEN ONE DAY I WAS DOINGA WHITEPAPER FOR SOMEBODY ON
…interoperability.
…interoperability. Why interoperability (I asked)?
Because communications… getting different things to work together…consumed most of the time and moneyin creating products and systems.
NOTE TO SELF:
making it easier for things to work togetheris the fastest way to lower the cost of anything?
anything that is connected will always havemore opportunity than anything this is not connected.
—1994
NOTE TO SELF:
Anything that is connected always hasmore opportunity than anything that isn’t.
Making it easy for things to work togetheris the fastest way to lower the cost of anything?
—1994
John Seely Brown tells me:
if two machines do roughly
the same thing(LIKE COPYING)
if one machine(COPY MACHINE)
is in the world of atoms
if one machine(VIRTUAL COPY MACHINE)
is in the world of bits
if both has the sameuser interface (big green button),
look and feel
if machine in world of atoms
is connected withmachine in the world of bits
EACH MACHINE HAS MORE
opportunitythan if it is a standalone
machine— jsb’s law, 1997
Something deep was changing
I was aware of a shiftthe internet?the net?what?
jsb kept talking about the fabric,an emerging fabric of rich servicessurrounding and interconnecting communities
I began to recognizeit was not the internetit was not the network
it was netnessthat was making the differencebetween our past and our future
Moore’s Law observes….
the price and performance availablefrom semi-conductor technology
will doubleevery 24 months
it began as conversationsbetween Gordon Moore & Carver Mead
as an article in electronics magazine 1965
as marketing to promote future useof chips in consumer products
Carver Mead named itDr. Moore’s Law in 1971
became metronome that set the pacefor the global technology ecosystem
most important sourceof new opportunity.
foundation ofdigital everything
enabler of globalcommunications & technology
influence that extendsfar beyond technology
I asked Gordon Moore,“What is it people don’t understand?”
He answered,“What people don’t understand is that the smaller things get the faster and cheaper and better they always work.”
Moore’s Law vs. Netness
EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have faster computer chipsenabled by Moore’s Law
EVERY DAY it becomes more important / productive
to be able to connect, communicate,
and collaborate anywhere
with anythingon an ad hoc basis
what is netness?
in which connectivity is increasingly ubiquitous,lives are increasingly entangled.two worlds < the world of atoms and the world of bits > become one.
IS AN EMERGING STATE OF BEING
netness
Increasingly…connectivity now becomesthe most important driver of new opportunitythe critical creator of new value
not networksnot the Internetbut connectivity itself
The more things are connected,the better things work.
The more things are connected,the better things workthe smarter things are
The more things are connected,the better things workthe smarter they arethe safer things are
The more things you connect,the better things workthe smarter they arethe safer they arethe more opportunity is created forsharing resources and collaborating
We all know…
more things, people and placesare becoming connected every day
5 vectors of growth for connectivity
1. The number of networks
2. The number of connectable points
3. The number of connected devices
4. The number of connected locations
5. The ubiquity, frequency & intimacy of connections
How is connectivity changing?
As connectivity becomes ubiquitoussystems (networks) become fields.
Networks and lives become entangled.
A new state of connectivity is emerging
We used to talk about 3 states of connectivity:1st Loosely connected2nd Closely connected3rd Embedded
Now a 4th state of connectivity is emerging:1st Loosely connected2nd Closely connected3rd Embedded4th Entangled
When connectivity becomes ubiquitous< and things, people, places are entangled >
Systems (networks) become fields…
Two worlds the world of atoms the world of bits
become one
The more things, people, places, particles and bits become connected
< entangled >the better things work… the safer things are.
What creates the value ?
Connectivity has many mechanisms and effects.
