med_59421.ppt - powerpoint presentation
TRANSCRIPT
James I. Ausman, M.D., Ph.D.
EditorSURGICAL NEUROLOGY
Professor of NeurosurgeryUCLA &
University of Illinois at Chicago
Clinical Healthcare ConsultantNavigant Consultants, Inc; Strategic Planning and
Market Research for the Healthcare Industry
Medical Expert KMIR 6 TV
What your Future will be Like
And
How to Plan for It
What is the likelihood that what we are doing today in Medicine and Neurosurgery will be the same at
the end of the 21st century?
NONE
The World We Live In:Present and Future
The Future of Healthcare
• We are in a wartime economy- will last for years
• Our GNP will grow at 3% / year not 7%
• Healthcare is 16% of the GNP in the USA-2006• Health insurance premiums went up >7% this year
• In 2015 it will be 20% of the GNP
• 2 trillion dollars will be spent on healthcare this year
• The Government controls 45% of healthcare expenditures; this % will rise to 49%
• Others bill at Medicare or % of Medicare rates
• There will be no more money available for doctors or hospitals
The Future of Healthcare
•How will you make money in this environment?
•Cut costs
•Larger group
•Efficient operation
•Volume with good payers
•Find other ways to generate revenue
The Economy in the Future
• We are in a global economy
• What is happening in Industry?• Mergers and acquisitions• Large corporations• Multinational corporations• Competition on the basis of price; companies need to
survive; have become larger, global
• Healthcare costs increasing to industry• Employees have larger copays• Healthcare costs are going up; no one likes it• Companies are cutting retirement benefits
The Economy in the Future
• Healthcare• Has large players: Government, Insurance Co, Hospitals
• Physicians • 50% solo or small group (3 or less)• Disunited• How can you play effectively in this market?
• Failing business strategy
The Economy in the Future
•How do you survive in this market?
• Become larger for greater market power• Greater market share• More political power
• What are you doing to help the community in this time of limited funds?
Neurosurgery: The national picture
• 3000 neurosurgeons in the USA• Few specialized• Most selling the same products• Most in major cities
• Competition• Interventional neuroradiology- advancing technology• Ortho, plastic, vascular surgery: spine, peripheral nerve,
vascular
• Because less pay from payers• Increased volume• No time for R&D• No chance to advance
• Where are you going to be in 10 years with this strategy?
Neurosurgery: The national picture
• This is a formula for certain business failure• No R&D • No new products • No differentiation from competitors
• Solution:• Merge with others• R&D• New strategy: larger group
Neurosurgery: The case market
• 17,000 new primary brain tumors ( 5/ neurosurgeon/ year)
• 100,000+ metastases (33/ neurosurgeon/ year)
• 700,000 new strokes per year
• 25,000 SAH , aneurysms & AVMS
• 200,000 carotid endarterectomies
• Epilepsy: 2,000,000 +people
• 1-2% have Parkinsons’s
• Back pain most common cause of loss of work • only 10% need surgery
• Pain is the most common symptom of patients
Neurosurgery: The case market
•Solutions:
•Concentrate on large volumes in market
•Expand market share: Provide full service
•Need to have a larger group to do this
•Need time for R&D
•Subspecialize
•What neurosurgeons are doing with the figures above
•If you choose a niche, be a “Focused Factory”
Physicians: A psychological analysis
• Intelligent, Individualistic
• Ego driven
• Know it all
• “Do what I tell you”
• Cannot work together
• Unwilling to change
• Politically naïve
• Poor negotiators and business mentality
• Used to arguing
• Risk Averse
Your business adversary: A psychological analysis• Goal Directed
• Intelligent
• Ego driven
• One leader speaks, the rest follow
• Have a strategy
• Organized, work as a team
• Will change to gain market share and succeed
• Politically savvy
• Good negotiators and business mentality
• Work as a team (I pay your salary: do what I say)
• Risk Takers
Which of these two opponents will win at the negotiating table?
