monetary policy report july 2012. figure 1.1. gdp in different regions annual percentage change...

Monetary Policy Report

July 2012

Figure 1.1. GDP in different regionsAnnual percentage change

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

TCW

The world

USA

Euro area

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

06 08 10 12 14

90%

75%

50%

Outcome

Forecast

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the

Riksbank

Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication.

Figure 1.3. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

06 08 10 12 14

90%75%50%OutcomeForecast

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Figure 1.4. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

06 08 10 12 14



Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.

Figure 1.5. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

Source: The RiksbankNote. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate for the period 1999 up to the point when the Riksbank started to publish forecasts for the repo rate during 2007. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

06 08 10 12 14


Figure 1.6. Government bond rates with 10 years left to maturityPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

05 07 09 11

Spain

Italy

France

Germany

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Figure 1.7. Unit labour costIndex, 1999 = 100

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

99 01 03 05 07 09 11

Portugal

Spain

Greece

Italy

Ireland

Germany

Source: OECD

Figure 1.8. GDP in Sweden, the euro area and the USAQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

06 08 10 12 14

USA

Euro area

Sweden

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the

Riksbank

Figure 1.9. Inflation in the euro area and the USAAnnual percentage change

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat

Note: This refers to HICP for the euro area and CPI for the United States.

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

06 08 10 12 14

USA

Euro area

Figure 1.10. Unemployment in the euro area and the USAPer cent of the labour force

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

USA

Euro area

Sources: National Sources and the Riksbank

Figure 1.11. Housing investments in the USABillion USD

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

300

400

500

600

700

800

300

400

500

600

700

800

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Figure 1.12. World GDP and the world market for Swedish exportsAnnual percentage change

Sources: IMF and the RiksbankNote. The export market aims to measure import demand in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of the 15 countries receiving the most Swedish exports.

-7.5

-6.0

-4.5

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Swedish export market (left scale)

World GDP (right scale)

Figure 1.13. TCW-weighted nominal exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100

110

120

130

140

150

160

110

120

130

140

150

160

06 08 10 12 14

April

July

Source: The RiksbankNote. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

Figure 1.14. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

06 08 10 12 14

April

July


Figure 1.15. Swedish exports and the world market for Swedish exports Annual percentage change

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

06 08 10 12 14

Swedish export market

Swedish exports


Riksbank

Note. The export market aims to measure import demand in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of the 15 countries receiving the most Swedish exports.

Figure 1.16. Gross fixed capital formation and GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 08 10 12 14

GDP

Gross fixed capital formation


Figure 1.17. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change and per cent of disposable income

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Consumption (left scale)

Disposable income (left scale)

Saving ratio (right scale)


Note. Saving ratio including saving in collective insurance schemes.

Figure 1.18. Households’ wealth and debtPer cent of disposable income

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

86 91 96 01 06 11 16

Households' wealth (excluding collective insurancesaving)

Debt


Riksbank

Note. There is no regular publication of official data on household total wealth. The series refers to the Riksbank’s estimate of households’ financial assets and property assets. Q1 2012 is largely outcomes, while with effect from Q2 2012 the data is based on the Riksbank's assessments.

Figure 1.19. Number of hours worked and employedMillions and thousands, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data


4,300

4,400

4,500

4,600

4,700

4,800

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

06 08 10 12 14

Number of hours worked (left scale)

Number of employed (right scale)

Figure 1.20. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data


5

6

7

8

9

5

6

7

8

9

06 08 10 12 14

April

July

Figure 1.21. RU indicatorStandard deviation

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Source: The Riksbank Note. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1.

Figure 1.22. GDP-gap and the labour market gapPer cent

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

06 08 10 12 14

Hours gap

Employment gap

GDP gap


Riksbank

Note. GDP gap refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank’s assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.

Figure 1.23. Wages according to the National Accounts and to the short-term wage statisticsAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Short-term wages, definitive

Short-term wages, preliminary

National accounts

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. The short-term wage statistics for the last 12 months are preliminary and are usually revised upwards. The dashed yellow line in the figure show the Riksbank’s assessment of the final outcome according to the statistics.

