mega trends and emerging mobility business models in the fleet market
TRANSCRIPT
“Mega Trends and Emerging Mobility Business Models in the Fleet Market”
Fleet Europe 2011, Madrid
Agenda
1) Mega-Trends - Urbanisation Trends and Implications
2) From Green to ‘Smart’ – Connected City
3) Global Urban Mobility Trends and Business Models
4) Mobility Impact on Fleet Market
5) Smart Mobility Management
Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITYCity With A Minimum
Population Of 10 Million
EXAMPLE: Greater London
MEGA REGIONSCities Combining With
Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over 15 Million)
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming
“Jo-Toria”)
MEGA CORRIDORSThe Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega
Regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in
China (Population 120 Million)
1950s Urbanisation
Multi Utilization Concept
Commercial Buildings Condominiums Houses
2000 Suburb-anisation
Residential
Core City/
Downtown
Downtown
Suburbs
Core City/
Downtown
Ring roads and underground rails connecting all towns
with the core city
Core City/
Downtown
2020s: Megacity
Suburbs
Suburbs
Daughter cities
Evolution of Megacities: Structure and Key Trends, (World), 1950Evolution of Megacities: Structure and Key Trends, (World), 1950 to 2025to 2025
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Megacity - Structure and Key Trends Urbanization leading to rapid expansion of city borders into neighboring suburbs resulting in the formation of Megacities
2.2
65
85.5
140
160
205
20
23
60
High Speed
Inter-City Rail
Light Rail/Metro
Car
Bus
Air
Vessel
Frieght Rail
Truck
Cost to the Environment: Road Transport has the Highest CO2 of all Transport Modes – Be it Freight or Passenger Movement
CO2 Emission by Transport Mode
Source: Alstom Transport, EcoTransIT, carbonneutralcalculator
g/tkm
g/tkm
g/pkm
g/pkm
g/tkm
g/pkm
g/pkm
g/pkm – grams per passenger kilometer
g/tkm- grams per ton kinometer
Transportation14%
Electricity & Heat25%
Industry15%
Waste3%
Others8%
Other Fuel Combustion
9%
Land Use Change
12%
Agriculture14%
Global Co2 Emissions By Industry Sectors
Road71%
Air12%
Ship & Others
10%
Rail7%
Sourc
e:
Fro
st &
Sulli
van, W
orld R
esourc
es I
nstitu
te
g/km
g/pkm
Fre
igh
tP
asse
ng
er
Top 10 Megacities – Regional Transportation PoliciesCongestion, low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emerging economies will have a major impact on car mobility
Delhi Mumbai Beijing Shanghai Moscow Seoul New York London Tokyo
Bus Rapid Transit Lanes
2011 2011
Metro/Subway 2011
Congestion Charging
Planned Planned 2012 2012 Future Planned Future
Parking Cuts
Road use Charging/Ban
Yes1 Week Day Ban
1 week Day Ban
1 Week Day Ban*
Future
EV/Hybrid Incentives
Bicycle Lanes
Emission Standard
Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4Euro 3
Euro 4 by 2012
Euro 4
CAFÉ27.5mpg. 34.1 mpg by 2016
Euro 4 Euro 5 by
2011
25% reduction by 2015
Not
planned
Existing currently * Voluntary no road usage
incentive
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Trend in Developed World Shows a Flat/Slight Decline
Population (Million)
Per capita 2025 (USD)
Cars per 1000 -2009
Cars per 1000 – 2025
Tokyo 38.5 46,494 353 340
New York 25.9 67,591 230 220
London 14.4 57,746 400 340
Mexico City 21.0 33,795 209 270
Shanghai 21.0 32,952 32 122
São Paulo 21.5 28,001 150 335
Buenos Aires 13.8 43,581 190 350
Mumbai 26.4 21,224 24 72
Beijing 20.0 25,000 35 155
Delhi 22.5 21,335 117 250
Moscow 14.5 42,759 307 475
Urbanisation and Mega Trends that will Shape Tomorrow’s Mobility and Transportation Needs
Smart City (40 smart
cities with state of the hard mobility & connectivity)
Integrated Mobility (smooth
inter-modality –metro, bus, vehicle
sharing, etc.)
