market outlook, 16-08-2013

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Market OutlookAugust 16, 2013

Dealers DiaryIndian markets are expected to open in the red following negative start to SGXNifty and weak opening to most of the Asian indices on concerns that the FederalReserve would start the tapering process soon

US stocks moved sharply lower on Thursday as several upbeat economic reports

spurred thinking that the Federal Reserve will begin to scale back its monthly bondbuying program in September. The substantial weakness came following the releaseof a slew of U.S. economic data, including a report from the Labor Departmentshowing that initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in almost six years. The initialjobless claims fell to 320,000 in the week ended August 10th against expectations of330,000. A separate Labor Department report showed that the consumer prices rose inline with estimates in July, while the National Association of Home Builders reportedhomebuilder confidence at a nearly eight-year high in August.

Meanwhile, Indian stocks ended on a positive note on Wednesday led by renewedbuying by FII's and firm global cues following signs of economic revival in the EuroZone. The domestic markets were closed on Thursday due to the IndependenceDay holiday. Going ahead, trading on Friday may be impacted by release of

another set of economic data, including reports on housing starts, laborproductivity, and consumer sentiments.

Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 19,321/ 5,729 levels. If NIFTY trades abovethis level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rallyup to 19,439 19,510 / 5,768 5,793 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below19,321/ 5,729 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to19,250 19,132 / 5,703 5,665 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 19,132 19,250 19,321 19,439 19,510

NIFTY 5,665 5,703 5,729 5,768 5,793

News Analysis

RBI announces measures to rationalize forex outflows RBI exempts incremental FCNR (B) and NRE term deposits from CRR/SLR,

deregulates interest rates on NRE term deposits

WPI inflation surprises negatively RIL discovers new gas in Cauvery basin TTMT global sales continue to slide, JLR posts strong growth in July Lupin settles patent ligation for generic version of Ranexa Bosch to temporarily suspend production at its plants Result Review: SAIL, Bhushan Steel, LIC Housing, Nalco, AMRJ, Abbott India,

Monnet Ispat & Energy, Electrosteel Castings, JKI, Simplex InfrastructuresRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (August 13, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 3,400 3,324 76 1,129 66,527

MFs 838 569 269 (370) (14,716)

FII Derivatives (August 14, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,631 2,314 (683) 11,526

Stock Futures 2,343 1,499 844 27,663

Gainers / LosersGainers Losers

Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)JP Power 12 15.0 Cadila Health 708 (5.1)

Tata Motors 319 9.7 Federal Bank 318 (5.0)

Engineers India 139 8.5 Gitanjali Gems 59 (5.0)

Amara Raja 277 8.0 Yes Bank 283 (3.5)

Tata Comm 165 7.3 JSW Steel 504 (3.3)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex 0.7 138 19,368

Nifty 0.8 43 5,742

MID CAP 0.7 37 5,591

SMALL CAP 0.3 16 5,385

BSE HC (0.2) (18) 9,116

BSE PSU 2.1 109 5,423

BANKEX 0.2 28 11,436

AUTO 3.3 351 10,880

METAL 2.8 201 7,363

OIL & GAS 2.9 241 8,572

BSE IT (0.4) (29) 7,616

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones (1.5) (225) 15,112NASDAQ (1.7) (63) 3,606

FTSE (1.6) (104) 6,483

Nikkei (2.1) (297) 13,753

Hang Sang (0.0) (2) 22,539

Straits Times (0.9) (28) 3,221

Shanghai Com (0.9) (18) 2,082

Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (2.1) (297.2) 13,753

WIT (0.0) (1.8) 22,539IBN (0.9) (27.7) 3,221

HDB (0.9) (18.3) 2,082

Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,274 733

Declines 1,061 600

Unchanged 166 86

Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,926

NSE 11,407

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RBI announces measures to rationalize forex outflows

The RBI has announced additional measures to support the INR by stemming

foreign exchange outflows by Indian residents. On August 14, 2013 the RBI

announced the following measures:

Reducing the limit for Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) under automatic routefor all fresh ODI transactions, from 400% of the net worth of an Indian Party

to 100% of its net worth. This reduced limit would also apply to remittances

made under the ODI scheme by Indian Companies for setting up

unincorporated entities outside India in the energy and natural resources

sectors. This reduction in limit, however, would not apply to ODI by Navratna

PSUs, ONGC Videsh Limited and Oil India in overseas unincorporated entities

and incorporated entities, in the oil sector.

Reducing the limit for remittances made by Resident Individuals, under theLiberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS Scheme), from USD 200,000 to USD

75,000 per financial year. Resident Individuals have, however, now been

allowed to set up Joint Venture (JV)/Wholly Owned Subsidiary (WOS) outside

India under the ODI route within the revised LRS limit.

While current restrictions on the use of LRS for prohibited transactions, suchas, margin trading and lottery would continue, use of LRS for acquisition of

immovable property outside India directly or indirectly will, henceforth, not be

allowed.

These steps come in the backdrop of governments measures aimed at curbing

gold imports through duty hikes, liberalizing caps on FDI limits, attracting capital

flows through ECB/ trade finance, PSU quasi-sovereign bonds for infrastructureand attracting NRI deposits etc. The RBI has also taken some strong measures

since July 2013 including tightening liquidity in the system, open market sales,

linking gold imports to exports, direct forex intervention and the recent curbs on

forex outflows. Owing to these steps and more anticipated actions, the INR is likely

to get some respite against the free fall. The INR has depreciated by about 12%

since the beginning of 2013.

RBI exempts incremental FCNR (B) and NRE term deposits from

CRR/SLR, deregulates interest rates on NRE term deposits

In an attempt to attract more foreign inflows, RBI has exempted incremental FCNR

(B) deposits as also NRE deposits with reference base date of July 26, 2013 and

having maturity of minimum three years, mobilized by banks from maintenance of

CRR and SLR. However, any transfer from NRO accounts to NRE accounts shall not

qualify for such exemptions. Further, it has deregulated the interest rates on NRE

deposits (which was earlier capped at rates offered for comparable domestic rupee

deposits), in order to pass on the benefit of exemption provided on such deposits.

The banks are likely to pass on the benefit of CRR/SLR exemption by hiking their

NRE term deposits rates proportionately. These measures have more to do with

attracting more foreign flows.

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WPI inflation surprises negatively

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation for July 2013 came in at 5.79% as

compared to 4.86% in the previous month and 7.52% in July 2012. The headline

print for July 2013 surprised negatively by coming in much higher than market

expectations of 5.0%, thus breaching the sub-5% level witnessed in the threepreceding months. On a sequential basis, the pick-up can be seen across the

broad components primary articles, fuel & power and manufactured products.

The uptick can be attributed to factors such as rise in vegetable and fuel prices and

the pass through impact of INR depreciation. Core (non-food, non-fuel) inflationinched up to 2.3% from 2.1% in June 2013, reflecting the impact of imported

inflation. Headline inflation for May 2013 has been revised lower by 11bp to

4.58% from 4.69% reported earlier owing to a downward revision in primary

articles inflation. We believe that the recent inflation readings suggesting pass

through of INR depreciation into WPI inflation and still-elevated Consumer Price

Index (CPI) inflation at 9.6% are likely to limit flexibility in the policy stance in the

near-term.

Higher vegetable prices pushed up inflation in primary articles to 8.99% during

July 2013 as compared to 8.14% in the previous month. Vegetable inflation

accelerated by 46.6% as components such as onions and ginger reported a rise of

145% and 275% respectively.

Inflation in fuel and power paced up on expected lines reflecting higher revision of

petrol, diesel and ATF prices due to pass-through of higher crude prices. Inflation

in fuel and power index came in double-digits at 11.31% as against a moderate

7.12% in the previous month and 8.39% in July 2013.

The secular trend of deceleration in manufactured inflation since the past nine

months has come to a halt with a slight uptick during the month. Manufactured

articles reported an inflation of 2.81% in July 2013 as compared to 2.75% in June

2013 and 5.87% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The Reserve Bank of India has so far taken a number of strong liquidity tightening

measures in order to contain volatility in the exchange rate without hinting at any

change in policy rates possibly owing to growth considerations. But the overhang

of global and domestic factors affecting the INR is likely to continue in the near

term. In addition, we believe that the recent inflation readings suggesting pass

through of INR depreciation into WPI inflation and still-elevated Consumer Price

Index (CPI) inflation at 9.6% are likely to limit flexibility in the policy stance in the

near-term.

RIL discovers new gas in Cauvery basin

Reliance Industries (RIL) has discovered new gas reserves in its deepwater Cauvery

block, which has the potential to produce approximately 15mmscmd of gas.

However, as per Directorate General of Hydrocarbons the details on the

production would be known after the detailed appraisal. We await further clarity

over the capex requirements, estimates reserves, production timelines, regulatory

approvals etc. Until then, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

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TTMT global sales continues to slide, JLR posts strong growth in

July

Tata Motors' (TTMT) global sales sustained its downwards slide in July 2013,

declining by 13.8% yoy to 87,566 units, led by poor performance in the domestic

passenger and commercial vehicle segments. While, global commercial vehiclesales posted a decline of 14.4% yoy; global passenger vehicle volumes declined by

13.3% yoy. On a mom basis, global volumes grew by 3.7% driven by the robust

growth witnessed at Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR).

JLR posted an extremely strong growth of 30.6% yoy (15.1% mom) to 35,162

units, which was ahead of our expectations of 32,500 units. The growth was led by

the strong performance of the Jaguar and Land Rover models on the back of the

success of the new launches and easing of capacity constraints. Jaguar continued

its impressive run, posting a growth of 76.5% yoy (16% mom) to 7,174 units driven

by the growth in the F-type and XF model due to the introduction of the

Sportbrake, AWD and smaller engine variants. Land Rover sales too recorded arobust growth of 22.4% yoy (14.9% mom) to 27,988 units.

Meanwhile, JLR has recalled 2,929 cars in the United States for two issues, one

having to do with possible vehicle stalling and the other for power windows that

could pinch. While Jaguar is recalling 940 model year 2013 XF 2-liter GTDi cars

for possible stalling issues; the company is also recalling 1,989 model year

2011-2014XKconvertible cars because the power windows may inadvertently be

activated and pinch or injure an arm or finger.Jaguar dealers will inspect both the

models and provide the necessary service free of cost to the customers. While the

quantum of the current recall is small, we believe that repeated occurrence of such

events may lead to quality concerns amongst consumers.

We expect JLR to sustain its strong performance going ahead, driven by continued

momentum in the global luxury vehicle market and aided further by the strong

product launch pipeline and the success of the models launched in 4QFY2013.

We expect JLR volumes to grow at ~13% CAGR during FY2013-15E and PAT to

grow at ~15% CAGR during the same period. We retain our positive view andrecommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with an SOTP based target priceof 355.

Lupin settles patent ligation for generic version ofRanexa

In June 2010, Lupin notified Gilead, that it had submitted an abbreviated new

drug application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration requesting permission

to manufacture and market a generic version of sustained release ranolazine. In

the notice, Lupin alleged that ten of the patents associated with Ranexa

(ranolazine) are invalid, unenforceable and/or will not be infringed by Lupin's

manufacture, use or sale of a generic version of Ranexa. In July 2010, after

reviewing the notice, Gilead concluded that Lupin infringed its valid and

enforceable patents and filed a lawsuit against Lupin in U.S. District Court in New

Jersey for infringement of its patents for Ranexa. The trial took place in April and

May 2013.

Prior to issuance of the court's decision, on August 9, 2013, Lupin and Gilead

have reached an agreement to settle the patent litigation. Under the agreement,

subject to certain conditions, Lupin would be allowed to launch a generic version

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of Ranexa on Feburary 27, 2019. Ranexa generates approximately US$400mn of

sales in US. We maintain our maintain our accumulate with a price target of `904.

Bosch to temporarily suspend production at its plants

According to a filing with the BSE, Bosch has announced that it will suspend the

production at its Nashik and Jaipur facilities in August 2013 in a phased manner.

While the operations at the Nashik plant will be suspended on 16th and 17th

August 2013; the Jaipur plant will witness production shutdown on 19th and

between 21st and 23rd August 2013. The production shutdown announced is

basically to avoid unnecessary buildup of inventory and align the production as

per the market demand. The domestic automotive industry remains the primary

driver of companys revenue and weak domestic demand on account of sluggish

economic growth, increasing fuel prices and weak consumer sentiments has

affected the companys operating performance in 1HCY2013. Nevertheless, we

remain positive on the long term prospects of BOS due to its technological

leadership and strong and diversified product portfolio. At `8,517 the stock is

trading at 20.1x CY2014E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating on thestock with a target price of `9,096.

Result Review

SAIL (CMP:`44/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

SAILs 1QFY2014 adjusted net profit was better than our estimate on account of

lower than expected raw material costs and higher than expected other income. Itsnet sales decreased 5.0% yoy to`10,106cr (lower than our estimate of`10,452cr)

mainly due to lower realizations (-8.7% to `38,870/tonne) partially offset by

higher volumes (+4.0% to 2.6mn tonnes). The raw material cost and power and

fuel cost declined by 6.4% and 5.8% to `4,057cr and `1,153cr, respectively.

However, its staff costs grew by 15.2% yoy to`2,295cr which resulted in its EBITDA

declining by 36.2% yoy to`967cr. Excluding forex loss of `88cr, its adjusted net

profit de-grew by 43.5% yoy to `539cr (higher than our estimate of `486cr). Wemaintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 54,786 9.8 2,410 5.5 5.5 7.9 0.4 5.8 0.6

FY2015E 64,505 11.8 2,289 7.5 7.1 5.9 0.4 4.2 0.5

Bhushan Steel (CMP:`460/TP: - /Upside: -)

Bhushan Steel reported disappointing 1QFY2014 results. Net sales declined

13.6% yoy to `2,374cr. EBITDA also decreased by 14.6% yoy to `737cr in line

with decline in top-line. Depreciation expense increased 13.0% yoy to `234cr on

account of increased capacity and the interest costs increased 6.6% yoy to`403cr.Consequently, net profit decreased by 63.1% yoy to `76cr. We maintain ourNeutral view on the stock.

