New Mega Trends Implications to Future of Mobility

Sarwant SinghPartner and Practice Director Automotive & Transportation

Mega Trends Impacting MobilityMicro Mobility Market OverviewTraditional Car Sharing in Europe (G3) – An UpdateOpportunities in Peer to Peer CarsharingFuture of Integrated MobilityVerdict

Presentation Agenda

2

Mega Trends Impacting Mobility

Car Sharing/Car Pooling

Geo-SocializationAnd Social Media

New Micro Mobility Products

Integrated Mobility Solutions

E-Mobility

Connected and Wireless Planet

Sustainable Public Transportation and BRT

High Speed Rail

Urbanization Smart and Sustainable Cities

New Business Models (Value for Many)

Power to the Middle Class and Gen YPhoto Credits: Dreamstime and Commons

3

Mega CitiesMega RegionsMega SlumsMega Corridor

4

There Will be 34 Mega Cities Globally By 2025 - 76% of Mega Cities to be From Developing World

Note: Mega City is defined as a city with population of over 8 million and GDP of $250 billion or moreSource: : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision , Frost & Sullivan, 2012

Population in 2025 > 27 Million18-27 Million8-18 Million

BeijingChongqing

WuhanTianjinChengduHarbin

TokyoOsaka-KobeDelhiMumbaiMexico City

New York City

São Paulo

KolkataLos Angeles

Buenos Aires

IstanbulCairo

Rio de JaneiroJakarta

MoscowParis

LondonChicago SeoulTehranMadrid

Hong KongShenzhen

GuangzhouFoshan

ShanghaiNanjing Hangzhou

5

Over 26 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2025 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America

Selected Smart Cities in 2025

TorontoSan Francisco

Vancouver

New YorkBerlinSeattle ChicagoLos Angeles

ViennaOslo

SeoulTianjinWuhan

Helsinki

Sydney

Calgary Amsterdam Copenhagen Beijing Tokyo

SingaporeShenzhen

Source: Siemens Green City Index, Forbes Smart City List, Innovation City Index, Specific Smart Project Websites for Each City, Frost & Sullivan, 2012

Stockholm

BarcelonaParisLondon

6

Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the FutureCities like Seoul account for 50% of the country’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%.What are the Micro Implications?High Economic PowerHub and Spoke Business ModelTransit oriented developmentNew Mobility SolutionsCity as a Customer

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Future Innovation in Mobility to Focus on The “Wild” Side

KnownSolutions

Met Needs Unmet Needs

UnknownSolutionsTechnology InnovationTraffic Prediction systemParking Search assistanceCashless Payment

ImprovementMicro carsElectric CarsElectric BikesApplication InnovationCar SharingCar PoolingBike Sharing

Wild InnovationMobility IntegrationNew Mobility ProductsMotorized MoverTwo seated Electric Car

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Micro Mobility Solutions Market To Explode in FutureOpen-top models are largely there to target conventional bicycle, engine-driven scooter and motorcycle users; while the closed-tops are targeted at conventional car usersOne-wheeled One-seating Two-wheeledOne-standingBike-type

Two-wheeledOne-standingSegway-typeTwo-wheeledOne-seatingBike-type

Two-wheeled Two-seatingSegway-typeThree-wheeledOne-standingScooter-type

One-wheeledOne-seatingMotorcycle-type

Four-wheeledOne-seatingWheelchair-type

Three-wheeled One-seatingScooter-typeFour-wheeledOne-seatingCar-type

Four-wheeledTandem Two-seatingCar-typeFour-wheeledThree-seatingCar-type

OPEN - TOPCLOSED -

TOP

Three-wheeledOne-seatingMotorcycle-typeThree-wheeledOne-seatingScooter-type

Three-wheeled One-seatingSports bike-Type

9

Overview of Micro Mobility Models by Key Global Mainstream OEMs About 125 micro mobility models announced by various stakeholders globally , 50% to go into production

P

P

P

P

PP

P

PPP

PPP P

PP

P PP PPP

PP P

PP P

PP

P

P

P

PP P

P

PP

P

P

P

P = Production ready

P P

P

P

One-Whe

elFour

-Wheel

Three-Wh

eelTwo-

Wheel

PImages: Only for illustration, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis.

4 4 1 5 8 7 12 4 2 20 10 13 7 7 5 2

4

35

35

37

111TotalP

GM Ford Chrysler Renault VW Audi BMW Daimler Fiat PSA Hyundai Honda Toyota Nissan SuzukiGeely

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New Sub A Vehicle Segment 16 Quadricycles in the EU Market Today and Expected to be Over 32 Models by 2013/14; Another 19 Sub-A Vehicles Will Launch in Next 3 to 4 years

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Future (2011-2013)Existing (2010)Quad

ricycle

Sub-A

A C-Zero PSACityTh!nk i0nPSAKaFord 107PSA C1PSAPandaFiat 500Fiat AgilaOpel

Nano EuropaTATA

MicrocarAixam CrosslineAixam ScoutyAixam RoadlineAixam

Electric

BarooderChatenet SpeedinoChatenet

LacostePSA

CH26Chatenet

Twizy Z.E.Renault

SoniqueGrecavAmbraLigier NovaLigierOptimaxLigier BE TwoLigier

MICROC

AR

M.Go ElectricMicrocar

ZENNMicrocar

E-up!VW

Smart EDDaimlerBluezero E-CellDaimler

i-MiEVMitsubishi iQ basedToyota 500 EVFiat

BB1PSA

Leon Twin DriveSeat

Nano EVTATAPOPKia CityLotus

ZeroTazarriE2 PlusEVE QueenstarGEF Motor

EV-NHonda

SC4PSimplicity

MicroTwingoRenaultT27Gordon Murray

NXRREVA

Urban CommuterRinspeedCityFAM AutoSmeraLumeneo

NeomaLumeneo

NT3Piaggio

Eclectic 2Venturi

MyCar CoupeNewteon ?

MioFiat

E--CityPole Vehicule du Futur

T25Gordon Murray

?

TownpodNissan

M.GoMicrocarIxoLigier

G-WizREVABUDDYPure mobility YDEAMicro-VettMega CityAixamXTOOLigier MycarNewteonEstrimaNewteonFriendlyHeuliezEKE BerlinaGrecav F-City Pole Vehicule du FuturIxo ElectricLigier

Key models on display at Paris Motor Show 2010

Land GliderInfiniti

MyCar 4-seatNewteon ?

2 SeaterLittle Electric4 SeaterLittle Electric

Blowcar Dario Di Camillo

NXGREVA

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Series1

Market for Carsharing Services in EuropeTraditional carsharing in Europe expected to reach nearly 15 million members by 2020

~0.70 Million Members

~14.96 Million MembersMix

Percent

Market for Carsharing: Overview of Carsharing Members, Europe, 2011–2020

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

30%5.0%33%

Series1

*All Others include Austria, Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Portugal

32.%

2011 2020Commute-Mode Customer Profile0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

75.0%

100.0%

One-Way

Round-Trip

Corporate

Personal67%

33%

63%

38%

UKFranceGermany

Others*UK

France

Germany

Others*Market for Carsharing: Members Mix Percent Based on Commute-Mode and Customer Profile, Europe, 2020

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Traditional Carsharing in Europe – A SnapshotGermany, UK and Switzerland alone had nearly 77 percent of the Traditional Carsharing Members in 2011

80,000 – 150,00015,000 – 80,000<15,000

• Gocar

Mob Carsharing

• Sunfleet• City Car Club > 150,000

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.13

2020 PotentialNearly 15 million members in networkMore than 240,000 vehicles in carsharing fleet

P2P Carsharing in Europe – A SnapshotFrance, UK and Germany alone had nearly 87 percent of the P2P Carsharing Members in 2011> 80,00015,000 – 80,000<15,000

Carsharing Members in 2011

2020 PotentialNearly 0.75 million members in networkMore than 300,000 cars in P2P carsharing fleet

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Inactive

Operations from 2012

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Case Study : BMW Fleet Strategy for Car SharingExcellent Example of an OEM led Car Sharing Based Mobility ModelBMW On Demand

Corporate Vs. Personal Corporate Carsharing Personal CarsharingType of Carsharing (One-way or Two-way)Market Segment (Premium vs. Mass Market) Corporate segment (Premium) Retail customer - 19,000 members • Premium retail market – BMW ExperienceVehicle Brands offered (BMW vs. Competitor) • Future can be multi-brandEV vs. Non-EV None currently. • None currently.

