market outlook, 13-08-2013

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Market Outlook August 13, 2013

Dealers Diary Indian markets are expected to open flat to positive tracking SGX Nifty and positivestart to most of the Asian markets.

The US markets ended on a mixed note as stocks showed a lack of directionthroughout the trading day on Monday. Uncertainty about the outlook for theFederal Reserve's stimulus program also contributed to the choppy trading on WallStreet. While recent comments from Fed officials have suggested that the centralbank could begin scaling back its asset purchases as early as its Septembermeeting, the slew of economic data due to be released in the coming days couldhave a significant impact on the outlook for the program. The lacklusterperformance also came amid a relatively quiet day in terms of corporate news, asthe earnings season is winding down.

Meanwhile, Indian markets rose for a second consecutive session on Monday,helped by encouraging export data and amid expectations that the government willannounce a slew of measures to contain rupee depreciation and help narrow thecurrent account deficit. Going ahead, traders are likely to keep a close eye on US

retail sales data which is scheduled to release today.Markets Today The trend deciding level for the day is 18,937/ 5,605 levels. If NIFTY trades abovethis level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19,077 19,208 / 5,652 5,692 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below18,937/ 5,605 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to18,806 18,666 / 5,565 5,518 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2

SENSEX 18,666 18,806 18,937 19,077 19,208NIFTY 5,518 5,565 5,605 5,652 5,692

News Analysis More steps to halt INR depreciation IIP surprises negatively; CPI inflation moderates to 9.6% in July -13 Respite on trade deficit continues JLR registers strong growth in retail volumes in July 2013 Sesa Goa- Sterlite Industries get Bombay High Court approval for merger L&T has bagged various orders worth ` 4,160cr Hindalcos subsidiary Novelis reports 1QFY2014 results Result Review: ONGC, SBI, Tech Mahindra, DLF, Marico, Britannia,

Indraprastha Gas, JLL, India Cements, United Bank, Sarda Energy Result Preview: M&M, Tata Steel, Hindalco, Sadbhav Engineering, IVRCL

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (August 8, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 2,887 3,226 (339) 637 66,035MFs 838 569 269 (370) (14,716)

FII Derivatives (August 12, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 2,037 2,138 (101) 11,213Stock Futures 2,259 1,911 348 26,976

Gainers / LosersGainers Losers

Company Price ( ` ) chg (%) Company Price ( ` ) chg (%)Muthoot Fin 96 20.0 MCX 281 (5.0)

Torrent Power 83 20.0 Financial Tech 170 (4.5)

Aurobindo Phar 181 12.2 SBI 1,605 (3.4)

Jindal Steel 227 9.4 Tata Chemicals 247 (3.4)

Tata Steel 237 8.3 Tata Power 75 (3.3)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

BSE Sensex 0.8 158 18,947

Nifty 0.8 47 5,612

MID CAP 1.5 83 5,492SMALL CAP 1.6 82 5,316

BSE HC 2.0 176 8,985

BSE PSU 1.3 70 5,285

BANKEX (1.1) (120) 11,084

AUTO 0.7 74 10,290

METAL 4.5 310 7,166

OIL & GAS (0.5) (42) 8,302

BSE IT 0.6 45 7,513

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

Dow Jones (0.0) (6) 15,420NASDAQ 0.3 10 3,670

FTSE (0.1) (9) 6,574

Nikkei (0.7) (96) 13,519

Hang Sang 2.1 464 22,271

Straits Times 0.1 2 3,232

Shanghai Com 2.4 49 2,101

Indian AD R Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

INFY 0.0 0.0 $49.5

WIT 1.4 0.1 $9.2IBN (0.9) (0.3) $31.2

HDB (0.9) (0.3) $31.2

Advances / Declines BSE NSE

Advances 1,438 921

Declines 822 411

Unchanged 122 70

Volumes ( ` cr)

BSE 1,681NSE 11,146

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More steps to halt INR depreciation

The Finance Minister has committed to reducing the current account deficit atUSD70bn or 3.7% of GDP for FY2014. In addition, to attract foreign inflows in theeconomy the FM has announced that public sector financial institutions would be

allowed to raise quasi-sovereign bonds to finance long-term infrastructure needs. Also, PSU oil companies would be allowed to raise funds through ExternalCommercial Borrowings (ECBs) and trade finance. PFC, IIFCL and IRFC areexpected to raise money to the tune of USD4bn through quasi sovereign bonds.

The RBI on its part has taken a number of steps to tackle liquidity and thereby raised yields on the short end of the curve. This is expected to curb speculativeattack on the currency and attract FII investors to the debt market.

We believe that these new steps announced are likely to be sentimentally positivefor the INR. The current account deficit is likely to moderate on account of lowergold imports and on account of the depreciation, import substitution of cheapermanufactured goods from abroad may also ensue.

IIP surprises negatively, declines 2.2%

As per Quick Estimates on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), industrial growthin June 2013 declined by 2.2% in contrast with market expectations of 1.2% de-growth. The production data continues to reflect weakness on the demand-sidefrom investment as well as consumption. The index for May 2013 has been reviseddownwards considerably by 120bp owing mainly to revision in manufacturingproduction. Consequently, IIP growth for May 2013 has been revised to a declineof 2.8% as compared to 1.6% de-growth reported earlier. The IIP growth for1QFY2014 has declined by a sharper 1.1% on the back of a 0.3% decline in thecorresponding period of FY2013 and 2.2% growth in 4QFY2013. We believe thata sustainable recovery still looks far and expect a modest pick-up in growth in2HFY2014.

Performance on Sector-wise classification

In terms of sector-wise classification, electricity production remained flat butdecline in production in mining and manufacturing sectors weighed on overalloutput. The Mining sector continued to contract for the ninth consecutive monthand reported a 4.1% decline in June 2013 as against a 1.1% contraction in thecorresponding period of the previous year. The Manufacturing sector reported adecline for the second straight month and came in at 2.2%.

Performance in the Use-based category

As per the use-based classification, Consumer Durables continued to weigh heavily on the overall IIP. The decline of 2.3% in Consumer Goods production can beattributed to the sharp 10.5% contraction in Consumer Durables. Growth inconsumer non-durables picked up to 5% as compared to 0.5% contraction in June2013. The Capital Goods index posted a 6.6% decline despite a low base since ithad contracted by almost 28% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

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CPI inflation moderates to 9.6% in July 2013

In line with expectations of a further moderation in CPI inflation, the combined(rural + urban) inflation for July 2013 moderated to 9.6% from 9.9% in June2013. Inflation in food articles in the CPI (accounting for almost 50% weightage in

the index) has moderated as expected to 11% from 11.7% in the previous month.Fuel inflation also decelerated to 8.4% during July 2013 as against 8.6% in theprevious month. Core (non-food, non-fuel) CPI inflation has also positively trendeddown to 8.0% in as against a slightly higher 8.2% in the previous month. Goingahead, we are positive on the trajectory for food inflation owing to the decent rabi production, pick-up in sowing of kharif crops and reasonable MSP hikesannounced by the government for the kharif crops and this is likely to keepheadline CPI inflation in check.

Respite on trade deficit continuesProvisional data released by the commerce ministry shows that Indias trade deficitfor July 2013 narrowed to USD12.3bn as compared to USD17.5bn in July 2012and at similar level of USD12.2bn in the previous month. Exports witnessed asharp recovery by reporting 11.6% growth, the highest level in 18 months, on theback of a 6.1% decline in July 2012. We believe that the sharp INR depreciationand low base support improvement in export growth going ahead as the externaldemand scenario also improves.

Imports reported 6.2% yoy decline during the month as compared to 0.4% de-growth in June 2013 owing to compression in both oil and non-oil imports. Goldimports soared in the month of April and May of 2013 coming in at an average ofUSD 7.3bn in each of the 2 months but as expected gold imports moderatedduring June 2013 to less than USD 2bn.

The trade deficit for April July of 2013-14 is estimated at USD 62.4bn, higherthan the deficit of USD 59.6bn during April July of 2012-13.