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Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 13,794 30.9 1,046 49.3 11.3 9.3 1.0 7.6 2.4

FY2015E 17,088 33.5 1,414 66.6 13.5 6.9 0.9 5.7 1.9

LIC Housing (CMP:`181/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

LIC Housing Finance reported healthy set of numbers for the quarter, in-line

with our estimates. NII growth came in healthy at 24.9% yoy to `473cr, which

aided pre-provisioning profit to grow by 26.8% yoy to `441cr. Provisioning

expenses for the quarter came in at `17cr, a decline of 60.7% yoy (vs.

expectations of`19cr), and hence earnings expectedly grew by 36.3% yoy to

`311cr. We await clarity from the management regarding the asset quality

profile of its developer loan book (which as of 1QFY2014 stands at around

`2,400cr, 3.0% of its loan book). Recent RBI measures expose LIC Housing to

margin pressures, given its wholesale funding nature. We would prefer to wait

and watch macro developments in the near term, before we revisit our outlook

and rating on the stock. Currently, we maintain our Neutral rating on thestock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 2,180 2.4 1,330 26.3 144.9 1.5 19.0 6.7 1.2

FY2015E 2,732 2.5 1,622 32.1 168.5 1.5 19.9 5.5 1.0

Nalco (CMP: `28 /TP: - /Upside: -)

Nalcos 1QFY2014 results were below our estimates on both, top-line and

bottom-line front. Its net sales decreased 10.6% yoy to `1,537cr (lower than our

estimate of`1,798cr) which could be on account of lower realizations in our view.

Staff costs and other expenses rose 13.4% and 16.7% yoy to `321 and `361cr,

respectively. Consequently, EBITDA declined by 49.8% yoy to `153cr. Other

income grew by 27.4% yoy to`179cr. Hence, its net profit de-grew by 28.4% yoy

to`160cr (significantly lower than our estimate of`245cr). Considering lower

aluminium prices and sticky staff costs, we expect Nalcos profitability to

remain under pressure over the coming one year. Hence, we maintain ourNeutral rating on the stock.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 7,656 13.1 658 2.6 5.4 11.0 0.6 2.9 0.4

FY2015E 7,988 13.5 675 2.6 5.5 10.7 0.6 2.9 0.4

Amara Raja Batteries (CMP:`277/ TP: Under Review)

Amara Raja Batteries (AMRJ) reported extremely strong performance for

1QFY2014 beating ours as well as consensus estimates. For 1QFY2014, top-line

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recorded a robust growth of 28.4% yoy (11.2% qoq) to`894cr despite the adverse

macro-economic environment. The top-line was driven by the sustained growth in

the four-wheeler replacement battery segment though the OEM demand remained

muted. The two-wheeler battery segment too registered a significant growth as the

company commenced supplies to Honda Motorcycle and Scooters India during the

quarter. The growth in the industrial battery segment remained strong as well ledby robust demand for telecom batteries in the replacement segment. According to

the Management, the growth was restricted due to the capacity constraints in the

automotive as well the industrial battery segments. On the operating front, EBITDA

margins expanded strongly by 235bp qoq to 16.3% mainly on account of the

savings on the raw-material front. The company also benefitted from superior

product-mix during the quarter. On a yoy basis though, margins contracted 89bp

due to sharp increase in other expenditure probably on account of higher

advertisement expenditure. Led by a strong operating performance, net profit grew

28.5% yoy (64.6% qoq) to`98cr.

AMRJ has announced an ambitious capital expenditure plan of`760cr to ease thecapacity constraints across the product segments that it is facing currently. We

expect the company to sustain its growth momentum going ahead, led by

widening reach, strong product offerings and increasing capacity. Our rating andtarget price is currently Under Review. We shall update the same post ourinteraction with the management.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 3,418 14.5 316 18.5 26.6 15.0 3.6 9.0 1.4

FY2015E 3,892 14.5 348 20.4 23.8 13.6 3.0 7.9 1.2

Abbott India (CMP:`1,366/ TP:`1,628/ Upside:19%)

For 2QCY2013, Abbott India reported lower than expected results at all fronts.

The company reported a sales growth of 6.9% on yoy basis at `440cr, which was

3.7% lower than our estimate of`457cr. EBITDA margin contracted by 116bp yoy

and came at 9.6%, 185bp lower than our estimate primarily due to higher raw

material cost as a percent of net sales. Tax expense for the quarter was `14.7cr

(33.1% of PBT). Consequently, the net profit was flat on yoy basis at `30cr.

However, the net profit was 18.0% lower than our estimate of`36cr on account of

lower top-line growth and contraction in operating margin. At current levels, the

stock is trading at a PE of 16.8x its CY2014E earnings. With clear strategy of

pushing its best brands and focus on nutrition and OTC drug portfolios and

continuous new launches, we remain positive on the growth outlook of AIL. At

current levels, the stock is trading at a PE of 16.8x its CY2014E earnings. Wemaintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of`1,628 based on a target PE of 20x for CY2014E. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS RoE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/salesDec (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)CY2012E 1,788 12.5 152 71.7 21.7 19.0 3.8 11.1 1.3

CY2013E 1,996 12.7 173 81.4 21.2 16.8 3.3 9.5 1.3

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Monnet Ispat & Energy (CMP:`103/ TP: Under Review)

Monnet Ispat reported disappointing 1QFY2014 results. The net sales declined by

9.7% yoy to`470cr mainly due to weak performance from steel business. EBITDA

declined by 15.7% yoy to `115cr due to higher staff cost and other expenditure

which grew by 6.5% and 17.6% to`

27cr and`

50cr respectively. Interest expensesand depreciation expenses grew by 29.5% and 20.2% yoy to `39cr and `26cr

respectively on account of capitalization of various projects. Consequently, net

profit decreased by 23.4% yoy to `52cr. We maintain our Buy view on the stockbut keep our target price under review.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BVEV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 2,326 21.4 223 33.3 8.3 3.1 0.2 6.1 1.3

FY2015E 2,709 23.1 289 43.1 9.9 2.4 0.2 4.2 1.0

Electrosteel Castings (CMP:`12/ TP:Under Review)

Electrosteel Castings (ECL)s 1QFY2014 adjusted net profit grew by 22.7% yoy. Its

net sales increased 8.8% yoy to `466. Its raw material costs as a percentage of

sales declined to 52.9% in 1QFY2014, compared to 54.3% in 1QFY2013. Also, its

other operating income grew by 42.1% yoy to 26cr. Consequently, its EBITDA grew

by 236.7% yoy to`38cr. Excluding forex loss of`45cr, its adjusted net profit grew

by 161.8% yoy to`45cr. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock while we keepour target price under review.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,976 11.8 43 1.3 2.6 9.6 0.1 7.2 0.9

