martin ruhs - free movement: economics and politics
TRANSCRIPT
Free Movement:Economics and Politics
Martin [email protected]
How did we get here?
• Numbers• Effects• Changing politics• Negotiating the deal: is the UK exceptional?• EU referendum and current debates
Economic effects • Labour market: wages, employment, etc.• Fiscal: taxes minus benefits • Public services• Economic growth• Inequality
• Mostly + for migrants• Often + but perhaps more mixed for
countries of origin
Social and political effects • “pace of change” • “social effects/change” • “out of control” public opinion
Changing politics of free movement
• Open up to A8 in 2004• Limits on A2 in 2007• Change of gvt in 2010 reduce net-migration• Now almost complete cross-party consensus
on “need” to reduce EU immigration• EU migration key issue in EU referendum
Cameron’s “deal”• Temporary limits on EU workers’ access to in-
work benefits• Little impact on scale of immigration• Some (modest) impact on net-fiscal effects for
UK• Ending “something for nothing” (?) impact
on public opinion? • Deal will, in my view, have limited impact on
UK citizens’ votes in referendum