Trade deficit for July 2013

Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13

Trade balance (12.3) (12.2) (20.1) (18.3) (9.8) (15.5)Exports 25.8 23.8 24.5 23.7 30.7 25.8Imports 38.1 36.0 44.6 41.9 40.5 41.3GrowthExport 11.6 (4.6) (1.1) (0.5) 6.6 2.3Import (6.2) (0.4) 7.0 11.0 (4.3) 2.8Non oil (5.3) (6.7) 9.1 14.7 2.8 (3.4)Oil (8.0) 13.7 3.0 4.3 (16.1) 15.7

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L&T has bagged various orders worth ` 4,160cr

Larsen & Toubro has bagged various orders worth ` 2,319cr from reputed clientsacross the country in the Building & Factories segment. This includes a major orderfor construction of residential towers in Delhi and Chennai. In the powerTransmission and Distribution segment the company has bagged various ordersworth ` 974cr which includes major turnkey order from Madhyanchal Vidyut VitranNigam ltd for various rural electrification works under Rajiv Gandhi Grameen

Vidyutikaran Yojna (RGGVY) phase-II in Barabanki and Lakhimpur District. Also,the company has bagged various orders worth ` 735cr in the water and renewableenergy business. A major order has been received from Public Health EngineeringDepartment, Rajasthan for regional water supply schemes. The scope includesturnkey construction of water supply network for 256 villages and five towns underthe Ratangarh-Sujangarh water supply project. We continue to maintain Buy rating

on the stock with a target price of`1,002.

JLR registers strong growth in retail volumes in July 2013

Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) registered a strong retail volume growth of 25.3% yoy to 31,611 units in July 2013, which was ahead of our expectations, driven by thestrong performance of the newly launched models. The volume growth ex. Evoque too remained robust (up 25.3% yoy) and was driven by the Jaguar and Discover and Freelander models. Overall volume growth however, was impacted due to the30.2% yoy decline in Range Rover Sport model ahead of the introduction of the all

new model. Geographically, the volume momentum was strong across the world(except Europe) with Asia Pacific, China, North America and Rest of the Worldwitnessing a strong growth of 42.7%, 36.3%, 31.1% and 29.1% yoy respectively.

Jaguar sales continued its strong momentum posting an impressive growth of65.3% yoy driven by the growth in the F-type and XF models (on the back of theintroduction of the Sportbrake, AWD and smaller engine variants).Geographically, Jaguar posted a robust growth in all the major markets withChina (up 221% yoy), North America (up 63% yoy) and Asia Pacific (up 32% yoy)being the top three performers during the month.

Land Rover sales too recorded a strong growth of 14.2% yoy led by continuedmomentum in Freelander and Discover models which registered a growth of36.9% and 18.5% yoy respectively. Geographically, Asia Pacific, North Americaand China were the top three performers and posted a growth of 46%, 21% and20% yoy respectively. Sales in Europe however, declined 5% yoy due to thephasing out of Range Rover Sport .

We expect headwinds in the standalone business to continue in FY2014 due toweak macro-economic environment which is expected to continue impactingdomestic volumes. Nevertheless, we expect JLR to sustain its strong performancedriven by continued momentum in the global luxury vehicle market and aidedfurther by the strong product launch pipeline and the success of the modellaunched in 4QFY2013. We expect JLR volumes to grow at ~13% CAGR duringFY2013-15E and PAT to grow at ~15% CAGR during the same period. We retainour positive view and Buy rating on the stock with an SOTP based target priceof ` 355.

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Sesa Goa- Sterlite Industries get Bombay High Court approvalfor merger

The division bench of High Court of Bombay at Goa has dismissed a shareholdersappeal which was opposing the proposed Sesa Goa- Sterlite Industries merger.

The promoters, Vedanta Resources, had proposed the merger during January 2012 after which it had gradually received most approvals required to merge SesaGoa with Sterlite Industries to form the merged entity, Sesa Sterlite. With this courtapproval we now believe both the companies have completed major formalitiesrequired for the merger. We now await a specific timeline for the proposedmerger. Meanwhile, we maintain our Buy ratings on the stocks of Sesa Goa andSterlite Industries with target prices of ` 149 and ` 87, respectively.

Hindalcos subsidiary Novelis reports 1QFY2014 results

Hindalcos subsidiary Novelis reported its weak 1QFY2014 results. The companystop-line declined by 5.6% yoy to US$2,408mn on account of decrease in salesvolumes coupled with lower aluminium prices and lower conversion premiums.The aluminium shipments in 1QFY2014 declined 2.0% yoy to 708kt. The EBITDA also declined 26.1% yoy at US$173mn and therefore the company reported a PATdecline of 84.6% yoy to US$14mn. We maintain our Neutral view on Hindalco .

Result Review

ONGC (CMP: ` 278/ TP: Under Review/ Upside :-)

ONGCs 1QFY2014 net profit was below our and street expectations on accountof higher than expected subsidy. Its net sales decreased 4.3% yoy to ` 19,218cr onaccount of higher subsidy burden in our view. The company shared a subsidy burden of ` 12,622cr in 1QFY2014, compared to ` 12,346cr in 1QFY2013 and

` 12,312cr in 4QFY2013. Its EBITDA declined 23.7% yoy to ` 8,488cr due to lowerrealizations. Depreciation expense increased by 22.0% yoy to ` 3,901cr; hence, itsnet profit declined 33.9% yoy to ` 4,016cr (below our estimate of ` 5,532cr). Wemaintain a Buy on the stock while we keep our target price under review.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 169,963 35.3 28,582 33.4 17.7 8.3 1.4 3.5 1.1

FY2015E 196,050 36.6 33,087 38.7 18.2 7.2 1.2 2.6 0.8

SBI (CMP: ` 1,605/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

SBI reported poor operating performance for the quarter, primarily dragged by asset quality challenges. NII for the bank grew by 3.5% yoy to ` 11,512cr(vs. advance growth of 15.6%, as NIMs declined 41bp yoy to 3.2%). In-line withsectoral trends, Non-interest income for the bank grew by 28.1% yoy to ` 4,474cr,largely aided by treasury gains of ` 1,201 as compared to ` 221cr in 1QFY2013.Overall, pre-provisioning profit for the bank de-grew by 7.6% yoy to ` 7,551cr.

On the asset quality front, the bank reported disappointed set of numbers, asslippages surged to 5.3% (annualized slippage rate of 2.7% in previous quarter),

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while recoveries and upgrades came in lower sequentially. Hence, Gross NPA levels increased sequentially by 19.0%, while Net NPA levels increased by muchhigher 36.6% qoq (amongst the worst within our coverage banks). Provisioningexpenses increased by 16.7% yoy to ` 2,866cr. Thus, bottom-line de-grew by 13.6% yoy to ` 3,241cr. Considering recent macro developments in an overall

weak economic environment, we remain cautious on asset quality pressures for thesector. At CMP, the stock trades at a valuation of 0.9x FY2015E P/ABV. We wouldrecommend a Neutral rating on the stock.

Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABV

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 66,417 3.0 15,558 227.4 1,567.0 0.9 15.4 7.1 1.0

FY2015E 76,734 3.0 19,484 284.8 1,799.1 1.0 17.0 5.6 0.9

Tech Mahindra (CMP: ` 1,266/ TP: Under Review)

Tech Mahindra announced its 1QFY2014 results which came in above ourexpectations on all broader fronts. The dollar revenues (including MahindraSatyam) grew by 3.8% qoq to US$724mn (2.8% organic, excluding Complex IT).In INR terms, revenues came in at ` 4,103cr, up 6.8% qoq. The EBITDA margin ofcame in at 21.1%, up ~110bp qoq and ahead of our expectations of 20.9%.Margins were aided by 130bp qoq of favorable currency impact, partially offset by 80bp of negative impact from higher expenses (especially visa related).Management indicated that the company should be able to sustain current marginlevels after absorbing the impact of wage hikes. Adjusted net profit came in at

` 686cr, up 36% qoq helped by higher non-operating income from forex gains.