FY2015E 2,017 12.7 83 2.4 4.8 5.0 0.0 6.4 0.8

JK Tyre & Industries (CMP:`92/ TP:`154/ Upside: 67%)JK Tyre & Industries (JKI) reported strong results for 1QFY2014 led by EBITDA

margin expansion of 325bp yoy (221bp qoq) to 12.1% driven by softening of

natural rubber prices (down 12.6% yoy). The top-line posted a muted growth of

4% yoy to`1,484 due to the slowdown in the OEM demand. Nevertheless, EBITDAmargins witnessed a substantial improvement of 325bp yoy (221bp qoq) to 12.1%

as natural rubber prices declined 12.6% yoy leading to a 612bp yoy (280bp qoq)

reduction in raw-material cost a percentage of sales. Employee and other

expenditure as a percentage of sales however, grew by 140bp and 150bp yoy

respectively, restricting further expansion in margins. Aided by strong operating

performance, the operating profit and adjusted net profit posted a robust growth

of 42.3% (31.5% qoq) and 52.6% yoy (96.5% qoq) to `179cr and `68cr

respectively. The depreciation (up 42.7% yoy) and finance expense (up 30.2% yoy)

continue to remain at elevated levels due to the commissioning of the Chennai

plant. During the quarter the company incurred an exceptional expense of `34cr

primarily due to the unfavorable currency movement. The companys Mexican

subsidiary, Tornel, too posted an impressive performance during the quarter.

While the top-line grew marginally by 2.3% yoy to `400cr; EBIT posted a

substantial growth of 114.8% to`59cr with EBIT margins increasing by ~800bp

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aided by decline in input costs. At the CMP of `92, the stock is trading at 2.1x

FY2015E earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of`154.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 7,972 7.1 154.0 37.5 16.4 2.5 0.4 4.0 0.3

FY2015E 8,754 7.0 180.7 44.0 16.6 2.1 0.3 3.8 0.3

Simplex Infrastructures (CMP:`50/TP: under review)

For 1QFY2014, Simplex Infrastructures (SINF) reported a mixed set of numbers

which were above our estimates on the profitability front. SINF reported slow

execution due to stagnant order book and delayed payments from clients; however

owing to stellar operational performance earnings were above our estimate. On

the top-line front, the company reported revenues of `1,395cr registering a

decline of 12.0% yoy, which was 7.8% lower than our estimate. EBITDAM came in

at 10.8% showing an improvement of 114bp/ 104bp on a yoy/qoq basis and was

above our estimate of 9.4%. Interest cost grew by 17.3% yoy to `82cr for the

quarter. The company reported adjusted PAT of`16cr in 1QFY2014, a decline of

43.1% yoy which was above our estimate of `14cr respectively. This was mainly

owing to stellar operational performance during the quarter. The company has an

order book of`15,843cr (2.8x trailing revenue) in 1QFY2014. SINF had secured

order worth `1,685cr in 1QFY2014. The stock rating and target price iscurrently under review. We shall revise our estimates post earnings conferencecall with the management which is scheduled on August 19, 2013 at 4pm.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 6,296 9.4 70 14.1 5.2 3.5 0.2 4.9 0.5

FY2015E 7,020 9.6 105 21.3 7.5 2.3 0.2 4.5 0.4

Economic and Political News

RBI cuts overseas investment cap to keep outflows under check Government mulls one-time diesel price hike of`2-3 Government sets textiles exports target at USD43bn for FY2014 If opposition supports we can table Insurance Bill tomorrow: FM

Corporate News

LIC debt investment cap raised to 20% ONGC to intensify exploration in Tripura Yet to hear from Stemcor on our EoI: Tata Steel DPSC may sign power distribution franchisee agreement for Gaya

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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Date Company

August 29, 2013 Mphasis

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

August 16, 2013 6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Jul 836.00 900.00

6:00PM US Building permits Thousands Jul 918.00 945.00

2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Jul F 1.60 1.60

August 21, 2013 7:30PM US Existing home sales Million Jul 5.08 5.12

August 22, 2013 1:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Aug A 51.30 --

1:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Aug A 50.70 --

August 23, 2013 7:30PM Euro ZoneEuro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Aug A (17.40) --

7:30PM US New home sales Thousands Jul 497.00 490.00

2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q P 1.40 --August 27, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Aug 80.30 --

August 29, 2013 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q S 1.70 --

1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Aug (7.00) --

August 30, 2013 5:30PM India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change 2Q 4.80 --

September 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 50.30 --

September 2, 2013 2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 54.60 --

September 5, 2013 4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Sep 5 0.50 0.50

5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Sep 5 0.50 --

September 6, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul 1.20 --

6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Aug 162.00 --

6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Aug 7.40 --

September 8, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Aug 5.10 --

September 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Aug 2.70 --

September 10, 2013 4:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Aug (6.20) --

4:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Aug 11.64 --

11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Aug 9.70 --

September 12, 2013 5:30PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jul (2.20) --

September 17, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Aug 2.80 --

September 18, 2013 11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Sep 18 0.25 --

11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Sep 18 7.25 --

11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Sep 18 4.00 --

11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Sep 18 6.25 --

October 18, 2013 7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q 7.50 --


August 16, 2013

Market Outlook

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 16-08-2013

11/19



Macro watch

Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends


Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

9.3

7.7

11.4

9.5

8.69.2

9.9

7.5

6.56.0

5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

(%)

(0.1)

2.0

(0.7)

8.4

(1.0) (0.6)

2.5

0.6

3.5

1.9

(2.8)(2.2)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Ju

l-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

(%)

8.17.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

5.7

4.8 4.6 4.9

5.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Ju

l-13

(%)

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Ju

l-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Ju

l-13

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(15.0)

(12.0)

(9.0)

(6.0)

(3.0)

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Ju

l-13

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-12

Oct-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jun-1

3

Ju

l-13

Aug-1

3

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 16-08-2013

12/19

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 146 - 2,839 1,674 1,923 13.7 13.7 6.8 7.6 21.5 19.2 4.0 3.5 20.0 19.6 1.8 1.6

United Phosphorus Buy 151 225 6,703 10,091 11,302 16.5 16.5 19.2 22.5 7.9 6.7 1.3 1.1 17.0 17.2 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 277 - 4,731 3,418 3,892 14.5 14.5 18.5 20.4 15.0 13.6 3.6 3.0 26.6 23.8 1.4 1.2

Apollo Tyres Neutral 65 - 3,296 13,409 15,106 11.8 11.6 13.1 15.4 5.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 17.9 17.8 0.4 0.3

Ashok Leyland Buy 13 18 3,528 13,450 15,853 6.5 8.5 0.4 1.9 34.7 7.1 1.2 1.0 2.3 11.0 0.4 0.3

Automotive Axle# Neutral 209 - 316 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 12.1 7.7 1.1 1.0 9.5 14.0 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,909 2,102 55,226 21,696 25,239 19.2 19.3 119.3 140.2 16.0 13.6 5.6 4.5 38.9 36.6 2.1 1.8

Bharat Forge Neutral 229 - 5,336 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 15.8 13.2 2.1 1.8 13.6 14.7 1.0 0.9

Bosch India* Accumulate 8,517 9,096 26,743 9,301 10,895 16.8 18.0 339.9 423.1 25.1 20.1 4.2 3.6 16.6 17.6 2.5 2.1

CEAT Buy 121 170 413 5,159 5,628 9.3 9.0 43.5 48.6 2.8 2.5 0.5 0.4 18.4 17.5 0.2 0.2

Exide Industries Accumulate 133 148 11,275 6,899 7,873 14.7 14.7 7.9 9.0 16.7 14.7 2.9 2.5 18.3 18.0 1.3 1.1

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,157 - 1,923 1,336 1,572 13.8 16.0 75.6 102.4 15.3 11.3 1.9 1.7 13.4 15.8 1.2 1.0

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,936 2,048 38,667 25,562 28,297 14.5 14.4 111.2 146.3 17.4 13.2 6.4 4.9 40.1 42.1 1.3 1.1

JK Tyre Buy 92 154 379 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 2.5 2.1 0.4 0.3 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 873 1,011 53,792 42,318 48,067 12.0 12.2 58.5 67.1 14.9 13.0 3.0 2.5 21.6 21.1 1.0 0.9

Maruti Buy 1,392 1,648 42,053 45,862 52,647 11.2 11.1 94.6 109.9 14.7 12.7 2.0 1.7 14.4 14.6 0.7 0.6

Motherson Sumi Neutral 236 - 13,892 28,442 31,914 8.4 8.7 13.0 16.1 18.2 14.7 4.8 3.8 29.4 28.6 0.6 0.5

Subros Accumulate 20 23 122 1,230 1,398 10.5 10.5 2.3 3.8 8.7 5.4 0.4 0.4 4.8 7.6 0.3 0.3

Tata Motors Accumulate 319 355 86,022 215,043 240,077 13.5 13.7 38.7 44.1 8.3 7.2 2.1 1.6 28.5 25.1 0.5 0.4

TVS Motor Accumulate 32 36 1,527 7,659 8,528 6.0 6.2 4.9 5.9 6.6 5.4 1.1 1.0 17.8 19.0 0.1 0.1

Capital Goods

ABB* Reduce 487 442 10,325 8,037 9,087 5.8 6.9 12.2 17.0 39.9 28.7 3.8 3.7 9.8 13.1 1.3 1.1BGR Energy Neutral 101 - 732 3,541 4,041 11.8 10.7 21.1 22.9 4.8 4.4 0.6 0.5 21.8 19.5 0.5 0.4

BHEL Neutral 119 - 29,041 43,140 39,692 16.8 15.9 20.2 17.1 5.9 6.9 1.3 1.1 23.1 17.2 0.5 0.6

Blue Star Buy 144 208 1,296 2,941 3,099 3.4 4.2 6.0 9.3 24.1 15.5 3.0 2.6 12.9 18.0 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Accumulate 90 103 5,754 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 13.5 10.1 1.5 1.4 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.5

Jyoti Structures Neutral 17 - 141 3,312 3,555 9.0 9.0 4.5 6.5 3.8 2.7 0.2 0.2 5.6 7.7 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 25 36 640 7,709 8,399 6.2 6.9 5.1 8.1 4.9 3.1 0.5 0.5 16.6 21.5 0.3 0.2

Thermax Neutral 593 - 7,063 5,832 6,397 9.1 9.6 28.8 32.9 20.6 18.0 3.3 2.9 17.2 17.3 1.2 1.1

Cement

ACC Accumulate 1,186 1,361 22,275 11,581 13,009 17.6 19.3 63.9 81.5 18.6 14.6 2.8 2.5 15.6 18.2 1.6 1.4


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

August 16, 2013

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 16-08-2013

13/19



Cement

Ambuja Cements Neutral 177 - 27,302 9,975 11,409 22.4 23.1 9.4 11.1 18.9 15.9 2.9 2.6 15.7 17.2 2.2 1.8

India Cements Neutral 48 - 1,482 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 5.4 4.4 0.4 0.4 7.7 9.1 0.7 0.6

J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 66 79 778 2,235 2,684 19.4 21.4 15.0 18.4 4.4 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.2 14.3 0.5 1.0

Madras Cements Neutral 170 - 4,038 4,010 4,524 23.5 23.4 14.9 18.3 11.4 9.3 1.5 1.3 14.0 15.2 1.6 1.4

Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,074 - 14,191 6,316 7,162 26.5 25.7 294.6 340.5 13.8 12.0 3.0 2.5 24.0 22.7 1.8 1.4

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,727 - 47,361 22,021 25,274 22.0 21.6 99.5 113.3 17.4 15.2 2.7 2.4 16.7 16.6 2.2 2.0

ConstructionAshoka Buildcon Accumulate 54 60 856 1,912 2,131 21.0 21.5 5.0 5.5 10.8 9.9 0.8 0.7 8.8 7.6 1.8 1.8

Consolidated Co Neutral 7 - 127 1,715 1,824 2.4 6.2 (2.9) (0.4) (2.4) (19.0) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5

IRB Infra Buy 74 106 2,445 3,805 4,248 45.1 45.3 15.0 15.8 4.9 4.7 0.7 0.6 14.5 13.9 2.9 3.1

ITNL Buy 126 156 2,444 7,423 7,970 27.5 28.7 30.3 32.0 4.2 3.9 0.6 0.5 15.0 14.0 2.4 2.5

IVRCL Infra Neutral 11 - 342 5,673 5,892 7.8 7.6 (1.7) (2.0) (6.7) (5.7) 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 33 41 7,390 12,946 14,897 24.7 25.6 1.2 2.7 27.1 12.4 0.6 0.5 2.0 4.3 2.5 2.2

Larsen & Toubro Buy 798 1,002 73,840 68,946 78,040 10.0 10.0 49.0 55.2 16.3 14.5 2.3 2.1 14.9 15.3 1.2 1.1

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 21 30 543 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 7.9 5.8 0.2 0.2 2.7 3.6 0.4 0.4

Punj Lloyd Neutral 26 - 868 12,726 14,226 8.2 8.2 0.9 1.0 30.5 25.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.6

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 70 99 1,054 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.3 6.0 13.2 11.6 1.2 1.1 9.2 9.6 0.7 0.7

Simplex Infra Neutral 51 - 250 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 4.3 2.7 0.2 0.2 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5

Unity Infra Neutral 20 - 146 2,146 2,339 12.9 13.0 9.3 9.6 2.1 2.1 0.2 0.2 8.0 7.7 0.7 0.7

