mature q1 2011 update

1 Nokia Siemens Networks Level 1 benchmark mature markets.ppt / [email protected] / 4.7.2011

Operational efficiencyBenchmark based on published data [Level 1]

Mature markets*Updated 4 July, 2011

Nokia Siemens Networks

[email protected]

*) Markets with Very high or High UN Human Development Index 2010 (>0,677) and High or Upper ITU ICT Development Index 2008 (>3,64)


1. Level 1 benchmarkingMobile operators



Telia, SESonera, FI

Netcom, NO

Telia, DK

EMT, EE

LMT, LV

Omnitel, LT

Yoigo, ES

MegaFon, RU

T-Mobile, AT

T-Mobile, CZ

T-Mobile, HU

T-Mobile, NL

T-Mobile, HR

T-Mobile, SK

T-Mobile, US

8

1

9

Cosmote, RO

7 O2, SK

O2, IE

Telefnica, UY 4

Telefnica, VE

10

E-plus, DE

BASE, BE

Bit, LTBit, LV

Telenor, HU2 3

Telenor, RS5

Elisa, EE

3, SE+DK

Si.mobil, SI

6

Vip operator, MKMobiltel, BG

Vip mobile, RSVelcom, BY

SFR, FR

Bouygues Telecom, FR

Tele2, SE

Tele2, NO

Tele2, LT

Tele2, LV

Tele2, EE

Tele2, HR

Tele2, NL

Tele2, RU

Pelephone, IL

Cellcom, IL

Optimus, PT

Turkcell, TR

Astelit Life, UA Astelit Life, BY

Wataniya Telecom, KW

Mobily, SA

TracFone, US

SK Telecom, KR

Avea, TR

AT&T, US

Verizon, US

Sprint Nextel, US

Telus, CARogers, CA

Bell Canada, CA

Mobilcom Debitel, DE

MetroPCS, US

U.S. Cellular, US

Leap Wireless, US

R = 0,92

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Reven

ue p

er

su

bscri

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UR

]

OPEX per subscription per month [EUR]

Legend1=Cosmote, GR2=Digi, MY3=Telenor, ME4=Vivo, BR5=TIM, BR

6=VIPnet, HR7=Orange, PL8=PTC Era, PL9=Globul, BG10=Oi, BR

Trend line

0% EBITDAmargin line

High competition level means lower EBITDA margin

Mobile: ARPU vs. OPEX per subscription Q1 2011

Mature marketsAverage EBITDA margin 31,7%*Down from 33,9% in FY 2010*) Many operators have not reported in Q1 2011

Trend line: EBITDA margin % lower

with higher ARPU customers

Disproportionate customer acquisition

& retention costs driving OPEX per sub

Average EBITDA margin line

Source: Q1 reports for operators with fiscal year ending December if reported 22 May

Reading guide Reporting period for operators with fiscal year

(FY) ending December.

Operators with

alternative reporting

cycle marked 1) for FY

ending in March or 2) for

FY ending in June

Operator type: publicly reported data in graphical format

Market type

Operators

Data normalized into

common currency


Telia, SESonera, FI

Netcom, NO

Telia, DK

EMT, EE

3

Omnitel, LT

Yoigo, ES

MegaFon, RU

T-Mobile, AT

T-Mobile, CZ

T-Mobile, HU

T-Mobile, NL

8

T-Mobile, SK

T-Mobile, US

7

1

11

Cosmote, RO

Orange, PL

O2, SK

O2, IE

Telefnica, UY 6

Telefnica, VE

12

5

BASE, BE

Bit, LTBit, LV

Telenor, HU2 4

Telenor, RS10

Elisa, EE

3, SE+DK

Partner Orange, IL

MTS, UA

MTS, BY

Si.mobil, SI

9

Vip operator, MKMobiltel, BG

Vip mobile, RSVelcom, BY

SFR, FR


Tele2, SE

Tele2, NO

13

Tele2, LV

Tele2, EE

Tele2, HR

Tele2, NL

Tele2, RU

Pelephone, IL

Cellcom, IL

TMN, PT

Optimus, PT

Turkcell, TR

Astelit Life, UA Astelit Life, BY

Vimpelcom, RU

Mobitel, SI

Wataniya Telecom, KW

Zain, KW

Zain, BH

Zain, SA

Mobily, SA

TracFone, USMaxis, MYCelcom, MY

SK Telecom, KR

Avea, TR

AT&T, US

Verizon, US

Sprint Nextel, US

Telus, CARogers, CA

Bell Canada, CA

Mobilcom Debitel, DE

MetroPCS, US

U.S. Cellular, US

Leap Wireless, US

R = 0,9173

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Reven

ue p

er

su

bscri

pti

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per

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[E

UR

]


