merrill lynch 2008 global metals & mining conference ... · 2016. 2017. selective acquisition...

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Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference Andrew Michelmore Chief Executive Officer

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Page 1: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference

Andrew MichelmoreChief Executive Officer

Page 2: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Important NoticeThis presentation is not and does not constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe for, or purchase any security and neither this presentation nor anything contained in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. Reliance should not be placed on the information or opinions contained in this presentation. This presentation does not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for shares in Zinifex should only be made after seeking appropriate financial advice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information, opinions and conclusions contained in this presentation. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Zinifex Limited and its affiliates and related bodies corporate, and their respective officers, directors, employees and agents disclaim any liability (including, without limitation any liability arising from fault or negligence) for any loss arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with it. The forecasts and other forward-looking statements set out in this presentation are based on a number of estimates, assumptions and pro forma adjustments that are subject to business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, with respect to future business decisions, which are subject to change and in many cases outside the control of Zinifex. The forecasts contained in this presentation may vary from actual financial results, and these variations may be material and, accordingly, neither the Company nor its Directors can give any assurance that the forecast performance in the forecasts or any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation will be achieved. All figures are expressed in Australian dollars unless stated otherwise.

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Page 3: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Strategy

Page 4: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Zinifex strategy transforms companyCompleted Nyrstar smelter demerger - $1.8 billion cash released to potentially grow mining business

Smelters divested

Nickel added to portfolio

Rosebery upgrade

Oxiana merger

Century adding life

Allegiance acquisition nears completion. Avebury mine being commissioned with first production due shortly

Creates a major diversified mining company ready to benefit from exceptional demand for metals

Exploration is expanding near mine deposits that may extend mine life at Century

Excellent drilling results will likely see a material Rosebery resource upgrade. An expansion study is underway

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Dugald advances

Dugald River feasibility study completion in Dec 2008 – copper potential being modelled

Page 5: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

• Delivers a long and balanced pipeline of development opportunities

• Increased capability to accelerate value delivery from existing asset portfolio

• Enhanced capacity to pursue both an organic and an acquisitive growth strategy

GrowthGrowth

• Strong financial position, cash flow and earnings capability• Highly efficient current operations, and attractive development

and exploration portfolios• Enhanced investor attractiveness resulting from increased

scale, liquidity and diversification

StrengthStrength

• Increased commodity and geographic spread of assets• Improved earnings diversification• Skill base applied to a more diverse set of opportunities

DiversityDiversity

Zinifex/Oxiana merger rationale

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Page 6: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Merger terms • 3.1931 Oxiana shares for every Zinifex share

Structure • Merger unanimously recommended by both Boards• Implemented via Zinifex Scheme of Arrangement• Approximately 3,101 million shares outstanding upon completion• Mutual break fee of $55 million

Ownership • Oxiana 50% / Zinifex 50%

Company name and HQ

• New name for the combined entity to be determined• Corporate headquarters in Melbourne

Conditions • Zinifex shareholder vote (75% of shares voted and 50% of shareholders voting)

• Other customary conditions and Court approval

Indicative timetable

• Scheme Booklet dispatched 16May 2008• Zinifex shareholder vote 16June 2008

Merger summary

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Page 7: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Laos55%

Australia45%

Laos22%

Australia78%

Zinc63%

Lead6%

Gold5%

Silver4%

Copper23%

Zinc87%

Lead7%

Gold1%

Silver4%

Copper1%Zinc

30%

Lead4%

Gold10%Silver

4%

Copper53%

Australia100%

20071 gross revenue by metal2

20071 gross revenue by geography

Broader operational and geographic footprint provides stability

ZinifexOxiana Combined

+

+

=

=Note:1. Pro forma for the year ended 31 December 20072. Zinifex revenue split based on production for the year ended 31 December 2007 multiplied by average London

Metal Exchange and Comex metals prices for the equivalent period

Prominent Hill development

Indonesia and Canada

A diversified company

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Page 8: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Financial strength to support growth strategy

