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  • 7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 20-08-2013

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    Market OutlookAugust 20, 2013

    Dealers DiaryIndian markets are expected to open in the red today tracking negative opening

    trades in the SGX Nifty and most of the Asian markets.

    US markets extended the sharp sell-off seen in last week, during the trading

    session on Monday. The majority of the European markets also ended the trading

    session on Monday in negative territory. Investor concerns over U.S. Federal

    Reserves potential tapering of stimulus measures weighed on the investor

    sentiments. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting

    held on July 30 and 31 are slated to be released on Wednesday. Investors are

    expected to take cues regarding the Fed's action on stimulus tapering from the

    Feds commentary.

    Meanwhile, India's benchmark indexes Sensex and the Nifty fell sharply to their

    lowest level in eleven months on Monday as the rupee's decline to a fresh record

    low of `62.78/dollar in early trade sparked worries about a downgrade in the

    sovereign rating.

    Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 18,345/ 5,425 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 18,550 18,793 / 5,489 5,564 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    18,345 / 5,425 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    18,102 17,896 / 5,350 5,286 levels.

    Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 17,896 18,102 18,345 18,550 18,793

    NIFTY 5,286 5,350 5,425 5,489 5,564

    News Analysis

    Axis Bank and Andhra bank raises Benchmark lending rates by 25bp Coal India workers threaten to strike

    Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (August 16, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 4,330 4,833 (503) 921 66,319

    MFs 586 654 (68) 11 (14,335)

    FII Derivatives (August 19, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 3,376 4,592 (1,216) 13,911Stock Futures 2,616 2,296 321 27,024

    Gainers / LosersGainers Losers

    Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)JPPOWER 13 20.3 Future Retail 73 (7.9)

    Muthoot Fin 103 8.3 Adani Ports 132 (7.3)

    ADANI POWER 36 7.1 Apollo Hosp 914 (6.9)

    Tata Steel 247 5.0 United Brew-$ 672 (6.7)

    MCX 255 5.0 Aditya Birla Nuv 1,137 (6.7)

    Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex (1.6) (291) 18,308

    Nifty (1.7) (93) 5,415

    MID CAP (1.4) (76) 5,363

    SMALL CAP (1.1) (58) 5,211

    BSE HC (2.5) (224) 8,761

    BSE PSU (2.0) (106) 5,064

    BANKEX (3.4) (367) 10,433

    AUTO (3.1) (332) 10,288

    METAL 1.8 124 7,078

    OIL & GAS (1.4) (112) 8,049

    BSE IT 0.3 23 7,467

    Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones (0.5) (71) 15,011NASDAQ (0.4) (14) 3,589

    FTSE (0.5) (34) 6,466

    Nikkei 0.8 108 13,758

    Hang Sang (0.2) (54) 22,464

    Straits Times (0.8) (24) 3,173

    Shanghai Com 0.8 17 2,086

    Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (1.4) (0.7) $47.7

    WIT (0.9) (0.1) $9.3IBN (9.4) (2.8) $26.8

    HDB (4.3) (1.3) $29.3

    Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 829 395

    Declines 1,458 916

    Unchanged 142 73

    Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,845

    NSE 11,199

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    Market OutlookAugust 20, 2013

    Axis Bank and Andhra Bank raise Benchmark lending rates by

    25bp

    Axis bank and Andhra Bank have revised their benchmark lending rates by 25bp

    to 10.25% and 10.50%, respectively. Recent liquidity tightening measures has

    exposed banks (more particularly the wholesale funded ones) to increased fundingcosts and thereby putting pressures on the margins. Earlier Yes Bank and HDFC

    Bank have also raised their base rates by 25bp and 20bp, respectively. We believe

    that as liquidity tightening measures are likely to remain over the next 1-2 months,

    transmission of higher-than-anticipated interest rates into broader segments can

    be expected, as other banks might also follow these banks.

    Coal India workers threaten to strike

    All five unions of Coal India have declared a three-day strike from September 23,

    2013, to protest against the 5% divestment in Coal India by the government. Thisis likely to be followed by an indefinite strike if the government does not initiate

    steps for settlement of their demands by September 22. The unions are also

    protesting the government's indifference to address a set of 25 additional

    demands. The strike is expected to cause production loss of approximately 3mn

    tonnes. Meanwhile, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

    Economic and Political News

    Finance Minister lays down action plan to revive economy Finance Minister dismisses talk of seeking credit from IMF Goa government mulling possibility of lifting suspension on mining Government bans duty free TV imports

    Corporate News

    Compensatory rate rise for Tata UMPP has riders Vedanta's Niyamgiri plan stuck as last gram sabha gives thumbs down Dena bank raises FCNR deposit rates by 100bp for maturity of 3-5yrs ICICI Bank's UK, Canada arms to keep on repatriating capitalSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    August 29, 2013 Mphasis

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    August 21, 2013 7:30PM US Existing home sales Million Jul 5.08 5.12

    August 22, 2013 1:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Aug A 51.30 --

    1:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Aug A 50.70 --

    August 23, 2013 7:30PM Euro ZoneEuro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Aug A (17.40) --

    7:30PM US New home sales Thousands Jul 497.00 490.00

    2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q P 1.40 --

    August 27, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Aug 80.30 --

    August 29, 2013 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q S 1.70 --

    1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Aug (7.00) --August 30, 2013 5:30PM India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change 2Q 4.80 --

    September 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 50.30 --

    September 2, 2013 2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 54.60 --

    September 5, 2013 4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Sep 5 0.50 0.50

    5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Sep 5 0.50 --

    September 6, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul 1.20 --

    6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Aug 162.00 --

    6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Aug 7.40 --

    September 8, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Aug 5.10 --

    September 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Aug 2.70 --

    September 10, 2013 4:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Aug (6.20) --

    4:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Aug 11.64 --

    11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Aug 9.70 --

    September 12, 2013 5:30PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jul (2.20) --

    September 17, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Aug 2.80 --

    September 18, 2013 11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Sep 18 0.25 --

    11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Sep 18 7.25 --

    11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Sep 18 4.00 --

    11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Sep 18 6.25 --

    October 18, 2013 7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q 7.50 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    August 20, 2013

    Market Outlook

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    Market OutlookAugust 20, 2013

    www.angelbroking.com

    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1:Q uarterly G DP trends

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:IIP trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3:M onthly WPI inflation trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

    Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 ind icates expansion

    Exhibit 5:Exports and imp orts growth trends

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    9.3

    7.7

    11.4

    9.5

    8.69.2

    9.9

    7.5

    6.56.0

    5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    (%)

    (0.1)

    2.0

    (0.7)

    8.4

    (1.0) (0.6)

    2.5

    0.6

    3.5

    1.9

    (2.8)(2.2)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    (%)

    8.17.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

    5.7

    4.8 4.6 4.9

    5.8

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    Jul-13

    (%)

    46.0

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    Jul-13

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    (15.0)

    (12.0)

    (9.0)

    (6.0)

    (3.0)

    0.0

    3.0

    6.0

    9.0

    12.0

    15.0

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    Ma-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    Jul-13

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Aug-12

    Sep-12

    Oct-12

    Oct-12

    Nov-12

    Dec-12

    Dec-12

    Jan-13

    Feb-13

    Feb-13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    Apr-13

    Ma-13

    Jun-13

    Jun-13

    Jul-13

    Aug-13

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 140 - 2,715 1,674 1,923 13.7 13.7 6.8 7.6 20.5 18.4 3.9 3.4 20.0 19.6 1.8 1.6

    United Phosphorus Buy 148 225 6,553 10,091 11,302 16.5 16.5 19.2 22.5 7.7 6.6 1.2 1.1 17.0 17.2 0.8 0.6

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Buy 258 305 4,415 3,474 3,952 15.5 15.5 19.0 21.0 13.6 12.3 3.3 2.7 27.2 24.2 1.3 1.1

    Apollo Tyres Neutral 63 - 3,178 13,409 15,106 11.8 11.6 13.1 15.4 4.8 4.1 0.8 0.7 17.9 17.8 0.4 0.3

    Ashok Leyland Buy 13 18 3,411 13,450 15,853 6.5 8.5 0.4 1.9 33.5 6.9 1.1 1.0 2.3 11.0 0.4 0.3

    Automotive Axle# Neutral 206 - 311 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 11.9 7.6 1.1 1.0 9.5 14.0 0.4 0.4Bajaj Auto Buy 1,762 2,102 50,995 21,696 25,239 19.2 19.3 119.3 140.2 14.8 12.6 5.2 4.1 38.9 36.6 1.9 1.6

    Bharat Forge Buy 221 256 5,142 5,942 6,417 15.2 15.5 15.6 19.7 14.1 11.2 2.1 1.8 15.4 17.3 1.1 0.9

    Bosch India* Accumulate 8,267 9,096 25,957 9,301 10,895 16.8 18.0 339.9 423.1 24.3 19.5 4.0 3.5 16.6 17.6 2.4 2.0

    CEAT Buy 115 170 393 5,159 5,628 9.3 9.0 43.5 48.6 2.6 2.4 0.5 0.4 18.4 17.5 0.2 0.2

    Exide Industries Buy 128 148 10,884 6,899 7,873 14.7 14.7 7.9 9.0 16.2 14.2 2.8 2.4 18.3 18.0 1.3 1.1

    FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,151 - 1,912 1,336 1,572 13.8 16.0 75.6 102.4 15.2 11.2 1.9 1.7 13.4 15.8 1.2 1.0

    Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,926 2,048 38,468 25,562 28,297 14.5 14.4 111.2 146.3 17.3 13.2 6.3 4.9 40.1 42.1 1.3 1.1

    JK Tyre Buy 92 154 379 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 2.5 2.1 0.4 0.3 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 811 1,011 4 9,924 42,318 48,067 12.0 12.2 58.5 67.1 13.9 12.1 2.8 2.4 21.6 21.1 0.9 0.8

    Maruti Buy 1,309 1,648 39,544 45,862 52,647 11.2 11.1 94.6 109.9 13.8 11.9 1.9 1.6 14.4 14.6 0.7 0.6

    Motherson Sumi Accumulate 229 242 13,433 28,442 31,914 8.4 8.7 13.0 16.1 17.6 14.2 4.6 3.6 29.4 28.6 0.6 0.5

    Subros Buy 19 23 114 1,230 1,398 10.5 10.5 2.3 3.8 8.2 5.0 0.4 0.4 4.8 7.6 0.3 0.3

    Tata Motors Buy 302 355 81,253 215,043 240,077 13.5 13.7 38.7 44.1 7.8 6.8 2.0 1.5 28.5 25.1 0.4 0.4

    TVS Motor Buy 30 36 1,423 7,659 8,528 6.0 6.2 4.9 5.9 6.1 5.0 1.0 0.9 17.8 19.0 0.1 0.1

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Reduce 470 442 9,950 8,037 9,087 5.8 6.9 12.2 17.0 38.5 27.6 3.7 3.6 9.8 13.1 1.2 1.0BGR Energy Neutral 96 - 692 3,541 4,041 11.8 10.7 21.1 22.9 4.6 4.2 0.5 0.5 21.8 19.5 0.5 0.4

    BHEL Neutral 103 - 25,296 43,140 39,692 16.8 15.9 20.2 17.1 5.1 6.0 1.1 1.0 23.1 17.2 0.4 0.5

    Blue Star Buy 139 208 1,247 2,941 3,099 3.4 4.2 6.0 9.3 23.2 14.9 2.9 2.5 12.9 18.0 0.5 0.5

    Crompton Greaves Buy 83 103 5,318 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 12.5 9.3 1.4 1.2 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.5

    Jyoti Structures Neutral 17 - 136 3,312 3,555 9.0 9.0 4.5 6.5 3.7 2.6 0.2 0.2 5.6 7.7 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 25 36 630 7,709 8,399 6.2 6.9 5.1 8.1 4.8 3.0 0.5 0.4 16.6 21.5 0.3 0.2

    Thermax Neutral 586 - 6,984 5,832 6,397 9.1 9.6 28.8 32.9 20.4 17.8 3.3 2.9 17.2 17.3 1.1 1.0

    Cement

    ACC Buy 1,127 1,361 21,165 11,581 13,009 17.6 19.3 63.9 81.5 17.6 13.8 2.6 2.4 15.6 18.2 1.5 1.3

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    August 20, 2013

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Financials

    HDFC Accumulate 735 824 114,330 8,679 10,350 3.6 3.6 37.5 44.7 19.6 16.5 4.1 3.7 30.1 30.7 - -

    HDFC Bank Buy 584 724 139,539 27,392 33,264 4.6 4.6 36.3 45.1 16.1 13.0 3.3 2.7 21.9 22.8 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 815 1,038 94,086 25,727 29,969 3.2 3.2 83.2 96.7 9.8 8.4 1.3 1.2 14.9 15.4 - -

    IDBI Bank Accumulate 56 61 7,477 9,518 10,468 2.0 2.0 15.5 22.1 3.6 2.5 0.4 0.3 10.2 13.3 - -

    Indian Bank Neutral 70 - 3,013 5,940 6,396 2.7 2.7 24.9 32.9 2.8 2.1 0.3 0.3 10.3 12.4 - -

    IOB Accumulate 39 41 3,581 7,692 8,627 2.2 2.3 8.1 15.2 4.8 2.6 0.3 0.3 5.9 10.5 - -

    J & K Bank Neutral 1,071 - 5,190 3,038 3,370 3.7 3.9 214.2 202.6 5.0 5.3 0.9 0.8 19.8 16.3 - -LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 162 177 8,173 2,180 2,732 2.4 2.5 26.3 32.1 6.2 5.0 1.1 1.0 19.0 19.9 - -

    Oriental Bank Accumulate 129 147 3,764 6,918 7,459 2.6 2.5 46.7 52.5 2.8 2.5 0.3 0.3 10.8 11.1 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 480 546 16,961 20,766 23,515 3.4 3.4 135.0 164.8 3.6 2.9 0.6 0.5 14.4 15.7 - -

    South Ind.Bank Neutral 20 - 2,687 1,800 2,023 2.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 5.4 4.8 0.9 0.8 16.2 16.2 - -

    St Bk of India Neutral 1,530 - 104,685 65,392 74,467 3.0 3.0 192.5 240.5 8.0 6.4 1.1 0.9 13.1 14.7 - -

    Syndicate Bank Accumulate 64 73 3,855 6,740 7,512 2.5 2.5 21.0 23.5 3.1 2.7 0.4 0.3 12.6 12.8 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 52 - 3,917 6,770 7,017 2.8 2.6 14.8 15.5 3.5 3.4 0.6 0.5 14.4 13.5 - -

    Union Bank Accumulate 109 119 6,502 10,458 11,809 2.5 2.5 32.0 40.6 3.4 2.7 0.4 0.4 11.6 13.4 - -

    United Bank Accumulate 35 37 1,302 3,386 3,884 2.3 2.5 12.4 20.0 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.3 10.0 14.7 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 35 - 1,752 2,718 2,941 1.8 1.9 7.0 9.0 5.0 4.0 0.4 0.4 8.2 9.8 - -

    Yes Bank Buy 241 298 8,693 4,417 5,486 2.7 2.8 42.9 49.5 5.6 4.9 1.2 1.0 23.9 22.8 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 427 - 40,939 12,332 14,524 16.3 16.1 13.9 16.0 30.7 26.6 9.8 7.8 35.2 32.5 3.2 2.7

    Britannia Neutral 728 - 8,726 6,422 7,367 6.9 7.3 24.2 29.7 30.1 24.6 10.6 8.2 39.6 37.7 1.4 1.1

    Colgate Neutral 1,285 - 17,480 3,588 4,130 18.9 19.4 41.2 48.4 31.2 26.6 27.7 21.5 100.0 91.0 4.7 4.0