Tech Mahindra also proposed to increase the FII limit from current 35% to 45% ofpaid-in capital, which may make it eligible for inclusion in MSCI Global StandardIndex, following Satyams removal in July.

During the quarter, Tech Mahindra won three large deals in the ERP space, withTCV of ~US$50-60mn each. Management expects non-BT telecom business togrow in line with company average and above Telecom sector average, while BTrevenues are expected to remain modest, clocking about 52mn per quarter in thenear term. Management indicated that the company is witnessing pick up indiscretionary spending and a strong deal pipeline in IMS, where Tech Mahindra isactively gaining market share through renewal deal wins. We continue to remain

positive on Tech Mahindra; the target price is currently under review.


March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 8,373 20.8 1,484 111.5 21.811.3 2.5 9.4 2.0

FY2015E 9,020 20.4 1,625 122.2 19.510.4 2.0 8.5 1.7

Note: Numbers exclude Mahindra Satyam financials

DLF (CMP: ` 139/ TP: under review)

For 1QFY2014, DLF reported good set of numbers which were above consensusestimate, both on revenue and profitability front. On the top-line front, DLFsrevenue grew by 4.0% yoy to ` 2,314cr in 1QFY2014; which was above consensusestimate of ` 2,063cr. EBIDTAM came in at 39.6% in 1QFY2014 which was above

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street estimate of 37.0%. On the back of higher sales, some projects attainingrevenue recognition threshold and new launches during the quarter company reported a PAT of ` 181cr (against consensus estimate of ` 118cr) in 1QFY2014,indicating a decline of 38.1% yoy. During the quarter, the company has completedone of the largest institutional private placement (IPP) having raised ` 1,863cr. The

stock rating is currently under review. We will come out with a detailed note aconference call with the management.


March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 8,293 36.5 969 5.7 3.7 24.3 0.9 14.0 5.1

FY2015E 9,622 36.1 1,144 6.7 4.1 20.6 0.8 11.7 4.2

Marico (CMP: ` 202/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

For 1QFY2014 Maricos results were better than our estimates. The companysconsolidated top-line rose by 8.9% to ` 1,380cr, aided by volume growth of 10%.Domestic and International FMCG business posted volume growth of 10% and 9%respectively. OPM rose by 187bp yoy to 16.5%, aided by higher gross marginsand lower other expenses as a % of sales. Bottom-line rose by 25.4% yoy to

` 157cr. We maintain a Neutral rating on the stock

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/sales

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 5,273 14.8 468 7.3 21.4 27.9 5.4 17.2 2.6

FY2015E 6,044 14.9 559 8.7 21.0 23.3 4.5 14.9 2.2

Britannia Industries (CMP: ` 732/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

For 1QFY2014, Britannia Industries (Britannia) stand-alone top-line rose by 14.9% to ` 1,403cr yoy driven by superior product mix and higher pricerealizations. OPM rose by 299bp on a yoy basis to 8.3% on account of superiormix, better realization and efficient cost management. Bottom-line rose by 98.8%yoy to ` 86cr. We maintain a neutral rating on the stock.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/sales

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 6,417 6.1 254 21.3 35.7 34.4 11.2 22.0 1.3

FY2015E 7,502 6.2 304 25.5 34.6 28.7 9.0 18.3 1.1

Indraprastha Gas (CMP: ` 268 / TP: -/ Upside: -)

Indraprastha Gas reported its 1QFY2014 results. Its net sales grew by 18.7% yoy to ` 903cr. The company's EBITDA grew by 8.2% yoy to ` 194cr due to higher netsales. The cost of gas sold also increased by 21.6% yoy to ` 596cr due to greatermix of high cost RLNG. Depreciation grew by 24.4% yoy to ` 53cr and tax rate also

grew to 33.5% in 1QFY2014 compared to 31.9% in 1QFY2013 which led to netprofit growing by only 3.6% yoy to ` 88cr. We maintain our Neutral view on IGLdue to the regulatory overhang on the stock.

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Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 3,656 21.5 355 25.4 21.8 10.6 2.1 4.9 1.0FY2015E 4,456 18.6 371 26.5 19.4 10.1 1.8 4.5 0.8

Jyothy Laboratories (CMP: ` 168/ TP: ` 199/ Upside: 18%)

Jyothy Laboratories (JLL) reported strong set of numbers for 1QFY2014. The top-line grew by 13.4% yoy to ` 319cr mainly led by the soaps and detergent segmentwhich witnessed a growth of 16.5% on yoy basis. The revenue from home caresegment remained flat on yoy basis at ` 58cr, mainly due slowdown in Maxo . Thegross margin improved by 689bp on account of better realization and sales mixleading to an expansion of 369bp in operating margin on yoy basis at 15.2%. Thedepreciation for the quarter stood at ` 15cr which included amortization of

goodwill. Further, there was no tax reported in 1QFY2014 because after theamalgamation, as the company has got a tax shield due to the carry forwardlosses of JCPL. Consequently, the company reported a profit of ` 29cr, registeringa robust growth of 103.5% on yoy basis.

Given the successful amalgamation and restructuring, we remain positive on thecompany from a long term perspective. At the CMP of ` 168, the stock is trading ata PE of 16.9x for FY2015E. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stockwith a target price of ` 199 based on a target PE of 20.0x for FY2015E.


March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 1,244 14.1 98 5.9 12.728.4 3.4 18.5 2.6

FY2015E 1,523 14.2 165 10.0 18.816.9 3.0 14.3 2.0

India Cement (CMP: ` 44/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

India Cements posted weak set of numbers for 1QFY2014. Net sales rose by 3.1%yoy to ` 1,238cr. Cement sale volumes rose by a healthy 13.5% yoy to 2.65mntonnes, with the company increasing its sales in Maharashtra and Eastern India .

However, Net Plant Realization fell by 10% yoy to ` 3,185/tonne. While IPL posted

a revenue of ` 108cr, Shipping and Wind businesses posted revenue of 15cr and ` 5cr respectively. The companys OPM plunged by 769bp yoy largely on accountof lower cement realization. IPL business posted an EBITDA of ` 33cr during thequarter, while EBITDA of shipping business stood at ` 1cr. Bottom-line fell by 73%yoy to ` 17cr. We maintain our neutral rating on the stock.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/tonne*

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (US $)

FY2014E 4,796 16.4 225 7.3 6.4 6.0 0.4 5.2 44

FY2015E 5,357 16.1 292 9.5 8.0 4.7 0.4 4.7

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United Bank- (CMP: ` 35 / TP: - / Upside: -)

United Bank reported weak operating performance for the quarter, primarily dragged by asset quality challenges. NII expectedly de-grew by 14.1% yoy to

` 587cr. Non-interest income grew strongly by 88.2% yoy to ` 405cr, probably

boosted by treasury gains, thereby aiding moderate operating profit growth of9.9% yoy to ` 600cr. On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed significant assetquality deterioration during the quarter, as Gross and Net NPA levels increasedsequentially by 35% and 37%, respectively. Consequently, provisioning expensesfor the bank grew by 73.3% yoy to ` 506cr, and earnings de-grew by 74.3% yoy to

` 45cr. We remain cautious on the asset quality performance for the banking sectorgoing ahead, as we take into account recent macro developments and overallweak macro environment. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.

Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABV

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 3,386 2.3 545 12.4 117.1 0.5 10.0 2.9 0.3FY2015E 3,884 2.5 830 20.0 135.4 0.6 14.7 1.8 0.3

Sarda Energy and Minerals (CMP: ` 85, TP: ` 98, Upside: 15%)

Sarda Energy and Minerals (SEML) reported its 1QFY2014 numbers. The net salesdeclined by 8.8% yoy to ` 307cr mainly due to decline in billet sales volumes (down60.9% yoy to 2,591 tonnes). The EBITDA declined 4.5% yoy to ` 55cr in line withdecrease in net sales. The other income however increased by 205.7% yoy to

` 21cr which led to net profit growing by 48.1% yoy to ` 30cr. We maintain our Buyrating on the stock with a revised target price of ` 98.