Financials

Allahabad Bank Neutral 73 - 3,670 6,843 7,528 2.5 2.5 26.0 30.1 2.8 2.4 0.4 0.4 11.8 12.4 - -

Andhra Bank Reduce 60 55 3,330 4,868 5,390 2.4 2.5 12.3 16.6 4.9 3.6 0.5 0.4 7.9 10.0 - -

Axis Bank Accumulate 1,150 1,255 53,934 19,280 22,886 3.3 3.3 130.7 157.1 8.8 7.3 1.4 1.2 17.3 18.1 - -Bank of Baroda Neutral 524 - 22,057 15,896 17,947 2.2 2.3 95.4 124.4 5.5 4.2 0.7 0.6 12.0 14.2 - -

Bank of India Neutral 180 - 10,732 14,482 16,069 2.3 2.2 55.0 62.2 3.3 2.9 0.5 0.4 13.7 13.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 40 - 2,633 4,529 4,780 3.0 2.8 12.3 11.8 3.2 3.4 0.5 0.5 16.5 14.1 - -

Canara Bank Neutral 249 - 11,028 11,454 12,378 2.0 2.0 52.4 60.5 4.8 4.1 0.5 0.5 9.8 10.4 - -

Central Bank Neutral 56 - 5,871 8,196 9,202 2.4 2.4 6.1 15.9 9.3 3.6 0.7 0.6 5.2 12.8 - -

Corporation Bank Neutral 276 - 4,218 5,641 6,083 2.0 2.0 82.7 98.1 3.3 2.8 0.4 0.4 12.6 13.5 - -

Dena Bank Neutral 49 - 1,728 3,307 3,531 2.2 2.4 17.5 21.6 2.8 2.3 0.3 0.3 11.9 13.2 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 328 - 5,602 2,798 3,250 3.0 3.0 38.1 51.9 8.6 6.3 0.8 0.7 9.8 12.3 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

August 16, 2013

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 16-08-2013

14/19



Financials

HDFC Accumulate 782 824 121,559 8,679 10,350 3.6 3.6 37.5 44.7 20.8 17.5 4.4 3.9 30.1 30.7 - -

HDFC Bank Buy 621 724 148,343 27,392 33,264 4.6 4.6 36.3 45.1 17.1 13.8 3.5 2.9 21.9 22.8 - -

ICICI Bank Accumulate 904 1,038 104,347 25,727 29,969 3.2 3.2 83.2 96.7 10.9 9.4 1.4 1.3 14.9 15.4 - -

IDBI Bank Neutral 61 - 8,170 9,518 10,468 2.0 2.0 15.5 22.1 4.0 2.8 0.4 0.4 10.2 13.3 - -

Indian Bank Neutral 72 - 3,075 5,940 6,396 2.7 2.7 24.9 32.9 2.9 2.2 0.3 0.3 10.3 12.4 - -

IOB Neutral 41 - 3,812 7,692 8,627 2.2 2.3 8.1 15.2 5.1 2.7 0.3 0.3 5.9 10.5 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 1,093 - 5,298 3,038 3,370 3.7 3.9 214.2 202.6 5.1 5.4 0.9 0.8 19.8 16.3 - -LIC Housing Finance Neutral 181 - 9,137 2,180 2,732 2.4 2.5 26.3 32.1 6.9 5.6 1.3 1.1 19.0 19.9 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 141 - 4,118 6,918 7,459 2.6 2.5 46.7 52.5 3.0 2.7 0.4 0.3 10.8 11.1 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral 538 - 19,006 20,766 23,515 3.4 3.4 135.0 164.8 4.0 3.3 0.6 0.5 14.4 15.7 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 21 - 2,808 1,800 2,023 2.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 5.6 5.0 0.9 0.8 16.2 16.2 - -

St Bk of India Neutral 1,625 - 111,162 65,392 74,467 3.0 3.0 192.5 240.5 8.4 6.8 1.1 1.0 13.1 14.7 - -

Syndicate Bank Neutral 70 - 4,229 6,740 7,512 2.5 2.5 21.0 23.5 3.4 3.0 0.4 0.4 12.6 12.8 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 56 - 4,249 6,770 7,017 2.8 2.6 14.8 15.5 3.8 3.6 0.6 0.5 14.4 13.5 - -

Union Bank Neutral 120 - 7,132 10,458 11,809 2.5 2.5 32.0 40.6 3.7 2.9 0.5 0.4 11.6 13.4 - -

United Bank Neutral 36 - 1,362 3,386 3,884 2.3 2.5 12.4 20.0 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.3 10.0 14.7 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 38 - 1,903 2,718 2,941 1.8 1.9 7.0 9.0 5.5 4.3 0.5 0.4 8.2 9.8 - -

Yes Bank Neutral 292 - 10,507 4,417 5,486 2.7 2.8 42.9 49.5 6.8 5.9 1.5 1.2 23.9 22.8 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 434 - 41,658 12,332 14,524 16.3 16.1 13.9 16.0 31.3 27.1 10.0 7.9 35.2 32.5 3.3 2.7

Britannia Neutral 752 - 9,010 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 21.3 25.5 35.4 29.5 11.5 9.2 35.7 34.6 1.4 1.2

Colgate Neutral 1,353 - 18,396 3,588 4,130 18.9 19.4 41.2 48.4 32.9 28.0 29.2 22.6 100.0 91.0 5.0 4.3

Dabur India Neutral 172 - 29,903 7,183 8,297 16.8 16.9 5.4 6.3 32.1 27.3 11.3 9.0 39.2 36.7 4.2 3.6

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 4,217 - 17,735 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 34.5 28.4 10.7 8.6 34.1 33.7 4.4 3.7

Godrej Consumer Neutral 892 - 30,356 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 35.5 30.1 7.7 6.4 24.9 24.2 4.0 3.4

HUL Neutral 616 - 133,158 28,415 31,962 13.6 14.1 16.7 18.2 36.9 33.9 35.5 25.7 112.2 88.1 4.6 4.0

ITC Neutral 335 - 264,560 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 29.7 25.1 9.8 7.9 36.1 34.9 7.4 6.3

Marico Neutral 213 - 13,764 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 29.4 24.6 5.7 4.7 21.4 21.0 2.7 2.3

Nestle* Neutral 5,118 - 49,344 9,330 10,860 21.8 21.9 123.3 149.7 41.5 34.2 20.4 14.9 56.4 50.3 5.3 4.5

Tata Global Neutral 148 - 9,131 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 18.9 17.2 2.3 2.2 9.5 9.7 1.1 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

August 16, 2013

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 16-08-2013

15/19



IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 921 1,012 64,168 30,698 33,933 22.1 21.5 65.3 69.8 14.1 13.2 3.6 2.9 26.5 23.0 1.9 1.6

Hexaware* Neutral 122 - 3,657 2,213 2,479 21.5 20.5 12.1 12.9 10.1 9.5 2.5 2.2 25.4 23.5 1.5 1.3

Infosys Reduce 3,070 2,820 176,279 47,001 51,196 26.2 26.4 171.3 189.4 17.9 16.2 3.7 3.1 20.4 19.3 3.1 2.7