Metcalfe’s Law < value created by networks >Reed’s Law < opportunity created by networks >Externalities Effect < opportunity created by networks >summation < more data from more points of view >netness < benefits from more ubiquitous connectivity >
Netness is not new. It is an iteration and extension of earlier recognitions. Euler & the Bridges of Konigsberg, Erdos & Renyi, Teilhard de Chardin, Solomonoff, Rapport & Small Worlds, Travers & Milgram, Derek J de Solla Price, Douglas Engelbart, Vint Cerf, Robert Kahn & The Internet, Metcalfe & Gilder, David Reed, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi & Scale Free Networks, Mark Newman, Duncan Watts, JSB, Mark Weiser & Ubicomp, Timothy Bernes-Lee & The World Wide Web, Manuel Castells, Bernardo Huberman, David Weinberger, Yochai Benkler, Usman Haque & Pachube and the list goes on…
We are not talking about connectingmore things over networks,
We are not talking about connectingmore networks
We are talking about connecting everything
individual world
What we consider today to be interconnected networks
individual worldplanetparticle
…is just the beginning
connect everything,at every level
particle planet
Limit connectivity
You limit opportunity + decrease safety
Connect the unconnected
you increase opportunity, safety & success
Example
ANEIGHTYYEAROLDMAN
WHOLIVES
BYHIMSELF
ANEIGHTYYEAROLDMAN
TAKESA
S H OW E R
ANEIGHTYYEAROLDMAN
TAKESA
S H OW E R
WHEN HE FALLSINTO THE TUB
What if
WHEN HE FELL INTOTHE TUB KNOWS
WHEN HE FELL INTOTHE TUB KNOWS
THATTHEMANIS
FALLING
WHEN HE FELL INTOTHE TUB KNOWS
THATHE
HASOSTEOPOROSIS
THE TUB KNOWSAND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT
THATTHE
MANIS
FALLING
THE TUB KNOWSAND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT
THATTHE
MANIS
FALLING
– 911– Daughter– Remote care-taker– Building manager
THE BATHTUB KNOWSAND THEN PROCEEDED TO
THATTHEMANIS
FALLING
THE BATHTUB KNOWSREARRANGE ITS MOLECULES
THATTHEMANISFALLING
THE BATHTUB KNOWSREARRANGE ITS MOLECULES
HITS THESO TUBWHEN HE
HITS THESO TUBWHEN HE
THE TUB
CATCHES HIM
connectivity fields will enable emergence
of “virtuous service fabrics”
individual world
connectivity fields will enable emergence
of “virtuous service fabrics”programmed to mitigate threats
and optimize outcomes
for individuals
individual world
“virtuous service fabrics”will evolve from current
experiments with
individual world
“virtuous service fabrics”will evolve from current
experiments with
individual world
sensor nets
“virtuous service fabrics”will evolve from current
experiments withsensor nets
&
individual world
pervasivecomputing
“virtuous service fabrics”will evolve from current
experiments withsensor nets
&pervasive computing
for healthcare
individual world
early stage virtuous service fabricsare already operating invisiblyin a surprising number of automobiles today.
Where can we use netness today?
netness is a compass you can use to plan products, business models & governance
what is the most urgent reason for recognizing, understanding and optimizing netness?
Confluencing crisesof population growth,
climate change& insufficientresources & reserves
Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resourcesare the most urgent reason to recognize,optimize and utilize netness.
We must radically iimprove our abilitiesto cooperate and collaborate withmaximum efficiency (minimum waste.) This is an absolute requirement to assure optimal survival of our communities and species.
How can we acceleraterecognition and optimization of netness?
It’s time to begin thinking of
a post network agewhere networks “get out of the way”and connectivity reigns.
- make connectivity visible.- validate the value of scaling up connectedness.- specify, implement and spread “The Field”. < move from networks to connectivity fields >- create new models for governance and business - build on connectivity instead of owning and selling it. - create a taxonomy of connectivity.
implicit in Teilhard de Chardin’sThe Phenomenon of Man
Connectivity = Life
Implicit in Teilhard de Chardin’sThe Phenomenon of Man
Connectivity = LifeIsolation = Death
That is why we can say
WHY EVERYTHING
WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
This is why we can say
WHY EVERYTHING
WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
NIELS BOHR (quoted by ANTON ZEILINGER)
“There are two types of truths:simple truths & deep truths.
Simple truth is truth where the opposite is not true. Deep truth is truth where the opposite is also true.” DALAI LAMA
“There’s something to that.”
final thoughts
There are risks to increasing connectivity.
It can be argued that netness increases vulnerability as well as value and virtue.
Given the mortal stakes before us, the benefits far outweigh the risks.