Figure 1.24. Cost pressures in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Productivity

Labour cost per hour

Unit labour cost


Figure 1.25. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 08 10 12 14

CPIF excluding energy

CPIF

CPI


Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Figure 1.26. CPIFAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

06 08 10 12 14

April

July



Figure 1.27. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 08 10 12 14

April

July

Source: The Riksbank

Figure 1.28. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

06 08 10 12 14

April

July

Source: The RiksbankNote. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.

Figure 2.1. GDP in the euro areaQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms

Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

06 08 10 12 14

Confidence returns more quickly

Deeper debt crisis in Europe

Main scenario

Figure 2.2. GDP abroadTCW-weighed, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms



-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

06 08 10 12 14



Main scenario

Figure 2.3. Inflation abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage change, quarterly averages



-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

06 08 10 12 14



Main scenario

Figure 2.4. Policy rate abroadTCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly averages



0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 08 10 12 14



Main scenario

Figure 2.5. TCW-weighted nominal exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100, quarterly averages

Source: The RiksbankNote. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

110

120

130

140

150

110

120

130

140

150

06 08 10 12 14

Deeper debt crisis in Europe and more expansionarymonetary policyDeeper debt crisis in Europe

Main scenario

Figure 2.6. ExportQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 08 10 12 14

Deeper debt crisis in Europe and moreexpansionary monetary policyDeeper debt crisis in Europe

Main scenario

Figure 2.7. Gross fixed capital formationQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 08 10 12 14

Deeper debt crisis in Europe and moreexpansionary monetary policy


Main scenario

Figure 2.8. Household consumptionQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

06 08 10 12 14



Main scenario



-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

06 08 10 12 14



Main scenario

Figure 2.10. Hours gapPer cent


-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

06 08 10 12 14



Main scenario

Figure 2.11. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages



0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

06 08 10 12 14

Deeper debt crisis in Europe and more expansionary monetarypolicyDeeper debt crisis in Europe

Main scenario



0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 08 10 12 14

Deeper debt crisis in Europe and more expansionary monetarypolicy


Main scenario



-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

06 08 10 12 14

Confidence returns more quickly andmonetary policy is less expansionary


Main scenario


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

06 08 10 12 14

Confidence returns more quickly and monetarypolicy is less expansionaryConfidence returns more quickly

Main scenario



0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

06 08 10 12 14

Confidence returns more quickly and monetary policyis less expansionary


Main scenario




0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 08 10 12 14

Confidence returns more quickly and monetarypolicy is less expansionary


Main scenario


Figure 2.17. Alternative repo-rate pathsPer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 08 10 12 14

Higher interest rate

Lower interest rate

Main scenario




-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

06 08 10 12 14


Lower interest rate

Main scenario

Figure 2.19. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data

5

6

7

8

9

5

6

7

8

9

06 08 10 12 14


Lower interest rate

Main scenario


Figure 2.20. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 08 10 12 14


Lower interest rate

Main scenario



0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

06 08 10 12 14


Lower interest rate

Main scenario




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

05 07 09 11

United Kingdom

USA

Germany

Sweden




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

05 07 09 11

Spain

Italy

Figure 3.3. Stock market movementsIndex, 3 January 2006 = 100

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

05 07 09 11

Emerging markets (MSCI)USA (S&P 500)Euro area (EuroStoxx)Sweden (OMXS)

Sources: Morgan Stanley Capital International, Reuters EcoWin, Standard & Poor's and STOXX

Limited

Figure 3.4. Stock market volatilityPer cent

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

05 07 09 11

USA (VIX)

Euro area (EuroStoxx)

Sweden (OMX30)

Sources: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Reuters EcoWin and STOXX

Limited

Note. Implicit volatility is estimated on the basis of index-linked option prices.

