mid-year update to the financial plan for fiscal year 2013

7/30/2019 MID-YEAR UPDATE TO THE FINANCIAL PLAN FOR FISCAL YEAR 2013

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NEW YORK STATE

MID-YEAR UPDATE TO THEFINANCIAL PLAN FOR FISCAL YEAR 2013

PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2013 THROUGH FY 2016

ANDREW M. CUOMO, GOVERNOR NOVEMBER 2012ROBERT L. MEGNA, BUDGET DIRECTOR


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Superstorm Sandy (the Storm) struck the East Coast of theUnited States on October 29, 2012. The Storm caused extensiveinfrastructure damage and economic losses within the State, withwidespread flooding, power failures, and wind damage to public and

private property in New York City, Long Island, and otherdownstate areas. Major disaster response and recovery activities arestill underway. The State has requested $41.9 billion in Federal aidto offset the damage inflicted by the Storm, including $32.8 billionfor repair and recovery costs and $9.1 billion for prevention andmitigation efforts.

The Storms adverse impact on the States finances remains highly

uncertain and subject to a number of factors, including the scopeand timing of federal aid, which are not possible to predict reliablyat this time. Accordingly, this Mid-Year Update to the FinancialPlan does not reflect an assessment of the Storms impact on theStates multi-year financial projections. DOB expects to update theStates multi-year financial projections in January 2013 with theExecutive Budget Financial Plan for FY 2014, at which time it willprovide a comprehensive assessment of the Storm. The Stormassessment may result in material and adverse changes to theFinancial Plan projections set forth in this Mid-Year Update.


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................1

FINANCIAL PLAN OVERVIEW .......................................................................................5

MULTI-YEAR FINANCIAL PLAN PROJECTIONS ......................................................21

FY 2013 SIX-MONTH OPERATING RESULTS ...........................................................69

GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS .........................................................................................79

FINANCIAL PLAN TABLES AND ACCOMPANYING NOTES....................................... 83


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INTRODUCTION


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INTRODUCTION

This is the Mid-Year Update to the Financial Plan (the Mid-Year Financial Plan or"Updated Financial Plan") for FY 2013. Except for the specific revisions described in the FirstQuarterly Update and herein, the projections (and the assumptions upon which they are based) inthe Updated Financial Plan are consistent with the projections set forth in the Enacted BudgetFinancial Plan. Readers should refer to the Enacted Budget Financial Plan for a completeexplanation of the receipts and disbursements projections for FYs 2013 through 2016. 1 TheStates fiscal year began on April 1, 2012 and ends on March 31, 2013. DOB2 expects to nextupdate the Financial Plan projections in January 2013 with the FY 2014 Executive Budget.

The States General Fund the fund that receives the majority of State taxes and all incomenot earmarked for a particular program or activity is required to be balanced on a cash basis ofaccounting. The State Constitution and State Finance Law do not define budget balance. Inpractice, the General Fund is considered balanced on a cash basis of accounting if sufficientresources are expected to be available during the fiscal year for the State to (a) make all required

payments, including PIT refunds, without the issuance of deficit notes or bonds, and (b) restorethe balances in the Tax Stabilization Reserve and Rainy Day Reserve to levels at or above thelevels on deposit when the fiscal year began.

The General Fund is typically the financing source of last resort for the States other majorfunds, including HCRAfunds, the DHBTF, the STAR Fund, and the Lottery Fund. Therefore,the General Fund projections account for any estimated funding shortfalls in these funds. Sincethe General Fund is the fund that is required to be balanced, the focus of the States budgetdiscussion is often weighted toward the General Fund.

The State accounts for receipts and disbursements by the fund in which the activity takes

place (such as the General Fund), and the broad category or purpose of that activity (such asState Operations). The Financial Plan tables sort State projections and results by fund andcategory. The State also reports disbursements and receipts activity by two other broadmeasures: State Operating Funds, which includes the General Fund and funds specified fordedicated purposes, but excludes Federal Funds and Capital Projects Funds; and AllGovernmental Funds (All Funds), which includes both State and Federal Funds and providesthe most comprehensive view of the financial operations of the State.

Fund types of the State include: the General Fund; State Special Revenue Funds, whichreceive certain dedicated taxes, fees and other revenues that are used for a specified purpose;Federal Special Revenue Funds, which receive certain Federal grants; Capital Projects Funds,

which account for costs incurred in the construction, rehabilitation, and related expenses ofinfrastructure projects; and Debt Service Funds, which account for the payment of principal,interest, and related expenses for debt issued by the State and its public authorities.

1 DOBs Financial Plan information is available at www.budget.ny.gov2 Please see Glossary of Acronyms at the end of this document for the definitions of commonly used acronyms and

abbreviations that appear in the text.


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INTRODUCTION

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The factors affecting the State's financial condition are complex. This Updated FinancialPlan contains forecasts, projections, and estimates that are based on expectations andassumptions which existed at the time they were prepared. Since many factors may materiallyaffect fiscal and economic conditions in the State, the inclusion in this Updated Financial Plan offorecasts, projections, and estimates should not be regarded as a representation that such

forecasts, projections, and estimates will occur. Forecasts, projections, and estimates are notintended as representations of fact or guarantees of results. The words expects, forecasts,projects, intends, anticipates, estimates, and analogous expressions are intended toidentify forward-looking statements in the Updated Financial Plan. Any such statementsinherently are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results todiffer materially and adversely from those projected.

Such risks and uncertainties include, among others, general economic and businessconditions, extreme weather events, changes in political, social and economic conditions,political, legal, or administrative impediments to the implementation of gap-closing actions,regulatory initiatives and compliance with governmental regulations, litigation and various other

events, conditions and circumstances, many of which are beyond the control of the State. Theseforward-looking statements speak only as of the date they were prepared.


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FINANCIAL PLAN OVERVIEW


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SUMMARY

SUPERSTORM SANDY

Superstorm Sandy (the Storm) struck the East Coast of the United States on October 29,2012. The Storm caused significant infrastructure damage and economic losses within the State,with widespread flooding, power failures, and wind damage to public and private property inNew York City, Long Island, and other downstate areas. Public infrastructure, including masstransit systems, public schools, and municipal buildings, sustained serious damage. On October30, President Obama granted Governor Cuomos request for a Federal disaster declaration forseven counties: Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Richmond, Queens and Suffolk. OnNovember 2, the Governor announced that an additional two counties, Rockland andWestchester, were approved to receive Federal disaster assistance as a result of the Storm. On

November 12, another four counties were added to the Federal disaster declaration: Putnam,Orange, Sullivan, and Ulster. The State has requested $41.9 billion in Federal aid to offset thedamage inflicted by the Storm, including $32.8 billion for repair and recovery costs and $9.1billion for prevention and mitigation efforts.

The Storms impact on the States economy and finances remains highly uncertain andsubject to a number of factors, including the scope and timing of federal aid, which are notpossible to predict reliably at this time. Accordingly, this Mid-Year Update to the Financial Plandoes not reflect an assessment of the Storms impact on the States multi-year financialprojections. DOB expects to update the States multi-year financial projections in January 2013with the Executive Budget Financial Plan for FY 2014, at which time it will provide a

comprehensive assessment of the Storm. The Storm assessment may result in material andadverse changes to the Financial Plan projections set forth in this Mid-Year Update.

FINANCIAL PLAN UPDATE

Based on review of operating results through the first half of FY 2013 and updated data onState programs and activities, DOB estimates that the General Fund will remain balanced in thecurrent year. The budget gaps for future years are projected at $982 million in FY 2014, $3.59billion in FY 2015, and $4.37 billion in FY 2016. However, the projections are subject to anumber of risks, the most significant of which is the potential impact of the Storm on State taxreceipts and cash outlays for disaster assistance.

General Fund receipts, including transfers from other funds, are now expected to total $59.1billion in FY 2013, an increase of $174 million from the First Quarterly Update forecast. (SeeMulti-Year Financial Plan Projections All Funds Receipts Projections herein.) The changereflects unanticipated proceeds from a settlement between the Department of Financial Services(DFS) and Standard Chartered Bank and a modest increase in other miscellaneous receipts,offset by minor adjustments to tax receipts. General Fund disbursements, including transfers toother funds, are expected to total $59.4 billion in the current year, an increase of $174 million


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from the First Quarterly Update. The increase reflects, among other things, a downward revisionin the level of HCRA resources available to offset General Fund costs and increases in expectedcosts for General State Charges.

The General Fund is expected to end FY 2013 with a closing balance of $1.5 billion,

unchanged from the First Quarterly Update. As noted above, the estimate of the closing balancedoes not account for the potential impact of the Storm.

OPERATING RESULTS THROUGH SEPTEMBER2012

Operating results through the first six months of FY 2013 were positive in comparison to theestimate in the First Quarterly Update. (See FY 2013 Six-Month Operating Results herein.)General Fund receipts, including transfers from other funds, totaled $29.4 billion throughSeptember 2012, $337 million above the First Quarterly Update forecast. The positive varianceis due almost entirely to the settlement between DFS and Standard Chartered Bank. Total Statetax collections through September (including taxes dedicated to other funds) were approximately

$213 million below the level estimated in the First Quarterly Update. Results through October2012 were comparable, with total tax collections $170 million below the last public plan. DOBwill continue to monitor the uncertainties and risks regarding the economic and receipts forecast.(See Multi-Year Financial Projections All Funds Receipts Projections herein.)

General Fund disbursements, including transfers to other funds, totaled $26.9 billion throughSeptember 2012, approximately $153 million above the level estimated in the First QuarterlyUpdate. The higher spending in the General Fund was due mainly to routine timing variancesrelated to reimbursement from other funds for employee fringe benefit costs. Through October2012, this pattern reversed itself, with disbursements falling approximately $325 million belowthe level in the First Quarterly Update, mainly due to routine variances in cash disbursements

across months. After adjusting for these timing-related variances, disbursements to dateappeared to be generally consistent with the First Quarterly Update forecast, except for thespecific revisions described in the section titled Multi-Year Financial Plan Revisions.

The Financial Plan is subject to a number of risks, including the impact of the Storm, thestrength and duration of the economic recovery, and the execution of specific transactions. (SeeOther Matters Affecting the Financial Plan herein.)


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MULTI-YEAR FINANCIAL PLAN REVISIONS

DOB has made a number of revisions to the projections included in the First QuarterlyUpdate to the Financial Plan. The changes, which do not reflect an assessment of the impact ofthe Storm on State finances, result in no net impact to the operating projections in the First

Quarterly Update. The most significant revisions include the following:

Tax Receipts Forecast: Estimated tax collections have been revised downward in thecurrent fiscal year to reflect technical adjustments in the share of tax receipts retained bythe State versus New York City. The revisions to tax receipts, as noted above, have notbeen adjusted for the potential impact of the Storm.

Standard Chartered Settlement: In September 2012, the State received anunanticipated payment pursuant to a settlement between DFS and Standard CharteredBank.

HCRA: Medicaid Offset: HCRA resources expected to be available to finance GeneralFund Medicaid costs have been reduced as a result of downward revisions to cigarette taxcollections and other receipt collections, based on experience to date. Program spending,mainly for CHP due to growth in enrollment has been revised upward. The decline inHCRA resources results in Medicaid costs reverting to the General Fund.

Mental Hygiene: Spending has been lowered in all years of the Financial Plan period toreflect updated program data indicating lower costs associated with residentialdevelopment, and revised estimates for operational costs.

Federal TANF: Under the TANF program, Federal funds are allocated to New York

State to assist families on limited incomes including child care subsidies. In addition tothe standard annual TANF block grant, the State periodically receives supplementalTANF funding. Additional Federal TANF funds totaling $144 million will be used tooffset FY 2014 General Fund spending for child care subsidies.

In addition, the States projected costs for public assistance have been reduced by $144million annually across the plan period to reflect current caseload levels and thedistribution of cases between the Family Assistance and Safety Net programs.

Human Services COLA: The scheduled cost-of-living adjustments for human servicesproviders have been updated based on the formula in State law.

General State Charges: Costs have been revised upward due to litigation against theState, reduced escrow payments from State agencies to offset General Fund costs, andincreases in Workers Compensation payments.

Other Revisions: DOB has revised its multi-year spending projections across a numberof agencies and programs to account for recent trends and experience. Significantchanges include: the write-down of amounts expected to be received from other funds,


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based on an assessment of transaction risks; lower estimated spending for the GPHWprogram based on the continued trend of reduced claims submitted by counties; andhigher anticipated costs for, among things, preschool special education, the State takeoverof Medicaid administration, and ESDC local assistance commitments.

GENERAL FUND CLOSING BALANCES

DOB estimates that the General Fund will end FY 2013 with a balance of $1.5 billion,unchanged from the First Quarterly Update. The estimate of the closing balance does notaccount for the potential impact of the Storm. The following table summarizes the change inbalances within the General Fund from the prior fiscal year.

FY 2012

Results Change

FY 2013

Updated

Projected Fund Balance 1,787 (313) 1,474

Statutory Reserves:

Tax Stabilization Reserve Fund 1,131 0 1,131

Rainy Day Reserve Fund 175 0 175

Contingency Reserve Fund 21 0 21

Community Projects Fund 102 (45) 57

Reserved for:

Prior Year Labor Agreements (2007-2011) 283 (206) 77

Undesignated Fund Balance 75 (62) 13

GENERAL FUND ESTIMATED CLOSING BALANCES

(millions of dollars)

The Current Financial Plan includes the use of $62 million of the undesignated fund balance

for gap-closing purposes in FY 2013. The remaining $13 million is expected to be available fordebt management, consistent with prior years.

The Community Projects Fund, which finances discretionary (member item) grantsallocated by the Legislature and Governor, is expected to decrease by $45 million, reflecting thespend-down of the balance and no additional deposits.

The closing balance includes the remaining reserve to cover the costs of potential retroactivelabor settlements with unions that have not agreed to terms for prior contract periods. The

amount of the reserve is based on the general salary increases for prior periods agreed to by theStates largest unions for the same period. Reserves will be reduced when labor agreements forprior periods are reached.

Balances in the States principal reserve funds are expected to remain unchanged in FY 2013.


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OTHER MATTERS AFFECTING THE FINANCIAL PLAN

GENERAL

The Updated Financial Plan is subject to many complex economic, natural, social, financial,

and political risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside the ability of the State to control.DOB believes that the projections of receipts and disbursements in the Updated Financial Planare based on reasonable assumptions, but there can be no assurance that actual results will notdiffer materially and adversely from these projections. In certain fiscal years, actual receiptscollections have fallen substantially below the levels forecast in the Financial Plan.

The Updated Financial Plan is based on numerous assumptions, including the condition ofthe State and national economies and the concomitant receipt of economically sensitive taxreceipts in the amounts projected. Other uncertainties and risks concerning the economic andreceipts forecasts include the impact of: national and international events, such as the Euro-zonefinancial crisis, consumer confidence, oil supplies and oil prices; Federal statutory and regulatory

changes concerning financial sector activities; changes concerning financial sector bonuspayouts, as well as any future legislation governing the structure of compensation; shifts inmonetary policy affecting interest rates and the financial markets; financial and real estatemarket developments on bonus income and capital gains realizations; and household debtreduction on consumer spending and State tax collections.

Among other factors, the Updated Financial Plan is subject to various other uncertainties andcontingencies relating to: the extent, if any, to which wage increases for State employees exceedthe annual wage costs assumed; changes in the size of the States workforce; the realization ofthe projected rate of return for pension fund assets and current assumptions with respect to wagesfor State employees affecting the State's required pension fund contributions; the willingness and

ability of the Federal government to provide the aid contemplated by the Updated Financial Plan;the ability of the State to implement cost reduction initiatives, including reductions in Stateagency operations, and the success with which the State controls expenditures; and the ability ofthe State and its public authorities to market securities successfully in the public credit markets.Some of these specific issues are described in more detail herein. The projections andassumptions contained in the Updated Financial Plan are subject to revisions which may involvesubstantial change. No assurance can be given that these estimates and projections, whichinclude actions the State expects to be taken but which are not within the State's control, will berealized.


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BUDGET RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES

There can be no assurance that the General Fund budget gaps will not increase materiallyfrom current projections. If such events were to occur, the State would be required to takeadditional gap-closing actions. Such actions may include, but are not limited to, additional

reductions in State agency operations; delays or reductions in payments to local governments orother recipients of State aid; delays in or suspension of capital maintenance and construction;extraordinary financing of operating expenses; or other measures. In some cases, the ability ofthe State to implement such actions requires the approval of the Legislature and cannot beimplemented solely by the action of the Governor.

State law grants the Executive certain powers to achieve the Medicaid savings assumed in theFinancial Plan. However, there can be no assurance that these powers will be sufficient to limitthe rate of annual growth in DOH State Funds Medicaid spending to the levels estimated in theUpdated Financial Plan. In addition, savings are dependent upon timely Federal approvals,appropriate amendments to existing systems and processes, revenue performance in the States

HCRA fund, which provides support for approximately one-third of the DOH State-share ofMedicaid costs, and the participation of health care industry stakeholders. In particular, fundingresources that are expected to be generated through health care surcharges and other providerassessments may decline as a result of Medicaid Redesign initiatives which reduce expendituresand unnecessary utilization, as well as from the continued shift of fee-for-service deliverymodels to managed care. An inability to achieve these planned savings would reduce theavailable funding support for Medicaid from HCRA, and could potentially require acommensurate level of additional General Fund support in order to meet program needs.

The forecast contains specific transaction risks and other uncertainties including, but notlimited to, the receipt of certain payments from public authorities; the receipt of miscellaneous

receipts at the levels expected in the Financial Plan, including payments pursuant to the Tribal-State Compact that have failed to materialize in prior years; and the achievement of cost-savingmeasures including, but not limited to, the transfer of available fund balances to the GeneralFund at the levels currently projected. Such risks and uncertainties, if they were to materialize,could have an adverse impact on the Financial Plan in the current year or future years.

DOB continues to assess the immediate and long-term fiscal issues caused by the Storm,including cash outlays for public and private assistance, costs to repair damaged infrastructure,and measures that may be needed to mitigate hazards caused by climate change. The FinancialPlan estimates do not reflect an assessment of the Storms impact.


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The Storm highlighted vulnerabilities in the States infrastructure, including mass transitsystems, power transmission and distribution systems, and other critical lifelines, to extremeweather events, including coastal flooding caused by storm surges. Significant long-termplanning and investment by the Federal government, states, and municipalities may be needed toadapt existing infrastructure to the risks posed by climate change.