March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 1,323 17.2 91 25.3 9.5 3.4 0.3 3.4 0.6

FY2015E 1,398 17.9 99 27.7 9.5 3.1 0.3 2.8 0.5

Result Preview

Mahindra and Mahindra (CMP: ` 860/ TP: ` 1,103/ Upside: 28%)

Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) will be announcing its 1QFY2014 results today. Weexpect the companys top-line to register a strong growth of ~13% yoy (flat qoq) to

` 10,563cr driven by ~6% yoy growth in volumes and ~3% yoy growth in netaverage realization. The volume growth was driven by better-than-expected growthof 25.2% yoy (50.2% qoq) in tractor sales even though the automotive segmentregistered a decline of 2.4% yoy (17.6% qoq). The momentum in the automotivesegment has slowed down considerably in 1QFY2014 due to weak consumerdemand and also due to increasing competition in the utility vehicle segment. Onthe operating front, we expect EBITDA margins to expand ~70bp yoy (~40bpqoq) to 12.5% driven by easing of commodity prices and also on account of betterproduct-mix (higher share of tractors in product-mix) and price hikes undertaken in4QFY2013. Consequently, bottom-line is expected to increase 17.1% yoy (6.4%qoq) to ` 850cr. At ` 860, the stock is trading at 12.1x FY2015E earnings.Currently, we have a Buy rating on the stock with an SOTP based target price of` 1,103.

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March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 44,761 11.9 3,738 63.3 23.2 13.6 2.9 7.2 0.8

FY2015E 50,572 11.9 4,185 70.9 21.8 12.1 2.4 5.9 0.7

Tata Steel (CMP: ` 237, TP: ` 260, Upside: 10%)

Tata Steel is expected to report its consolidated 1QFY2014 results today. Weexpect the company to post a net sales decline of 3.2% yoy to ` 32,728cr mainly on account of weak operational performance from European operations. EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 111bp yoy to 8.9%. The net profit is also expectedto decrease by 18.5% yoy to ` 487cr. We maintain our Accumulate rating on thestock with a target price of ` 260.


March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 140,917 9.7 1,918 19.7 5.5 12.0 0.6 6.9 0.7

FY2015E 151,537 10.8 3,101 31.9 8.3 7.4 0.6 7.0 0.8

Hindalco (CMP: ` 94/ TP:-/ Upside :-)

Hindalco is slated to report its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect standalone netsales to increase by 14.2% yoy to ` 6,810cr. EBITDA margin is also expected toexpand by 50bp yoy to 8.3% on account of better profitability from coppersegment. However, Net profit is expected to decrease by 22.7% yoy to ` 328cr. Wemaintain our Neutral view on the stock.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BVEV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 90,717 8.7 2,513 13.1 7.2 7.2 0.5 6.3 0.5

FY2015E 95,092 9.1 2,821 14.7 7.5 6.4 0.5 5.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engineering (CMP: ` 69 / TP: ` 100 / Upside: 45%)

We expect Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) to post good numbers for the quarter on thetop-line front, mainly on account of pick up in execution and a low base of

1QFY2013. The company is expected to post revenue of ` 591cr, a growth of40.2% yoy. The EBITDA margin is expected to witness a jump of 133bp yoy to10.6%, mainly due to pick-up in execution. On the earnings front, the company isexpected to post a dip of 56.5% yoy to ` 23cr. We maintain a Buy on the stock witha Target Price of ` 100.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 2,462 10.6 89 5.9 10.2 11.8 1.1 3.1 0.3

FY2015E 2,731 10.6 101 6.7 10.5 10.4 1.0 3.0 0.3

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IVRCL (CMP: ` 11 / TP: - / Upside: -)

We expect IVRCL to continue with its poor performance for the quarter. On therevenue front, it is expected to post a modest growth of 3.4% yoy to ` 1,249cr onthe back of slowdown in execution. We expect the EBITDA margin to contract by

208bp yoy to 8.2%. The company is expected to post a bottom-line loss of `

3cr vsa loss of ` 6cr in 5QFY2012, primarily on account of slowdown in execution andhigher interest costs for the quarter. We maintain a Neutral rating on the stock.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2014E 5,673 8.1 44 1.4 2.0 7.8 0.2 6.1 0.5

FY2015E 5,892 8.4 56 1.8 2.6 6.1 0.2 5.9 0.5

Quarterly Bloomberg Consensus EstimateBPCL (13/08/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 58,301 54,523 6.9 66,282 (12.0)

EBITDA (832) (8,150) (89.8) 6,581 (112.6)

EBITDA margin (%) (1.4) (14.9) 9.9

Net profit (1,484) (88,374) (98.3) 4,797 (130.9)

GMR Infra Consolidated (13/08/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 2,324 2,534 (8.3) 2,571 (9.6)EBITDA 723 597 21.1 761 (5.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 31.1 23.6 29.6

Net profit (162) (94) 72.3 579 (128.0)

Indian Oil Corp (13/08/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 111,000 96,603 14.9 128,400 (13.6)

EBITDA (3,605) (19,942) (81.9) 16,752 (121.5)

EBITDA margin (%) (3) (21) 13.0

Net profit (5,325) (22,451) (76.3) 14,513 (136.7)

Mahindra & Mahindra (13/08/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 10,314 9,248 11.5 10,353 (0.4)

EBITDA 1,340 1,109 20.8 1,270 5.5

EBITDA margin (%) 13.0 12.0 12.3

Net profit 861 726 18.6 889 (3.1)

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Hindalco Industries (13/08/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 6,032 5,964 1.1 6,916 (12.8)

EBITDA 487 463 5.2 643 (24.3)

EBITDA margin (%) 8.1 7.8 9.3

Net profit 322 425 (24.2) 482 (33.2)

Tata Steel Consolidated (13/08/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 32,488 33,548 (3.2) 34,180 (5.0)

EBITDA 3,104 3,403 (8.8) 4,369 (29.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 9.6 10.1 12.8

Net profit 378 598 (36.8) (6,529) (105.8)

Essar Oil (14/08/2013)

Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 22,681 19,993 13.4 23,534 (3.6)

EBITDA 986 360 173.9 1,322 (25.4)

EBITDA margin (%) 4.3 1.8 5.6

Net profit (56) (1,400) (96.0) 200 (128.0)

HDIL Consolidated (14/08/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 244 198 23.2 140 74.3

EBITDA 140 290 (51.7) 262 (46.6)

EBITDA margin (%) 57.4 146.5 187.1Net profit 86 105 (18.1) (280) (130.7)

LIC Housing Finance (14/08/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net profit 294 228 28.9 316 (7.0)

SAIL (14/08/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 10,745 10,641 1.0 12,163 (11.7)EBITDA 911 1,515 (39.9) 894 1.9

EBITDA margin (%) 8.5 14.2 7.4Net profit 339 696 (51.3) 447 (24.2)

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Economic and Political News Government to increase import duty on gold, luxury goods CAD to touch 3 year low of 3.7% of GDP in FY2014:Chidambaram 35 more districts come under direct transfer of LPG subsidy

Corporate News Shriram Properties to bid for Britannia's factory land in Chennai Mahindra to open auto assembly plant in Ghana Wockhardt may see some relief from USFDA Jet Airways to add six Boeing 737s to its fleet in FY14 Muthoot Finance files draft paper with SEBI to raise NCDs totaling to ` 300cr

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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Date Company

August 13, 2013 IOC, M&M, Tata Steel, Hindalco, BPCL, GMR Infra., GSPL, Sadbhav Engg., IVRCL Infra, Cravatex

August 14, 2013 SAIL, Nalco, LIC Housing Fin., Essar Oil, Bhushan Steel, HDIL, Monnet Ispat, Amara Raja Batteries, Anant Raj, OrchidChemicals, Simplex Infra, Electrosteel Castings, Patel Engg., Madhucon Proj, JK Tyre, Abbott India August 29, 2013 Mphasis

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg DataLast Reported Estimated

August 13, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Jul 2.90 2.80

August 14, 2013 2:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Jul (21.20) (15.00)