• BMW i series expected 2013 onwards

Fleet Volume 60-70 vehicle test fleet. 950-1000 vehicles (Munich Berlin, Dusseldorf) • 30 Different Models offered. Future Vision • Commercial launch in 2012

• Expand locations and fleet• Expand EU and NA• Achieve 1 Million DriveNow membership globally – 2020

• Continue as a BMW experience• Expansion key EU cities

2 Way 2 Way1 Way

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.16

The Future of Mobility is for ‘Green’, ‘Integrated’ and ‘Interoperable’ Transport Infrastructure - SMART

Vehicle Sharing

Source: ETSI Congestion Charging

Connectivity

Commercial Vehicle Telematics

V2V & V2X

Electric Vehicles

Real-Time Information ServicesSmart Ticketing/AFC:

Vehicle Management Systems

Source: ETSI

Apps Store Services

IT Infrastructure

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The Future of Mobility Is Multi-Modal Commuting, Combining Door to Door Solutions Using Dedicated Mobility Platforms2020

City

SuburbsIntercity

TRAVEL

DISTANC

E

TRAVEL DISTANCEDestination

PublicTransportation

Private CarsShared Mobility

Micro-mobility

Intercity Bus

Intercity Train

Shared Mobility

Door to door integrated, multi-mobility a reality in futureVehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first and last mile connectivity.Government to club public transport with bike / two wheeler/car rental schemesMarket will see new players in market termed as “Mobility Integrators” Source: Frost & Sullivan

CAR OWNERSHIP

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Convergence in Mobility - Example of Carsharing In addition to dedicated CSOs and OEMs, leasing companies as well as transport operators eye the growing European carsharing market; Convergence expected in the short-termBMW

DaimlerVW

Renault

MobilityGreenwheelsStadtmobil

CambioAutolibZipcar

Avencar

Helsinki public transportSwiss National Railway

Amsterdam City PTBrussels STIB

ALDLeasePlanING Lease

Arval

Vehicle Manufacturers (OEMs)

Transport Operators

Leasing Companies Dedicated CSOs

Point of convergence

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.19

Company Name

Car Leasing and Car-Sharing Public Transport Parking Management

Long distance travel Others

Car Sharing (Traditional)

Car Leasing (Long-term)

Car Rentals (Short-term)

Bike (Cycle) Renting

Scooter renting Intra-CityInter-City Taxi Ferries Bike

ShedsCar

Parking Trains Flight RefuelTele-

conferencing

Others

Transport Operators

Car Companie

s

Leasing

Companie

s

Case Study of Mobility Integration by NS Business

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.20

Case Study of NS Business Card — Mobility Solution Only existing complete MI with 170,000 members and 1200 companies enrolled Business Market

Consumers

Trip Planner

Car Park

OV Chip Card

OV-Fiets

Taxi GreenwheelsCar Rental

Bike Sheds

Service Station

Trains

\Train and Fyra

Transport

Additional services

(Q-Park, Bike Sheds)

Public Transportation (Bus, Tram, Metro)

Taxi, OV-Fiets and

Car Rental

NS Hi Speed Lounge and

Postillion Hotel discounts

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.21

Case Study on Multimodal Transportation, ALD AutomotiveMulti Modal Transport

• Train, Taxi and Bicycle travel using N S Business card

ALD Sharing• Corporate Carsharing• 5 out of 6 leased to Bosch• Pilot in France

E-Drive• Free 10 day trial of electric vehicles ALD Parking

• Flexibility to Start and Stop parking facility through mobile phoneALD RaiLease• Combines lease contract with access to trains

7 Wheel Lease• Piaggio MP3 scooter• Cost Benefits• Less polluting

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.22

Conclusion : Future is James Bond.................

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Conclusion : Future is James Bond or Jason Bourne!

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Learn More About “New Mega Trends”Upcoming Book:New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives By Sarwant Singh     Publisher: Palgrave Macmillanhttp://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=577423

Join Our Mega Trend and Future of Mobility Groups OnMega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research

Contact UsSarwant SinghPartner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation Research Group and Automotive & Transportation

(+44) 2079157843

sarwant.singh@frost.com