Mega Cities & Mega Regions (Over 50 cities
by 2025 <10 millions
inhabitants)
Vehicle Ownership/Sharing Trends (Over 5
million members of carsharing in
Europe by 2016)
Technology Developments
(Integration - mobile payment, cloud
computing, security)
New Economic Developments (BRIC
and Next BRIC Infrastructure
developments)
Standardisation & Harmonisation (inter-
operability across systems)
Cities built from scratch
Existing eco cities
Existing eco megacities
Treasure Island
Boulder
Arcosanti
Coyote SpringsDestiny
Babcock Ranch
Vancouver
Toronto
San Francisco
PortlandSeattle
Curitiba
Montreal
Bogota
St Davids
Clonburris
Göteborg
Hammarby Sjöstad
London
Barcelona
Reykjavik Oslo
Freiburg
Stockholm
Paris
Copenhagen
Kochi
GIFT
Cape Town
Pune
Dongtan
Tianjin
Changsha
KhajurahoMeixi Lake
Waitakere, N.Z.
Singapore City
Songdo
Moreland, Australia
Amsterdam
Masdar
Evolution of Megacities: Key Smart Cities (Global), 2009 Evolution of Megacities: Key Smart Cities (Global), 2009 -- 20252025
Legend
Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable” Cities
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Case Study – Amsterdam Smart City: A creative economy working towards deploying smarter technologies to achieve a 40% reduction of CO2 emissions from 1990 levels
Bi-cycle Path E - Mobility
Restricted
Parking
Cheaper
Parking
30Speed
Limits
Parking
Cuts
***** Solar powered
display
Central
collection
Depot outside
city
Business/retail
outlets inside
city
Deliver goods via Electriccommercial vehicles
Garbage
Collection On &
off the trip
City
Suburbs
Intercity
TR
AV
EL
DIS
TA
NC
E
TRAVEL DISTANCEDestination
PublicTransportation
Private Cars
Carsharing
Micro-mobility
Intercity Bus
Intercity Train Transport
Operators
Payment Gateway
Telecom Operators
Online Mobility Service Providers:
Technology Solutions Provider
Mobility Integrator
Rail Bus
Car Sharing
Bikes
Long Distance
Short Distance
Solution Developers
App Developers
Multimodality paving way to Mobility Integrators Multimodality paving way to Mobility Integrators -- OneOne--Stop Shop Mobility Solutions ProviderStop Shop Mobility Solutions Provider
Mobility Integrators (MI) to offer various types of mobility solutions to complement commuters inter-modality and multi-modality travel split.
Future Mobility Concepts: The Concept of a Dynamic Transport Solution Integrating
Different Modes Under a Single Entity to Make Personal Transportation Easy and Simple
Mode of Transport – Public TransportPublic bus is the most used mode of transport, but Underground ridership has been increasing
• Greater London has one of the world's most extensive and complex public transport systems with:
• Over 700 bus routes.• 21,500 licensed taxis.• Of the 28 million journeys undertaken in
the city each day, 41% are by public transport.
• Nearly all visitors to London will use public transport at some point during their stay.
• Every weekday over 6,800 scheduled buses carry around 6 millions passengers.
Mode of Transport – Private Transport42% of households in Greater London did not own car in 2008/09. Increased from 39% in 1995/07
(km/h)
As a Result of Urbanisation in Future, There Will be Shift from Cities Designed around Cars to Cars Designed around [Mega] Cities: OEMs to Develop New Vehicles and Platforms
• Megacity Vehicle – be launched in 2013.
• Electro-mobility – ZEV (Li-ion battery with 35 kWh capacity )
• Electric drive - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zip drive.
• Lighter drive –CFRP passenger cell, Aluminum chassis.
• City Car in EU and NA
• Compact Vehicle : 3099mm x 1,495mm
• Low emissions; sub 1 litre engine (624cc), EV in future.