11:30AM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 2Q P (1.40) 0.70

12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Jul 4.86 5.00

2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 2Q A (0.30) 0.20

6:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Jul 0.80 0.30

August 15, 2013 6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Aug 10 333.00 335.00

6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Jul 0.50 0.20

6:45PM US Industrial Production % Jul 0.31 0.30

August 16, 2013 6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Jul 836.00 905.00

6:00PM US Building permits Thousands Jul 918.00 948.00

2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Jul F 1.60 1.60

August 21, 2013 7:30PM US Existing home sales Million Jul 5.08 5.13

August 22, 2013 1:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Aug A 51.30 --

1:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Aug A 50.70 --

August 23, 2013 7:30PM Euro ZoneEuro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Aug A (17.40) --

7:30PM US New home sales Thousands Jul 497.00 490.002:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q P 1.40 --

August 27, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Aug 80.30 --

August 29, 2013 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q S 1.70 --

1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Aug (7.00) --

August 30, 2013 5:30PM India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change 2Q 4.80 --

September 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 50.30 --

September 2, 2013 2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 54.60 --

September 5, 2013 4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Sep 5 0.50 0.50

5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Sep 5 0.50 --

September 6, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul 1.20 --6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Aug 162.00 --

6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Aug 7.40 --


August 13, 2013

Market Outlook

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Macro watch

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

9.3

7.7

11.4

9.58.6

9.29.9

7.56.5

6.05.1 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.8

3.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.011.012.0

2 Q F Y 1 0

3 Q F Y 1 0

4 Q F Y 1 0

1 Q F Y 1 1

2 Q F Y 1 1

3 Q F Y 1 1

4 Q F Y 1 1

1 Q F Y 1 2

2 Q F Y 1 2

3 Q F Y 1 2

4 Q F Y 1 2

1 Q F Y 1 3

2 Q F Y 1 3

3 Q F Y 1 3

4 Q F Y 1 3

(%)

(0.1)

2.0

(0.7)

8.4

(1.0) (0.6)

2.5

0.6

3.5

1.9

(2.8) (2.2)(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

J u l - 1 2

A u g - 1

2

S e p - 1

2

O c t - 1

2

N o v -

1 2

D e c -

1 2

J a n - 1

3

F e

b - 1

3

M a r -

1 3

A p r -

1 3

M a y -

1 3

J u n - 1

3

(%)

8.0 8.17.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

5.74.8 4.7 4.9

0.01.0

2.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

A u g - 1

2

S e p - 1

2

O c t - 1

2

N o v -

1 2

D e c -

1 2

J a n - 1

3

F e

b - 1

3

M a r -

1 3

A p r -

1 3

M a y -

1 3

J u n - 1

3

(%)

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

M a y -

1 2

J u n - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

A u g - 1

2

S e p - 1

2

O c t - 1

2

N o v -

1 2

D e c -

1 2

J a n - 1

3

F e

b - 1

3

M a r -

1 3

A p r -

1 3

M a y -

1 3

J u n - 1

3

J u l - 1 3

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(15.0)

0.0

15.0

A u g - 1

2

S e p - 1

2

O c t - 1

2

N o v -

1 2

D e c -

1 2

J a n - 1

3

F e

b - 1

3

M a r -

1 3

A p r -

1 3

M a y -

1 3

J u n - 1

3

J u l - 1 3

Exports yoy growth Im ports yoy growth(%)

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

A u g - 1

2

S e p - 1

2

O c t - 1

2

O c t - 1

2

N o v -

1 2

D e c -

1 2

D e c -

1 2

J a n - 1

3

F e

b - 1

3

F e

b - 1

3

M a r -

1 3

A p r -

1 3

A p r -

1 3

M a y -

1 3

J u n - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1

3

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 143 - 2,776 1,674 1,923 13.7 13.7 6.8 7.6 21.0 18.8 3.9 3.5 20.0 19.6 1.8 1.6

United Phosphorus Buy 144 225 6,374 10,091 11,302 16.5 16.5 19.2 22.5 7.5 6.4 1.2 1.0 17.0 17.2 0.8 0.6

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 257 285 4,387 3,418 3,892 14.5 14.5 18.5 20.4 13.9 12.6 3.3 2.7 26.6 23.8 1.3 1.1

Apollo Tyres Neutral 63 - 3,170 13,409 15,106 11.8 11.6 13.1 15.4 4.8 4.1 0.8 0.7 17.9 17.8 0.4 0.3 Ashok Leyland Buy 13 18 3,565 13,450 15,853 6.5 8.5 0.4 1.9 35.0 7.2 1.2 1.1 2.3 11.0 0.4 0.3

Automotive Axle# Neutral 197 - 298 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 11.4 7.3 1.1 1.0 9.5 14.0 0.4 0.4Bajaj Auto Buy 1,807 2,102 52,287 21,696 25,239 19.2 19.3 119.3 140.2 15.2 12.9 5.3 4.2 38.9 36.6 2.0 1.6Bharat Forge Neutral 229 - 5,332 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 15.8 13.2 2.1 1.8 13.6 14.7 1.0 0.9

Bosch India* Accumulate 8,483 9,096 26,636 9,301 10,895 16.8 18.0 339.9 423.1 25.0 20.1 4.2 3.5 16.6 17.6 2.5 2.1CEAT Buy 117 170 400 5,159 5,628 9.3 9.0 43.5 48.6 2.7 2.4 0.5 0.4 18.4 17.5 0.2 0.2

Exide Industries Buy 126 148 10,723 6,899 7,873 14.7 14.7 7.9 9.0 15.9 14.0 2.7 2.4 18.3 18.0 1.2 1.1FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,135 - 1,886 1,336 1,572 13.8 16.0 75.6 102.4 15.0 11.1 1.9 1.6 13.4 15.8 1.2 1.0

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,905 2,048 38,041 25,562 28,297 14.5 14.4 111.2 146.3 17.1 13.0 6.3 4.9 40.1 42.1 1.3 1.1JK Tyre Buy 92 154 377 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.3 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 860 1,103 52,976 45,254 51,197 11.4 11.7 61.2 70.2 14.1 12.3 2.9 2.5 22.7 21.9 0.9 0.8

Maruti Buy 1,379 1,648 41,652 45,862 52,647 11.2 11.1 94.6 109.9 14.6 12.6 2.0 1.7 14.4 14.6 0.7 0.6Motherson Sumi Accumulate 225 242 13,239 28,442 31,914 8.4 8.7 13.0 16.1 17.4 14.0 4.6 3.6 29.4 28.6 0.6 0.5

Subros Accumulate 20 23 119 1,230 1,398 10.5 10.5 2.3 3.8 8.5 5.2 0.4 0.4 4.8 7.6 0.3 0.3Tata Motors Buy 281 355 75,704 215,043 240,077 13.5 13.7 38.7 44.1 7.3 6.4 1.8 1.4 28.5 25.1 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Accumulate 32 36 1,535 7,659 8,528 6.0 6.2 4.9 5.9 6.6 5.4 1.1 1.0 17.8 19.0 0.1 0.1

Capital Goods

ABB* Reduce 497 461 10,534 8,073 9,052 5.5 6.9 11.5 16.9 43.1 29.3 3.9 3.8 9.3 13.1 1.3 1.1BGR Energy Neutral 103 - 745 3,756 4,569 11.4 9.7 21.7 24.1 4.8 4.3 0.6 0.5 22.3 20.3 0.5 0.5BHEL Neutral 120 - 29,322 43,140 39,692 16.8 15.9 20.2 17.1 5.9 7.0 1.3 1.1 23.1 17.2 0.5 0.6

Blue Star Buy 140 208 1,256 2,941 3,099 3.4 4.2 6.0 9.3 23.4 15.0 2.9 2.5 12.9 18.0 0.5 0.5Crompton Greaves Accumulate 90 103 5,754 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 13.5 10.1 1.5 1.4 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.5Jyoti Structures Neutral 17 - 143 3,312 3,555 9.0 9.0 4.5 6.5 3.9 2.7 0.2 0.2 5.6 7.7 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 25 36 635 7,709 8,399 6.2 6.9 5.1 8.1 4.8 3.1 0.5 0.5 16.6 21.5 0.3 0.2Thermax Neutral 568 - 6,772 5,832 6,397 9.1 9.6 28.8 32.9 19.7 17.3 3.2 2.8 17.2 17.3 1.1 1.0