Figure 3.5. Policy rate expectations measured in terms of market prices in the euro area and the USPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

06 08 10 12 14

FED, fed funds rate

ECB, refi rate

US, forward rates, 27 June 2012

Euro area, forward rates, 27 June 2012

US, forward rates, 12 April 2012

Euro area, forward rates 12 April 2012

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the

Riksbank

Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate, which is not always equivalent to the official policy rate.

Figure 3.6. Repo rate expectations in Sweden measured as market prices and survey, money market playersPer cent

Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank

Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 08 10 12 14

Repo rate

Forward rate 12 April 2012

Forward rate 27 June 2012

Survey, Prospera average, 30 May2012

Figure 3.7. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent

Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the

Riksbank

Note. Referes to average of three-month listed mortgage rates from banks and mortgage institutions, the three month interbank rate and the monthly average for three month mortgage rates for new loans according to financial market statistics. Listed mortgage rates are the rates published by Nordea, SBAB, SEB, Swedbank Hypotek and Stadshypotek, for example in the daily press.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

05 07 09 11

Mortgages, averages

Interbank rate

Repo rate

Mortgages, interest rate according tofinancial market statistics

Figure 3.8. Bank lending to companies and householdsAnnual percentage change

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Companies

Households

Source: Statistics Sweden

Figure 3.9. Housing prices Index, 2008 = 100

Sources: Statistics Sweden and Valueguard

Note. The data from Valueguard is on a monthly rate and the data from Statistics Sweden is on a quarterly rate. Statistics Sweden's real estate price index is based on land registration data, while Valueguard's index is based on purchasing contracts. Purchasing contracts are normally registered about two months before land registration, which means that SCB's statistics lag behind the statistics from Valueguard.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

05 07 09 11

Tenant-owned apartment prices(Valueguard)

Real estate price index (Valueguard)

House prices (Statistics Sweden)

Figure 3.10. TCW- and KIX-weighted nominal exchange ratesIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

05 07 09 11

KIX index

TCW index

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank

Note. TCW and KIX refer to different aggregates of currencies on the basis of trading patterns. KIX weights are updated regularly and cover a larger group of countries.


-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

United Kingdom

USA

Euro area

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and Office for National

Statistics

Figure 3.12. Industrial productionIndex, January 2006 = 100

85

90

95

100

105

110

85

90

95

100

105

110

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

OECD

USA

Euro area


Figure 3.13. Purchasing managers' index, manufacturing sectorIndex

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

BRIC

USA

Euro area

Source: Markit EconomicsNote. Values above 50 indicate growth.

Figure 3.14. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

United Kingdom

USA

Euro area

Figure 3.15. GDP in Denmark and NorwayQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

05 07 09 11

Norway, mainland

Denmark

Sources: Statistics Denmark and Statistics Norway

Figure 3.16. GDP in the BRIC countriesAnnual percentage change

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

05 07 09 11

China

India

Russia

Brazil

Sources: Central Statistical Organisation, India, Federal State Statistics Service, Russia, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística and National Bureau of

Statistics of China

Note. The BRIC countries consist of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Figure 3.17. World Import VolumeIndex, 2000 = 100, seasonally-adjusted data

Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Emerging economies

Advanced economies

World

Figure 3.18. Consumer prices Annual percentage change

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

United Kingdom

USA

Euro area

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National

Statistics

Note. This refers to HICP for the euro area and CPI for the United States and the United Kingdom.


-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12


Figure 3.20. Production, export of goods and the retail sectorIndex, 2007 = 100

70

80

90

100

110

120

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 07 09 11

Retail sales

Export of goods

Services production

Industrial production


Figure 3.21. The Economic Tendency IndicatorIndex, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

70

80

90

100

110

120

70

80

90

100

110

120

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

The Economic Tendency Indicator

Mean

+/- one standard deviation

Figure 3.22. New export ordersNet figures and annual percentage change

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Orders, Statistics Sweden (annual percentage change)

Orders, NIER (net figures)

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics

Sweden

Figure 3.23. Confidence indicators for householdsNet figures

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Micro index (personal finances)