HEALTH INSURANCE COMPANY CONVERSIONS

State law permits a health insurance company to convert its organizational status from a not-for-profit to a for-profit corporation (a health care conversion), subject to a number of terms,conditions, and approvals. Under State law, the State is entitled to proceeds from a health careconversion, and such must be used for health care-related expenses. The Updated Financial Plancontinues to count on proceeds of $250 million in FY 2013 and $300 million annually in FYs2014, 2015, and 2016, which would be deposited into the HCRA account. If a conversion doesnot occur on the timetable or at the levels assumed in the Updated Financial Plan, the State willbe required to take other actions to increase available resources, reduce planned spending in

HCRA, or finance additional expenses in the General Fund.

STATUS OF CURRENT LABORNEGOTIATIONS

The State has multi-year labor contracts with its two largest employee unions, CSEA andPEF, as well as NYSPBA (representing the APSU bargaining unit, formerly ALES),NYSCOPBA, and Council 82. Most of the contracts provide for no general salary increases forFY 2012 through FY 2014, substantial increases to employee health insurance contributions, anda temporary reduction in employee compensation through a deficit reduction program (DRP).Employees will receive a $1,000 lump sum payment ($775 paid in FY 2014 and $225 paid in FY2015); a 2 percent salary increase in both FY 2015 and FY 2016; and be repaid the value of FY

2013 deficit reduction adjustments at the end of their contract term. The PEF and NYSPBAcontracts generally mirror the provisions for the other unions, but cover a four-year period. PEFand NYSPBA-represented employees will receive a 2 percent salary increase in FY 2015. PEF-represented employees will be repaid all DRP adjustments at the end of their contract in lieu ofthe $1,000 lump sum payment contracts.

Employees in the unions that have reached settlements with the State have contingent layoffprotection for FY 2013 and continuing protection for the full term of the agreements. Reductionsin force due to management decisions to close or restructure facilities authorized by legislation,SAGE Commission recommendations, or material or unanticipated changes in the State's fiscalcircumstances are not covered by this protection.

The State is in negotiations with its other unions, the largest of which is UUP, whichrepresents faculty and non-teaching professional staff within the State University system.


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LABORSETTLEMENTS FORPRIORCONTRACT PERIODS

The Updated Financial Plan continues to include a planned reserve to cover the costs of apattern settlement with unions that have not agreed to contracts for prior contract periods. Theamount of the reserve is based on the general salary increases agreed to by the States largest

unions for the same period. There can be no assurance that actual settlements for prior periodswill not exceed the amounts reserved. In addition, the States ability to fund the amountsreserved in FY 2014 and beyond depends on the achievement of balanced budgets in those years.

In August 2011, a judicial compensation commission authorized a multi-year plan to providesalary increases for judges beginning in FY 2013, which has now been implemented. TheUpdated Financial Plan assumes salary increases in the Judiciarys current budget projections.

CASH-FLOW PROJECTIONS

The State authorizes the General Fund to borrow resources temporarily from available funds

in STIP for up to four months, or to the end of the fiscal year, whichever period is shorter. Theamount of resources that can be borrowed by the General Fund is limited to the availablebalances in STIP, as determined by the State Comptroller. Available balances include money inthe States governmental funds and a relatively small amount of other moneys belonging to theState. Several accounts in Debt Service Funds and Capital Projects Funds that are part of AllGovernmental Funds are excluded from the balances deemed available in STIP. These excludedfunds consist of bond proceeds and money obligated for debt service payments.

In FY 2012, the General Fund used STIP to meet certain payment obligations during April2011, and repaid such amounts by the end of the same month.

Based on current information, DOB expects that the State will have sufficient liquidity tomake payments as they become due throughout the remainder of FY 2013, but that the GeneralFund may, from time to time, need to borrow resources temporarily from other funds in STIP.The State continues to reserve money on a quarterly basis for debt service payments that arefinanced with General Fund resources. Money to pay debt service on bonds secured bydedicated receipts, including PIT bonds, continues to be set aside as required by law and bondcovenants.

The following table provides actual month-end balances through October 2012 and estimatedbalances for the remaining months in FY 2013.


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General Other All

Fund Funds Funds

April (Results) 5,637 2,349 7,986

May (Results) 2,018 2,831 4,849

June (Results) 2,935 2,070 5,005

July (Results) 2,404 3,542 5,946

August (Results) 1,546 3,914 5,460

September (Results) 4,282 1,727 6,009

October (Results) 3,649 2,199 5,848

November (Est.) 2,481 2,476 4,957

December (Est.) 3,947 753 4,700

January (Est.) 6,064 1,664 7,728

February (Est.) 6,499 1,579 8,078

March (Est.) 1,474 1,750 3,224

ALL FUNDS MONTH-END CASH BALANCES


FY 2013

FEDERAL ACTIONS

The State receives a substantial amount of Federal aid for health care, education,transportation, and other governmental purposes. Any reduction in Federal funding levels couldhave a materially adverse impact on the State's Updated Financial Plan.

The Federal Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011 imposed annual caps on Federaldiscretionary spending over a ten-year period. The specific spending reductions necessary for

Congress to live within the caps will be decided through the annual Federal budget process, sothe magnitude of impact on Federal funds for the State has yet to be determined. Further, ifadditional deficit reduction is not enacted, the BCA directs that savings be achieved throughsequestration of FY 2013 funding, with across-the-board cuts to Federal programs scheduled forJanuary 2013, and lower discretionary caps in the following eight years. In a report to Congress,the Federal Office of Management and Budget estimated that Federal non-defense discretionaryprograms would face an across-the-board reduction of approximately 8.2 percent in January2013. If the sequester is implemented, DOB estimates that New York State and localgovernments could lose approximately $5 billion in Federal funding over nine years, beginningin FY 2013, from these additional Federal deficit reduction measures. DOB expects to makeadjustments to the Financial Plan as more definitive information becomes available.


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The State expects to receive a substantial amount of Federal aid for costs related to theStorm. There can be no assurance that the Federal government will approve aid at the levels oron the timetable requested by the State.

In addition, the Financial Plan may be adversely affected by other actions taken by the

Federal government, including audits, disallowances, and changes to Federal participation ratesor other Medicaid rules. For example, all Medicaid claims are subject to audit and review by theFederal government, and, although no official audit has commenced, questions have been raisedwith respect to the reimbursement methodology used for New York State OPWDD-delivereddevelopmental center services. The rates paid for these services are established in fullaccordance with the methodology set forth in New Yorks federally-approved State Plan. WhileNew York State continues to work collaboratively with its Federal partners to resolve theseconcerns, adverse action by the Federal government relative to these claims could jeopardize asignificant amount of Federal financial participation in the State Medicaid program.

LITIGATION

Litigation against the State may include potential challenges to the constitutionality ofvarious actions. The State may also be affected by adverse decisions that are the result ofvarious lawsuits. Such adverse decisions may not meet the materiality threshold to warrantindividual description but, in the aggregate, could still adversely affect the State's Financial Plan.

OTHERPOST-EMPLOYMENT BENEFITS

State employees become eligible for post-employment benefits (health insurance) if theyreach retirement while working for the State with at least ten years of service. The cost ofproviding post-retirement health insurance is shared between the State and the retired employee.

Contributions are established by law and may be amended by the Legislature. The State pays itsshare of costs on a PAYGO basis as required by law.

In accordance with GASB Statement 45, the State must perform an actuarial valuation everytwo years for purposes of calculating OPEB liabilities. As disclosed in Note 13 of the StatesBasic Financial Statements for FY 2012, the ARC represents the annual level of funding that, ifset aside on an ongoing basis, is projected to cover normal costs each year and to amortize anyunfunded liabilities of the plan over a period not to exceed 30 years. Amounts required but notactually set aside to pay for these benefits are accumulated with interest as part of the net OPEBobligation, after adjusting for amounts previously required.

As reported in the States Basic Financial Statements for FY 2012, an actuarial valuation ofOPEB liabilities was performed as of April 1, 2010. The valuation calculated the present valueof the actuarial accrued total liability for benefits as of April 1, 2010 at $72.1 billion ($59.7billion for the State and $12.4 billion for SUNY), determined using the Frozen Entry Ageactuarial cost method, and is amortized over an open period of 30 years using the levelpercentage of projected payroll amortization method.


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The net OPEB liability for FY 2012 totaled $3.9 billion ($3.1 billion for the State and $0.8billion for SUNY) under the Frozen Entry Age actuarial cost method, allocating costs on a levelbasis over earnings. This was $2.5 billion ($1.9 billion for the State and $0.6 billion for SUNY)above the payments for retiree costs made by the State in FY 2012. This difference between theStates PAYGO costs and the actuarially determined required annual contribution under GASB

Statement 45 reduced the States currently positive net asset condition at the end of FY 2012 by$2.5 billion.

GASB does not require the additional costs to be funded on the States budgetary (cash)basis, and no funding is assumed for this purpose in the Financial Plan. The State continues tofinance these costs, along with all other employee health care expenses, on a PAYGO basis.

There is no provision in the current Financial Plan to pre-fund OPEB liabilities. If suchliabilities were pre-funded, the additional cost above the PAYGO amounts would be lowered.The States Health Insurance Council, which consists of GOER, Civil Service, and DOB, willcontinue to review this matter and seek input from the State Comptroller, the legislative fiscal

committees and other outside parties. However, it is not expected that the State will alter itsplanned funding practices in light of existing fiscal conditions.