Your business adversary: A psychological analysis
•The world you compete in is a business world not the OR
•Learn the RULES
Physicians: A psychological analysis
• Solutions• Hire people who believe as you do
• Those who do not fit don’t hire or fire• Change your way of dealing with people• Get a Strategic Plan
How to negotiate to get what you want
• Physicians say, “ Do what I say now”
(no negotiation)
“Be happy with half-victories and come back for the rest later”-
Lyle French, M.D. As he went from Chairman of Neurosurgery to VP of Health Sciences
What your patients think of your service
• Hard to get an appointment; Automated answering service
• Waits to see doctor; patient’s time is not valuable
• Fragmented care; specialized care; go to multiple doctors; lost time & $
• “96,000 patient deaths per year caused by doctors”
• Doctors make too much money; (look at the cars they drive)
• Expectations are unlimited• Press; doctors; self-centered generation (boomers)
• Patients do not want to pay co-pays• But rather spend on VCR, golf or etc
• They understand some of the system problems affecting you
What your patients think of your service
• Solutions:• You must deal with patients’ perceptions, not reality! The
customer is right!• Change your way of doing business• Better PR: locally, nationally• Academic Centers are the worst at service
• can only leverage their unique treatments• You must work like you never have enough business
(Avis)• Do you have an unlisted phone number?• Is your office phone automated?• YOU ARE IN THE SERVICE INDUSTRY; PROVIDE
SERVICE!
The Future: Nursing and other paramedical professions
• Nursing• Shortage now• Worse in the Future• Nurses seeking other careers with better respect, pay and
independence• Climbing pay
• Paramedical Professions• Growth industry• Climbing pay
•What did you learn from analyzing your business from the available information
today?
Solutions so far• Healthcare environment
• Cut costs; larger group; efficient operation; volume- payer
• Global Economy• Larger group for market and political power
• Neurosurgery: national market place• Present formula is a business failure; Differentiate yourself from your competition• Merge; R&D; larger group
• Neurosurgery: case market• Concentrate on large volume: Tumors: mets and others; pain and spine; Movement disorders; epilepsy;
vascular disease; need larger group
Solutions so far
• Physician personality• Hire people who believe as you do • change your behavior• Get advice and strategic plan
• Opponent’s personality• You are playing in a business marketplace not the OR; Learn the rules
• How to negotiate• Be happy with 1/2 victories and come back for the rest later; Change; learn to negotiate
• What do your patients (customers) think of your business?• Change; PR; Customer focus; You are in the Service Business
What about your own Personal Future?
Do you have enough money to retire?
If you retire at 65 and live to 90sHow much money will you need to allow you to
live the way you want for 30 years?
At least 10 million dollars in the bank at retirement or more
The Future: Trends in Neuroscience Research
Where research is leading us
Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us
• Neurosurgery:• Less invasive approaches to neurosurgical diseases
• Aneurysms, AVMs, pituitary tumors, some spine• Successful molecular treatments for neoplastic diseases
• CML, medulloblastoma, meningioma, ALL• Will eliminate skull base surgery for tumors, and other
grossly invasive approaches for neoplasms • Imaging indicating functional significance of every part of
brain.• damage to cognitive brain functions by standard
neurosurgical procedures• Will change neurosurgery to a minimally invasive
technical specialty
Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us
• Neurosurgery:• Understanding molecular level dynamic genetic and
biochemical processes • Will need constant evaluation and changes in treatment
• Trauma, ischemia, spinal cord injury, spinal cord repair• Care of the Recovering and Injured Brain
• Neurointensive Care. • Will overlap interests of neurologists who will be
treating different diseases similarly• Neurosurgeon will become less surgical. Will there be
a neurosurgeon?
Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us
• Neurology: chronic and progressive diseases
• Will have genetic and molecular bases• Imaging will reveal causes of these• Neurology and Neurosurgery will overlap
• Pain: Genetic differences; Fiber tract differences
• Will require knowledge of psychiatrist, neurologist, neurosurgeon and rehabilitationist to treat patient successfully
Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us
• Psychiatry:
• Cognitive & Functional Diseases will have a genetic basis.
• These disorders will be understood in molecular terms.