Macro index (Sweden's economy)

Household confidence indicator


Figure 3.24. Employment, labour force and unemploymentThousands and per cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data


Note. Three-month moving averages.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

05 07 09 11

Labour force (left scale)

Employed (left scale)

Unemployment (right scale)

Figure 3.25. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy noticesThousands, seasonally-adjusted data

0

4

8

12

16

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Unfilled vacancies (left scale)

New vacancies (left scale)

Redundancy notices (right scale)

Sources: Employment Service and the Riksbank

Figure 3.26. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sectorNet figures and annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: National Institute of Economics research and Statistics Sweden

Note. The net figures are defined as the difference between the proportion of firms reporting a wish to increase the number of employees and the proportion of firms reporting a wish to reduce numbers. Employment plans are on a monthly basis, number of employed is on a quarterly basis.

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Hiring plans according to NIER (left scale)

Number of employed according to National Accounts (rights scale)

Figure 3.27. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labourPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Private sector industries

Retail trade

Construction sector

Manufacturing industry

Source: National Insitute of Economic Research

Figure 3.28. WagesAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Business sector

Public sector

Sources: National Mediation Office and the

Riksbank

Note. Preliminary outcomes in the past 12 months, usually revised upwards.

Figure 3.29. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

CPIF excluding energy

CPIF

CPI

Source: Statistics SwedenNote. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed interest rate.

Figure 3.30. Expectations of inflation one year aheadPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Companies

Households


Note. Company figures are quarterly, while households are monthly.

Figure 3.31. All respondents' expectations of inflation one, two and five years aheadPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

5 years

2 years

1 year

Source: TNS SIFO Prospera

Figure A1. Support programme measuresBillion EUR

Sources: European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and European Financial Stability

Mechanism (EFSM)

Note. Lending capacity in the ESM is attained through payments of capital made up to the end of 2014. The remaining lending capacity in the EFSF and the EFSM is only intended for use while waiting for the ESM to attain full capacity. This means that the total outstanding lending capacity will not exceed EUR 500 billion.

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

100

200

300

400

500

EFSF EFSM ESM

Outstanding lending capacity

Commitments to Portugal

Commitments to Ireland

Commitments to Greece

Figure A2. Government bond rates in various countries (difference compared to Germany)Percentage points

Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12

Spain

Italy

Figure A3. Government bond rates in various countries (difference compared to Germany)Percentage points

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

08 09 10 11 12

Portugal

Ireland

Greece

Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

Figure A4. Relationship between different labour market variables

Average working hours

Hours worked

Population

In the labour force

Outside thelabour force

Unemployed Employed

Figure A5. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Outcome

Mean 1999-2011

Mean 1999-2006

Mean 1980-1991


Figure A6. Model estimates of unemployment trendsPer cent of labour force, aged 15-74

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

UC trend cycle

UC gap

SVAR

Unemployment


Riksbank

Note. SVAR is a structural VAR model. UC stands for unobserved component, which is a statistical method for estimating unobserved trends.

Figure A7. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labour, total for the business sectorPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12


Figure A8. Vacancy ratePercentage of labour force


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

01 03 05 07 09 11

Figure A9. Average recruitment time in the business sectorNumber of months, seasonally-adjusted data


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

01 03 05 07 09 11

Figure A10. Wages in the whole economy according to short-term wage statistics Annual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11

Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank

Figure A11. Labour force participationPer cent of the population, aged 16-64

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Outcome

Mean 1999-2011

Mean 1999-2006


Figure A12. Number of sick outside of the labour forceThousands, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data

320

350

380

410

440

470

500

320

350

380

410

440

470

500

05 07 09 11

Actual data

Trend


Figure A13. Unemployment Per cent of the labour force, aged 15-74

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

04 06 08 10

Vulnerable groups

Non-vulnerable groups

Total

Sources: Employment Service and Statistics Sweden

Figure A14. Beveridge curvePer cent of the labour force

Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Years mark the first quarter of the respective year.