BOND MARKET

Implementation of the Financial Plan is dependent on the State's ability to market its bondssuccessfully. The State finances much of its capital spending in the first instance from theGeneral Fund or STIP, which it then reimburses with proceeds from the sale of bonds. If theState cannot sell bonds at the levels (or on the timetable) expected in the capital plan, the Statesoverall cash position and capital funding plan may be affected adversely. The success ofprojected public sales is subject to prevailing market conditions. Future developments in the

financial markets generally, as well as future developments concerning the State, may affect themarket for outstanding State-supported and State-related debt.

DEBT REFORM ACT LIMIT

The Debt Reform Act of 2000 restricts the issuance of State-supported debt to capitalpurposes only and limits such debt to a maximum term of 30 years. The Act limits the amount ofnew State-supported debt to 4 percent of State personal income and new State-supported debtservice costs to 5 percent of All Funds receipts. The restrictions apply to all new State-supporteddebt issued on and after April 1, 2000. The cap on new State-supported debt outstanding began at0.75 percent of personal income in FY 2001 and was fully phased in at 4 percent of personal

income during FY 2011, while the cap on new State-supported debt service costs began at 0.75percent of All Funds receipts in FY 2001 and will increase until it is fully phased in at 5 percentduring FY 2014.

The statute requires that the limitations on the amount of State-supported debt and debtservice costs be calculated by October 31 of each year and reported in the Mid-Year FinancialPlan. If the actual amount of new State-supported debt outstanding and debt service costs for theprior fiscal year are below the caps at this time, State-supported debt may continue to be issued.


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However, if either the debt outstanding or the debt service caps are met or exceeded, the Statewould be precluded from issuing new State-supported debt until the next annual cap calculationis made and debt is found to be within the applicable limitations.

For FY 2012, the cumulative debt outstanding and debt service caps are 4.00 and 4.65

percent, respectively. As shown in the table below, the actual levels of debt outstanding and debtservice costs continue to remain below the statutory caps. From April 1, 2000 through March31, 2012 the State has issued new debt resulting in $35.8 billion of debt outstanding applicable tothe debt reform cap. This is about $4.0 billion below the statutory debt outstanding limitation.In addition, the debt service costs on this new debt totaled $3.5 billion in FY 2012 or roughly$2.7 billion below the statutory debt service limitation.

Current projections estimate that debt outstanding and debt service will continue to remainbelow the limits imposed by the Act. However, the State is continuing through a period ofrelatively limited debt capacity. Based on the most recent personal income and debt outstandingforecasts, the available room under the debt outstanding cap is expected to decline from $4.0billion (0.40 percent) in FY 2012 to only $509 million (0.05 percent) in FY 2014. The State iscontinuing to consider measures to address capital spending priorities and debt financingpractices in order to stay within the statutory limitations.

The current projections do not account for potential bond-financed capital spending that maybe needed in the aftermath of the Storm to repair damaged infrastructure and mitigate hazardsrelated to climate change.

DEBT OUTSTANDING CAP


New Debt Outstanding $35,803

Personal Income (CY 2011) $995,185

Debt Outstanding (Percent of PI) 3.60%

Cap Imposed by Debt Reform Act 4.00%

DEBT SERVICE CAP


New Debt Service $3,473

Governmental Funds Receipts $132,745

Debt Service (Percent of Govtl Fund

Receipts)

2.62%

Cap Imposed by Debt Reform Act 4.65%


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Personal Actual/ $ %

Year Income Cap % Recommended % (Above)/Below Cap (Above)/Below Cap

FY 2012 995,185 4.00% 3.60% 4,004 0.40%

FY 2013 1,021,501 4.00% 3.86% 1,470 0.14%

FY 2014 1,062,812 4.00% 3.95% 509 0.05%

FY 2015 1,126,170 4.00% 3.92% 923 0.08%

FY 2016 1,189,498 4.00% 3.86% 1,611 0.14%

FY 2017 1,253,464 4.00% 3.76% 2,947 0.24%

All Funds Actual/ $ %

Year Receipts Cap % Recommended % (Above)/Below Cap (Above)/Below Cap

FY 2012 132,745 4.65% 2.62% 2,700 2.03%

FY 2013 133,353 4.98% 2.85% 2,843 2.13%

FY 2014 138,315 5.00% 2.97% 2,810 2.03%

FY 2015 141,844 5.00% 3.07% 2,741 1.93%

FY 2016 146,492 5.00% 3.14% 2,721 1.86%

FY 2017 152,247 5.00% 3.19% 2,750 1.81%

NEW DEBT SERVICE COSTS - CAPPED AT 5 PERCENT OF ALL FUNDS RECEIPTS


NEW DEBT OUTSTANDING - CAPPED AT 4 PERCENT OF PERSONAL INCOME


SECURED HOSPITAL PROGRAM

Under the Secured Hospital program, the State entered into service contracts to enable certainfinancially distressed not-for-profit hospitals to issue debt. The contracts obligate the State to paydebt service, subject to annual appropriations by the Legislature, on bonds issued by the New

York State MCFFA and by DASNY through the Secured Hospital program. In the event thereare shortfalls in revenues from other sources, which include hospital payments made under loanagreements between DASNY and the hospitals, and certain reserve funds held by the applicabletrustees for the bonds, the State is liable for the debt service. As of March 31, 2012, there wasabout $503 million of outstanding bonds for the program.

The financial condition of most hospitals in the States Secured Hospital program continuesto deteriorate. Of the nine hospitals in the program, several are experiencing significantoperating losses that are likely to impair their ability to remain current on their loan agreementswith DASNY. In relation to the Secured Hospital program, the Financial Plan projectionscontinue to reflect the assumption of additional costs of $3 million in FY 2013, $32 million inFY 2014, and $39 million annually thereafter. These amounts are based on the experience ofhospitals in the program, and would cover the debt service costs associated with four hospitalsthat have not been meeting the terms of their agreements with DASNY. The State has additionalexposure of up to a maximum of $39 million annually, if all additional hospitals in the programfail to meet the terms of their agreements with DASNY and if available reserve funds were to bedepleted.


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MULTI-YEAR FINANCIAL PLAN PROJECTIONS


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INTRODUCTION

This section presents the States updated multi-year Financial Plan and the projections forreceipts and disbursements, reflecting the impact of the revisions to the First Quarterly Updatedescribed in this Updated Financial Plan. This section includes FY 2012 results and projectionsfor FY 2013 through FY 2016, with an emphasis on the FY 2013 projections.

The States cash-basis budgeting system, complex fund structure, and practice of earmarkingcertain tax receipts for specific purposes, complicate the discussion of the States receipts anddisbursements projections. Therefore, to minimize the distortions caused by these factors and,equally important, to highlight relevant aspects of the projections, DOB has adopted thefollowing approaches in summarizing the projections:

Receipts: The detailed discussion of tax receipts covers projections for both the GeneralFund and State Funds (including capital projects). The latter perspective reflects overallestimated tax receipts before their diversion among various funds and accounts, includingtax receipts dedicated to capital projects funds (which fall outside of the General Fundand State Operating Funds accounting perspectives). DOB believes this presentationprovides a clearer picture of projected receipts, trends and forecast assumptions, byfactoring out the distorting effects of earmarking certain tax receipts.

Disbursements: Over 40 percent of projected State-financed spending for operatingpurposes is accounted for outside of the General Fund and is primarily concentrated inthe areas of health care, School Aid, higher education, transportation and mental hygiene.

To provide a clearer picture of spending commitments, the multi-year projections andgrowth rates are presented, where appropriate, on both a General Fund and StateOperating Funds basis.

In evaluating the States multi-year operating forecast, it should be noted that the reliabilityof the estimates and projections as a predictor of the States future financial position is likely todiminish the further removed such estimates and projections are from the date of this UpdatedFinancial Plan. Accordingly, in terms of out-year projections (FY 2014 through FY 2016), FY2014 is the most relevant from a planning perspective.


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MULTI-YEAR SUMMARY

The following tables present the multi-year projections and growth rates for the GeneralFund and State Operating Funds, as well as a reconciliation between the State Operating Fundsprojections and the General Fund budget gaps.3 The tables are followed by an updated economic

forecast and a summary of the multi-year receipts and disbursements forecasts.