Legend1=Cosmote, GR2=Digi, MY3=LMT, LV4=Telenor, ME5=E-plus, DE

6=Vivo, BR7=T-Mobile, PL8=T-Mobile, HR9=VIPnet, HR10=TIM, BR

11=Globul, BG12=Oi, BR13=Tele2, LT

Trend line



Mobile: ARPU vs. OPEX per subscription Q1 2011

Mature marketsAverage EBITDA margin 32,3%*Down from 33,9% in FY 2010*) Many operators have not reported in Q1 2011



Disproportionate customer acquisition

& retention costs driving OPEX per sub


Source: Q1 reports for operators with fiscal year ending December if reported 1 July


0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

T-M

ob

ile,

NL

VIP

ne

t, H

R

O2, IE

Yoig

o, E

S

Bell

Canada,

CA

Netc

om

, N

O

Te

lia, D

K

Bouygues T

ele

com

, F

R

Tele

fnic

a, V

E

Telu

s,

CA

Si.m

obil,

SI

T-M

obile

, C

Z

T-M

obile

, S

K

BA

SE

, B

E

TM

N,

PT

T-M

obile

, H

R

EM

T, E

E

Ro

ge

rs, C

A

Telia

, S

E

Optim

us, P

T

Viv

o, B

R

Sonera

, F

I

Tele

nor,

ME

Te

le2

, S

E

Pe

lep

ho

ne

, IL

Pa

rtn

er

Ora

ng

e,

IL

Cellc

om

, IL

T-M

obile

, A

T

T-M

obile

, H

U

TIM

, B

R

E-p

lus, D

E

T-M

obile

, P

L

Mobilt

el, B

G

Tele

fnic

a, U

Y

Tele

nor,

HU

Tele

nor,

RS

Maxis

, M

Y

LM

T, LV

Ora

nge, P

L

Celc

om

, M

Y

Glo

bul, B

G

Cosm

ote

, G

R

Om

nite

l, L

T

DiG

i, M

Y

Tu

rkc

ell,

TR

Spri

nt

Nex

tel,

US

Bit, LT

Ve

lco

m,

BY

T-M

obile

, U

S

Vim

pelc

om

, R

U

Av

ea

, T

R

Tra

cF

one

, U

S

Bit, LV

MegaF

on, R

U

Tele

2,

RU

Cosm

ote

, R

O

MTS

, B

Y

As

telit

Lif

e,

UA

MT

S, U

A

EU

R

Total revenue per minute Total OPEX per minute

Average revenue per minute 0,087 EURAverage OPEX per minute 0,058 EUR

Mobile: Total revenue and OPEX per call minute Q1 2011

Mature markets

Wide spread in the effective revenue and OPEX per call minuteJapan, Netherlands, Norway, France among the most expensive in the world

Lowest effective minute prices in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey

Markets with either high degree of

handset subsidies, low level of

competition or high data revenue

(Japan)