2001

2002

2003

2004 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50

Vac

ancy

rat

e

Unemployment

Figure A15. GDP growth in Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percentage change

Source: OECD

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Euro area

Sweden

Figure A16. Unemployment in Sweden and the euro areaPer cent of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Euro area

Sweden

Source: OECD

Figure A17. HICP in Sweden, the euro area, Switzerland and NorwayAnnual percentage change

-2

0

2

4

6

-2

0

2

4

6

05 07 09 11

Norway

Switzerland

Euro area

Sweden

Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden

Note. HICP refers to the Harmonised Index for Consumer Prices.

Figure A18. Exchange rate SwedenSEK/EUR


8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

05 07 09 11

Figure A19. Exchange rate for Sweden, Switzerland and NorwayAnnual percentage change

-20

-10

0

10

20

-20

-10

0

10

20

05 07 09 11

NOK/EUR

CHF/EUR

SEK/EUR


Figure A20. Foods in HICP and commodity prices on the world market for foodAnnual percentage change

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

05 07 09 11

World market price (left scale)

Euro area (right scale)

Sweden (right scale)

Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and The Economist

Note. World market price for food refers to The Economist’s Commodity Price Index for food.

Figure A21. Goods in HICP for Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percentage change


-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

05 07 09 11

Euro area

Sweden

Figure A22. Services in HICP for Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percentage change


0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

05 07 09 11

Euro area

Sweden

Figure A23. HICP for Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percentage change

Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 08 10 12 14

Euro area

Sweden

Tables

Table 1. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average values

Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Repo rate 1.5 1.5 (1.5) 1.4 (1.5) 1.6 (1.8) 2.4 (2.6) 3.1


Table 2. InflationAnnual percentage change, annual average

2011 2012 2013 2014

CPI 3.0 (3.0) 1.1 (1.2) 1.7 (1.9) 2.8 (2.9)

CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.1) 1.7 (1.7) 2.1 (2.0)

CPIF excl. energy 1.0 (1.0) 1.2 (1.0) 1.7 (1.6) 2.0 (2.0)

HICP 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.1) 1.7 (1.7) 2.1 (2.0)


Note. The rate of change in the CPI is based on revised index figures, which may differ from the established index figures. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices.

2011 2012 2013 2014 Repo rate 1.8 (1.8) 1.5 (1.5) 1.6 (1.7) 2.3 (2.5) 10-year rate 2.7 (2.6) 1.6 (2.1) 2.5 (3.1) 3.5 (3.9) Exchange rate. TCW-index. 1992-11-18=100 122.3 (122.3) 122.6 (120.3) 118.6 (117.8) 118.2 (118.2) General government net lending* 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (-0.1) 0.2 (0.2) 1.0 (0.9)

Table 3. Summary of financial forecastsPer cent, unless otherwise stated, annual average


* Per cent of GDP

Table 4. International conditionsAnnual percentage change

Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF.The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports. The weight assigned to a country is its share of Swedish exports of goods.

Sources: Eurostat. IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

GDP 2011 2012 2013 2014

Euro area (0.14) 1.5 (1.5) -0.4 (-0.3) 0.4 (1.1) 1.9 (2.3)

USA (0.20) 1.7 (1.7) 2.2 (2.3) 2.4 (2.4) 3.2 (3.2) Japan (0.06) -0.7 (-0.7) 2.7 (1.8) 1.6 (1.6) 1.0 (0.9)

OECD (0.55) 1.9 (1.8) 1.5 (1.6) 1.9 (2.1) 2.6 (2.7)

TCW-weighted (0.47) 1.3 (1.3) 0.4 (0.5) 1.1 (1.5) 2.1 (2.3)

World (1.00) 3.9 (3.8) 3.5 (3.5) 3.7 (4.0) 4.2 (4.3)

CPI 2011 2012 2013 2014 Euro area (HICP) 2.7 (2.7) 2.4 (2.3) 1.6 (1.7) 1.7 (1.6) USA 3.2 (3.2) 2.0 (2.0) 1.8 (1.8) 1.9 (1.9) Japan -0.3 (0.0) 0.1 (0.0) 0.1 (0.0) 0.3 (0.0)