FY 2012

Results

FY 2013

Updated

FY 2014

Projected

FY 2015

Projected

FY 2016

Projected

Receipts

Taxes (After Debt Service) 52,634 54,314 57,712 58,739 61,037

Miscellaneous Receipts/Federal Grants 3,222 3,801 2,789 2,232 2,324

Other Transfers 1,044 954 832 744 792

Total Receipts 56,900 59,069 61,333 61,715 64,153

Disbursements

Local Assistance Grants 38,419 39,816 41,653 43,082 45,358School Aid 16,778 17,003 17,832 18,630 19,585

Medicaid 10,301 10,808 11,343 11,676 12,429

All Other 11,340 12,005 12,478 12,776 13,344

State Operations 7,494 7,951 7,097 7,385 7,774

Personal Service 5,781 6,161 5,501 5,646 5,946

Non-Personal Service 1,713 1,790 1,596 1,739 1,828

General State Charges 4,720 4,623 5,042 5,365 5,611

Gross State Pension Contribution 1,697 1,605 2,057 2,271 2,449

Gross State Employee Health Insurance 3,275 3,200 3,423 3,597 3,827

Fringe Benefit Escrow Offset/Fixed Costs (252) (182) (438) (503) (665)

Transfers to Other Funds 5,856 6,992 8,606 9,463 9,766

Debt Service 1,516 1,564 1,617 1,514 1,488

Capital Projects 798 1,033 1,290 1,409 1,322

State Share Medicaid 2,722 2,975 2,759 2,615 2,520

Mental Hygiene 0 0 789 1,689 2,292

SUNY - Disproportionate Share Payments 225 228 228 228 228

SUNY - University Operations Subsidy 0 340 983 1,002 1,022

SUNY - Hospital Operations Subsidy 60 81 88 88 88

Department of Transportation (MTA Tax) 22 279 332 334 334

Court Facilities Incentive Aid Fund 114 106 107 108 109

All Other 399 386 413 476 363

Total Disbursements 56,489 59,382 62,398 65,295 68,509

Change in Reserves 411 (313) (83) 10 14

Budget Surplus/(Gap) Projections 0 0 (982) (3,590) (4,370)

GENERAL FUND PROJECTIONS


3The annual imbalances projected for the General Fund and State Operating Funds in future years are similar because the General Fund is thefinancing source of last resort for many State programs. Imbalances in other funds are typically financed by the General Fund.


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FY 2012

Results

FY 2013

Updated

FY 2014

Projected

FY 2015

Projected

FY 2016

Projected

Receipts

Taxes 62,960 64,741 68,593 70,122 72,868

Miscellaneous Receipts/Federal Grants 19,656 20,449 19,890 19,608 19,858

Total Receipts 82,616 85,190 88,483 89,730 92,726

Disbursements

Local Assistance Grants 57,267 58,705 61,215 63,348 65,713

School Aid 19,662 20,056 20,911 21,714 22,671

STAR 3,233 3,276 3,459 3,642 3,744

Other Education Aid 1,698 1,975 2,004 2,087 2,199

Higher Education 2,608 2,618 2,812 2,888 2,967

Medicaid (DOH incl. administration) 15,297 15,860 16,513 17,049 17,895

Public Health/Aging 2,104 2,037 2,172 2,287 2,065

Mental Hygiene 3,756 3,644 3,799 4,034 4,345

Social Services 3,017 3,056 3,115 3,239 3,347Transportation 4,230 4,378 4,556 4,634 4,730

Local Government Assistance 754 763 772 783 792

All Other 1 908 1,042 1,102 991 958

State Operations 17,451 17,993 18,017 18,498 19,156

Personal Service 12,047 12,518 12,511 12,823 13,314

Non-Personal Service 5,404 5,475 5,506 5,675 5,842

General State Charges 6,593 6,617 7,217 7,656 8,085

Pension Contribution 1,697 1,605 2,057 2,271 2,449

Health Insurance (Active Employees) 2,052 1,772 1,902 1,960 2,065

Health Insurance (Retired Employees) 1,223 1,428 1,521 1,637 1,762

All Other 1,621 1,812 1,737 1,788 1,809

Debt Service 5,864 6,100 6,415 6,484 6,645

Capital Projects 6 5 5 5 5

Total Disbursements 87,181 89,420 92,869 95,991 99,604

Net Other Financing Sources/(Uses) 4,443 4,086 3,648 3,143 2,929

Net Operating Surplus/(Deficit) (122) (144) (738) (3,118) (3,949)

Reconciliation to General Fund Gap:

Designated Fund Balances 122 144 (244) (472) (421)

General Fund (411) 313 83 (10) (14)

Special Revenue Funds 507 (113) (213) (325) (406)

Debt Service Funds 26 (56) (114) (137) (1)

General Fund Budget Gap 0 0 (982) (3,590) (4,370)

1

STATE OPERATING FUNDS PROJECTIONS


All Other includes spending in a number of other programs, including parks and the environment, economic

development, and public safety.


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CHANGE FROM FIRST QUARTERLY UPDATE

$ % $ %

Change Change Change Change

General Fund1 46,707 47,014 307 0.7% 48,718 48,618 (100) -0.2%

Taxes 43,293 43,213 (80) -0.2% 45,837 45,829 (8) 0.0%

Miscellaneous Receipts 3,354 3,741 387 11.5% 2,879 2,787 (92) -3.2%

Federal Grants 60 60 0 0.0% 2 2 0 0.0%

State Funds 90,769 90,807 38 0.0% 94,448 93,949 (499) -0.5%

Taxes 66,307 66,140 (167) -0.3% 70,065 70,012 (53) -0.1%


Federal Grants 145 145 0 0.0% 87 87 0 0.0%

All Funds 133,443 133,351 (92) -0.1% 138,733 138,315 (418) -0.3%

Taxes 66,307 66,140 (167) -0.3% 70,065 70,012 (53) -0.1%


Federal Grants 42,633 42,503 (130) -0.3% 44,186 44,267 81 0.2%

1 Excludes Transfers.

First

Quarter

Mid-Year

Update

Mid-Year

Update

CHANGE FROM FIRST QUARTERLY UPDATE FORECAST


FY 2013 FY 2014

First

Quarter

Miscellaneous receipts have been revised up by $205 million, largely offset by minordecreases in receipts.

General Fund receipts for FY 2013 have been revised up by $307 million from the FirstQuarterly Update, reflecting a $387 million increase in miscellaneous receipts, offset by an $80million decrease in taxes.

MULTI-YEARRECEIPTS

FY 2013 FY 2014 Annual $ FY 2015 Annual $ FY 2016 Annual $

Updated Projected Change Projected Change Projected Change

General Fund 59,069 61,333 2,264 61,715 382 64,153 2,438

Taxes 43,213 45,829 2,616 46,501 672 48,418 1,917

State Funds 90,807 93,949 3,142 94,970 1,021 98,002 3,032

Taxes 66,140 70,012 3,872 71,551 1,539 74,314 2,763

All Funds 133,351 138,315 4,964 141,845 3,530 146,493 4,648

Taxes 66,140 70,012 3,872 71,551 1,539 74,314 2,763

TOTAL RECEIPTS



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The economic forecast calls for a continuation of the modest recovery in employment andwages. This projected increase in the economic base supports the outyear revenue forecast.Overall, receipts growth in the two fiscal years following FY 2014 is expected to be consistentwith the projected moderate growth in both the U.S. and New York economies.

REVENUE RISKS

The potential economic impact of the Storm presents a large revenue risk, but it is tooearly to make a full assessment.

DOBs forecast assumes that combined Federal spending reductions and tax increases -the so-called fiscal cliff at the end of 2012 - are largely averted. If the fiscal cliffoccurs and the economy contracts, New York revenues could grow more slowly thananticipated.

A further increase in already high gasoline prices could divert disposable consumer

income to fuel, decreasing consumption of taxable goods and services.

A deepening European recession could drive exports lower and, in turn, cause corporateprofits and tax receipts to grow more slowly than expected.

PIT liability could be reduced if taxpayers do not realize the capital gains assumed in theforecast in anticipation of the Affordable Care Act tax provisions.

The FY 2013 Financial Plan contains significant savings generated as a result of 2010 taxcredit deferral legislation. Same-year confirmation of these savings is unavailable giventax filing and processing delays, and actual savings could fall below estimates.

Bank and corporate franchise tax revenue streams are contingent on the timing and sizeof anticipated audit proceeds. Negotiations between the State and taxpayers are subjectto unexpected delays, which may force audit proceeds into a subsequent fiscal year.


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PERSONAL INCOME TAX

All Funds PIT receipts for FY 2013 are projected to be $40.2 billion, an increase of $1.4billion (3.6 percent) from FY 2012. This primarily reflects modest increases in withholding,current estimated payments for tax year 2012, a decrease in total refunds, and higher delinquentcollections partially offset by a decrease in extension (i.e. prior year estimated) payments for taxyear 2011.

Withholding in FY 2013 is projected to be $974 million (3.1 percent) higher compared tothe prior year. This reflects the net impact of modest wage growth and additional withholdinggenerated by the December 2011 reform, offset by lower withholding due to the expiration of thetemporary high income surcharge in place for 2009 to 2011. Total estimated payments are

expected to increase $124 million (1.1 percent). Estimated payments for tax year 2012 areprojected to be $462 million (5.7 percent) higher. However, as noted above, extension payments(i.e. prior year estimated) for tax year 2011 are projected to fall 9.6 percent ($338 million)compared to the inflated base of extensions for tax year 2010, which reflected the one-timerealization of capital gains caused by uncertainty surrounding the late extension of the lowerFederal tax rates on capital gains and high-income taxpayers in December of 2010. Delinquentcollections and final return payments are projected to be $88 million (8.1 percent) and $36million (1.7 percent) higher, respectively.

The decrease in total refunds of $172 million mostly reflects a $118 million (32.2 percent)decrease in the State-city offset and a $93 million (2 percent) decrease in prior year refunds

related to tax year 2011 partly reduced by $39 million (8.3 percent) increase in previous yearsrefunds related to tax years prior to 2011.

General Fund income tax receipts for FY 2013 of $26.8 billion are expected to increase by$1.0 billion (3.9 percent), from the prior year, mainly reflecting the increase in All Fundsreceipts noted above. Deposits to the RBTF and to the STAR fund are expected to increase $350million (3.6 percent) and $43 million (1. 3 percent), respectively.