-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Telu

s, C

A

Tele

2,

SE

Te

len

or,

RS

Bell

Canada,

CA

Telia

, S

E

Sprint N

exte

l, U

S

Rogers

, C

A

Tele

fnic

a, U

Y

Viv

o, B

R

Velc

om

, B

Y

Netc

om

, N

O

T-M

obile

, H

U

T-M

obile

, U

S

Part

ner O

range,

IL

Sonera

, F

I

Pele

phone,

IL

MegaF

on, R

U

MTS

, B

Y

Te

le2

, R

U

Op

tim

us

, P

T

Ora

ng

e,

PL

T-M

obile

, P

L

Vim

pelc

om

, R

U

Bo

uy

gu

es

Te

lec

om

, F

R

Ce

llco

m,

IL

EM

T, E

E

T-M

obile

, N

L

Yoig

o, E

S

Tele

nor,

HU

Mobilt

el, B

G

Telia

, D

K

Tele

nor,

ME

T-M

ob

ile,

CZ

O2, IE

T-M

obile

, S

K

Ma

xis

, M

Y

Avea, TR

E-p

lus

, D

E

DiG

i, M

Y

Si.m

obil,

SI

Tele

fnic

a, V

E

TM

N, P

T

BA

SE

, B

E

MTS

, U

A

T-M

ob

ile, A

T

Cos

mote

, G

R

Bit, LT

Om

nitel, L

T

Aste

lit L

ife, U

A

TIM

, B

R

LM

T, LV

T-M

obile

, H

R

Glo

bul, B

G

Co

sm

ote

, R

O

VIP

net,

HR

Celc

om

, M

Y

Turk

cell,

TR

Bit, LV

Tra

cF

one, U

S

Total revenue per minute, change 2010->2011 Total OPEX per minute, change 2010->2011

Mobile: Total revenue and OPEX per call minute trend FY 2010 to Q1 2011

Mature markets

61% of the operators do not manage to reduce OPEX per minute as quickly as the price erosion

Some operators manage to increase effective price per minute without decreasing margin

The trend is based on average EUR rates for respective periodsSince 2008, the currency fluctuations have been extreme, meaning that a trend might not be the same in local currencyThis affects both revenue and OPEX, though

Average revenue per minute -7%Average OPEX per minute -6%



Telia, SE

Sonera, FI

Netcom, NO

Telia, DK

EMT, EE

LMT, LV

Omnitel, LT

Yoigo, ES

T-Mobile, AT

T-Mobile, CZ

T-Mobile, HU

T-Mobile, NL

T-Mobile, HR

T-Mobile, SK

T-Mobile, US

T-Mobile, PL

Cosmote, GR

Globul, BG

Cosmote, RO

Orange, PL

O2, SK

O2, IE

Vivo, BR

Telefnica, VE

Oi, BR

E-plus, DE

BASE, BE Bit, LT

TIM, BR

Partner Orange, IL

MTS, UA

MTS, BY

Pelephone, IL

Cellcom, IL

Turkcell, TR

Vimpelcom, RU

TracFone, US

SK Telecom, KR

AT&T, US

Verizon, US

Sprint Nextel, US

Telus, CA

Rogers, CA

Bell Canada, CA

MetroPCS, US

Leap Wireless, US

R = 0,2629

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

EB

ITD

A m

arg

in

Blended churn rate

In the most competitive markets, operators fight for market share with high customer acquisition & retention costs

Mobile: EBITDA margin vs. churn Q1 2011

Mature markets

Trend line

Trend line: Churn has a negative impact on the EBITDA margin

Trend more negative in markets subsidising handsets heavily



EBITDA margin

2010 restored the margin% to 2008 level (average 34%) even if top line suffered

Q1 2011 indicating a margin drop, but not all operators are reporting Q1 2011 Q1 is also seasonally weaker

Effective minute price erosion

Speeding up: 4% in 2010, 7% so far in Q1 2011 [in EUR]

Partially explained by increasing revenue from non-voice services

Churn

Clear correlation between higher churn and lower EBITDA margin

Indicating generally high customer acquisition costs Net OPEX spent on Marketing & Sales 44% of total

ConclusionsMobile, mature markets


2. Level 1 benchmarkingFixed operators

Note. For fixed, broadband & cable, the following subscription/line definition is used:

Included:

+PSTN/ISDN lines (incl leased lines & phone booths)

+carrier pre-select customers without operator's access line

+xDSL customers

+Cable TV customer

+fibre customers

+Ethernet customers

+WLL customers

+Wholesale customers (PSTN/ISDN, xDSL, ULL)

NOT INCLUDED:

- Internet dial-up customers

- Telephone over broadband bundle customers

- TV over broadband bundle customer

- Internet over broadband bundle customers


Telia, SE

Sonera, FI

NextGenTel, NO

Telia, DK

Elion, EE

TEO, LT

Magyar Telekom, HU

Hrvatski Telekom, HRT-Com, SK

OTE, GR

Romtelecom, RO

TP, PL

Oi, BR

Invitel, HU

Partner Orange, IL

SFR, FR

GVT, BR Tele2, SE

Tele2, NO

Tele2, DE

Tele2, NL

Tele2, AT

Fastweb, IT

Bezeq, IL

Portugal Telecom, PT

Sonaecom, PTZon, PT

Telekom Slovenije, SI

TM, MY

SK Broadband, KR

Trk Telekom, TR

AT&T, US

Verizon, US

Comcast, US

Time Warner Cable, US

Cablevision, US

Telus, CA

Rogers, CA

Bell Canada, CA

Tiscali, IT

Com Hem, SE

Ono, ES

Telenet, BE

Freenet, DE

Netia, PL

Charter, US

Jazztel, ES

Unity Media, DE

UPC, NL

UPC, CH

VTR, CL

J:COM, JP

Ziggo, NL

R = 0,8884

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

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Trend line


Fixed, broadband & cable: ARPU vs. OPEX per subscription Q1 2011

Mature marketsAverage EBITDA margin line



Average EBITDA margin 33,7%*Up from 32,4% in FY 2010*) Many operators have not reported in Q1 2011

Incumbents above the line, challengers most often below



Telia, SE

Sonera, FI

NextGenTel, NO

Telia, DK

Elion, EE

TEO, LT

Telekom, DE

Magyar Telekom, HU

Hrvatski Telekom, HR

T-Com, SK

OTE, GR

Romtelecom, RO

Orange, FR

Orange, ES

TP, PL

Telefnica, CL

Telefnica O2, CZ

Telefnica, AR

Telesp, BR Telefnica, CO

Oi, BR

Invitel, HU

Telenor, NO

Alice, NL

Telecom Argentina, AR

Tellas, GR

HGC, HK

Comstar-UTS, RU

eircom, IE 2)

SFR, FR

GVT, BR

Tele2, SE

Tele2, DE

Tele2, NL

Tele2, ATFastweb, IT

m:tel, BA

Infostrada, IT

Bezeq, IL


Sonaecom, PT

Zon, PT


Entel, CL

iiNet, AU 2)

PCCW, HK

NTT, JP 1)

KDDI, JP 1)

SoftBank Telecom, JP 1)

eAccess, JP 1)

TM, MY

Optus, AU 1)

SK Broadband, KR

Trk Telekom, TR

AT&T, US

Verizon, US

Comcast, US


Cablevision, US

Telus, CA

Rogers, CA

Bell Canada, CA

Tiscali, IT

TalkTalk, UK 1)

Com Hem, SE

Ono, ES

Telenet, BE

Versatel, DE (residential)

Netia, PL

Iliad, FR

Kabel Deutschland, DE 1)BT+Openreach, UK 1)

Charter, US

Jazztel, ES

Unity Media, DE

UPC, NL

UPC, CH

VTR, CL

J:COM, JP

Numbericable Completel, FR

City Telecom, HKBN, HK, 3)

Ziggo, NL

CANTV, VE

R = 0,0359

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

EB

ITD

A m

arg

in

Broadband of total narrowband & broadband subscription base

Trend line

Fixed, broadband & cable: Broadband subscription ratio vs. EBITDA FY 2010

Mature marketsPredominantly incumbent operators

Predominantly cable operators

EBITDA margin % possibly higher with

a high broadband subscription ratio

A polarised graph: high margins are in the 100%

broadband area (cable operators) or in the

incumbent operator area

Shows that own access infrastructure is

critical for margin

Source: FY reports for operators with fiscal year ending December; 9m reports for operators with fiscal year ending March [marked 1)], 1H reports for operators with fiscal year ending June

[marked 2)], 3m reports for operators with fiscal year ending September [marked 3)] if reported 1 July


Telia, SE

Sonera, FI

Elion, EE Telekom, DE

Magyar Telekom, HU


T-Com, SK

OTE, GR

Orange, FR

TP, PL

Telefnica O2, CZ

Telenor, NO

eircom, IE 2)



eAccess, JP 1)