• Turning radius: 4m.
• Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb)
• ‘City Cars’ – In sync with the city � Pixo, Note and Cube
• Compact Vehicle: less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm
• Low emissions: 1-litre engine, EV in future
• Tight turning circle of 4.5m
• Power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city traffic
• Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear seats,
customizable setting
Logos are only for descriptive purpose. Source: Frost & Sullivan
NISSAN
BMW
TATA
Though newer cars are becoming city-centric,
consumers are not relieved off hassles of purchase, maintenance, parking,
congestion, insurance and inspection
Mega Cities need not just a car, but a
flexible, hassle-free mobility solution that is
eco-friendly.
Urbanization Impact on Vehicle Technology PlanningOpportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers’ Unmet Needs
Ergonomically designed comfortable seats for long commuting hours
Turning radius <4.3m to drive in congested streets
Start Stop System for frequent stop in traffic
Facebook on wheels, Internet in cars
3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2V and V2X communication
Limited boot space and more head and leg room
CO2 less than 80 gm/km vehicles
Lightweight construction
Panoramic roofs
Navigation systems with route guidance and traffic information
Customised and personalised comfort functions
Smart vehicle access
Low speed collision avoidance for enhanced safety and pedestrian protection
Simple and easy to use HMI
Vehicle length of less than 3500mm
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Autonomous parking assist
Voice recognition technology
Mega City Cars Mega City Cars
Citroen Multicity: Mobility integration service from Citroen Automotive which can boost its brand value across global consumer
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Expected to be launched in key EU cities depending on the response in France
Current Points of Sale
Launched March 2011
Website Visitors Till July : 600,000
Purchases till July : 6,000
Services Offered & Value
PropositionTravel
Services
Vacation plan
Weekend Services
Contract Services
Call Car Application
Online Access for
All Application
Vehicle
Accessories
Citroen Mobility Solution : Multicity 2010Citroen Mobility Solution : Multicity 2010
A car rent starts from €22 per day.
Newly launched battery powered C-Zero is available
at €35 for half a day to €140 for a weekend.
Pricing
Multicity•A webportal to help people plan travel by integrating
various modes of transportaion.
•Custom-tailored journey depending on budget and
schedule of traveller.
Features•Mobility for everyone & all purpose (business & Private).
•Provide wide range of mobility products and services
tailored to urban need.
Case Study - Mu by Peugeot (Mobility Integration by OEM) Integrated Mobility On-demand Solutions Under One Roof
Evolution of Megacities: Case Study Evolution of Megacities: Case Study –– Mu by Peugeot (Global), 2009Mu by Peugeot (Global), 2009
by
Peugeot
WeekendServices
TravelServices
DrivingBehaviourand Rewards
PersonalTransportSolutions
VehicleAccessories
Service Units
Hiring Units
Create an account to use this scheme
Pay subscription charges to get charging units
Working Concept
Hire services or productsbased on balance in charging units
Earn mobility (reward)points that can be used for select services
Source: Frost & Sullivan
� Partnering with travel agencies,
driving schools amongst others.
� Booking services on train,
airplane travel and hotels.
� Discounts, prizes and member
advantages.
Decrease spending by using the same infrastructure and staff
Generate income from the stock of vehicles sitting at dealerships
� Micro-mobility solutions such
as bicycles and scooters.
� Rental cars and vans.
� Vehicle accessories such as
roof-boxes, cycle racks and
child seats.
