media research
DESCRIPTION
Media Research. The time: 1932 The place: Iowa Event: Election of Sect’y of State Who: Ola Babcock Miller George Gallop’s Mother-In-Law FIRST POLITICAL POLL. The Surveying Industry. $1 billion dollar a year business Gallup -Institute of American Public Opinion - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Media Research
The time: 1932The place: IowaEvent: Election of Sect’y of StateWho: Ola Babcock MillerGeorge Gallop’s Mother-In-LawFIRST POLITICAL POLL
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The Surveying Industry
$1 billion dollar a year businessGallup -Institute of American Public OpinionNow about 300 surveying companiesClients: corporations, candidates, media
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Gallop’s Method at first
“quota sampling”1936 Presidential CampaignHe predicted FDR’s victory over Alf Landon1948 Dewey lost to Truman & Gallop realized that he was 5.3% off in his prediction.
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Quota Sampling
Determine total populationDetermine key groupsSample groups proportionately
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Quota sampling example
Total population 100,000Urban males 40,000Urban females 30,000 Rural males 15,000 Rural females 12,000 Others 3,000
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Gallop’s New MethodProbability Sampling
“like making soup”Four Factors: sample size sample selection margin of error confidence level
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Sample Selection
Magic number = 384Total population being studied = n“Interval” = n / 384
Examples top of p. 32810,000 students / 384 = every 26th
student (interval)
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Probability SamplingKey Variables
Sample size The number of people interviewed
Sample selection How people are drawn to be interviewed
Margin of error Percentage survey may be off mark
Confidence level Degree of certainty about accuracy
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Evaluating Surveys Associated Press Checklist
How many people interviewed?How were they selected?When was survey taken?What was margin of error?How was poll conducted? Mail? Phone? Door to door?
How were questions worded?What was the question sequence?
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Sample Size for 95% Confidence Level
Population Size Infinity 500,000 100,000 50,000 10,000 5,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
Sample Size 384 384 383 381 370 357 341 322 278
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Margin of Error for Various Sample Sizes
For population size
Sample Size 384 600 1,067 2,401 9,605
of infinity:
Margin of Error 5% points 4% points 3% points 2% points 1% point
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Criticisms of Polling
Polls can influence undecided voters – Bandwagon effectPoliticians watch the polls too much, rather than just doing what’s right.
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Gallup’s reply
“George Gallop, who died in 1984… (replied that)…good surveys give voice to the ‘inarticulate minority’ that legislators otherwise might not hear.”
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Measuring Audience Size
Print media – Audit Bureau of CirculationsBroadcast media – audience surveys
interviewsdiariesmeters
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Broadcast ratings
Began in 1929 – Archibald Cross, radio1940’s – Nielsen – demographics: age and gender groups1950’s Nielson moved into TV ratings
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TV ratings- 2 scales
“rating” - % of TV households viewing a show“share” - % of households with a TV set turned onStudy the sample Nielsen report in the text.
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Audience Analysis
Demographics – developed in the 1930’s by Gallup, Crossley, and othersCohort Analysis – the generationsGeodemographics – Zip code marketsPsychographics – VALS Values & Life Styles