FY 2012 FY 2013 Annual $ Annual % FY 2014 Annual $ Annual %

Results Updated Change Change Projected Change Change

General Fund1

25,843 26,844 1,001 3.9% 28,920 2,076 7.7%

Gross Collections 46,030 47,252 1,222 2.7% 50,354 3,102 6.6%

Refunds/Offsets (7,263) (7,091) 172 -2.4% (7,182) (91) 1.3%

STAR (3,233) (3,276) (43) 1.3% (3,459) (183) 5.6%

RBTF (9,691) (10,041) (350) 3.6% (10,793) (752) 7.5%

State/All Funds 38,767 40,161 1,394 3.6% 43,172 3,011 7.5%

Gross Collections 46,030 47,252 1,222 2.7% 50,354 3,102 6.6%

Refunds (7,263) (7,091) 172 -2.4% (7,182) (91) 1.3%

1Excludes Transfers.


PERSONAL INCOME TAX


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All Funds income tax receipts for FY 2014 of $43.2 billion are projected to increase $3.0billion (7.5 percent) from the prior year. This primarily reflects increases of $2.2 billion (6.7percent) in withholding, $810 million (6.9 percent) in total estimated payments, partially offsetby a $91 million (1.3 percent) increase in total refunds. The increase in total estimated paymentsincludes $538 million (6.3 percent) in estimated payments related to tax year 2013 and $272

million (8.5 percent) in extension (i.e. prior year estimated) payments related to tax year 2012.The strong projection for extension payments for tax year 2012 reflects early realization ofcapital gains due to the scheduled increase in Federal tax rates on investment income startingwith tax year 2013 as a part of the Federal Affordable Care Act.

Payments from final returns are expected to increase $113 million (5.3 percent) whiledelinquent collections are projected to increase by $10 million (0.8 percent ) compared to theprior year. The increase in total refunds of $91 million primarily reflects a $183 million (4.0percent) increase in prior year refunds 2012 partially offset by $50 million (20.2 percent) drop inthe state-city-offset and $42 million decrease in previous years refunds related to tax years priorto 2012.

General Fund income tax receipts for FY 2014 of $28.9 billion are projected to increase by$2.1 billion (7.7 percent). The RBTF and STAR fund deposits are projected to increase by $752million (7.5 percent) and $183 million (5.6 percent), respectively.

The following table summarizes, by component, actual receipts for FY 2012 and forecastamounts through FY 2016.


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FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

(Actual) (Updated) (Projected) (Projected) (Projected)

Withholding 31,199 32,173 34,342 35,558 37,648

Estimated Payments 11,628 11,752 12,563 13,477 13,360

Current Year 8,097 8,559 9,097 10,143 9,823

Prior Year1 3,532 3,193 3,466 3,334 3,537

Final Returns 2,117 2,153 2,266 2,151 2,251

Current Year 224 227 241 242 242

Prior Year1 1,893 1,926 2,025 1,909 2,009

Delinquent Collections 1,086 1,174 1,184 1,235 1,285

Gross Receipts 46,030 47,252 50,354 52,421 54,544

Refunds

Prior Year1 4,693 4,600 4,783 5,614 6,282

Previous Years 454 493 451 569 553

Current Year

1 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750

State-City Offset1 366 248 198 148 148

Total Refunds 7,263 7,091 7,182 8,081 8,733

Net Receipts 38,767 40,161 43,172 44,340 45,811

Totals may not equal sum of components due to rounding.

PERSONAL INCOME TAX FISCAL YEAR COLLECTION COMPONENTS

ALL FUNDS


1 These components, collectively, are known as the settlement on the prior years tax liability.

$ % $ %


General Fund1 26,916 26,844 (72) -0.3% 28,920 28,920 0 0.0%

Gross Collections 47,252 47,252 0 0.0% 50,354 50,354 0 0.0%

Refunds/Offsets (6,996) (7,091) (95) 1.4% (7,182) (7,182) 0 0.0%

STAR (3,276) (3,276) 0 0.0% (3,459) (3,459) 0 0.0%

RBTF (10,064) (10,041) 23 -0.2% (10,793) (10,793) 0 0.0%

State/All Funds 40,256 40,161 (95) -0.2% 43,172 43,172 0 0.0%

Gross Collections 47,252 47,252 0 0.0% 50,354 50,354 0 0.0%

Refunds (6,996) (7,091) (95) 1.4% (7,182) (7,182) 0 0.0%

1Excludes Transfers.

Mid-Year

Update

Mid-Year

Update

FY 2014

First

Quarter

First

Quarter

PERSONAL INCOME TAX CHANGE FROM FIRST QUARTERLY UPDATE FORECAST


FY 2013

Compared to the First Quarterly Update, FY 2013 All Funds income tax receipts are

projected to decrease by $95 million. The state-city offset is projected to increase by $50 millionreflecting higher offset transfers unfavorable to the State. Likewise, the $45 million increase inprevious years refunds related to tax years prior to 2011 reflects higher than projected refundsinventory.

Compared to the First Quarterly Update, FY 2014 All Funds income tax receipts areunchanged.


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FY 2014 FY 2015 Annual $ FY 2016 Annual $

Projected Projected Change Projected Change

General Fund

1

28,920 29,613 693 30,614 1,001Gross Collections 50,354 52,421 2,067 54,544 2,123

Refunds/Offsets (7,182) (8,081) (899) (8,733) (652)

STAR (3,459) (3,642) (183) (3,744) (102)

RBTF (10,793) (11,085) (292) (11,453) (368)

State/All Funds 43,172 44,340 1,168 45,811 1,471

Gross Collections 50,354 52,421 2,067 54,544 2,123

Refunds (7,182) (8,081) (899) (8,733) (652)


PERSONAL INCOME TAX


All Funds income tax receipts for FY 2015 of $44.3 billion are projected to increase $1.2

billion (2.7 percent) from the prior year. This change primarily reflects increases of $1.2 billion(3.5 percent) in withholding, $915 million (7.3 percent) in total estimated payments partiallyoffset by an $899 million (12.5 percent) increase in total refunds and a $115 million (5.1 percent)decrease in final returns payments for tax year 2013. Delinquencies are projected to increase $52million (4.4 percent) from the prior year. The increase in total refunds of $899 million almostentirely reflects an increase in current refunds for tax year 2013 due mainly to the beginning ofthe tax credit deferral payback.

General Fund income tax receipts for FY 2015 of $29.6 billion are projected to increase by$693 million (2.4 percent). The RBTF and STAR fund deposits are projected to increase by $292million (2.7 percent) and $183 million (5.3 percent), respectively

All Funds income tax receipts are projected to increase by nearly $1.5 billion (3.3 percent) inFY 2016 to reach $45.8 billion while General Fund receipts are projected to be $30.6 billion.


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USERTAXESANDFEES



General Fund1 9,055 9,189 134 1.5% 9,563 374 4.1%

Sales Tax 8,346 8,484 138 1.7% 8,864 380 4.5%

Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 471 461 (10) -2.1% 454 (7) -1.5%

Alcoholic Beverage Taxes 238 244 6 2.5% 245 1 0.4%

State/All Funds 14,571 14,784 213 1.5% 15,304 520 3.5%

Sales Tax 11,876 12,095 219 1.8% 12,635 540 4.5%

Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 1,633 1,585 (48) -2.9% 1,555 (30) -1.9%

Motor Fuel 501 515 14 2.8% 517 2 0.4%

Highway Use Tax 132 147 15 11.4% 142 (5) -3.4%

Alcoholic Beverage Taxes 238 244 6 2.5% 245 1 0.4%

Taxicab Surcharge 87 89 2 2.3% 96 7 7.9%

Auto Rental Tax 104 109 5 4.8% 114 5 4.6%



USER TAXES AND FEES

All Funds user taxes and fees receipts for FY 2013 are estimated to be $14.8 billion, anincrease of $213 million (1.5 percent) from FY 2012. Overall, sales tax receipts are estimated toincrease by $219 million (1.8 percent) compared with FY 2012. Non-sales tax user taxes andfees are estimated to decrease by $6 million from FY 2012 due primarily to a decrease incigarette and tobacco tax collections ($48 million) partially offset by an estimated increase inHUT collections ($15 million). HUT collections will increase since this is a triennialregistration year, while taxable cigarette consumption has decreased.

General Fund user taxes and fees receipts are expected to total $9.2 billion in FY 2013, an

increase of $134 million (1.5 percent) from FY 2012. Sales tax receipts will increase by$138 million (1.7 percent) while cigarette and tobacco tax collections are estimated to decline by$10 million. Alcohol beverage tax receipts are estimated to increase by $6 million.

All Funds user taxes and fees receipts for FY 2014 are projected to be $15.3 billion, anincrease of $520 million (3.5 percent) from FY 2013. Sales tax receipts are projected to increaseby $540 million (4.5 percent) due to projected growth in New York disposable income, lightvehicle sales and employment. Cigarette tax collections are projected to decline by $30 milliondue to a projected continuation of a long-term decline in consumption. General Fund user taxesand fees receipts are projected to total nearly $9.6 billion in FY 2014, an increase of $374million (4.1 percent) from FY 2013.