• Imaging will reveal basis for cognitive and functional disorders
• Psychiatry and Neurology will merge with Neurosurgery
Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us
• Neurosurgery, Neurology and Psychiatry: • We are all looking at the same brain
• INTERDISCIPLINARY RELATIONSHIP
• In academic centers, Basic Neuroscientists will join clinical neuroscientists• Grants will be awarded to teams of neuroscientists• Examples at present:
• Stroke• Pain• Epilepsy (MINCEP)• Movement Disorders
The Future: The Neurosciences Market
The Neurosciences Market Is Large But Diffuse
4,600
4,000
2,500
2,000
1,000
400 350 350250 200
30 300
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Stroke Alzheimer’sdisease
Traumatic braininjury
Epilepsy Parkinson’sdisease
Lumbar spinalstenosis
Brain tumor Multiple sclerosisSpinal cord injury Dystonia Amyotrophiclateral sclerosis
Huntington’sdisease
Estimated Prevalence in U.S. (in thousands)
Total = 15 million – 90 million(with cognitive, functional and behavioral disorders contributing
75 million 1 /3 of the population)
Value of a Neurosurgeon
$3.1
$2.4$2.2
$1.9 $1.9$1.8 $1.8
$1.0
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
CardiovascularSurgery
Neurosurgery Vascular Surgery Cardiology Orthopedic SurgeryGeneral Surgery Hematology /Oncology
Neurology
Average Hospital Inpatient and Outpatient Revenue Generated Annually (millions)
Inpatient Care Is More Concentrated at Teaching Hospitals
27%
23%22%
21%20% 20%
18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Nervous System Musculoskeletal/Connective TissueCirculatory System Mental Diseases/Disorders Digestive System Pregnancy/Childbirth Diseases & Disorders of the
Respiratory System
All Discharges = 22%
Percent of U.S. Discharges at Teaching Hospitals
1
Market Realities: Emerging Physician Shortages
Supply and Demand
Availab
le U.S
. Neu
rosu
rgical P
ositio
ns
Neu
rosu
rgeo
ns
Pra
ctic
ing
in U
.S.
Neurosurgery
Supply
Demand
Source: AANS Bulletin; Winter, 2003; Too Many? Too Few?
Shortages Continue for Other Specialists
• Spurred by declines in specialty residencies, demand for select specialists are expected to rise (1994 vs. 1999)Orthopedic residents
declined 9%Radiology residents declined
13%Oncology residents declined
63%
Market Realities:A Sellers Market
Neurosurgeon WantedFebruary 3, 2005
• $600,000 salary 1st year (maybe higher)
• 1 in 5 call
• Southern Ohio metro city
Two Neurosurgeons Wanted
February 10, 2005
• $650,000 base salary
• $50,000 sign-on bonus
• 18 months to partnership
• No managed care
• Team support and group approach in the OR
• Located in Midwest
How Competitive Is Your Market/Organization?
ED Coverage Forcing the Issue
% Hospitals Naming Specialty Among Hardest to Secure ED Coverage
(n=1,501)
0.3%
0.5%
1.5%
1.9%
4.0%
4.7%
5.9%
7.2%
7.7%
15.8%
15.9%
20.3%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Urology
Pediatrics
Behavioral Health
Plastic Surgery
OB/Gyn
Orthopedics
Oral Surgery
Ophthalmology
General Surgery
Cardio/Thoracic Surgery
Neurology
Neurosurgery
% Reporting DifficultyAverage Daily Stipend Range
$1,000 - $2,000
$150 - $300
$1,000 - $1,200
$800 - $1,200
$800 - $1,000
$800 - $1,000
$1,000 - $2,000
$400 - $600
$800 - $1,000
$100 - $300
$150 - $300
$800 - $1,000
For facilities with resident
coverage, this situation has
been particularly problematic due to new residency work week limits
#1
Source: Tiber Group analysis; AHA and The Lewin Group TrendWatch (March, 2001); Governance Institute
Less Hospital-Physician Competition
Solo 2 Person 3 Person4 to 8 Person
Over 8 Person
All Physicians 33% 11% 9% 22% 25%
Neurologists 47% 7% 4% 22% 20%
Cardiologists 16% 7% 12% 27% 38%
Distribution of Physicians by Group Size (2001)
Capital Cost of Neuroscience Equipment
Aging Populace Requires More Hospitalization
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 65-74 yrs 75-84 yrs 85+ yrs
Days of Care Hospital Discharges
Source: National Hospital Discharge Survey, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 1998
Rate Per 1,000 Population
50% of 50% of Today’s Today’s
PopulationPopulation
Baby Boomers today
Expect Long-Term Rise in U.S. Hospital Admissions
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
3719
81
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997 19
99
U.S. Hospital Admissions
(Millions)
The Neuroscience Market-Summary
• There is a large volume of people with neurological and functional disorders- 90 million
• The number of neurosurgeons and neurologists is decreasing
• Many in solo or small group (<3) group practice
• Neuroscience is “expensive-equipment intensive”
• Complex neurological conditions seen more at academic or major centers
• Neurosurgery is big IDP revenue generator, second to cardiac; hospitals need to find other sources of revenue
• Baby boomers will increase demand for services in the next 20 years; neurosciences will benefit
• People are living longer with chronic diseases
• Research dollars are increasing
• Neuroscience is next big area for hospital program growth
The Neuroscience Market-Summary
• How should you take advantage of these changes and opportunities?