Cement

ACC Buy 1,168 1,361 21,931 11,581 13,009 17.6 19.3 63.9 81.5 18.3 14.3 2.7 2.5 15.6 18.2 1.6 1.4


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

August 13, 2013

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Cement

Ambuja Cements Neutral 179 - 27,588 9,975 11,409 22.4 23.1 9.4 11.1 19.1 16.0 2.9 2.7 15.7 17.2 2.3 1.9India Cements Neutral 44 - 1,358 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 5.0 4.1 0.4 0.4 7.7 9.1 0.6 0.5

J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 63 79 737 2,235 2,684 19.4 21.4 15.0 18.4 4.2 3.4 0.5 0.5 13.2 14.3 0.5 0.9Madras Cements Neutral 173 - 4,123 4,234 4,788 23.9 24.0 18.5 22.8 9.4 7.6 1.5 1.3 17.2 18.2 1.3 1.1

Shree Cement^ Neutral 3,908 - 13,613 6,607 7,520 27.5 26.7 322.8 374.3 12.1 10.4 3.0 2.4 27.8 25.6 1.4 1.0UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,689 - 46,315 22,021 25,274 22.0 21.6 99.5 113.3 17.0 14.9 2.7 2.3 16.7 16.6 2.1 1.9

Construction Ashoka Buildcon Buy 51 60 799 1,912 2,131 21.0 21.5 5.0 5.5 10.1 9.3 0.7 0.7 8.8 7.6 1.7 1.8Consolidated Co Neutral 6 - 118 1,715 1,824 2.4 6.2 (2.9) (0.4) (2.2) (17.6) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5

IRB Infra Buy 72 106 2,380 3,805 4,248 45.1 45.3 15.0 15.8 4.8 4.5 0.7 0.6 14.5 13.9 2.8 3.1ITNL Buy 126 156 2,450 7,423 7,970 27.5 28.7 30.3 32.0 4.2 4.0 0.6 0.5 15.0 14.0 2.4 2.5IVRCL Infra Neutral 11 - 348 5,673 5,892 8.1 8.4 1.4 1.8 7.9 6.2 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.5

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 31 41 6,979 12,946 14,897 24.7 25.6 1.2 2.7 25.6 11.8 0.5 0.5 2.0 4.3 2.4 2.2Larsen & Toubro Buy 797 1,002 73,785 68,946 78,040 10.0 10.0 49.0 55.2 16.3 14.4 2.3 2.1 14.9 15.3 1.2 1.1

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 20 30 518 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 7.6 5.6 0.2 0.2 2.7 3.6 0.4 0.4Punj Lloyd Neutral 25 - 830 12,726 14,226 8.2 8.2 0.9 1.0 29.1 24.5 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.6

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 70 100 1,057 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.9 6.7 11.9 10.5 1.2 1.1 10.2 10.5 0.7 0.7Simplex Infra Neutral 51 - 253 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 4.3 2.7 0.2 0.2 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5

Unity Infra Neutral 19 - 143 2,146 2,339 12.9 13.0 9.3 9.6 2.1 2.0 0.2 0.2 8.0 7.7 0.7 0.7

Financials

Allahabad Bank Neutral 72 - 3,610 6,843 7,528 2.5 2.5 26.0 30.1 2.8 2.4 0.4 0.4 11.8 12.4 - -

Andhra Bank Reduce 60 51 3,332 4,868 5,390 2.4 2.5 12.3 16.6 4.9 3.6 0.5 0.4 7.9 10.0 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,070 1,255 50,173 19,280 22,886 3.3 3.3 130.7 157.1 8.2 6.8 1.3 1.2 17.3 18.1 - -Bank of Baroda Neutral 518 - 21,808 15,896 17,947 2.2 2.3 95.4 124.4 5.4 4.2 0.7 0.6 12.0 14.2 - -

Bank of India Neutral 177 - 10,521 14,482 16,069 2.3 2.2 55.0 62.2 3.2 2.8 0.5 0.4 13.7 13.9 - -Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 39 - 2,610 4,529 4,780 3.0 2.8 12.3 11.8 3.2 3.4 0.5 0.4 16.5 14.1 - -

Canara Bank Neutral 247 - 10,958 11,454 12,378 2.0 2.0 52.4 60.5 4.7 4.1 0.5 0.5 9.8 10.4 - -Central Bank Neutral 57 - 5,902 8,196 9,202 2.4 2.4 6.1 15.9 9.3 3.6 0.7 0.6 5.2 12.8 - -

Corporation Bank Neutral 278 - 4,246 5,641 6,083 2.0 2.0 82.7 98.1 3.4 2.8 0.4 0.4 12.6 13.5 - -Dena Bank Neutral 47 - 1,640 3,307 3,531 2.2 2.4 17.5 21.6 2.7 2.2 0.3 0.3 11.9 13.2 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 331 - 5,651 2,798 3,250 3.0 3.0 38.1 51.9 8.7 6.4 0.8 0.8 9.8 12.3 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

August 13, 2013

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 13-08-2013

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Financials

HDFC Accumulate 769 830 119,600 8,679 10,350 3.6 3.6 37.5 44.7 20.5 17.2 4.3 3.8 30.1 30.7 - -HDFC Bank Buy 602 745 143,744 27,392 33,264 4.6 4.6 36.3 45.1 16.6 13.3 3.4 2.8 21.9 22.8 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 866 1,038 99,990 25,727 29,969 3.2 3.2 83.2 96.7 10.4 9.0 1.4 1.3 14.9 15.4 - -IDBI Bank Neutral 59 - 7,903 9,518 10,468 2.0 2.0 15.5 22.1 3.8 2.7 0.4 0.3 10.2 13.3 - -

Indian Bank Neutral 70 - 3,017 5,940 6,396 2.7 2.7 24.9 32.9 2.8 2.1 0.3 0.3 10.3 12.4 - -IOB Neutral 40 - 3,701 7,692 8,627 2.2 2.3 8.1 15.2 5.0 2.6 0.3 0.3 5.9 10.5 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 1,064 - 5,159 3,038 3,370 3.7 3.9 214.2 202.6 5.0 5.3 0.9 0.8 19.8 16.3 - -LIC Housing Finance Neutral 175 - 8,849 2,180 2,732 2.4 2.5 26.3 32.1 6.7 5.5 1.2 1.0 19.0 19.9 - -Oriental Bank Neutral 142 - 4,144 6,918 7,459 2.6 2.5 46.7 52.5 3.0 2.7 0.4 0.3 10.8 11.1 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral 535 - 18,921 20,766 23,515 3.4 3.4 135.0 164.8 4.0 3.3 0.6 0.5 14.4 15.7 - -South Ind.Bank Neutral 21 - 2,748 1,800 2,023 2.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 5.5 4.9 0.9 0.8 16.2 16.2 - -

St Bk of India Neutral 1,605 - 109,774 66,417 76,734 3.0 3.0 227.4 284.8 7.1 5.6 1.0 0.9 15.4 17.1 - -Syndicate Bank Neutral 70 - 4,196 6,740 7,512 2.5 2.5 21.0 23.5 3.3 3.0 0.4 0.4 12.6 12.8 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 56 - 4,185 6,770 7,017 2.8 2.6 14.8 15.5 3.8 3.6 0.6 0.5 14.4 13.5 - -Union Bank Neutral 118 - 7,069 10,458 11,809 2.5 2.5 32.0 40.6 3.7 2.9 0.5 0.4 11.6 13.4 - -United Bank Neutral 36 - 1,340 3,386 3,884 2.3 2.5 12.4 20.0 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.3 10.0 14.7 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 37 - 1,853 2,718 2,941 1.8 1.9 7.0 9.0 5.3 4.2 0.4 0.4 8.2 9.8 - -Yes Bank Neutral 301 - 10,835 4,417 5,486 2.7 2.8 42.9 49.5 7.0 6.1 1.5 1.3 23.9 22.8 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 436 - 41,855 12,332 14,524 16.3 16.1 13.9 16.0 31.4 27.2 10.0 7.9 35.2 32.5 3.3 2.8Britannia Neutral 732 - 8,771 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 21.3 25.5 34.4 28.8 11.2 9.0 35.7 34.6 1.4 1.1