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$ % $ %


General Fund1

9,196 9,189 (7) -0.1% 9,570 9,563 (7) -0.1%Sales Tax 8,483 8,484 1 0.0% 8,863 8,864 1 0.0%

Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 469 461 (8) -1.7% 462 454 (8) -1.7%

Alcoholic Beverage Taxes 244 244 0 0.0% 245 245 0 0.0%

State/All Funds 14,814 14,784 (30) -0.2% 15,334 15,304 (30) -0.2%

Sales Tax 12,095 12,095 0 0.0% 12,635 12,635 0 0.0%

Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 1,615 1,585 (30) -1.9% 1,585 1,555 (30) -1.9%

Motor Fuel 515 515 0 0.0% 516 517 1 0.2%

Highway Use Tax 147 147 0 0.0% 142 142 0 0.0%

Alcoholic Beverage Taxes 244 244 0 0.0% 245 245 0 0.0%

Taxicab Surcharge 89 89 0 0.0% 96 96 0 0.0%

Auto Rental Tax 109 109 0 0.0% 115 114 (1) -0.9%


First

Quarter

First

Quarter

Mid-Year

Update

Mid-Year

Update

FY 2014FY 2013

USER TAXES AND FEES CHANGE FROM FIRST QUARTERLY UPDATE FORECAST


All Funds user taxes and fees for FY 2013 are estimated to be $14.8 billion, a decline of$30 million (0.2 percent) from the First Quarterly Update. The cigarette and tobacco taxesestimate is revised downward by $30 million to reflect lower than anticipated consumption.General Fund user taxes and fees receipts are estimated to be $9.2 billion in FY 2013, a decreaseof $7 million from the First Quarterly Update.

All Funds user taxes and fees for FY 2014 are projected to be $15.3 billion, a decrease of$30 million (0.2 percent) from the First Quarterly Update. General Fund user taxes and feesreceipts are projected to be $9.6 billion in FY 2014, a decrease of $7 million from the FirstQuarterly Update.



General Fund1 9,563 9,978 415 10,343 365

Sales Tax 8,864 9,281 417 9,654 373

Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 454 447 (7) 439 (8)

Alcoholic Beverage Taxes 245 250 5 250 0

State/All Funds 15,304 15,880 576 16,395 515

Sales Tax 12,635 13,221 586 13,748 527

Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 1,555 1,526 (29) 1,496 (30)

Motor Fuel 517 520 3 524 4

Highway Use Tax 142 144 2 152 8

Alcoholic Beverage Taxes 245 250 5 250 0

Taxicab Surcharge 96 100 4 101 1

Auto Rental Tax 114 119 5 124 5


USER TAXES AND FEES



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All Funds user taxes and fees are projected to be $15.9 billion in FY 2015, an increase of$576 million (3.8 percent) from FY 2014. General Fund receipts are projected to be nearly $10billion, an increase of $415 million (4.3 percent). All Funds user taxes and fees are projected tobe $16.4 billion in FY 2016, an increase of $515 million (3.2 percent) from FY 2015. GeneralFund receipts are projected to be $10.3 billion, an increase of $365 million (3.7 percent).

All Funds and General Funds receipts estimates essentially reflect trend growth rates intaxable consumption.

BUSINESS TAXES



General Fund 5,760 6,035 275 4.8% 6,208 173 2.9%

Corporate Franchise Tax 2,724 2,635 (89) -3.3% 2,836 201 7.6%

Corporation & Utilities Tax 617 660 43 7.0% 638 (22) -3.3%

Insurance Tax 1,257 1,301 44 3.5% 1,364 63 4.8%

Bank Tax 1,161 1,439 278 23.9% 1,370 (69) -4.8%

Petroleum Business Tax 1 0 (1) -100.0% 0 0 0.0%

State/All Funds 7,877 8,210 333 4.2% 8,440 230 2.8%

Corporate Franchise Tax 3,176 3,036 (140) -4.4% 3,279 243 8.0%

Corporation & Utilities Tax 797 844 47 5.9% 822 (22) -2.6%

Insurance Tax 1,413 1,458 45 3.2% 1,531 73 5.0%

Bank Tax 1,391 1,710 319 22.9% 1,608 (102) -6.0%

Petroleum Business Tax 1,100 1,162 62 5.6% 1,200 38 3.3%

BUSINESS TAXES


All Funds business tax receipts for FY 2013 are estimated at $8.2 billion, an increase of $333

million (4.2 percent) from the prior year. The estimates reflect growth across all taxes, with theexception of the corporate franchise tax. The estimate includes an incremental $71 million ($313million in FY 2012 to $384 million in FY 2013) from the deferral of certain tax credits that waspart of the FY 2011 Enacted Budget.

The annual decline in the corporate franchise tax of $140 million (4.4 percent) is attributableto weakness in tax year 2012 payments as well as lower audit receipts. Tax year 2012 paymentsare expected to decline 6.8 percent from the prior year. Fewer large audit cases contribute to the24.3 percent decline in year-over-year audit receipts.

The corporation and utilities tax is expected to increase $47 million (5.9 percent) from

FY 2012. A large telecommunications audit was received in the first quarter of FY 2013resulting in estimated year-over-year annual growth of nearly $29 million (100 percent) in auditcollections. Gross receipts are expected to be flat compared to FY 2012 as revenue has beenaffected by declining revenue from the telecommunications sector. Numerous changes haveoccurred in this sector over the last several years that have diminished the taxable base. Thesechanges have been highlighted by consumer shifts to mobile and non-cable voice over Internetprotocol telecommunications at the expense of landline telecommunications and the growing useof internet-based communications tools such as Twitter and Facebook.


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Growth in insurance tax receipts ($45 million, 3.2 percent) is expected to be at historicaltrend growth as the economy steadily improves.

The bank tax is estimated to grow $319 million (22.9 percent) in FY 2013 as banks continueto report healthy profits bolstered by a reduction in loan loss reserves and increased refinancing

activity due to low mortgage rates. Tax year 2012 payments from commercial taxpayers areexpected to increase 19.9 percent. Additionally, a large bank audit is expected to be received inthe third quarter of FY 2013.

General Fund business tax receipts for FY 2013 of $6 billion are estimated to increase by$275 million (4.8 percent) from FY 2012 results. Business tax receipts deposited to the GeneralFund reflect the All Funds trends discussed above.

All Funds business tax receipts for FY 2014 of $8.4 billion are projected to increase$230 million (2.8 percent) from the prior year reflecting growth in gross receipts (but not audits)across all business taxes.

General Fund business tax receipts for FY 2014 of $6.2 billion are projected to increase $173million (2.9 percent) from the prior year.

FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013

Actual Actual Actual Actual Updated

Corporate Franchise Tax 3,220 2,511 2,846 3,176 3,036

Audit 905 698 810 1,080 818 Non-Audit 2,315 1,813 2,036 2,096 2,218Corporation and Utilities Taxes 863 954 814 796 844

Audit 47 52 14 29 58 Non-Audit 816 902 800 767 786Insurance Taxes 1,181 1,491 1,351 1,413 1,458

Audit 41 35 38 21 26 Non-Audit 1,140 1,456 1,313 1,392 1,432Bank Taxes 1,233 1,399 1,178 1,392 1,710

Audit 455 290 239 125 317 Non-Audit 778 1,109 939 1,267 1,393Petroleum Business Taxes 1,107 1,104 1,091 1,100 1,162 Audit 16 10 7 6 6 Non-Audit 1,091 1,094 1,084 1,094 1,156

7,604 7,459 7,280 7,877 8,210

Audit 1,464 1,085 1,108 1,261 1,225 Non-Audit 6,140 6,374 6,172 6,616 6,985

ALL FUNDS BUSINESS TAX AUDIT AND NON-AUDIT RECEIPTS


Total Business Taxes


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$ % $ %


General Fund 6,035 6,035 0 0.0% 6,208 6,208 0 0.0%Corporate Franchise Tax 2,737 2,635 (102) -3.7% 2,931 2,836 (95) -3.2%

Corporation & Utilities Tax 684 660 (24) -3.5% 662 638 (24) -3.6%

Insurance Tax 1,322 1,301 (21) -1.6% 1,373 1,364 (9) -0.7%

Bank Tax 1,292 1,439 147 11.4% 1,242 1,370 128 10.3%

State/All Funds 8,226 8,210 (16) -0.2% 8,463 8,440 (23) -0.3%

Corporate Franchise Tax 3,172 3,036 (136) -4.3% 3,413 3,279 (134) -3.9%

Corporation & Utilities Tax 879 844 (35) -4.0% 860 822 (38) -4.4%

Insurance Tax 1,479 1,458 (21) -1.4% 1,539 1,531 (8) -0.5%

Bank Tax 1,534 1,710 176 11.5% 1,451 1,608 157 10.8%

Petroleum Business Tax 1,162 1,162 0 0.0% 1,200 1,200 0 0.0%

FY 2013

BUSINESS TAXES CHANGE FROM FIRST QUARTERLY UPDATE FORECAST


FY 2014

First

Quarter

Mid-Year

Update

First

Quarter

Mid-Year

Update

Compared to the First Quarterly Update, FY 2013 All Funds business tax receipts are reviseddown by $16 million (0.2 percent), while General Fund receipts are unchanged. The decrease inAll Funds receipts is the result of weaker than expected calendar year 2012 payments in all taxes,except the bank tax.