• Should you do what you are doing or change?
• Academic Medical Centers? What strategy?
Future-Neurosciences & Healthcare Delivery
• Scientific knowledge doubles every 7 years• Impossible for one physician to know everything
• HOW ARE YOU GOING TO KEEP UP IN THIS RAPIDLY CHANGING WORLD?
Future-Neurosciences & Healthcare Delivery
YOU WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO SPECIALIZE
THUS, YOU MUST WORK IN GROUPS
THE LARGER, THE BETTER
You will be more satisfied professionally
Have more time to be good
To be with your family
To learn
BUT
What will you give up to get there?
Some independence
• New methods of compensation in a group. Who is most important?
Future-Neurosciences & Healthcare Delivery
What if you decide not to Change?
Where will you be?
Alone
With less satisfaction, less knowledge than your peers, no power,
And less money
Future-Neurosciences & Healthcare Delivery
What happened to the Mom and Pop Store around the corner?
WALMART
What happened to Chrysler, the Steel Companies
What happened to the community hospital?
What Happened to the University of Minnesota Medical Center?
Does the Mayo Clinic have it right?
Given all the things you have learned About
The world we live in
Your Personal Family NeedsThe Neurosceinces market
The Progress of Neuroscience
What is you Plan to Succeed in this World?
Will your present Strategy Work?
NOT A CHANCE
The Minneapolis-St.Paul Neurosurgical Market
Good NeurosurgeonsKnow & respect each other
Fragmented; Competing
Hospitals have the PowerNeurosurgeons don’t
Is there a better solution?
Some Solutions
•Do your market research
• Assess your strengths and weaknesses
•Get a strategic plan
Solutions: What can we do?
•Implementing your strategic plan
•Add neuroclinicians
•Select programs
Solutions: General Principles
•Form a larger group to gain power in the marketplace
•Start with (?size) group (How are you going to build this corporation?)
•Recruit•Costly
•need financing•Get loan; partners at risk
•Advantages•Build with people who have your interest•No arguments•New knowledge with young people
Solutions: General Principles
•Form a larger group to gain power in the marketplace
•Merge•Shortens time to build•Already tested people; experience•Disadvantages
•Independent•Set in ways•Philosophy differences
•Become Employed•Work with hospital for win-win
Solutions: General Principles
Physician Compensation (continued)
Neurosurgery
NeurosurgeryMean 25th %'ile Median 75th %'ile 90th %'ile
Overall 576,880 413,370 533,562 708,076 891,336 Region Specific
Eastern 593,275$ 500,000$ 637,384$ 698,211$ 742,190$ Midwest 593,380$ 434,887$ 533,456$ 728,327$ 899,184$ Southern 625,029$ 446,474$ 562,000$ 820,000$ 951,737$ Western 450,453$ 344,335$ 410,006$ 474,718$ 810,808$
Source: MGMA - Physician Compensation and Production Survey
2004 Report Based on 2003 Data (n=169)
Physician Productivity (continued)
Neurosurgery
How productive are your physicians?
Source: MGMA - Physician Compensation and Production Survey
2004 Report Based on 2003 Data (n=169)
NeurosurgeryMean 25th %'ile Median 75th %'ile 90th %'ile
Compensation 576,880 413,370 533,562 708,076 891,336
Total RVUs 18,115 15,053 17,967 21,716 24,679 Work RVUs 8,637 6,364 8,715 10,593 12,520
Comp per TRVU 32.54$ 26.31$ 29.35$ 35.81$ 49.90$ Comp per WRVU 63.85$ 45.80$ 55.73$ 71.47$ 97.50$
•Select Programs for Development
•Super-specialize (Can everyone do everything in your corporation?)•Concentrate cases
•Vascular, spine, peds, tumor•Expand (How can you get the best products for your customers?)