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 179 190 1,995 2,052 2,263 17.2 17.6 20.7 22.5 8.6 7.9 1.3 1.1 14.9 14.0 0.6 0.5

KPIT Cummins Accumulate 135 145 2,613 2,670 3,018 17.3 16.7 14.1 15.3 9.6 8.9 1.8 1.5 20.9 18.4 0.9 0.7

Mindtree Neutral 1,007 - 4,184 2,768 3,006 19.7 19.9 103.1 105.3 9.8 9.6 2.4 1.9 24.8 20.3 1.2 1.0

Mphasis& Neutral 398 - 8,366 6,372 6,852 18.0 18.2 38.0 43.5 10.5 9.2 1.5 1.3 14.3 14.2 0.8 0.7NIIT Sell 19 15 306 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 4.3 3.5 0.5 0.4 10.3 12.0 0.1 -

Persistent Neutral 547 - 2,186 1,533 1,715 22.2 22.5 49.2 56.8 11.1 9.6 1.8 1.6 16.4 16.1 1.0 0.8

TCS Accumulate 1,831 2,060 358,279 79,005 91,576 29.7 30.0 88.6 103.1 20.7 17.8 6.5 5.2 31.5 29.2 4.3 3.6

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,322 1,390 30,707 8,102 8,709 19.7 19.2 107.5 117.0 12.3 11.3 2.6 2.1 21.2 18.9 3.8 3.4

Wipro Reduce 460 435 113,390 42,196 45,890 21.0 21.6 28.3 31.2 16.3 14.8 3.4 2.9 20.7 19.4 2.2 1.9

Media

D B Corp Buy 246 302 4,520 1,783 1,968 25.2 26.8 14.6 17.2 16.9 14.3 4.4 3.8 23.9 24.2 2.4 2.1

HT Media Buy 97 117 2,280 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.3 11.7 10.5 1.4 1.3 11.6 11.6 0.7 0.5

Jagran Prakashan Buy 88 116 2,921 1,683 1,845 22.3 23.7 6.5 7.8 13.5 11.3 2.8 2.5 21.3 23.1 1.8 1.6

PVR Neutral 365 - 1,450 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 21.2 17.0 2.1 2.0 10.3 12.0 1.5 1.3

Sun TV Network Neutral 424 - 16,723 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 21.2 18.2 5.3 4.6 26.4 27.3 7.0 6.1

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 459 - 10,405 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.3 6.9 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9

Coal India Neutral 271 - 170,952 70,158 74,443 29.8 30.2 25.2 27.1 10.7 10.0 2.6 2.3 33.3 33.1 1.6 1.5

Electrosteel Castings Accumulate 12 13 394 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 9.6 4.6 0.1 0.1 2.6 5.2 0.5 0.1

GMDC Buy 94 115 2,989 1,701 1,985 47.8 48.8 17.4 20.6 5.4 4.6 1.0 0.9 20.7 20.9 1.3 0.9Hind. Zinc Accumulate 106 120 44,979 12,389 13,093 48.5 51.7 15.2 17.0 7.0 6.3 1.2 1.1 18.5 18.0 1.4 1.0

Hindalco Neutral 98 - 18,763 95,465 99,226 8.4 8.8 13.9 15.8 7.1 6.2 0.5 0.5 7.6 8.0 0.6 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 534 - 12,912 44,605 47,040 15.7 16.0 62.5 75.6 8.6 7.1 0.7 0.7 8.5 9.6 0.8 0.8

MOIL Accumulate 201 223 3,374 956 982 42.3 44.3 25.3 26.2 8.0 7.7 1.1 1.0 14.6 13.7 0.9 0.9

Monnet Ispat Buy 103 125 655 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 3.1 2.4 0.2 0.2 8.3 9.9 1.3 1.0

Nalco Neutral 28 - 7,113 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 10.8 10.5 0.6 0.6 5.5 5.5 0.4 0.4

NMDC Accumulate 114 123 45,297 10,718 11,514 66.6 64.5 15.5 16.1 7.4 7.1 1.5 1.4 21.2 20.0 2.1 2.0

SAIL Neutral 44 - 18,007 44,060 54,786 9.4 11.5 5.2 7.2 8.4 6.1 0.4 0.4 5.2 6.8 0.7 0.6


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Metals & Mining

Sesa Goa Accumulate 139 155 12,085 3,817 5,781 12.1 17.7 27.0 29.6 5.1 4.7 0.6 0.6 12.9 12.5 4.0 2.6

Sterlite Inds Accumulate 81 92 27,305 44,493 45,599 22.4 23.9 16.8 19.2 4.8 4.2 0.5 0.4 10.5 10.9 0.6 0.5

Tata Steel Buy 250 313 24,261 150,121 160,679 10.1 10.8 38.2 52.6 6.5 4.8 0.7 0.6 10.4 12.9 0.5 0.5

Sarda Accumulate 87 98 311 1,323 1,398 17.2 17.9 25.3 27.8 3.4 3.1 0.3 0.3 9.5 9.6 0.6 0.5

Prakash Industries Buy 31 37 414 2,486 2,637 15.2 15.0 13.7 14.2 2.2 2.2 0.2 0.2 9.1 8.7 0.4 0.3

Godawari Power andIspat

Accumulate 71 78 234 2,171 2,317 14.9 15.8 36.4 46.6 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.2 11.6 13.0 0.5 0.4

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 310 364 59,214 18,403 17,925 71.9 62.1 62.1 57.4 5.0 5.4 1.0 0.9 22.6 17.8 2.0 1.8

GAIL Neutral 319 - 40,458 49,700 48,822 16.0 16.6 32.9 33.4 9.7 9.6 1.5 1.3 15.9 14.4 0.3 0.2

ONGC Buy 289 352 247,639 169,963 196,050 35.3 36.6 33.4 38.7 8.7 7.5 1.5 1.3 17.7 18.2 1.2 0.9

Reliance Industries Neutral 865 - 279,405 397,546 421,695 8.9 8.7 72.3 76.8 12.0 11.3 1.3 1.1 12.3 11.8 0.7 0.6

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 219 - 2,813 3,270 3,414 12.8 12.6 22.6 23.1 9.7 9.5 2.6 2.3 28.2 25.6 0.7 0.6

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 269 - 3,766 3,656 4,456 21.5 18.6 25.7 26.8 10.5 10.0 2.1 1.8 22.1 19.6 1.0 0.8

Petronet LNG Accumulate 128 135 9,589 39,449 43,315 5.3 5.9 14.1 16.9 9.1 7.6 1.8 1.5 21.7 21.9 0.3 0.3

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Buy 58 67 3,253 1,002 1,021 91.4 91.5 8.2 8.4 7.1 6.9 1.0 0.9 14.3 13.0 2.7 2.6

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Neutral 158 - 2,972 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 14.7 11.3 4.6 3.5 35.0 34.7 1.8 1.5