    Dabur India Neutral 162 - 28,325 7,183 8,297 16.8 16.9 5.4 6.3 30.4 25.8 10.7 8.5 39.2 36.7 4.0 3.4

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 4,032 - 16,956 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 33.0 27.1 10.3 8.3 34.1 33.7 4.2 3.5

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 825 - 28,069 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 32.8 27.8 7.1 5.9 24.9 24.2 3.7 3.2

    HUL Neutral 589 - 127,319 28,415 31,962 13.6 14.1 16.7 18.2 35.3 32.4 33.9 24.6 112.2 88.1 4.3 3.8

    ITC Neutral 314 - 248,703 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 27.9 23.6 9.2 7.4 36.1 34.9 6.9 5.9

    Marico Neutral 211 - 13,632 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 29.1 24.4 5.7 4.7 21.4 21.0 2.6 2.3

    Nestle* Neutral 4,935 - 47,577 9,330 10,860 21.8 21.9 123.3 149.7 40.0 33.0 19.7 14.4 56.4 50.3 5.1 4.3

    Tata Global Neutral 142 - 8,760 8,070 8,958 9.8 9.9 7.6 8.5 18.7 16.7 2.2 2.1 9.3 9.7 1.1 0.9

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    August 20, 2013

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Accumulate 929 1,012 64,711 30,698 33,933 22.1 21.5 65.3 69.8 14.2 13.3 3.6 2.9 26.5 23.0 1.9 1.6

    Hexaware* Neutral 124 - 3,706 2,213 2,479 21.5 20.5 12.1 12.9 10.2 9.6 2.5 2.2 25.4 23.5 1.5 1.3

    Infosys Neutral 3,005 - 172,584 47,001 51,196 26.2 26.4 171.3 189.4 17.6 15.9 3.6 3.1 20.4 19.3 3.0 2.6

    Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 175 190 1,953 2,052 2,263 17.2 17.6 20.7 22.5 8.5 7.8 1.3 1.1 14.9 14.0 0.6 0.5

    KPIT Cummins Accumulate 133 145 2,576 2,670 3,018 17.3 16.7 14.1 15.3 9.4 8.7 1.8 1.5 20.9 18.4 0.9 0.7

    Mindtree Accumulate 986 1,050 4,099 2,768 3,006 19.7 19.9 103.1 105.3 9.6 9.4 2.3 1.9 24.8 20.3 1.2 1.0

    Mphasis& Neutral 382 - 8,026 6,372 6,852 18.0 18.2 38.0 43.5 10.1 8.8 1.4 1.3 14.3 14.2 0.8 0.6NIIT Neutral 18 - 298 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 4.2 3.4 0.4 0.4 10.3 12.0 0.1 -

    Persistent Neutral 556 - 2,225 1,533 1,715 22.2 22.5 49.2 56.8 11.3 9.8 1.9 1.6 16.4 16.1 1.1 0.8

    TCS Buy 1,778 2,060 347,974 79,005 91,576 29.7 30.0 88.6 103.1 20.1 17.2 6.3 5.0 31.5 29.2 4.2 3.5

    Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,294 1,470 30,054 17,230 18,921 21.8 20.3 108.9 109.0 11.9 11.9 3.3 2.6 27.9 22.1 1.5 1.2

    Wipro Neutral 456 - 112,338 42,196 45,890 21.0 21.6 28.3 31.2 16.1 14.6 3.4 2.9 20.7 19.4 2.2 1.9

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 243 302 4,461 1,783 1,968 25.2 26.8 14.6 17.2 16.7 14.1 4.3 3.7 23.9 24.2 2.4 2.1

    HT Media Buy 95 117 2,227 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.3 11.4 10.2 1.4 1.3 11.6 11.6 0.7 0.5

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 86 116 2,866 1,683 1,845 22.3 23.7 6.5 7.8 13.2 11.1 2.7 2.4 21.3 23.1 1.8 1.6

    PVR Neutral 365 - 1,449 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 21.2 16.9 2.1 2.0 10.3 12.0 1.5 1.3

    Sun TV Network Neutral 382 - 15,036 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 19.1 16.4 4.7 4.1 26.4 27.3 6.2 5.5

    Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Reduce 449 419 10,160 12,640 15,667 28.5 31.5 25.9 38.6 17.3 11.6 1.0 0.9 6.1 8.5 2.6 2.1

    Coal India Neutral 257 - 162,425 70,158 74,443 29.8 30.2 25.2 27.1 10.2 9.5 2.5 2.1 33.3 33.1 1.5 1.4

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 10 15 340 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 0.1 1.2 163.1 8.6 0.1 - 0.1 1.9 0.6 0.1

    GMDC Buy 82 115 2,606 1,701 1,985 47.8 48.8 17.4 20.6 4.7 4.0 0.9 0.8 20.7 20.9 1.1 0.7Hind. Zinc Accumulate 105 120 44,366 12,389 13,093 48.5 51.7 15.2 17.0 6.9 6.2 1.2 1.0 18.5 18.0 1.4 1.0

    Hindalco Neutral 96 - 18,380 95,465 99,226 8.4 8.8 13.9 15.8 6.9 6.1 0.5 0.5 7.6 8.0 0.6 0.5

    JSW Steel Neutral 499 - 12,063 44,605 47,040 15.7 16.0 62.5 75.6 8.0 6.6 0.7 0.6 8.5 9.6 0.8 0.7

    MOIL Accumulate 198 223 3,327 956 982 42.3 44.3 25.3 26.2 7.8 7.6 1.1 1.0 14.6 13.7 0.8 0.9

    Monnet Ispat Buy 96 125 609 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 2.9 2.2 0.2 0.2 8.3 9.9 1.3 1.0

    Nalco Neutral 27 - 6,881 7,074 7,228 13.1 13.1 2.6 2.7 10.2 10.0 0.6 0.6 5.6 5.5 0.4 0.4

    NMDC Accumulate 110 123 43,691 10,718 11,514 66.6 64.5 15.5 16.1 7.1 6.8 1.4 1.3 21.2 20.0 2.0 1.8

    SAIL Neutral 41 - 16,933 44,060 54,227 9.2 10.9 5.3 6.8 7.7 6.0 0.4 0.4 5.2 6.5 0.6 0.6

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Metals & Mining

    Sesa Goa Buy 130 155 11,294 3,817 5,781 12.1 17.7 27.0 29.6 4.8 4.4 0.6 0.5 12.9 12.5 3.8 2.5

    Sterlite Inds Buy 76 92 25,440 44,493 45,599 22.4 23.9 16.8 19.2 4.5 3.9 0.5 0.4 10.5 10.9 0.5 0.5

    Tata Steel Buy 247 313 23,974 150,121 160,679 10.1 10.8 38.2 52.6 6.5 4.7 0.6 0.6 10.4 12.9 0.5 0.5

    Sarda Buy 78 98 278 1,323 1,398 17.2 17.9 25.3 27.8 3.1 2.8 0.3 0.3 9.5 9.6 0.6 0.5

    Prakash Industries Buy 29 37 387 2,486 2,637 15.2 15.0 13.7 14.2 2.1 2.0 0.2 0.2 9.1 8.7 0.4 0.3

    Godawari Power andIspat

    Buy 66 78 216 2,171 2,317 14.9 15.8 36.4 46.6 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.2 11.6 13.0 0.5 0.4

    Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Buy 303 364 57,877 18,403 17,925 71.9 62.1 62.1 57.4 4.9 5.3 1.0 0.9 22.6 17.8 1.9 1.7

    GAIL Neutral 299 - 37,959 49,700 48,822 16.0 16.6 32.9 33.4 9.1 9.0 1.4 1.2 15.9 14.4 0.3 0.2

    ONGC Buy 262 352 223,940 169,963 196,050 35.3 36.6 33.4 38.7 7.8 6.8 1.3 1.2 17.7 18.2 1.0 0.8

    Reliance Industries Neutral 819 - 264,581 397,546 421,695 8.9 8.7 72.3 76.8 11.3 10.7 1.2 1.1 12.3 11.8 0.7 0.6