Colgate Neutral 1,327 - 18,041 3,588 4,130 18.9 19.4 41.2 48.4 32.2 27.4 31.3 23.8 105.1 98.5 4.9 4.2Dabur India Neutral 167 - 29,031 7,183 8,297 16.8 16.9 5.4 6.3 31.1 26.5 11.0 8.7 39.2 36.7 4.1 3.5

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,986 - 16,762 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 32.6 26.8 10.2 8.2 34.1 33.7 4.2 3.5Godrej Consumer Neutral 861 - 29,308 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 34.3 29.0 7.4 6.1 24.9 24.2 3.9 3.3

HUL Neutral 615 - 132,942 28,415 31,962 13.6 14.1 16.7 18.2 36.9 33.8 35.4 25.7 112.2 88.1 4.5 4.0ITC Neutral 336 - 265,509 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 29.8 25.2 9.8 7.9 36.1 34.9 7.4 6.3

Marico Neutral 202 - 13,032 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 27.9 23.3 5.4 4.5 21.4 21.0 2.5 2.2Nestle* Neutral 5,103 - 49,202 9,330 10,860 21.8 21.9 123.3 149.7 41.4 34.1 20.3 14.8 56.4 50.3 5.3 4.5Tata Global Neutral 146 - 8,998 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 18.6 17.0 2.2 2.1 9.5 9.7 1.1 1.0


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IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 932 1,012 64,920 30,698 33,933 22.1 21.5 65.3 69.8 14.3 13.3 3.6 2.9 26.5 23.0 1.9 1.6Hexaware* Neutral 122 - 3,645 2,213 2,479 21.5 20.5 12.1 12.9 10.1 9.5 2.5 2.2 25.4 23.5 1.5 1.3

Infosys Reduce 3,005 2,820 172,572 47,001 51,196 26.2 26.4 171.3 189.4 17.6 15.9 3.6 3.1 20.4 19.3 3.0 2.6Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 175 190 1,958 2,052 2,263 17.2 17.6 20.7 22.5 8.5 7.8 1.3 1.1 14.9 14.0 0.6 0.5

KPIT Cummins Accumulate 129 145 2,499 2,670 3,018 17.3 16.7 14.1 15.3 9.2 8.5 1.8 1.4 20.9 18.4 0.9 0.7Mindtree Accumulate 998 1,050 4,148 2,768 3,006 19.7 19.9 103.1 105.3 9.7 9.5 2.3 1.9 24.8 20.3 1.2 1.0

Mphasis& Neutral 406 - 8,535 6,372 6,852 18.0 18.2 38.0 43.5 10.7 9.3 1.5 1.3 14.3 14.2 0.9 0.7NIIT Sell 18 15 301 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 4.2 3.4 0.4 0.4 10.3 12.0 0.1 -Persistent Accumulate 520 568 2,079 1,533 1,715 22.2 22.5 49.2 56.8 10.6 9.2 1.7 1.5 16.4 16.1 1.0 0.8

TCS Accumulate 1,815 2,060 355,157 79,005 91,576 29.7 30.0 88.6 103.1 20.5 17.6 6.5 5.1 31.5 29.2 4.3 3.6Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,266 1,390 29,406 8,102 8,709 19.7 19.2 107.5 117.0 11.8 10.8 2.5 2.1 21.2 18.9 3.6 3.3

Wipro Neutral 455 - 112,096 42,196 45,890 21.0 21.6 28.3 31.2 16.1 14.6 3.4 2.9 20.7 19.4 2.2 1.9

Media

D B Corp Buy 255 302 4,681 1,783 1,968 25.2 26.8 14.6 17.2 17.6 14.8 4.6 3.9 23.9 24.2 2.5 2.2

HT Media Buy 96 117 2,263 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.3 11.6 10.4 1.4 1.3 11.6 11.6 0.7 0.5Jagran Prakashan Buy 90 116 3,002 1,683 1,845 22.3 23.7 6.5 7.8 13.8 11.6 2.8 2.5 21.3 23.1 1.9 1.7

PVR Neutral 356 - 1,415 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 20.7 16.5 2.1 1.9 10.3 12.0 1.5 1.3Sun TV Network Neutral 405 - 15,976 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 20.3 17.4 5.0 4.4 26.4 27.3 6.6 5.8

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 462 - 10,459 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.4 6.9 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9Coal India Neutral 274 - 173,289 70,158 74,443 29.8 30.2 25.2 27.1 10.9 10.1 2.7 2.3 33.3 33.1 1.6 1.5

Electrosteel Castings Accumulate 12 13 388 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 9.4 4.6 0.1 - 2.6 5.2 0.5 0.1

GMDC Buy 93 115 2,972 1,701 1,985 47.8 48.8 17.4 20.6 5.4 4.5 1.0 0.9 20.7 20.9 1.3 0.9Hind. Zinc Buy 104 120 43,986 12,389 13,093 48.5 51.7 15.2 17.0 6.8 6.1 1.2 1.0 18.5 18.0 1.4 0.9

Hindalco Neutral 94 - 17,949 89,352 93,672 8.8 9.2 13.4 15.0 7.0 6.3 0.5 0.5 7.3 7.6 0.5 0.5JSW Steel Neutral 518 - 12,532 44,605 47,040 15.7 16.0 62.5 75.6 8.3 6.9 0.7 0.6 8.5 9.6 0.8 0.7

MOIL Accumulate 198 223 3,321 956 982 42.3 44.3 25.3 26.2 7.8 7.5 1.1 1.0 14.6 13.7 0.8 0.9Monnet Ispat Buy 102 125 653 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 3.1 2.4 0.2 0.2 8.3 9.9 1.3 1.0

Nalco Neutral 27 - 7,049 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 10.7 10.4 0.6 0.6 5.5 5.5 0.4 0.4NMDC Accumulate 109 123 43,057 10,718 11,514 66.6 64.5 15.5 16.1 7.0 6.8 1.4 1.3 21.2 20.0 1.9 1.8

SAIL Neutral 42 - 17,160 44,060 54,786 9.4 11.5 5.2 7.2 8.0 5.8 0.4 0.4 5.2 6.8 0.6 0.6


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Metals & Mining

Sesa Goa Accumulate 135 155 11,715 3,817 5,781 12.1 17.7 27.0 29.6 5.0 4.6 0.6 0.5 12.9 12.5 3.9 2.6Sterlite Inds Buy 79 92 26,448 44,493 45,599 22.4 23.9 16.8 19.2 4.7 4.1 0.5 0.4 10.5 10.9 0.5 0.5

Tata Steel Accumulate 237 260 22,974 140,917 151,537 9.7 10.8 30.9 47.6 7.7 5.0 0.7 0.6 9.6 13.4 0.5 0.5Sarda Accumulate 87 98 311 1,323 1,398 17.2 17.9 25.3 27.8 3.4 3.1 0.3 0.3 9.5 9.6 0.6 0.5

Prakash Industries Buy 30 37 402 2,486 2,637 15.2 15.0 13.7 14.2 2.2 2.1 0.2 0.2 9.1 8.7 0.4 0.3Godawari Power andIspat Accumulate 69 78 227 2,171 2,317 14.9 15.8 36.4 46.6 1.9 1.5 0.2 0.2 11.6 13.0 0.5 0.4

Oil & GasCairn India Buy 301 364 57,543 18,403 17,925 71.9 62.1 62.1 57.4 4.9 5.3 1.0 0.9 22.6 17.8 1.9 1.7GAIL Neutral 300 - 38,073 49,700 48,822 16.0 16.6 32.9 33.4 9.1 9.0 1.4 1.2 15.9 14.4 0.3 0.2