Brest
Rennes
Nantes
Lyon
Paris
Expected to be expanded in key EU cities in 2010-2011
Bristol
London
Current Points of Sale
> 80,000
15,000 – 80,000
<15,000
Market for Car-Sharing: Key Car Sharing Companies and Membership by Country (Europe), 2009
Car Sharing : 5.5m Members & c.100,000 Fleet Vehicles in EU by 2016 with Germany, UK and Switzerland the 3 biggest markets in Europe
Germany 35.7%
UK 22.0%
Switzerland 19.8%
Netherlands 5.6%
462,500 members in 2009
Sweden 3.4%Italy 3.2%
Austria 3%France 2.4%
Others 4.9%
Car Sharing Members in 2009
13,287
77,254
Car Sharing Vehicle Parc
2009 2016
Fleet Managers (Europe): Total Market For Electric Vehicle Potential (Demand Side Analysis)
Ele
ctr
ic V
ehic
le S
ale
s (
Thousands)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Total Potential Fleet Vehicles Suitable for EV, 2010 - 2015Scenario 1 - €200 Per Month
Range: 200 Km
Recharge: 2 Hours
Scenario 2 - €300 Per Month
Range: 150 Km
Recharge: 4 Hours
Scenario 3 - €400 Per Month
Range: 100 Km
Recharge: 6 Hours
(Segment Small & Basic PV and CDV, Countries UK, France and Germany)
Scenario 2: Fleet Vehicles Suitable for EV Split by Sector, 2015
Scenario 3: Fleet Vehicles Suitable for EV Split by Sector, 2015
Fleet Operators’ Willingness to Purchase EVs
No 66%
Yes 34%
Utility and Telecom
Building and Maintenance
Business Delivery Services Government
Postal and Courier
Taxi and Private Hire
Survey of 73 Fleet Managers : When purchasing your current fleet did you consider an Electric Vehicle?
Based on interview of 73 fleet manager in Europe having passenger vehicle in their fleet
Source : Frost & Sullivan study on “Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Consumer
Study-Fleet Managers and Drivers”
Impact of Mobility and Mega Trends on European Fleet Market: Fleet market will adopt the changes in the domain of urban mobility through application
of multimodal transport solution
Impact on Leasing Industry
Urbanisation
Mega Cities
E mobility
New age vehicle
technology
Multi modal transportation
• City expansion with 60% world population expected to live in cities by 2025.
• Three main concepts : megacities, mega regionsand mega corridors.
• Concept to shift from “GREEN” to “SMART”. • Energy efficiency and zero emissions as the basic
premise of SMART initiatives.
E-Mobility is encouraging new investment with new business models offering innovative and customized set of infrastructure and technology solutions
Next Generation Business models will redefine future business propositions and influence future technology and product development .
Trends Implication
Share and multimodal transportation e.g. car-sharing
& new membership models.
Small and Micro cars are slowly gaining momentum
in fleet market.
Application of Electric Vehicle in fleet
to improve total cost of vehicle ownership.
Engine Downsizing and Telematics application are
technology trends
Integrating public and private mode of travel e.g.
bus & rail access with App store application.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Integration of public and private transportation system in order to create an optimized solution for the commuters in Europe.
Fleet Impact on Mobility – Summary
New vehicles will have new “Urban”
technologies
Regulation pressures on CO2 will continue for the foreseeable
future
Impact on Personal Mobility
New integrated urban mobility
models will emerge including OEM based
car sharing
Fleet Market to grow <4% CAGR to 2020 but Fleet Mix will Radically
Change
Urbanization - More than 60% of the
population will live in cities by 2025
Multimodal Mobility
E - Mobility
Small and Micro Mobility
Shared Mobility (Car Sharing/Pooling)
Last Mile Connectivity
New Technology in Cars (e.g. Internet Radio)
IT Mobility Platforms
The Future of Mobility is for ‘Green’, ‘Integrated’ and ‘Interoperable’ Transport Infrastructure - SMART
Vehicle Sharing
Source: ETSI Congestion Charging
Connectivity
Commercial Vehicle Telematics
V2V & V2X
Electric Vehicles
Real-Time Information Services
Smart Ticketing/AFC:
Vehicle Management Systems
Source: ETSI
Apps Store
Services
IT Infrastructure
Thank You
Contact Details
Frost & Sullivan4, Grosvenor GardensLondon SW1W 0DHUnited Kingdom
www.frost.com
Edward Gibbs
Growth Consulting Director EMEA,
Automotive & Transportation
Direct: +44 (0) 1865 3986 29
Email : [email protected]