    Gujarat Gas* Neutral 203 - 2,607 3,270 3,414 12.8 12.6 22.6 23.1 9.0 8.8 2.4 2.1 28.2 25.6 0.7 0.5

    Indraprastha Gas Neutral 263 - 3,679 3,656 4,456 21.5 18.6 25.7 26.8 10.2 9.8 2.1 1.8 22.1 19.6 1.0 0.8

    Petronet LNG Accumulate 122 135 9,128 39,449 43,315 5.3 5.9 14.1 16.9 8.6 7.2 1.7 1.5 21.7 21.9 0.3 0.3

    Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

    Buy 54 67 3,064 1,002 1,021 91.4 91.5 8.2 8.4 6.7 6.5 0.9 0.8 14.3 13.0 2.5 2.4

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Buy 139 165 2,612 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 13.0 10.0 4.1 3.1 35.0 34.7 1.6 1.3

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 184 276 5,350 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 10.6 8.9 1.7 1.4 19.5 18.9 1.3 1.1

    Aventis* Neutral 2,395 - 5,516 1,682 1,917 15.6 15.6 91.9 101.7 26.1 23.6 3.7 3.6 15.6 17.1 2.8 2.2

    Cadila Healthcare Buy 663 894 13,577 7,123 8,367 15.5 15.7 37.3 44.7 17.8 14.8 3.7 3.1 22.9 22.9 2.2 1.9

    Cipla Buy 400 477 32,149 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 19.1 16.8 3.1 2.6 17.2 16.8 3.2 2.7

    Dr Reddy's Buy 2,141 2,535 36,394 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.1 126.6 19.1 16.9 4.1 3.4 23.5 21.8 2.8 2.4

    Dishman Pharma Buy 46 73 367 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 14.8 16.6 3.1 2.7 0.3 0.3 10.8 11.0 0.9 0.8

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,245 - 19,013 2,744 2,964 22.0 23.4 59.2 66.6 37.9 33.7 9.4 9.1 24.9 27.5 6.1 5.6

    Indoco Remedies Buy 61 78 563 747 906 15.3 15.3 5.9 7.6 10.4 8.0 1.2 1.1 12.5 14.4 1.0 0.8

    Ipca labs Neutral 645 - 8,140 3,246 3,830 20.5 21.7 36.2 44.9 17.8 14.4 4.2 3.3 26.1 25.7 2.7 2.2

    Lupin Accumulate 794 904 35,556 11,576 13,855 22.0 22.0 35.8 43.0 22.2 18.5 5.4 4.3 27.1 25.8 3.1 2.6

    Ranbaxy* Accumulate 381 426 16,102 10,400 11,331 6.6 8.4 11.4 15.2 33.4 25.0 3.5 3.1 11.1 13.1 1.6 1.5

    Sun Pharma Neutral 520 - 107,708 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 16.5 19.9 31.5 26.1 6.4 5.3 22.0 22.0 7.4 6.1

    Power

    GIPCL Accumulate 57 65 862 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 4.2 3.9 0.5 0.4 12.3 12.0 0.7 0.4

    NTPC Buy 137 163 112,633 75,046 81,780 23.5 23.9 12.7 13.6 10.8 10.1 1.3 1.2 12.2 12.0 2.2 2.2

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Real Estate

    DLF Buy 148 179 26,431 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 26.0 22.0 0.9 0.9 3.7 4.1 5.3 4.4

    MLIFE Accumulate 437 483 1,784 888 1,002 27.0 29.9 33.9 42.1 12.9 10.4 1.3 1.2 9.9 11.2 2.6 2.3

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Accumulate 317 350 126,857 83,535 92,173 32.0 33.1 9.2 12.9 34.6 24.6 2.3 2.1 6.8 8.9 2.2 1.9

    Idea Cellular Neutral 167 - 55,380 26,717 29,443 30.6 29.8 5.5 6.7 30.7 24.8 3.4 3.0 11.1 12.0 2.4 2.1

    Rcom Neutral 120 - 24,727 22,050 23,647 30.6 30.8 3.2 5.2 37.5 23.0 0.7 0.7 1.9 3.1 2.8 2.5