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 190 285 5,530 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 11.0 9.2 1.8 1.5 19.5 18.9 1.3 1.1

Aventis* Neutral 2,477 - 5,704 1,682 1,917 15.6 15.6 91.9 101.7 27.0 24.4 3.8 3.8 15.6 17.1 2.9 2.3

Cadila Healthcare Buy 682 894 13,973 7,123 8,367 15.5 15.7 37.3 44.7 18.3 15.3 3.9 3.2 22.9 22.9 2.3 1.9

Cipla Accumulate 420 477 33,735 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 20.0 17.7 3.2 2.8 17.2 16.8 3.4 2.8

Dr Reddy's Accumulate 2,205 2,535 37,476 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.1 126.6 19.7 17.4 4.2 3.5 23.5 21.8 2.9 2.5

Dishman Pharma Buy 49 73 394 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 14.8 16.6 3.3 2.9 0.3 0.3 10.8 11.0 0.9 0.8

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,286 - 19,364 2,744 2,964 22.0 23.4 59.2 66.6 38.6 34.3 9.6 9.3 24.9 27.5 6.2 5.7

Indoco Remedies Buy 64 78 590 747 906 15.3 15.3 5.9 7.6 10.9 8.4 1.3 1.1 12.5 14.4 1.0 0.9

Ipca labs Neutral 666 - 8,402 3,246 3,830 20.5 21.7 36.2 44.9 18.4 14.8 4.3 3.4 26.1 25.7 2.7 2.3

Lupin Accumulate 846 904 37,905 11,576 13,855 22.0 22.0 35.8 43.0 23.6 19.7 5.7 4.6 27.1 25.8 3.3 2.8

Ranbaxy* Accumulate 393 426 16,648 10,400 11,331 6.6 8.4 11.4 15.2 34.5 25.9 3.7 3.2 11.1 13.1 1.7 1.5

Sun Pharma Neutral 550 - 113,952 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 16.5 19.9 33.4 27.7 6.7 5.6 22.0 22.0 7.9 6.5

Power

GIPCL Accumulate 57 65 861 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 4.2 3.9 0.5 0.4 12.3 12.0 0.7 0.4

NTPC Accumulate 144 163 118,982 75,046 81,780 23.5 23.9 12.7 13.6 11.4 10.6 1.3 1.2 12.2 12.0 2.3 2.2


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Real Estate

DLF Accumulate 158 175 28,194 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 27.7 23.5 1.0 1.0 3.7 4.1 5.5 4.6

MLIFE Accumulate 442 483 1,806 888 1,002 27.0 29.9 33.9 42.1 13.0 10.5 1.3 1.2 9.9 11.2 2.6 2.3

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 343 - 136,991 83,535 92,173 32.0 33.1 9.2 12.9 37.3 26.5 2.4 2.2 6.8 8.9 2.3 2.0

Idea Cellular Neutral 173 - 57,519 25,640 28,459 26.9 27.2 4.0 4.9 43.3 35.1 3.6 3.3 8.4 9.4 2.6 2.3

Rcom Neutral 134 - 27,575 22,751 24,628 30.9 31.3 3.4 5.3 39.0 25.4 0.8 0.8 2.1 3.1 2.8 2.5

OthersAbbott India* Buy 1,360 1,659 2,890 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 19.1 16.4 3.8 3.3 21.6 21.5 1.3 1.0

Bajaj Electricals Accumulate 165 184 1,646 3,885 4,472 4.0 5.8 6.8 15.4 24.5 10.8 2.2 1.9 8.8 17.3 0.4 0.4

Cera Sanitaryware Buy 518 613 656 631 797 14.5 13.7 42.6 51.1 12.2 10.1 2.9 2.3 26.5 25.3 1.0 0.8

Cravatex Buy 258 307 67 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 9.5 6.7 1.5 1.2 15.7 18.5 0.4 0.4

Finolex Cables Buy 55 68 834 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 5.4 4.8 0.8 0.7 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2

Force Motors Buy 291 349 379 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 10.4 6.7 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

Goodyear India* Accumulate 321 345 741 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 10.0 8.7 1.8 1.6 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.3

Hitachi Buy 110 153 300 1,080 1,199 8.9 9.1 18.3 19.1 6.0 5.8 1.1 0.9 19.2 17.0 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,350 - 2,078 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 111.1 130.9 21.2 18.0 2.7 2.3 13.3 13.9 1.0 0.9

IFB Agro Accumulate 145 156 130 491 642 12.3 13.8 35.0 50.9 4.1 2.9 0.7 0.6 18.2 21.6 0.2 0.1

ITD Cementation Buy 160 194 184 1,365 1,502 10.9 11.2 18.2 28.0 8.8 5.7 0.4 0.4 5.1 7.4 0.6 0.5

Jyothy Laboratories Buy 172 199 2,851 1,244 1,523 14.1 14.2 5.9 10.0 29.0 17.3 3.5 3.0 12.7 18.8 2.7 2.1

MRF Accumulate 14,164 16,218 6,007 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0 7.9 7.9 1.7 1.4 23.5 19.2 0.7 0.6

Page Industries Accumulate 4,383 4,669 4,888 1,059 1,296 19.5 19.8 125.0 155.6 35.1 28.2 17.4 12.7 56.3 52.2 4.7 3.9

Relaxo Footwears Buy 758 981 909 1,196 1,401 11.9 12.6 55.6 75.4 13.6 10.0 3.3 2.5 27.1 28.1 0.9 0.8

Siyaram Silk Mills Accumulate 202 228 189 1,158 1,322 10.6 11.0 60.5 75.9 3.3 2.7 0.5 0.4 16.8 18.1 0.4 0.3Styrolution ABS India* Buy 361 492 634 1,007 1,108 8.4 8.7 30.3 35.1 11.9 10.3 1.3 1.2 11.7 12.2 0.6 0.5

TAJ GVK Buy 56 108 351 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.1 6.2 0.9 0.8 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.2

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 256 371 395 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.0 3.7 0.5 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 (0.1)

TTK Healthcare Buy 542 632 421 416 481 4.5 6.1 16.2 25.3 33.4 21.4 4.1 3.6 12.6 18.1 0.9 0.8

Tree House Accumulate 263 297 946 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 21.2 16.8 2.5 2.2 11.8 13.1 6.4 4.9

TVS Srichakra Buy 170 230 130 1,591 1,720 6.1 6.4 30.5 38.3 5.6 4.4 0.7 0.7 13.5 15.5 0.3 0.2

United Spirits Neutral 2,409 - 35,007 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 57.2 35.6 4.0 3.6 9.1 10.7 3.2 2.7

Vesuvius India* Buy 356 439 722 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.0 9.7 1.8 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.0 0.9


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Others

HSIL Buy 85 117 562 2,042 2,363 14.6 14.8 12.3 16.5 6.9 5.2 0.5 0.5 7.6 9.4 0.7 0.6

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 14, 2013


Market Outlook

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August 16, 2013

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 16-08-2013

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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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