•Neurologists•Screen patients
•Psychiatry•Pain evaluation; other
•Rehab•Imaging
•interventional•Plastics•Ortho•Psychologists
•Other ideas
Solutions: General Principles
•Other ideas: How are you going to make this corporation successful?
•Serve community needs•Get community on your side
•PR•R&D•Education
•Industry •Schools
•Compensation•May need new compensation schemes
Solutions: General Principles
•Satellites•Allows expansion and produces income for growth; direct to bottom line•Win Win for community and AMC•Do not drain from satellite to AMC•Do what can be done there; transfer rest;•“Close beats far”•Develop neurosurgery there•They want to make money too!
Solutions: General Principles
•Other businesses•Franchise care to others•TV monitoring•Sell services to other hospital - ER
•Politics-get involved•Local, state,
•Focus cases at one hospital; complex cases•You are running a multimillion dollar corporation•Large group has power to do this
•Disease Management & Interdisciplinary care
Solutions: General Principles
•Other ideas•Finances
•Loan•Need BUSINESS MANAGER
•Compensation Schemes•Eat what you kill•Redistribute•Combined economy- value point system•Socialism won’t work
Solutions: General Principles
•NEUROSURGEONS DON’T GET IT!•How do you subspecialize? I want to be a generalist. I am as good as X. I just want to practice medicine. Those d--n administrators!
•GET ADVICE, GET ADVICE, GET ADVICE•What do you do if you have a clinical problem?•You have to spend money to make money•PR, Consultants, Business advice
•Retired CEO•Think like the head of a multimillion dollar corporation, not like a neurosurgeon
Solutions: General Principles
•Academic Medical Centers (AMC) are failing in the market place
•Because of need for money, forced clinical enterprises to support center•Less time devoted to research•Competition with referral sources•Cannot compete on amenities and convenience•Lose leverage that distinguishes AMC from community•Failing strategy•Doctors do not understand economics, market principles, or business strategy•Teaching, Research and Practice is the fall back position
Solutions: Academic Medical Centers
•AMC•Need to leverage strength
•huge resources and research base•For future that is interdisciplinary and disease management,
•AMCs can do this easier than anyone in the market •Need to leverage research, basic science, engineering, other disciplines•Be in forefront of medicine and science•Compliment community physicians•Doctors need to change! ( So does the administration) •Pursue strategies outside the administration; You will not make money with their plans
•AMCs are suffering from ACADEMENTIA
Solutions: Academic Medical Centers
Spine Program
250,000 instrumented fusions done in 2004, 3X as many as in 1994
$750,000,000 in 2004 by Gov’t on fusions
National bill for hardware is $2.5 billion a year
“Little scientific evidence fusion works better than laminectomy..”
Up to 4X more money for a fusion……( for the doctor)
2-4X as much for the hospital
“Fewer than 50% necessary”- Ed Benzel
NEJM; 350; 2003
NEJM 355: 522-523, 2005
•A Molecular Cure for Arthritis
James I. Ausman, M.D., Ph.D.
Surg. Neurol. 60:469, 2003;
61:313, 2004
•Spine Centers: Is this the way to go?•Pays $•Instrumentation costly for hospital•No proof treatments work•Government will interfere; NY is already interfering•“Death of Spine Surgery”•Surgery is only 10% of the market; What about the other 90%
Solutions: Special Centers
•What to do: Set up a SPINE AND PAIN CENTER•Captures rest of Spine Pain market (other 90%)•Interdisciplinary•Psychologists•OT, PT•Physiatry•Accupuncture, blocks•Other•Surgery
•Strategy is to keep the patient whatever happens to the politics or reimbursement
Solutions: Special Centers
Pearls of Wisdom from the Business Community
• The Secret of Innovation:• “Find our what everyone else is doing, and don’t do it!
• The Ultimate Market Control:• “You physicians are the only ones who can do what you do. You can
control the market totally, and no one can do anything about it. I do not understand why physicians have given up their power in the market place!