    OthersAbbott India* Buy 1,340 1,628 2,848 1,788 1,996 12.5 12.7 71.7 81.4 18.7 16.5 3.8 3.2 21.7 21.2 1.4 1.2

    Bajaj Electricals Accumulate 161 184 1,603 3,885 4,472 4.0 5.8 6.8 15.4 23.8 10.5 2.1 1.8 8.8 17.3 0.4 0.4

    Cera Sanitaryware Buy 508 613 643 631 797 14.5 13.7 42.6 51.1 11.9 9.9 2.8 2.3 26.5 25.3 1.0 0.8

    Cravatex Buy 255 307 66 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 9.4 6.7 1.5 1.2 15.7 18.5 0.4 0.4

    Finolex Cables Buy 53 68 806 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 5.2 4.7 0.8 0.6 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2

    Force Motors Buy 279 349 364 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 10.0 6.4 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

    Goodyear India* Accumulate 307 345 707 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 9.5 8.3 1.7 1.5 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.3

    Hitachi Buy 103 153 279 1,080 1,199 8.9 9.1 18.3 19.1 5.6 5.4 1.0 0.8 19.2 17.0 0.4 0.3

    Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,323 - 2,053 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 111.1 130.9 20.9 17.7 2.6 2.3 13.3 13.9 1.0 0.9

    IFB Agro Accumulate 144 156 129 491 642 12.3 13.8 35.0 50.9 4.1 2.8 0.7 0.6 18.2 21.6 0.2 0.1

    ITD Cementation Buy 156 194 180 1,365 1,502 10.9 11.2 18.2 28.0 8.6 5.6 0.4 0.4 5.1 7.4 0.6 0.5

    Jyothy Laboratories Buy 161 199 2,680 1,244 1,523 14.1 14.2 5.9 10.0 27.3 16.2 3.3 2.9 12.7 18.8 2.5 2.0

    MRF Buy 13,102 16,218 5,557 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0 7.3 7.3 1.5 1.3 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.5

    Page Industries Accumulate 4,262 4,669 4,754 1,059 1,296 19.5 19.8 125.0 155.6 34.1 27.4 16.9 12.4 56.3 52.2 4.6 3.7

    Relaxo Footwears Buy 716 981 860 1,196 1,401 11.9 12.6 55.6 75.4 12.9 9.5 3.1 2.4 27.1 28.1 0.9 0.7

    Siyaram Silk Mills Accumulate 205 228 192 1,158 1,322 10.6 11.0 60.5 75.9 3.4 2.7 0.5 0.5 16.8 18.1 0.4 0.3Styrolution ABS India* Buy 348 492 612 1,007 1,108 8.4 8.7 30.3 35.1 11.5 9.9 1.3 1.2 11.7 12.2 0.6 0.5

    TAJ GVK Buy 56 108 352 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.1 6.2 0.9 0.8 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.2

    Tata Sponge Iron Buy 251 371 386 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 3.9 3.6 0.5 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 (0.1)

    TTK Healthcare Buy 501 632 389 416 481 4.5 6.1 16.2 25.3 30.9 19.8 3.8 3.4 12.6 18.1 0.8 0.7

    Tree House Accumulate 259 297 930 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 20.9 16.5 2.5 2.2 11.8 13.1 6.3 4.8

    TVS Srichakra Buy 168 230 129 1,591 1,720 6.1 6.4 30.5 38.3 5.5 4.4 0.7 0.7 13.5 15.5 0.3 0.2

    United Spirits Neutral 2,183 - 31,724 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 51.9 32.2 3.7 3.3 9.1 10.7 2.9 2.5

    Vesuvius India* Buy 354 439 719 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 9.9 9.7 1.8 1.5 19.4 17.1 1.0 0.9

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Others

    HSIL Buy 85 117 563 2,042 2,363 14.6 14.8 12.3 16.5 6.9 5.2 0.5 0.5 7.6 9.4 0.7 0.6

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 19, 2013

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    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Market OutlookAugust 20, 2013