market view april 2016

Market View Year 2015, January – April 2016

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Value Sales Trend: Super/Hyper Markets FMCG Metrics

Super/Hyper Markets (including Key Retailers, smaller Retailers and Sklavenitis real data)

Channels

Greece Mainland

Crete Areas

YR 2015 vs YR 2014

Jan-Apr 2016 vs Jan-Apr 2015 Periods

Study ID

Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). This publication contains IRI confidential information. Unless otherwise expressly permitted in writing, this information should not be released or disclosed to other third parties.


Stores with large selling spaces (over 2500 sqm) and even broader range of products

Hypermarket

Self-service retail stores with a central check-out area and at least 2 cash registers, offering a large variety of groceries as well as consumer durables and goods

Supermarket

Self-service retail stores carrying mainly groceries in limited range with emphasis on own label products and low prices

Discounters

Channels definitions


Greece economy

RETAIL TURNOVER INDEX (w.o AUTOMOTIVE FUEL)

INFLATION RATE TREND UNEMPLOYMENT

-4 .9%

-7.1%

-5.3%

-1.8%

-0.2%

-6.4%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP

4.7%

3.3%

-0.9%-1.3%

-1.7%

1.5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

14.8%

21.0%

27.5% 26.5%25.0%

26.9%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-1.2%

-7.2%

-8.6%

-1.0% -1.0%

-11.3%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Jan/Oct

'15 vs.

Jan/Oct

'14

Source: ELSTAT Feb 2016 (latest available period/provisional data)


HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND

YR 2013YR 2014

YR 2015

YR 2013 YR 2014 YR 2015

-1.4%

-2.1%

Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM (including Key Retailers, smaller Retailers and Sklavenitis data)

In 2015 the negative sales trend is deccelarating compared to the previous years


HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND

YTD 2014 YTD 2015YTD 2016

YTD 2014 YTD 2015 YTD 2016

-1.1%

-5.7%

Overall sales in YTD are declining

Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM (including Key Retailers, smaller Retailers and Sklavenitis data), YTD: Jan-Apr 2016


TRENDS PER SHOP TYPE - YTD

Medium sized Super Markets (400-1000 sq.m.) manage to reverse the negative trend in YTD

0-400 sqm

2500+ sqm

400-1000 sqm

1000-2500 sqm

• % Value Contribution: 13,3%

• Value sales trend: -17,7%






• Value sales trend: 1,3%



LIDL VALUE SALES TREND

YTD 2014 YTD 2015YTD 2016

Column 2YTD 2014 YTD 2015 YTD 2016

1.2%

9.0%

Lidl sales are increasing in YTD

Source: IRI Lidl estimation, YTD: Jan-Apr 2016


HM/SM SALES AND PRICE TREND

Decline in consumption leads to price level upraise


-1,4 -2,1

-5,7

0,6

-2,1

-9,0

-2,0

0,2

4,0

2014 2015 YTD 2016

Value Volume Price per Volume


HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND BY MONTH

-0,4%

-3,7%

-0,6%

-7,7%

-1,4%

-2,9%

-6,9% -6,6%

-4,1%

-2,4% -3,1%

-2,6%

-4,2%

3,0%

-2,7%

-4,8%

4,1%

1,5% 1,5%

-3,3%

-3,1% -3,4% -2,7%

-2,5%

2,3%

-4,4%

3,1%

-6,3%

-0,1%

5,5%

-8,3%

-0,5%

-2,6%

-3,9% -3,6%

-7,5%

-6,0%

-8,3% -8,8%

2,0%


April was the first month with a positive growth sign after the referendum due to Easter period