Pain and Spine CentersComprehensive Stroke CentersNeurointensive CareFunctional NeurosurgeryDepression, Obsessive Complusive disorders, Functional disordersRehabilitationRadiosurgery Cancer Teams EpilepsyPsycho-neuro-endo-immunologyNano medicineTrauma neurosurgery & carePeripheral Nerve Treatment
Future fields of opportunity
Hospitals vs Doctors
•“Silo Mentality” from the 20th Century
•Hospitals, doctors and suppliers compete with each other for the healthcare dollar
•New relationships required•Hospitals and doctors will have to cooperate and share risk and reward to compete
•Joint ventures
•Hospital administrators will also have to change
•Those who get it will win in the market place
Hospitals, Doctors and the Healthcare System of the Future
Doctors’ Secret Weapon
•There will be a shortage of physicians in 10 years•There is and will be a shortage of neurosurgeons•The population will be increasing•Baby boomers will want more care•Supply Demand equation for physicians
•Will physicians drop Medicare?•Will the government make medicine a “right”?•People will pay for quality or……•Only if physicians utilize this power properly will they succeed
•You can decide to work for the hospital and forget all of this aggravation!
The Secret Weapon of Doctors in the Future
What a Futurist says about our Future
Ray Kurzweil; The Futurist. January February 2006
The Future by Ray Kurzweil
• The Past 200 years (1800’s)
•Women lived to 35 years old; today to 85
•1/2 day to prepare a meal
•Physical labor for most things
•No social safety nets
•Still Billions live in this manner-2000
The Future by Ray Kurzweil
•Human scientific progress in Exponential
•All of the discoveries of the 1900s are equal to 20 years of discoveries at the rate of progress in 2000;
•By 2100 1000X more progress than today
•20 years of progress will be made by 2020
•20 years more in 2027
The Future by Ray Kurzweil
•Overlapping Revolutions:
•Genetic
•Nanotechnology
•Robotic
The Future by Ray Kurzweil
•Genetic Revolution:
•Genomics
•Proteomics
•Gene therapy
•Targeted drug therapy
•Cloning of cells, tissues , and organs
The Future by Ray Kurzweil
•Nanotechnology Revolution: 2030
•Microchips under the skin
•100s of medicines from wells responding to metabolic changes
•Telepathic communication
•Expansion of memories
•Nanorobots in our bodies destroying disease
The Future by Ray Kurzweil
•Robotic Revolution: 2030
•Artificial Intelligence (AI)
•By 2100 will be trillions of times faster than the human brain
•Will exceed biological intelligence by 2040
•AI can handle more complex data than the human brain
•Computers will have lifelike intelligence
The Future by Ray Kurzweil
•The Next 100 years
•Eliminating 50% of preventable diseases will extend life expectancy to 150 years
•Eliminating 90% to 1000 years
•Technology will eliminate poverty, disease, pollution and other problems
•“It can’t be done”•“I can’t do it”•“I am too busy”•“That will never work”•“I can’t work with that guy-he’s…..”•“It’s the system”•“What can one person do?”•“You can’t fight the government”• “But medicine is not a business!”• “It’s the government; it’s the HMO or insurer…..”•“This guy is out of touch” •“These changes will take years”
•Have you become accustomed to losing? Are you a loser?
The Language of Failure
“I know all the reasons why it can be done, now find a way to do it!”
The Language of Success
“I don’t take NO for an answer!”
I am not interested in popularity
I am interested in results
•Will I be successful and make money with these ideas?
What choice do you have?The strategies being used by your colleagues are failing. (Practice and academia)
You have no choice but to change
Final Question
Do you think you are going to RETIRE?If you live into your 90’s, do you have enough money put away
to support your idea of retirement?
Are you Happy?
A few last notes
What about this idea of Retirement?
Can you or the country afford it?
Can you stand it?
Does the Brain Grow with Age?
What are you going to do with the rest of your life?
Nature 420: 788-794; 2002
•THE PATIENT COMES FIRST
•If your put the patient first, you will never have to worry about money,
•If you put money first, you will lose both
There is only one RULE
What is the likelihood that what we are doing today in Medicine and Neurosurgery will be the same at
the end of the 21st century?
NONE
Future Trends and Predictions
AMA News: 2/9/06
Whom do people trust?