Optus, AU 1)

Trk Telekom, TR

AT&T, US

BT+Openreach, UK 1)

Jazztel, ES

R = 0,0092

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1% 11% 21% 31% 41% 51% 61% 71% 81% 91%

EB

ITD

A m

arg

in

Wholesale of total narrowband & broadband subscription base

Trend line: EBITDA margin % not really affected

by wholesale ratio

Logical that margin would fall as another service provider

wants to make margin on top of the wholesale providers margin

Small sample, though, as many operators dont report wholesale

Fixed, broadband & cable: Wholesale subscription ratio vs. EBITDA FY 2010

Mature markets

Trend line




Telia, SE

NextGenTel, NO

Telia, DK

Eesti Telekom, EE

TEO, LT

Deutsche Telekom, DE

Magyar Telekom, HU


T-Com, SKOrange, FR

Orange, ES

TP, PL

Mobistar, BE

Telefnica, CL

Telefnica O2, CZ

Telesp, BR Telefnica, CO

Oi, BR

Invitel, HU

Telenor, NO

Tellas, GR

Comstar-UTS, RU

SFR, FR

GVT, BR

OTE, GR

Romtelecom, RO


Zon, PT


iiNet, AU 2)

KDDI, JP 1)

AT&T, US

Verizon, US

Comcast, US


Cablevision, US

Telus, CA

Rogers, CA

Tiscali, IT

Com Hem, SE

Ono, ES

Telenet, BE

Netia, PL

Iliad, FR

Kabel Deutschland, DE 1)

BT+Openreach, UK 1)

Charter, US

Jazztel, ES

Unity Media, DE

UPC, NL

UPC, CH

VTR, CLJ:COM, JP

Numbericable Completel, FR

Ziggo, NL

R = 0,0773

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1,01 1,21 1,41 1,61 1,81 2,01 2,21 2,41 2,61

EB

ITD

A m

arg

in

Bundled services (Internet, TV, telephony) per broadband subscription

Fixed, broadband & cable: Bundled services ratio vs. EBITDA FY 2010

Mature markets

Trend line

EBITDA margin % higher with a

higher number of bundled

services (Internet, voice, TV) per

broadband subscription

Logical as a new service adds revenue,

but most of the OPEX comes with the

basic broadband connection




EBITDA margin

Up to above 32% no negative effect of recession on margin% in spite of top line effect Q1 2011 margin even 33,7%, but too early to say if a trend shift as not all operators report Q1

Subscription mix

Operators with a high broadband to narrowband ratio have slightly higher margin

But it is key to own the infrastructure

High dependency on wholesale does not really affect margin

More services bundled per broadband connection raise margin

ConclusionsFixed, mature markets

Challengers in fixed are generally having a difficult position while incumbents continue to dominate

Incumbents have an upside bundling voice & TV on top of broadband


3. Level 1 benchmarkingIntegrated operators

Note. For fixed, broadband & cable part, the following subscription/line definition is used:

Included:

+PSTN/ISDN lines (incl leased lines & phone booths)

+carrier pre-select customers without operator's access line

+xDSL customers

+Cable TV customer

+fibre customers

+Ethernet customers

+WLL customers

+Wholesale customers (PSTN/ISDN, xDSL, ULL)

NOT INCLUDED:

- Internet dial-up customers

- Telephone over broadband bundle customers

- TV over broadband bundle customer

- Internet over broadband bundle customers


Telekom, DE

T-Mobile, CZMagyar Telekom T-Mobile, HU

T-Mobile Online, NL

1

T-Com T-Mobile, SK

Maktel T-Mobile, MK

Crnogorski Telecom T-Mobile, ME

OTE Cosmote, GR

Romtelecom Cosmote, RO

TP Orange, PL

Mobistar, BE + Orange, LU

Telefnica, ES

Telefnica, CL

Telefnica O2, CZ+SK

Telefnica O2, CZ

Telefnica O2, DE

O2 Be, UK

2

Telesp+Vivo, BR

Telefnica, CO

Oi, BR

KPN, NL

TDC, DK

Telenor, NO

Telenor, DK

Telenor BB Glocalnet, SE

Telecom Italia TIM, IT

Telecom Argentina Personal, AR

Elisa, FI+EE

Partner Orange, IL

MTS Comstar-UTS, RU

Telekom Austria mobilkom, AT

SFR, FR


Tele2, SE

Tele2, NO

Tele2, NL

Swisscom, CH

Belgacom Proximus, BE

Virgin Media, UK

DNA, FI

Bezeq Pelephone, IL

Portugal Telecom TMN, PT

Sonaecom Optimus, PT

Zon, PT

Telekom Slovenije Mobitel, SI

One, MKIpko, Kosovo

Etisalat, AE

Qtel, QA

Claro, CL

Claro, AR+PA+UY

3

Comcel, CO

KT KTF, KR

LG U+, KR

Trk Telekom Avea, TR

AT&T, USVerizon, US

Telus, CA

Rogers, CA

Bell Canada, CA

Tiscali, IT

du, AE

Telenet, BE

Freenet Mobilcom Debitel, DE

Jazztel, ES

R = 0,9145

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Reven

ue p

er

su

bscri

pti

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per

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UR

]


Legend1=Hrvatski Telekom T-Mobile, HR2=Telefnica, AR3=Claro, BR

Trend line





Disproportionate customer acquisition &

retention costs driving OPEX per sub

Integrated (fixed & mobile): ARPU vs. OPEX per subscription Q1 2011

Mature marketsAverage EBITDA margin 33,9%*Up from 32,5% in FY 2010*) Many operators have not reported in Q1 2011




EBITDA margin

Stable at around 33%

ARPU continues to decrease, but so does OPEX per subscription

ConclusionsIntegrated, mature markets

EBITDA margin suggests that theres a benefit of being integrated

The margin lead is most often due to an incumbent market position, though

The operational efficiency for an integrated operator is still much driven by the market position within fixed and access to own fixed infrastructure

A challenger operator might not see the same benefit if becoming integrated as it lacks the incumbent market position


4. Higher operational efficiency in three steps

Nokia Siemens Networks efficiency improvement model


Higher operational efficiency in 3 stepsNokia Siemens Networks model

Business impact and value

Step 1:

Benchmarking

Step 2:

Assessment

Step 3:

Solution

What are the issues? Why are the issues there? How can we solve the issues?

Review Review


Operational efficiency benchmarking target & characteristics

Target Find out how your operational efficiency compares

with some of the most efficient operators in the world

Get input on which efficiency targets should be set for specific functions

Key characteristics

Company-wide benchmark for mobile, fixed or integrated operators Productivity, cost efficiency & performance is covered for 30 functions Tailored peer groups for operators both in mature & maturing markets Fresh: Peer group data updated three times a year, lifetime max 12 months Minimised workload: Less than 250 straight-forward numbers needed Quick: Ready in 4 weeks with a realistic 2 weeks for your data gathering

255 operator benchmarks done up to end of 2010

Deliverables of this step

Report with 100-150 pages and 390+ KPIs Management presentations including recommendations

What makes it unique?

Our correlation with your strategy & differentiation

Our solution orientation


Analysis steps in Nokia Siemens Networks operational efficiency benchmarking

Quantitative analysis Qualitative analysis

Peergroup

Non-public data for 7-20

selected operators

Department & function

specific

Level 2&3

Peer group

comparison

390+ KPIs*

?

Better

Average

Worse

Str

ate

gy &

dif

fere

nti

ati

on

Positive gapIn line with strategy

Positive gapNot in line with

strategy: Overdoing

Area of further investigation

Above peers (positive gap)

Negative gapIn line: Deliberate

choice

Negative gapNot in line with

strategy

Potentially a problem

Below peers (negative gap)

Operators worldwide

Reported public data

for 400+ operators

Operator-wide

Level 1

National and international comparison

Ben

ch

mark

ed

op

era

tor

*) 429 KPIs for mobile, 429 for fixed and 390 for integrated operators


Benchmarking team: Contacts

Global capability, local contacts, single communication point:

[email protected]


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