Source: Company financial reportsNote:1. For the year ended 31 December 2007. Based on continuing operations for Zinifex

• Combined pro forma EBITDA of $1,666 million for 2007¹

• Combined pro forma NPAT of $918 million for 2007¹

• Combined cash on hand of $2,474 million as at 31 December 2007

• Combined interest-bearing debt of $539 million as at 31 December 2007

• Combined net cash balance of $1,935 million as at 31 December 2007

Strong cash flows and balance sheet

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Page 9: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

The combined company is well positioned to deliver superior growth

Prominent HillUG expansion Stage 2

Oxiana project

Zinifex project

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Prominent HillCopper / gold project

High LakeZinc / copper

Dugald RiverZinc / lead / silver

Izok LakeZinc / copper

MartabeGold / silverproject

Prominent HillUG expansion Stage 1

Golden GroveCopper sulphide pit

Golden GroveOxide pit

Sepon GoldPrimary gold project

Sepon CopperCopper expansion

2016 2017

Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth

RoseberyUpgrade

Strong and complimentary development pipeline

AveburyNickel

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Page 10: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

• Zinifex owns more than 96%• Compulsory acquisition to achieve 100%• Zinifex has Board and Management control

StatusStatus

• We like nickel – favourable market attributes• Attractive and low risk entry into nickel sulphides• Adds near term cash flow with scope for expansion

Strategic fit

Strategic fit

• Major strategic relationship with Jinchuan Group Ltd• New mining team with skills & expertise in short supply• Intellectual property in nickel metallurgy

New capabilityNew capability

• Strong commitment to grow base metal mining on west coastTasmaniaTasmania

Allegiance acquisition

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Page 11: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Allegiance: in Zinifex’s backyard• Advantaged position on west coast of Tasmania

with zinc and nickel

Tasmania

Hobart

Avebury Project

Rosebery

Avebury Project

Queenstown

Burnie

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Page 12: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

• Construction of the processing plant is nearly complete• Pre-production testing to commence May• Wet commissioning of concentrator throughout June• Production and ramp up to full capacity across Sept 2008 Quarter

Avebury near commissioning

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Page 13: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Expected EBIT of A$80-90 million

• Full year at design capacity (2009)

• 8,500 t/a – nickel in concentrate

• US$28,000/t LME nickel

• A$=US$0.95

• Nickel recovery 80% +/- 2½%

• Operating cash costs US$2.20/lb

• 22% nickel in concentrate

Material and high margin

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Page 14: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Rosebery mineProject Horizon • drilling has significantly

extended known mineralised zones

P Lens

K Lens

V Lens

NED

19 Level

PW

Decline

V LENSY Lens

SLEDSLED

PK LensW Lens

B North

NU

C L

eg 2

0 250 500

Mined - out or inaccessible (some remnants and pillars)

LEGENDOre Reserve Stopes to be Mined

Mineralisation Outline

Known Subeconomic Mineralisation

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P Lens

K Lens

V Lens

NED

NU

C L

eg 2 19 Level

0 250 500

PK Lens

W Lens

P

W Decline

V LENSY Lens

X Lens

SLED

March 2007

December 2007

Page 15: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Rosbery Horizons expand again

• 2007 drilling has extended mineralisation in multiple zones

• Further material resource upgrades are expected

• Goal is a mine life of 2030+ (>20 years)

• As a consequence an optimisation study is underway to: - Examine options for a new tailings dam - Optimise mine haulage - Renew ore processing facility - Significant cost savings would be realised

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Page 16: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Century – adding mine life

• Multiple high grade near mine vein style deposits like Silver King have the potential to add 6-12 months each to Century’s mine life

• Exploration for Century style ore bodies is also underway on more than 4000 km216

Page 17: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Dugald – the worlds best undeveloped zinc deposit• Dugald River is one of

the worlds largest undeveloped Zn-Pb-Ag deposits

• Wholly owned by Zinifex

• Close to infrastructure

• Conventional mining & processing

• High in-situ value

• Excellent potential for future discoveries

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Page 18: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Dugald overview

• 2 Mtpa underground mine over 16+ years

• Initial mineable inventory (non JORC Compliant) 31Mt @ 11.8% Zn, 2.1%Pb, 44g/t Ag.