TCW-weighted 2.6 (2.6) 2.1 (2.1) 1.6 (1.7) 1.7 (1.6)

2011 2012 2013 2014 Policy rates in the rest of the world. TCW-weighted, per cent

0.8 (0.8) 0.4 (0.4) 0.4 (0.4) 0.7 (0.8)

Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 111 (111) 105 (121) 95 (115) 93 (107) Swedish export market 3.9 (3.7) 1.4 (1.9) 3.5 (4.3) 6.3 (6.3)

2011 2012 2013 2014 Private consumption 2.0 (2.1) 1.5 (1.0) 1.6 (1.8) 2.5 (2.5) Public consumption 1.8 (1.8) 0.5 (0.5) 0.9 (0.7) 0.7 (0.5) Gross fixed capital formation 6.2 (5.8) 4.7 (0.7) 1.5 (3.5) 5.5 (5.6) Inventory investment* 0.6 (0.7) -1.2 (-0.7) 0.2 (-0.2) 0.1 (0.0) Exports 6.9 (6.8) -0.3 (0.5) 3.4 (4.9) 6.5 (6.7) Imports 6.3 (6.1) -0.5 (-0.2) 3.4 (4.7) 6.7 (6.8) GDP 3.9 (3.9) 0.6 (0.4) 1.7 (1.9) 2.8 (2.8) GDP, calendar-adjusted 4.0 (4.0) 0.9 (0.8) 1.7 (1.9) 2.9 (2.9) Final figure for domestic demand* 2.6 (2.6) 1.7 (0.7) 1.3 (1.7) 2.4 (2.4) Net exports* 0.7 (0.7) 0.1 (0.4) 0.2 (0.5) 0.3 (0.4) Current account (NA), per cent of GDP 7.0 (7.2) 6.6 (7.4) 6.6 (7.6) 6.5 (7.6)

Table 5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts.

Table 6. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated


Note. Potential hours refer to the long-term sustainable level for the number of hours worked.

* Per cent of the labour force

2011 2012 2013 2014 Population, aged 16-64 0.3 (0.3) 0.1 (0.1) 0.2 (0.0) 0.2 (0.0) Potential hours worked 0.8 (0.8) 0.6 (0.4) 0.5 (0.3) 0.4 (0.3) GDP, calendar-adjusted 4.0 (4.0) 0.9 (0.8) 1.7 (1.9) 2.9 (2.9) Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted 2.2 (2.3) 0.5 (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.9 (0.8) Employed, aged 15-74 2.1 (2.1) 0.3 (-0.1) 0.4 (0.5) 1.1 (0.9) Labour force, aged 15-74 1.2 (1.2) 0.4 (0.1) 0.5 (0.4) 0.3 (0.1) Unemployment, aged 15-74 * 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.7) 7.7 (7.7) 7.0 (6.9)

2011 2012 2013 2014 Hourly wage, NMO 2.6 (2.7) 3.1 (3.3) 3.2 (3.2) 3.5 (3.4) Hourly wage, NA 3.4 (3.3) 3.3 (3.5) 3.5 (3.4) 3.8 (3.7) Employer’s contribution* -0.2 (-0.3) 0.2 (0.3) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) Hourly labour cost, NA 3.1 (3.1) 3.5 (3.8) 3.5 (3.4) 3.8 (3.7)

Productivity 1.7 (1.7) 0.4 (0.6) 1.7 (1.8) 1.9 (2.1)

Unit labour cost 1.4 (1.4) 3.1 (3.2) 1.8 (1.6) 1.8 (1.5)

Table 7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole

Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National Accounts. Labour cost per hour is defined as the sum of actual wages. collective charges and wage taxes divided by the seasonally adjusted total number of hours worked. Unit labour cost is defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices.

* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.