•World Population is 6.5 Billion ; 9.0 billion by 2050
•1 billion are connected to each other by the Internet•In 15 years , majority of world will be connected
•Increasing numbers of people are poor, unhealthy and lack access to education
•60% of our life support systems are gone or in danger of collapse
•Forests and oceans absorb 3 -3.5 billion tons of carbon/year•We generate 7 billion; Rest goes into atmosphere•With 2.5 billion more people by 2050; 14 billion will be generated
Future Trends and Predictions
•1.1 billion people do not have access to safe water
•2.6 billion lack adequate sanitation
•Only 17% of world’s people live in countries with free press
•Conventional military force has little effect on civil war, terrorism and crime
•WMD will be available to many
•Oil reserves have peaked and will decline
Future Trends and Predictions
•US traffic jams alone waste 2.3 billion gallons of gas
•Military Spending is 1 billion dollars•Income from crime is 2 billion dollars
•3-4 billion have access to good health and living conditions
•The Futurist Jan-Feb 2006, Glenn, J and Gordon, T: Update on the State of the Future
Future Trends and Predictions
How we are delivering healthcare now
SPECIALTY CARE
Patient must see a series of specialists to obtain solution for medical problem
Inefficient
Delays diagnosis
Patient loses time and money by waiting
Industry loses time and money of employee
How will we deliver healthcare in the future?
DISEASE MANAGEMENT
Back Pain is the Disease Management Category
vs.
The fragmented specialty care of Neurosurgical/ Orthopedic treatment, Rehabilitation, Epidural injections from Anesthesiologists,
Psychological care, or Rehabilitation
With DISEASE MANAGEMENT the patient sees all the specialists in one setting and the disease problem is solved in that setting. This is
“One Stop Shopping” or “The Focused Factory Concept”
HOW WILL YOU BE DIFFERENT THAN YOUR COMPETITION?
Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us
• INTERDISCIPLINARY CARE and DISEASE MANAGEMENT will Distinguish you in the marketplace from others
• The INTERDISCIPLINARY relationship of neurologists, neurosurgeons and psychiatrists with the basic neuroscientists will
• give the neuroscience group power in the academic center and the ability to obtain research grants.
• This relationship will also promote the pre-eminence of the neuroscience group in the community.
Relationship between Genetics and BehaviorExperiment:
Two groups of subjects: 1/2 with long form, 1/2 with short form
Each presented fear image
fMRI scanned brain and found R amygdyla activity
R amygdala activity was significantly increased in those with short form who also had more fearful response
Study links genetic variation to differences in brain activityDid not verify serotonin activity in brainsReason for differences in behavior of individuals?
Criminal activity, suicide, affective illness, abnormal levels of anxiety
Bio-psychosocial aspects of pain
Pain can become a learned behavior
imaging shows more activation of primary motor sensory cortex and
patient has more sensitivity
H. Flor ( Lancet 357:1763, 2001)believes that structural changes occur in pain pathways with chronicity
leading to heightened excitibility in pain
Feeling pain may be generated without stimulus
Phantom limb
Stimulation of limb can reduce somatosensory field of pain (Adv Neurol 93: 195-204, 2003)
A New form of treatment based on Plasticity of Neurons
Bio-psychosocial aspects of pain
Chronic back pain- Flor, H.(Arthritis Rheum. 53:343-350, 2005)
With “solicitous spouse” present
exacerbated response
Imaging shows increased activity in Anterior Cingulate Cortex
Anticipation of pain can produce pain ( Brain 127:2339-2347, 2004)
Physician Compensation
2004 Neuro Physician Compensation
National Comparison
$891,336
$994,180
$233,315
$485,249
$213,362$161,344
$485,121
$190,973
$533,562
$333,535
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
Neurosurgery Neurology Orthopedic - Spine Psychiatry Physiatry
Median90th %ile
Source: MGMA-Physician Compensation and Production Survey – 2004 Report based on 2003 data
Physician Productivity
Median RVUs
17,967
8,612
16,079
5,330
8,244
3,7444,3804,597
8,7159,082
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Neu
rosu
rger
y
Neu
rolo
gy
Ort
hope
dic - S
pine
Psyc
hiat
ry
Phys
iatr
y
Total RVUsWork RVUs
Source: MGMA-Physician Compensation and Production Survey – 2004 Report based on 2003 data