Compared to the First Quarterly Update, FY 2014 All Funds business tax receipts arerevised down by $23 million (0.3 percent) and the General Fund is unchanged. Continuedcalendar year taxpayer weakness in the corporate franchise and corporation and utilities taxes ispartially offset by continued strength in the bank tax.



General Fund 6,208 5,686 (522) 6,237 551

Corporate Franchise Tax 2,836 2,150 (686) 2,526 376

Corporation & Utilities Tax 638 689 51 710 21

Insurance Tax 1,364 1,408 44 1,484 76

Bank Tax 1,370 1,439 69 1,517 78

Petroleum Business Tax 0 0 0 0 0

State/All Funds 8,440 7,973 (467) 8,586 613

Corporate Franchise Tax 3,279 2,625 (654) 3,030 405

Corporation & Utilities Tax 822 875 53 902 27

Insurance Tax 1,531 1,580 49 1,662 82

Bank Tax 1,608 1,688 80 1,781 93

Petroleum Business Tax 1,200 1,205 5 1,211 6

BUSINESS TAXES



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All Funds business tax receipts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 reflect trend growth that isdetermined in part by the expected levels of corporate profits, taxable insurance premiums,electric utility consumption prices, the consumption of telecommunications services andautomobile fuel consumption and fuel prices. All Funds business tax receipts are projected todecline to $8 billion (5.5 percent) in FY 2015, and increase to $8.6 billion (7.7 percent) in

FY 2016. The decline in FY 2015 reflects the first year of the repayment of deferred tax creditsto taxpayers. General Fund business tax receipts over this period are expected to decline to$5.7 billion (8.4 percent) in FY 2015 and increase to $6.2 billion (9.7 percent) in FY 2016.

OTHERTAXES



General Fund1 1,096 1,146 50 4.6% 1,139 (7) -0.6%

Estate Tax 1,078 1,127 49 4.5% 1,120 (7) -0.6%Gift Tax 0 0 0 NA 0 0 0.0%

Real Property Gains Tax 0 0 0 NA 0 0 0.0%

Pari-Mutuel Taxes 17 18 1 5.9% 18 0 0.0%

All Other Taxes 1 1 0 0.0% 1 0 0.0%

State/All Funds 1,706 1,806 100 5.9% 1,874 68 3.8%

Estate Tax 1,078 1,127 49 4.5% 1,120 (7) -0.6%

Gift Tax 0 0 0 NA 0 0 0.0%

Real Property Gains Tax 0 0 0 NA 0 0 0.0%

Real Estate Transfer Tax 610 660 50 8.2% 735 75 11.4%

Pari-Mutuel Taxes 17 18 1 5.9% 18 0 0.0%

All Other Taxes 1 1 0 0.0% 1 0 0.0%


OTHER TAXES(millions of dollars)

All Funds other taxes receipts for FY 2013 are estimated to be just over $1.8 billion, an

increase of $100 million (5.9 percent) from FY 2012. Growth in the estate tax of $49 million(4.5 percent) and in the real estate transfer tax of $50 million (8.2 percent) reflect an expectedincrease in household net worth and a recovering real estate market.

General Fund other taxes receipts are expected to total over $1.1 billion in FY 2013, anincrease of $50 million (4.6 percent) from FY 2012. This is almost entirely attributable to theincrease in the estate tax noted above.

All Funds other taxes receipts for FY 2014 are projected to be nearly $1.9 billion, an increase

of $68 million (3.8 percent) from FY 2013, driven almost entirely by the strong growth in thereal estate transfer tax of $75 million (11.4 percent). The real estate transfer tax increase isdriven by a combination of a projected increase in both NY housing starts and average NYhousing price.


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$ % $ %


General Fund1

1,146 1,146 0 0.0% 1,139 1,139 0 0.0%Estate Tax 1,127 1,127 0 0.0% 1,120 1,120 0 0.0%

Gift Tax 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0.0%

Real Property Gains Tax 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0.0%

Pari-Mutuel Taxes 18 18 0 0.0% 18 18 0 0.0%

All Other Taxes 1 1 0 0.0% 1 1 0 0.0%

State/All Funds 1,831 1,806 (25) -1.4% 1,874 1,874 0 0.0%

Estate Tax 1,127 1,127 0 0.0% 1,120 1,120 0 0.0%

Gift Tax 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0.0%

Real Property Gains Tax 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0.0%

Real Estate Transfer Tax 685 660 (25) -3.6% 735 735 0 0.0%

Pari-Mutuel Taxes 18 18 0 0.0% 18 18 0 0.0%

All Other Taxes 1 1 0 0.0% 1 1 0 0.0%


Mid-Year

Update

OTHER TAXES CHANGE FROM FIRST QUARTERLY UPDATE FORECAST

FY 2014


FY 2013

First

Quarter

First

Quarter

Mid-Year

Update

All Funds other taxes for FY 2013 have been revised downward by $25 million (1.4 percent)from the First Quarterly Update estimate, primarily due to year-to-date real estate transfer taxreceipts. All Funds other taxes receipts for FY 2014 are changed from the First QuarterlyUpdate.

General Fund other taxes receipts for FY 2013 are unchanged from the First QuarterlyUpdate.



General Fund1 1,139 1,224 85 1,224 0

Estate Tax 1,120 1,205 85 1,205 0

Gift Tax 0 0 0 0 0

Real Property Gains Tax 0 0 0 0 0

Pari-Mutuel Taxes 18 18 0 18 0

All Other Taxes 1 1 0 1 0

State/All Funds 1,874 2,029 155 2,104 75

Estate Tax 1,120 1,205 85 1,205 0

Gift Tax 0 0 0 0 0

Real Property Gains Tax 0 0 0 0 0

Real Estate Transfer Tax 735 805 70 880 75

Pari-Mutuel Taxes 18 18 0 18 0

All Other Taxes 1 1 0 1 0


OTHER TAXES(millions of dollars)


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The FY 2015 All Funds receipts projection for other taxes is $2.0 billion, up $155 million(8.3 percent) from FY 2014 receipts. Moderate growth in the estate tax is projected to followexpected increases in household net worth. Receipts from the real estate transfer tax areprojected to increase substantially, reflecting expected improvement in residential andcommercial real estate markets.

The FY 2016 All Funds receipts projection for other taxes of over $2.1 billion is up $75million (3.7 percent) from FY 2015 receipts. The forecast reflects continued projected increasesin household net worth and the value of real estate transfers.

MISCELLANEOUSRECEIPTSANDFEDERALGRANTS



General Fund 3,222 3,801 579 18.0% 2,789 (1,012) -26.6%

Miscellaneous Receipts 3,162 3,741 579 18.3% 2,787 (954) -25.5%

Federal Grants 60 60 0 0.0% 2 (58) -96.7%

State Funds 23,814 24,667 853 3.6% 23,937 (730) -3.0%


Federal Grants 145 145 0 0.0% 87 (58) -40.0%

All Funds 68,448 67,211 (1,237) -1.8% 68,303 1,092 1.6%


Federal Grants 44,611 42,503 (2,108) -4.7% 44,267 1,764 4.2%

MISCELLANEOUS RECEIPTSAND FEDERAL GRANTS


All Funds miscellaneous receipts include moneys received from HCRA financing

sources, SUNY tuition and patient income, lottery receipts for education, assessments onregulated industries, and a variety of fees and licenses. All Funds miscellaneous receipts areprojected to total $24.7 billion in FY 2013, an annual increase of $871 million from FY 2012results, which is mainly due to projected growth in receipts to the HCRA fund, receipts from asettlement agreement between Standard Chartered Bank and the State, resources and recoveriesfrom public authorities, and the receipt of civil recoveries made by district attorneys.

Federal grants help pay for State spending on Medicaid, temporary and disability assistance,mental hygiene, school aid, public health, and other activities. Annual changes to Federal grantsgenerally correspond to changes in Federally-reimbursed spending and Federal allocations.While the timing of Federal receipts can sometimes be difficult to predict, DOB typically plans

that Federal reimbursement will be received in the State fiscal year in which spending occurs.All Funds Federal grants are projected to total $42.5 billion in FY 2013, a decrease of $2.1billion from FY 2012, which largely reflects the expiration of certain Federal ARRA moneys.

General Fund miscellaneous receipts are projected to total over $3.7 billion in FY 2013, anincrease of $579 million from FY 2012 results, which is mainly due to one-time payments fromthe Standard Chartered Bank Settlement, resources and recoveries from public authorities, andcivil recoveries made by district attorneys.


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Total General Fund receipts in FY 2014 are expected to decline by $1.0 billion, reflecting adecline from the level of FY 2013 receipts which included one-time payments, and anacceleration of Abandoned Property proceeds.

$ % $ %


General Fund1 3,414 3,801 387 11.3% 2,881 2,789 (92) -3.2%


Federal Grants 60 60 0 0.0% 2 2 0 0.0%

State Funds 24,462 24,667 205 0.8% 24,383 23,937 (446) -1.8%


Federal Grants 145 145 0 0.0% 87 87 0 0.0%

All Funds 67,136 67,211 75 0.1% 68,668 68,303 (365) -0.5%


Federal Grants 42,633 42,503 (130) -0.3% 44,186 44,267 81 0.2%


First

Quarter

Mid-Year

Update

Mid-Year

Update

First

Quarter

FY 2013 FY 2014

MISCELLANEOUS RECEIPTS AND FEDERAL GRANTS: CHANG

mid-year update to the financial plan for fiscal year 2013

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