2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP abroad 1.3 (1.3) 0.1 (0.4) -0.6 (1.1) 0.8 (2.1) Inflation abroad 2.6 (2.6) 2.0 (2.1) 1.3 (1.6) 1.1 (1.7) Interest rate abroad, per cent 0.8 (0.8) 0.3 (0.4) 0.1 (0.4) 0.1 (0.7) CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.1 (1.0) 2.1 (1.7) 1.5 (2.1) GDP 4.0 (4.0) 0.5 (0.9) -1.2 (1.7) 1.3 (2.9) Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.5 (1.5) 1.3 (1.6) 1.0 (2.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.9 (7.7) 7.9 (7.0) TCW-weighted exchange rate, 18 Nov. 1992 = 100 122.3 (122.3) 124.3 (122.6) 120.8 (118.6) 118.2 (118.2)

Table 8. Alternative scenario: deeper debt crisis in EuropeAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario, TCW-weighted foreign variables. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.


Riksbank


Table 9. Alternative scenario: deeper debt crisis in Europe and more expansionary monetary policyAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

2011 2012 2013 2014 CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.2 (1.0) 2.5 (1.7) 2.1 (2.1) GDP 4.0 (4.0) 0.6 (0.9) -0.5 (1.7) 1.8 (2.9) Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.2 (1.5) 0.5 (1.6) 0.5 (2.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.5 (7.7) 7.2 (7.0)

Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.



Table 10. Alternative scenario: confidence returns soonerAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. TCW-weighted foreign variables. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.



2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP abroad 1.3 (1.3) 0.5 (0.4) 1.5 (1.1) 2.6 (2.1) Inflation abroad 2.6 (2.6) 2.1 (2.1) 1.9 (1.6) 1.9 (1.7) Interest rate abroad, per cent 0.8 (0.8) 0.4 (0.4) 0.6 (0.4) 1.2 (0.7) CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.0) 1.7 (1.7) 2.4 (2.1) GDP 4.0 (4.0) 1.1 (0.9) 2.8 (1.7) 3.4 (2.9) Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.6 (1.5) 2.1 (1.6) 3.1 (2.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.3 (7.7) 6.3 (7.0) TCW-weighted exchange rate, 18 Nov. 1992 = 100 122.3 (122.3) 122.3 (122.6) 117.7 (118.6) 118.0 (118.2)

Table 11. Alternative scenario: confidence returns sooner and monetary policy is less expansionaryAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

2011 2012 2013 2014 CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.0) 1.7 (1.7) 2.2 (2.1) GDP 4.0 (4.0) 1.1 (0.9) 2.7 (1.7) 3.1 (2.9) Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.6 (1.5) 2.3 (1.6) 3.5 (2.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.4 (7.7) 6.5 (7.0)




Table 12. Alternative scenario: higher repo rateAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

2011 2012 2013 2014 Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.6 (1.5) 1.7 (1.6) 2.3 (2.3) CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.0) 1.5 (1.7) 2.0 (2.1) CPI 3.0 (3.0) 1.2 (1.1) 1.6 (1.7) 2.6 (2.8) Hours gap, per cent -0.4 (-0.4) -0.5 (-0.4) -1.0 (-0.9) -0.5 (-0.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.8 (7.7) 7.1 (7.0) GDP gap, per cent -0.2 (-0.2) -0.9 (-0.9) -1.2 (-1.0) -0.5 (-0.2)




Table 13. Alternative scenario: lower repo rateAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

2011 2012 2013 2014 Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.4 (1.5) 1.4 (1.6) 2.3 (2.3) CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.0) 1.8 (1.7) 2.2 (2.1) CPI 3.0 (3.0) 1.0 (1.1) 1.8 (1.7) 3.1 (2.8) Hours gap, per cent -0.4 (-0.4) -0.4 (-0.4) -0.7 (-0.9) -0.2 (-0.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.5 (7.7) 6.8 (7.0) GDP gap, per cent -0.2 (-0.2) -0.8 (-0.9) -0.8 (-1.0) 0.0 (-0.2)




monetary policy report july 2012. figure 1.1. gdp in different regions annual percentage change...

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