Future of Mobility: from Mega Trends to the Driverless Car

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  1. 1. The Future of MobilityFrom Mega Trends to the Driverless CarbyDorman Followwill Partner
  2. 2. Mega Trends Impacting Mobility
  3. 3. Global Mega Trends Impacting Mobility in the FutureNew MicroUrbanization E-Mobility Mega and Smart CitiesMobility productsCarSustainable Public Integrated Mobility New Business ModelsSharing/CarTransportation andSolutions(Value for Many)Pooling BRT Geo-Socialization Connected andPower to the Middle Class High Speed Rail And Social MediaWireless Planet and Gen Y
  4. 4. Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities,Mega Regions and Mega CorridorsMEGA CITY City With A Minimum MEGA REGIONSMEGA CORRIDORSPopulation Of 8 Million Cities Combining WithThe Corridors Connecting and GDP of $250Suburbs To Form Regions. Two Major Cities or MegaMillion in 2025 (13 (Population over 15 Million) RegionsMega Cities in 2011 and 25 Mega Cities inEXAMPLE: Johannesburg EXAMPLE: Hong Kong- 2025) and Pretoria (formingShenzhen-Guangzhou inJo-Toria)China (Population 120 EXAMPLE: Greater Million) London
  5. 5. Top 20 Mega Cities Car Ownership Trend in DevelopedWorld Shows a Flat/Slight DeclinePopulation Per capita Cars per 1000 - Cars per 1000 (Million) 2025 (USD)2009 2025 Tokyo 38.5 46,494 353340 New York25.9 67,591 230220 London14.4 57,746 400340 Mexico City 21.0 33,795 209270 Shanghai21.0 32,95232122 So Paulo 21.5 28,001 150335 Buenos Aires13.8 43,581 190350 Mumbai26.4 21,22424 72 Beijing 20.0 25,00035155 Delhi 22.5 21,335 117250 Moscow14.5 42,759 307475 Guangzhou 11.8 36,33243173 Seoul 9.743,860 239320
  6. 6. Top 20 Mega Cities Regional Transportation PoliciesCongestion, low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emerging economieswill have a major impact on car mobilityDelhiMumbai BeijingShanghai MoscowSeoulNew YorkLondonTokyoBus Rapid 20112011Transit LanesMetro/Subway2011CongestionPlanned Planned20122012 FuturePlanned FutureChargingParking CutsRoad use1 Week Day 1 week Day 1 Week Day YesFutureCharging/Ban BanBanBan*EV/HybridIncentivesBicycle Lanes CAF 25%EmissionEuro 3 Euro27.5mpg. Euro 4 EuroEuro 4Euro 4Euro 4Euro 4Euro 4reductionStandard 4 by 2012 34.1 mpg5 by 2011 by 2015by 2016 Not planned Existing currently* Voluntary no road usage incentive Source: Frost & Sullivan
  7. 7. Mobility Integrators (MI) New Players Entering the MarketMI to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters inter-modality and multi-modality travel split Telecom OperatorsParking OperatorsPublicTransport Current EVBus RailOEMs TaxiShared MobilityBike/Car PoolingOnline Mobility Booking Agency Long Distance Mobility MobilityShort Distance IntegratorUrban MobilityPayment Tech Engine SolutionsProviderMOBILE 2.0 LBS & Car Rental & TelematicsNew Opportunity FleetCompany EVER EXPANDING VALUE CHAIN
  8. 8. The Future of Urban Mobility is for Green, Integrated andInteroperable Transport Infrastructure - SMART ConnectivityReal-TimeInformationVehicleServices ManagementSystems Smart Ticketing/AFC:V2V & V2XApps Store ServicesVehicle SharingIT Infrastructure Electric VehiclesCommercial VehicleTelematicsSource: ETSICongestionSource: ETSI Charging
  9. 9. Car of the Future - The Driverless Car
  10. 10. Urbanisation Drives a New Reality: From Cities Designed around Cars to CarsDesigned around Mega Cities: OEMs to Develop New Vehicles and PlatformsCitiesNISSAN City Cars In sync with the city Pixo, Note and Cube Compact Vehicle: less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm Though newer cars are Low emissions: 1-litre engine, EV in futurebecoming city-centric, Tight turning circle of 4.5m consumers are not relieved off Power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city traffichassles of purchase, Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear maintenance, parking,seats, customizable settingcongestion, insurance and inspection BMW Megacity Vehicle be launched in 2013. Electro-mobility ZEV (Li-ion battery with 35 kWh capacity ) Electric drive - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zipdrive. Lighter drive CFRP passenger cell, Aluminum chassis. Mega Cities need not just a car, but a flexible, hassle-free mobilityTATA City Car in EU and NAsolution that is eco- Compact Vehicle : 3099mm x 1,495mm friendly. Low emissions; sub 1 litre engine (624cc), EV in future. Turning radius: 4m. Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb)
  11. 11. Urbanization Impact on Vehicle Technology PlanningOpportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers Unmet NeedsVehicle length of CO2 less than 80 gm/ less than 3500mm km vehicles Mega City CarsLimited boot space Voice recognitionand more head and technology leg room Start Stop System forPanoramic roofs frequent stop in trafficLightweight Customised and construction personalised comfort functionsLow speed collisionavoidance for enhancedAutonomous parking assist safety and pedestrianprotectionSimple and easy to use HMI3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2Vand V2X communication Ergonomically designed comfortable seats for long commuting hours Facebook on wheels,Internet in cars Turning radius


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