HM/SM UNIT SALES TREND BY MONTH

1,9%

0,8%

3,2%

-2,5%

-0,6% 0,0%

-5,6% -6,0%

-2,3% -2,7%

-1,8% -1,6%

-3,1% -2,5%

-3,2%

0,3%

-2,6%

1,5%

3,2%

-7,2% -5,5% -5,4% -6,4% -8,5%

2,0%

-5,0%

1,4%

-7,6%

-0,8%

4,8%

-9,3%

-3,8%

-6,7%

-9,5% -7,8%

-11,6% -11,2%

-11,7%

-13,5%

-0,9%


Despite Easter period, April is slightly negative in unit sales


HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND 2015

-2,0%

-2,4%

-2,1%

FOOD

HBA

HOUSEHOLD

YTD

-6,1%

-4,2%

-3,2%

FOOD

HBA

HOUSEHOLD


All segments mark negative trends in YTD


HM/SM UNIT SALES TREND 2015

-4,4%

-3,9%

-2,4%

FOOD

HBA

HOUSEHOLD

YTD

-10,6%

-4,6%

-6,8%

FOOD

HBA

HOUSEHOLD


Food categories are driving the loss in unit sales



Frozen and packaged foods were the only categories with a positive growth

HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND 2015

-1,2%

-3,7%

-2,4%

-2,4%

1,7%

-0,3%

-4,5%

1,1%

-4,0%

-2,0%

-5,5%

HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS & DETERGENTS

OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS

PERSONAL CARE & BEAUTY

PERSONAL HYGIENE

PACKAGED FOOD

SNACKS

DAIRY

FROZEN FOOD

COOKING AIDS, INGREDIENTS & CONDIMENTS

NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES

ALCOHOL DRINKS



Packaged foods were the only categories with a positive growth

HM/SM UNIT SALES TREND 2015

-2,6%

-2,2%

-3,0%

-4,8%

0,3%

-5,5%

-5,3%

-2,4%

-7,8%

-4,3%

-7,9%




PERSONAL HYGIENE

PACKAGED FOOD

SNACKS

DAIRY

FROZEN FOOD



ALCOHOL DRINKS


HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND YTD

-2,8%

-4,0%

-1,6%

-6,7%

-5,6%

-3,6%

-9,4%

-8,7%

-2,1%

-5,1%

-9,7%




PERSONAL HYGIENE

PACKAGED FOOD

SNACKS

DAIRY

FROZEN FOOD



ALCOHOL DRINKS

Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM (including Key Retailers, smaller Retailers and Sklavenitis), YTD: Jan-Apr 2016

All categories decrease in value during the first 4 months of 2016


HM/SM UNIT SALES TREND YTD

-3,8%

-9,7%

-0,5%

-8,6%

-10,0%

-12,0%

-11,3%

-16,2%

-10,3%

-7,3%

-12,1%




PERSONAL HYGIENE

PACKAGED FOOD

SNACKS

DAIRY

FROZEN FOOD



ALCOHOL DRINKS


All categories decrease in units during the first 4 months of 2016



Winning and losing categories in YTD

CATEGORIES WITH THE BIGGEST GROWTH IN VALUE

CATEGORIES WITH THE BIGGEST DECLINE IN VALUE

• Food supplements • Iron aids and water

• Insecticides • Olives

• Seasonal chocolates • Packaged sausages

• Female razors and blades • Baby colognes

• Baby food (jars, juices, biscuits) • Sun care products

19

Evolution of Private Labels IRI InfoScan


PL losing ground for the first time in 2015, marking the lowest share in YTD ’16 since 2012

PL IN SUPER/HYPER MARKETS, 2007-2016

Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM (including Key Retailers, smaller Retailers and Sklavenitis), YTD: Jan-Apr 2016 Figures in grey brackets, indicate PL‘s value growth vs YA

5,9% 7,3%

8,6%

11,9%

16,1% 17,8% 18,3% 19,0%

18,0% 16,9%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD

7.4% 0.8% 2.3%

-7.0% -16.1%

34.5%

35.9%

19.1%

25.8%

21

Leading barcodes IRI InfoScan


No 3

• Καραμολέγκος σταρένιο φόρμα 680γρ

No 2

• Λουμίδης Παπαγάλος παραδοσιακός 200γρ

No 1 in unit

• Νερό Ζαγόρι 500ml

Leading barcodes for April ‘16 in terms of value and unit sales

No 3

• Νescafe classic 200γρ

No 2

• Νescafe classic 100γρ

No 1 in value

• Λουμίδης Παπαγάλος παραδοσιακός 200γρ

Top 3 barcodes contribute 0.88% of total FMCG value sales

Top 3 barcodes contribute 1.07% of total FMCG sales in units


23

Top manufacturers’ performance IRI InfoScan


VALUE SALES TREND 2015 AND YTD

-5,7%

-2,4% -2,9%

-12,1%

-2,5%

-6,6% -7,2%

-15,7%

-4,1%

8,0%

11,1%

-0,8%

-7,6%

-0,5%

1,0%

-8,5%

-1,4% -0,3%

-7,4%

-14,6%

1,9%

-15,1%

-4,1% -6,2%

7,8% 9,4%

TO

TAL M

ARKET

UN

ILEVER

P&

G

DELTA-B

. STATH

IS

NESTLE-P

URIN

A

CCH

BC

FRIE

SLAN

D

OLYM

PO

S

MO

ND

ELEZ

PAPAD

OPO

ULO

U

MEG

A

CO

LG

ATE-P

ALM

OLIV

E

FAG

E

ELBIS

CO

SARAN

TIS

HEN

KEL

ATH

EN

EAN

RECKIT

MIN

ERVA

BO

LTO

N

ION

SCA

TASTY

PEPSIC

O

GIO

TIS

KARAM

OLEG

OS

YTD

-2,1% -2,4% -6,8% -3,6% -2,2% -2,0% -5,4% -0,5% -1,0% 4,3% 20,5% 1,1% -10,0% 4,8% -5,8% 1,8% 1,4% -3,8% -2,4% 7,3% 1,9% -17,1% -0,6% -12,0% 5,6% 6,4%

Key manufacturers

Figures in blue indicate the trend for 2015 Source: IRI InfoScan, Ranked based on value sales 2015, YTD: Jan-Apr 2016

General Mills 2015 vs 2014 +2.7% YTD Jan – Apr +3.5%


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Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). This publication contains IRI confidential information. Unless otherwise expressly permitted in writing, this information should not be released or disclosed to other third parties.

market view april 2016

Marketing