ONGC Buy 278 330 237,543 170,063 198,461 36.3 38.3 34.7 41.9 8.0 6.6 1.4 1.2 18.3 19.5 1.1 0.8Reliance Industries Neutral 845 - 272,994 397,546 421,695 8.9 8.7 72.3 76.8 11.7 11.0 1.2 1.1 12.3 11.8 0.7 0.6

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 226 - 2,895 3,270 3,414 12.8 12.6 22.6 23.1 10.0 9.8 2.7 2.4 28.2 25.6 0.7 0.6Indraprastha Gas Neutral 266 - 3,723 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.7 30.4 10.0 8.7 2.1 1.8 22.7 21.8 1.1 0.9Petronet LNG Accumulate 119 135 8,936 39,449 43,315 5.3 5.9 14.1 16.9 8.5 7.1 1.7 1.4 21.7 21.9 0.3 0.3Gujarat State PetronetLtd. Buy 53 64 2,957 1,171 1,287 91.9 91.9 10.1 11.3 5.2 4.6 0.8 0.7 17.3 16.8 2.0 1.6

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Neutral 160 - 3,017 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 15.0 11.5 4.7 3.5 35.0 34.7 1.8 1.5 Aurobindo Pharma Buy 181 271 5,262 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 10.5 8.8 1.7 1.4 19.5 18.9 1.2 1.1

Aventis* Neutral 2,501 - 5,760 1,682 1,917 15.6 15.6 91.9 101.7 27.2 24.6 3.8 3.8 15.6 17.1 2.9 2.4Cadila Healthcare Buy 691 894 14,138 7,123 8,367 15.5 15.7 37.3 44.7 18.5 15.5 3.9 3.2 22.9 22.9 2.3 2.0Cipla Accumulate 415 477 33,321 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 19.8 17.4 3.2 2.7 17.2 16.8 3.3 2.8

Dr Reddy's Buy 2,179 2,535 37,049 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.1 126.6 19.4 17.2 4.2 3.4 23.5 21.8 2.9 2.5Dishman Pharma Buy 48 73 387 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 14.8 16.6 3.2 2.9 0.3 0.3 10.8 11.0 0.9 0.8

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,286 - 19,367 2,744 2,964 22.0 23.4 59.2 66.6 38.6 34.3 9.6 9.3 24.9 27.5 6.2 5.7Indoco Remedies Buy 67 78 613 747 906 15.3 15.3 5.9 7.6 11.3 8.8 1.3 1.2 12.5 14.4 1.1 0.9

Ipca labs Neutral 645 - 8,138 3,246 3,830 20.5 21.7 36.2 44.9 17.8 14.4 4.2 3.3 26.1 25.7 2.7 2.2Lupin Accumulate 819 904 36,685 11,576 13,855 22.0 22.0 35.8 43.0 22.9 19.1 5.6 4.4 27.1 25.8 3.2 2.7

Ranbaxy* Neutral 368 - 15,567 11,400 12,060 10.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 21.0 16.4 3.4 2.9 17.0 19.1 1.3 1.2Sun Pharma Neutral 541 - 111,869 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 16.5 19.9 32.8 27.2 6.6 5.5 22.0 22.0 7.7 6.4

Power

GIPCL Accumulate 57 65 864 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 4.2 3.9 0.5 0.4 12.3 12.0 0.7 0.4NTPC Buy 138 163 114,035 75,046 81,780 23.5 23.9 12.7 13.6 10.9 10.2 1.3 1.2 12.2 12.0 2.2 2.2


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Real Estate

DLF Buy 139 175 24,668 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 24.3 20.6 0.9 0.8 3.7 4.1 5.1 4.2MLIFE Accumulate 441 483 1,803 888 1,002 27.0 29.9 33.9 42.1 13.0 10.5 1.3 1.2 9.9 11.2 2.6 2.3

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 342 - 136,671 83,535 92,173 32.0 33.1 9.2 12.9 37.3 26.5 2.4 2.2 6.8 8.9 2.3 2.0Idea Cellular Neutral 163 - 54,170 25,640 28,459 26.9 27.2 4.0 4.9 40.8 33.0 3.4 3.1 8.4 9.4 2.5 2.2

Rcom Neutral 126 - 26,069 22,751 24,628 30.9 31.3 3.4 5.3 36.9 24.0 0.8 0.7 2.1 3.1 2.7 2.4

Others Abbott India* Buy 1,370 1,659 2,911 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 19.3 16.5 3.9 3.3 21.6 21.5 1.3 1.0

Bajaj Electricals Buy 160 184 1,595 3,885 4,472 4.0 5.8 6.8 15.4 23.7 10.4 2.1 1.8 8.8 17.3 0.4 0.4Cera Sanitaryware Buy 513 613 649 631 797 14.5 13.7 42.6 51.1 12.0 10.0 2.9 2.3 26.5 25.3 1.0 0.8

Cravatex Buy 260 459 67 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 9.6 6.8 1.5 1.3 15.7 18.5 0.4 0.4Finolex Cables Buy 55 68 834 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 5.4 4.8 0.8 0.7 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2

Force Motors Buy 259 349 338 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 9.3 5.9 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1Goodyear India* Accumulate 325 345 750 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 10.1 8.8 1.8 1.6 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.3Hitachi Buy 109 153 297 1,080 1,199 8.9 9.1 18.3 19.1 6.0 5.7 1.1 0.9 19.2 17.0 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,385 - 2,109 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 111.1 130.9 21.5 18.2 2.7 2.4 13.3 13.9 1.0 0.9IFB Agro Accumulate 142 156 127 491 642 12.3 13.8 35.0 50.9 4.1 2.8 0.7 0.5 18.2 21.6 0.2 0.1

ITD Cementation Buy 158 232 182 1,417 1,545 11.2 11.1 18.9 25.7 8.3 6.1 0.4 0.4 5.3 6.9 0.5 0.5Jyothy Laboratories Buy 168 199 2,793 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 30.5 18.6 3.5 3.1 12.1 17.7 2.6 2.1

MRF Buy 13,438 16,218 5,699 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0 7.5 7.5 1.6 1.3 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.6Page Industries Accumulate 4,375 4,669 4,879 1,059 1,296 19.5 19.8 125.0 155.6 35.0 28.1 17.3 12.7 56.3 52.2 4.7 3.8

Relaxo Footwears Buy 725 981 870 1,196 1,401 11.9 12.6 55.6 75.4 13.1 9.6 3.1 2.4 27.1 28.1 0.9 0.7

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 192 228 180 1,158 1,322 10.6 11.0 60.5 75.9 3.2 2.5 0.5 0.4 16.8 18.1 0.4 0.3Styrolution ABS India* Buy 355 492 625 1,007 1,108 8.4 8.7 30.3 35.1 11.7 10.1 1.3 1.2 11.7 12.2 0.6 0.5

TAJ GVK Buy 57 108 354 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.2 6.2 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.3Tata Sponge Iron Buy 256 371 394 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.0 3.7 0.5 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 (0.1)

TTK Healthcare Buy 502 632 390 416 481 4.5 6.1 16.2 25.3 31.0 19.8 3.8 3.4 12.6 18.1 0.8 0.7Tree House Buy 252 297 908 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 20.4 16.1 2.4 2.1 11.8 13.1 6.1 4.7

TVS Srichakra Buy 167 230 128 1,591 1,720 6.1 6.4 30.5 38.3 5.5 4.4 0.7 0.6 13.5 15.5 0.3 0.2United Spirits Neutral 2,235 - 32,481 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 53.1 33.0 3.7 3.4 9.1 10.7 3.0 2.6

Vesuvius India* Buy 355 439 720 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.0 9.7 1.8 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.0 0.9


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Others

HSIL Buy 84 117 552 2,042 2,363 14.6 14.8 12.3 16.5 6.8 5.1 0.5 0.5 7.6 9.4 0.7 0.6

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 12, 2013


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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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