• Average annual output: ~200kt Zn, ~30kt Pb, 1.5Moz Ag in concentrates

• Marketing indicates strong demand for Dugald conencetrates

• Competitive capital & operating costs

• High potential for copper orebodies

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Page 19: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Infrastructure• Grid power from Mica Creek (gas), transmission line from

Chumvale 55km to SE

• Water from Lake Julius pipeline ~7km north of project site

• Sealed 2 lane modern road access from Cloncurry

• FiFo using Cloncurry Airport & accommodation camp on site

• Concentrates truck to Cloncurry/Yurbi and railed to Townsville for export.

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Page 20: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Market Outlook

Page 21: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Zinc surplus forecasts exaggerated?

• Commentators forecast large zinc surpluses (>1mt for 2008/9) when zinc prices were high (>$4,000/mt)

• Zinc prices have fallen and so too have expectations of large surpluses• Delays, interruptions and falling profitability at high cost mines is reducing

projected supply while demand remains reasonable• LME zinc stocks remain low and support a modest 2008 surplus forecast• Further disruption to supply could see zinc prices rebound• 2008 treatment charges have increased reflecting increased concentrate supply

but spot TCs have now stabilised21

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

CRU ILZSG Macquarie

2008 Forecast Zinc Market Surplus‘000 tonnes

Page 22: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Lead prices ease but are well above average

Source: CRU August 2007

• Lead prices have eased but remain exceptionally strong on low global stocks

• Lead prices remain susceptible to further supply shocks

• 2008 lead treatment charges have risen in response to Chinese efforts to curb lead exports

LME Lead Stocks and Prices (Jan 03 - Current)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Tonnes US$/Tonne

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Page 23: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Business Outlook

Page 24: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Century

• Excellent zinc and lead production, 8% and 12% ahead of last year respectively enabling higher sales

• Accelerated waste rock pre-stripping on track and will rapidly taper from FY10

• Project PERcent

– New ball mill is commissioned ramping up to full capacity

– Zinc recoveries ahead of target

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Page 25: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Rosebery

• Zinc and lead production moderately lower than last year, 5% and 2% respectively

• Higher ore throughput unable to fully offset lower grades

• Production for June half expected to be moderately better than 1H08

• $30m ventilation shaft approved to enable mining of deeper and hotter zones

• Drilling at Jupiter, 5km south of Rosebery has potentially identified a new mineralised area with Rosebery style mineralisation close to surface

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Page 26: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

FY08 Outlook

• Substantially lower average zinc prices

• Higher zinc and lead treatment charges in 2H08

• Cost pressures from energy, labour and other commodities

• Plus increased exploration activity and merger costs

• Will more than offset higher zinc and lead production and sales

• Resulting in lower expected earnings in the second half of FY08

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Page 27: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Financial Results

Page 28: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Record half year net profit

• Assisted by profits on sale of: - smelters to Nyrstar - $961 million - investments - $56 million

(A$m)

Revenue from continuing operations

EBITDA*

EBIT*

Profit after tax

Earnings per share ($)

EBIT Margin %*

* Excludes discontinued operations

HY08

788.6

469.9

342.3

1,309.7

2.69

43

HY07

1,079.3

780.9

680.5

751.2

1.54

63

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Page 29: Merrill Lynch 2008 Global Metals & Mining Conference ... · 2016. 2017. Selective acquisition strategy to accelerate growth. ... future discoveries. 17. Dugald overview • 2 Mtpa

Zinifex Continuing OperationsEBIT Variance Analysis6 Months to 31 December 2007

0

250

500

750

1,000

680.5 116.7 (97.0) (346.7) (47.5) (27.2) (25.1) 12.8 75.8 342.3

HY07EBIT

Volume ExchangeRate

Price Costs Dep'nand

Amort.

Explore & Dev

Royalties Sale ofInvestments

HY08EBIT

A$m

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