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Managing the Innovation Process
Methods of Trend Analysis and Opportunity Recognition
Trend analysis
FEI
Trend Analysis
Opportunity Analysis
Idea Generation
& Enrichment
Concept Develop-
ment
Expert interviews
Delphi Study
Trend reports
Scenario Planning
Trend Workshops
Customer Innovation Workshops
Coolhunting
How to monitor and evaluate external developments and trends?
Opportunity analysis
FEI
Trend Analysis
Opportunity Analysis
Idea Generation
& Enrichment
Concept Develop-
ment
How to identify business or technology gaps between current situation and envisioned future?
Sales Analysis
Technology Forecasting & Road Mapping
Outcome-Driven Innovation
Competitor Intelligence
Disciplined bootlegging
Netnography
“Gut feeling”
Market Pull versus Technology Push
Technology Push
Market Pull
Basic Science
Design & Engineering Manufacturing Marketing Sales
Market Need
Develop-ment Manufacturing Sales
What are the underlying assumptions and the drivers of innovation?
Sources
• Baker, J. P. (2000). The incubator and the medical discovery of the premature infant. Journal of Perinatology, 20(5), pp. 321-328.
• Cooper, R. G. (2008). The Stage-Gate Idea-to-Launch Process. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 25(3), pp. 213-232.
• Crawford, C. M., & Di Benedetto, C. A. (2011). New products management. McGraw-Hill Education.
• Johnson, M. W. (2010). Seizing the white space: business model innovation for growth and renewal. Harvard Business Press.
• Magrath, A. J. (1998). Envisioning Greenfield Markets. Across the Board, 35, pp. 26-30.• Wheelwright, S. C., & Clark, K. B. (1992). Revolutionizing product development: quantum leaps in
speed, efficiency, and quality. Simon and Schuster.• Further readings: Koen (2012); Koen & Stevens (2012); Koen et al. (2002).
Managing the Innovation Process
Trend Analysis and Opportunity Recognition
Managing the Innovation Process – The Big Picture
Source: Lercher 2016, 2017
Trend Analysis & Opportunity Recognition in The Big Picture
Source: Lercher 2016, 2017
Opportunity recognition and trend analysis
Activities that Feed Strategic Planning for New Products
Ongoing corporate planning
Special opportunity
analysis
Ongoing marketing planning
How does a firm know that it has to start a new product development process?
Opportunity: A business or technology gap (that a company or
individual realizes) between the current situation and an envisioned
future in order to capture competitive advantage, respond to a threat, or
solve a problem.
Opportunity Identification: Greenfield Markets
What are means to develop a firm into greenfield markets?
Currently, “Business Model Innovation” or “Blue Ocean Strategy” are means to develop a firm into greenfield markets.
Find another location or venue
Leverage your firm’s strengths in a new activity
Move into a “new to you” industry
Identify a fast-growing need, and adapt your products to that
need
Nat
ure
of th
e O
ppor
tuni
ty
Nature of the Customer
Good fit w/ current organization
Poor fit w/ current organization
New customers or existing customers served in fundamentally different ways
Existing customers served in traditional ways
White Space(Business Model / Radical /
Disruptive Innovation)
AdjacencyCore Business
Based on M.W. Johnson: Seizing the white space, 2010
(Disruptive) Process Innovation
(Poor Dogs)
Opportunity Identification: Different Degrees of Change & Uncertainty
Opportunity recognition and trend analysis
Activities that Feed Strategic Planning for New Products
Ongoing corporate planning
Special opportunity
analysis
Ongoing marketing planning
How does a firm know that it has to start a new product development process?
Sources of Opportunities
Opportunity recognition
An underutilized
resource
A new resource
An external mandate
An internal mandate
Reaction on an
identified trend
Opportunity recognition and trend analysis
Activities that Feed Strategic Planning for New Products
Ongoing corporate planning
Special opportunity
analysis
Ongoing marketing planning
How does a firm know that it has to start a new product development process?
Sources of Opportunities
Opportunity recognition
An underutilized
resource
A new resource
An external mandate
An internal mandate
Reaction on an
identified trend
Opportunity recognition and trend analysis
How does a firm know that it has to start a new product development process?
Sources of Opportunities
Opportunity recognition
An underutilized
resource
A new resource
An external mandate
An internal mandate
Reaction on an
identified trend
VISION: Desired future
MISSION: a means to approach the vision
TRENDS: Foreseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation; expert knowledge; broadly applicable
FORECASTS / PROGNOSIS: Quantifies time and degree of use of trends
SCENARIOS: Comprehensive summary of multiple trends and their mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures