market outlook, 11th february, 2013

7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 11th February, 2013

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Market OutlookFebruary 11, 2013

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Dealers Diary

The Indian market is expected to open flat, mirroring SGX Nifty which is trading flat

to marginally lower in the opening trade. Major Asian markets Hong Kong,

China, Taiwan, Malaysia and Japan are closed today.

US markets ended higher on Friday partly due to a positive reaction to a commerce

department report showing a much narrower than expected US trade deficit for the

month of December, with the data potentially leading to an upward revision to the

disappointing fourth quarter GDP data. The report showed that the US trade deficit

fell almost 21% in December to US$38.5bn, marking the biggest drop in four

years, from a revised US$48.6bn in November, while economists had expected the

deficit to shrink to US$46.0bn. In another positive sign for the global economy, a

separate report released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics showed that

the Chinese trade surplus came in at US$29.2bn in January compared to the

US$24.2bn surplus expected by economists.The Indian markets fell for the seventh session in a row as growth concerns and

weaker earnings overshadowed firm global cues.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 19,516 / 5,914 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 19,617 19,749 / 5,944 5,984 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

19,516 / 5,914 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

19,384 19,283 / 5,874 5,844 levels.

SENSEX 19,283 19,384 19,516 19,617 19,749

NIFTY 5,844 5,874 5,914 5,944 5,984

News Analysis 3QFY2013 Result Review: Sun Pharma, M&M, Hindalco, Canara Bank, Cadila

Healthcare, Bharat Forge, GSPL, BGR Energy, NCC, Subros, Cravatex

3QFY2013 Result Preview: ONGC, DRL, JP Associates, Britannia, Hexaware,Sadbhav

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (February 07, 2013)

FII 8,632 2,278 6,354 16,169 38,398

MFs 343 825 (481) (1,335) (6,048)

FII Derivatives (February 08, 2013)

Index Futures 1,040 1,341 (301) 7,647

Stock Futures 1,543 1,263 280 31,026

Gainers / Losers

Exide Industries 130 6.0 Ambuja Cements 190 (5.1)

Essar Oil 93 5.4 Ashok Leyland 24 (4.8)

Strides Arco 955 4.2 Indiabulls Fin 284 (4.5)

TCS 1,423 2.6 Adani Enter 232 (4.4)

Gujarat Mnrl 192 2.4 JPInfratec 46 (4.4)

BSE Sensex (0.5) (95.6) 19,485

Nifty (0.6) (35.3) 5,904

MID CAP (0.7) (49.1) 6,756

SMALL CAP (0.9) (65.0) 6,794

BSE HC (1.1) (84.7) 7,874

BSE PSU (1.2) (90.5) 7,263

BANKEX (0.6) (79.7) 14,103

AUTO (1.2) (129.2) 10,810

METAL (1.7) (174.2) 10,067

OIL & GAS (1.1) (104.3) 9,017

BSE IT 0.9 55.3 6,477

Dow Jones 0.4 48.9 13,993NASDAQ 0.9 28.7 3,194

FTSE 0.6 35.5 6,264

Nikkei (1.8) (203.9) 11,153

Hang Seng 0.2 38.2 23,215

Straits Times 0.3 8.5 3,270

Shanghai Com 0.6 13.9 2,432

INFY 0.4 0.2 $52.4

WIT 1.7 0.2 $9.5IBN (1.1) (0.5) $43.5

HDB 0.6 0.2 $38.4

Advances 763 436

Declines 1,397 1,072

Unchanged 799 70

BSE 2,519

NSE 12,477


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3QFY2013 Result Review

Sun Pharmaceuticals (CMP-`744, Target:-/Upside :-)

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) reported a much higher-than-

expected 3QFY2013 performance. Its net sales reported a 33.0% yoy growth. The

Adj. net profit grew by 31.9% yoy, driven by a higher-than-expected improvement

in sales and a higher-than-expected expansion in the OPM, which in at 44.2% V/s

expectation of 40.6%. However, on account of the stocks rich valuation, we

FY2013E 10,111 42.6 2,993 28.9 22.3 25.7 5.2 15.3 6.5

FY2014E 12,563 42.6 3,086 29.8 19.2 25.0 4.4 11.7 5.0

M&M (CMP:`883/ TP:`1,019/ Upside: 15%)

Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) reported slightly lower-than-expected bottom-line

performance for 3QFY2013 primarily due to the contraction in EBITDA margins

led by sequential decline in net average realization. The top-line registered a

strong growth of 28.5% yoy (9.8% qoq) to`10,774cr; however it was lower than

our expectations of`11,070cr largely due to the sequential decline in net average

realization in the AS (1% qoq) and farm equipment segment (FES, 1.3% qoq). The

top-line growth on a yoy basis was driven by a robust volume (17.5% yoy) and net

average realization growth in the AS (22.5% yoy). Total volumes, however, posted

a growth of 10.9% yoy (10.8% qoq) as tractor sales witnessed a decline of 1.6%

yoy on account of weak domestic demand. The EBITDA margins contracted 96bpyoy (16bp qoq) to 11.2% owing to raw-material cost pressures, which as a

percentage of sales increased 153bp yoy (97bp qoq) to 75.9%. As a result,

bottom-line came in at`836cr, a growth of 26.3% yoy; however it was down 7.3%

qoq largely due to absence of dividend income from the subsidiaries. The bottom-

line benefitted from the reduced tax rate on account of higher R&D spends.

We broadly retain our top-line and EBITDA margin estimates for FY2013/14.

However our earnings estimates are revised slightly upwards to factor in the lower

tax-rate going ahead as guided by the management. We expect AS to drive the

total volume growth of the company led by the success of the new launches

(XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton) in the utility vehicle (UV) segment. We expecttractor volumes to recover in FY2014 and clock a growth rate of 8% after posting

a decline of 4% in FY2013. At`883, MM is trading at 13.7x FY2014E earnings.

Meanwhile, MM has announced that it will acquire BAE Systems 26% stake in the

joint venture, Defence Land Systems India (DLSI) for an undisclosed amount. MM

already holds 74% stake in DLSI. The stake would be acquired through MMs

100% subsidiary, Mahindra Defence Systems Ltd. The JV was incorporated in 2009

with the purpose of supplying artillery howitzers and anti-mine vehicles to the

Indian armed forces. MM has so far invested `50cr in the JV. The JV reported aloss of ~`24cr in FY2012. We would await more clarity from the management on

this front.


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FY2013E 40,060 11.5 3,255 55.3 24.5 16.0 3.6 9.3 1.0

FY2014E 46,301 11.7 3,787 64.3 23.8 13.7 3.0 7.5 0.8

Hindalco (CMP:`109/ TP: -/ Upside :-)

Hindalcos reported lower than expected performance both on the top line and

bottom-line front. Hindalcos net sales grew 3.0% yoy to `6,790cr (below our

estimate of `7,199cr) mainly on account of lower than expected volumes. In

aluminium segment, both alumina and aluminium production fell by 5.0% yoy

each to 326kt and 139kt respectively. The downstream sales stood at 59kt.

Aluminium segment net sales declined by 0.9% yoy to `2,215cr mainly due to

lower production at the Belgaum refinery due to lack of bauxite availability. In

copper segment, copper cathode production decreased by 4.3% yoy to 84kt

whereas CCR production declined by 3.7% yoy to 37kt. However, the Copper

segment net sales increased by 5.5% yoy to`4,661cr.

On the operating front, aluminium segment EBIT decreased by 33.4% yoy to

`206cr due to decrease in realizations coupled with increase in fuel and power

costs. Nevertheless, Copper segment EBIT however improved by 4.3% yoy to

`225cr. Overall, Hindalcos EBITDA declined by 18.6% yoy to`582cr and EBITDA

margin slipped 228bp yoy to 8.6% during 3QFY2013. Interest expenses increased

substantially by 113.0% yoy to `169cr on the back of new bonds raised during

1HFY2013. Other income was also higher by 93.2% yoy to`174cr. The company

reported an exceptional item of`144cr related to some write-backs. Consequently,

adjusted net profit declined by 35.8% yoy to `289cr (below our estimate of

`404cr).

The company aims to start the Mahan smelter by April 2013 while it is in the

process of commissioning Utkal refinery by March 2014. At current aluminium

prices, we anticipate Mahan smelter to make loss during FY14 as it will not be

able to commence coal production from the Mahan coal block until atleast 18

months in our view.

FY2013E 79,148 9.4 2,868 15.0 8.8 7.3 0.6 6.9 0.7

FY2014E 89,258 9.0 3,024 15.8 8.6 6.9 0.6 6.2 0.6

(CMP:`446/ TP:`516/ Upside: 16%)

Canara Bank reported subdued operating performance, as its pre-provisioning

profit declined by 3.8% yoy, which was in-line with our expectations. Asset quality

pressures continued for the bank during the quarter, as slippages remained

elevated, which resulted in 24.9% yoy increase in provisioning expenses and hence

the bank witnessed 18.9% yoy decline in its bottom-line.

During

3QFY2013, the banks advance book remained almost flat on a yoy basis, while


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deposits grew at a subdued pace of 2.7% yoy. Current deposits grew by 3.4% yoy,

while the saving deposits grew by 8.4% yoy. Calculated CASA ratio for the bank

improved by 24bp sequentially to 25.1%. Sequentially, the banks yield on

advances came in 8bp lower to 11.1%, which resulted in 17bp sequential fall in

reported NIMs. Non-interest income (excluding treasury) witnessed a decline of

4.4% yoy, on back of lower recoveries from written off accounts and de-growth inCEB income. During 3QFY2013, the bank witnessed continued asset quality

pressures, as slippages, on an absolute basis, remained elevated at `1,314cr,

(though lower sequentially considering slippages of `1,922cr in 2QFY2013 and

`1,497cr in 1QFY2013). However, recoveries/upgrades came in at `217cr

compared to`662cr in 2QFY2013 and `657cr in 1QFY2013. Hence, gross and

net NPA levels for the bank increased sequentially by 8.6% and 12.4%,

respectively. As of 3QFY2013, the gross NPA ratio stood at 2.8%, higher by 19bp

sequentially, while the net NPA ratio stood at 2.4%, higher sequentially by 23bp

from. PCR dipped sequentially by 202bp to 61.0%. Additionally, the bank

restructured `857cr worth of accounts during the quarter (of which around 50%

came from 3 chunky accounts in the steel sector), which was higher than `610cr

restructured in 2QFY2013, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to

`14,501cr.

At the current market price, the stock trades at cyclically

moderate valuation of 0.8x FY2014E ABV vs. eight-year average of 1.1x and

range of 0.7-1.4x.

.

FY2013E 10,828 2.1 2,868 64.7 481.0 0.7 13.2 6.9 0.9

FY2014E 12,005 2.2 3,560 80.4 542.8 0.8 14.7 5.5 0.8

Cadila Healthcare (CMP-`791, Target:-, Upside :-)

Cadila Healthcare reported below expected numbers for 3QFY2013, except on the

sales front. The companys sales for the quarter were just-in-line with estimates at

`1,561cr.On the operating front, the gross and operating margins came below

expectations. This along with, a higher tax expense during the quarter resulted in

net profit coming in a tad lower than expectations. Overall, the Adj. net profit

came in at`103cr, a dip of 31.0%. Management expects the company to be US$3bn by 2015.We recommend

FY2013E 6,148 15.3 504 24.6 18.4 30.2 5.2 18.6 2.8

FY2014E 7,386 18.0 808 39.5 25.1 18.8 4.3 12.9 2.3

(CMP:`219/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Bharat Forge (BHFC) reported disappointing performance for 3QFY2013 led by

severe weakness in the domestic as well as the export markets which resulted in avolume decline of 32.4% yoy (19.1% qoq). For 3QFY2013, standalone revenue

posted a significant decline of 28.5% yoy (22.5% qoq) to `673cr led by 22.1%

(9.3% qoq) and 33.2% yoy (33.5% qoq) decline in domestic and export revenues


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respectively. BHFC witnessed significant decline in revenues across all the

geographies with the key markets of India, US and Europe experiencing a decline

of 24%, 24.2% and 42.4% respectively. The net average realization however,

registered a growth of 6.1% yoy as it benefitted from the higher share of

machining component. On the operating front, margins contracted 424bp yoy

(124bp qoq) to 21.2% which was below our estimates of 23.3% primarily onaccount of lower utilization levels (~50% in domestic operations). The company

also initiated production cuts in an attempt to reduce inventories and align

production levels with the demand environment. Hence operating profit and net

profit registered a sharp decline of 40.5% (26.8% qoq) and 53.9% yoy (48.5%

qoq) respectively.

BHFC also posted a disappointing performance in its wholly owned overseas

subsidiaries (wos) with top-line registering a decline of 2.2% yoy. BHFC posted a

net loss of `6cr at wos as against a profit of `1cr in 3QFY2012. Even the

subsidiary in China posted a net loss of`12cr during the quarter. The subsidiaries

performance continues to be impacted due to the lower utilization levels caused bydownturn in the heavy truck market in China and decline in demand in Europe. At

`219, the stock is trading at 9.5x FY2014 earnings.

FY2013E 6,754 15.5 436.5 18.7 18.5 11.7 2.0 5.9 0.9

FY2014E 7,565 15.7 539.0 23.1 19.7 9.5 1.7 4.9 0.7

Gujarat State Petronet (CMP:`70 / TP: -/ Upside: -)

Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL) reported disappointing 3QFY2013 results. Total

operating revenues decreased by 2.8% yoy to`266cr mainly due to decline in

transmission volumes, partially offset by higher tariffs. Transmission volumes for

3QFY2013 decreased by 16.0% yoy to 27.56mmscmd whereas transmission

tariffs increased by 15.5% yoy to `1/scm. EBIDTA also decreased by 4.9% yoy

to`239cr mainly due to higher operating expenses. Depreciation expenses rose by

3.8% yoy to`48cr. Tax rate declined marginally to 33.0% in 3QFY2013 compared

to 33.9% in 3QFY2012. Hence, PAT decreased by 5.7% yoy to`119cr.

FY2013E 1,079 91.8 493 8.8 17.9 8.0 1.3 3.7 3.4

FY2014E 1,034 91.9 474 8.4 15.0 8.3 1.2 3.7 3.4

BGR (CMP:`235/TP: -/Upside: -)

For 3QFY2013, BGR Energy's (BGR) top-line growth came in flat yoy at `805cr.

The 22% yoy decline in revenue from the Capital Goods segment at `59cr (`75cr

in 3QFY2012) was offset by a 2.4% yoy growth in revenue from the Construction

and EPC segment at`746cr (`729cr in 3QFY2012).


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On the operating front, the EBITDA margin contracted by 259bp yoy to 13.7%,

mainly on account of a 289bp yoy contraction in margin of the Construction and

EPC segment. Interest cost grew by 9% yoy to`50cr (owing to elevated interest rate

scenario and enhanced working capital requirements). Consequently, the net profit

declined by 24% yoy to `41cr.

FY2013E 3,567 11.8 178 24.6 30.7 9.6 1.4 8.6 1.0

FY2014E 4,357 10.9 194 26.8 26.3 8.8 1.2 8.1 0.9

NCC (CMP:`41 / TP: 44 - Upside: 7%)

For 3QFY2013, NCC posted poor performance on the revenue front; however

higher other income due to asset sale and lower tax expense help boost thebottom line growth. On the top line front, NCC reported a decline of 6.3% yoy to

`1,184cr, which was significant lower than our estimate of `1,427cr. On the

EBITDAM front, the companys EBITDA margins stood at 7.2% (down 116bp

sequentially), which were below our estimate of 8.4%. This was mainly on back of

slower-than-expected execution during the quarter. Interest cost came in at`99cr a

decline of 7.6% on a yoy basis. On the bottom line level, NCC reported PAT of

`11cr (was in line with our estimate of`11cr) against a loss of 9cr in 3QFY2012

owing to higher other income and lower tax expense. The current outstanding

order book of NCC stands at `18,799cr, with order inflow of `3200cr till date.

FY2013E 5,863 8.1 79 3.1 3.2 13.3 0.4 7.0 0.6

FY2014E 6,576 8.2 105 4.1 4.2 10.0 0.4 6.6 0.5

Subros (CMP:`28/ TP:`35/ Upside: 26%)

Subros posted better-than-expected results for 3QFY2013 driven by a strong

volume growth of 30.7% yoy (41.1% qoq) leading to a 28.6% yoy (17.1% qoq)growth in the top-line. The volumes during the quarter were boosted by the festival

demand and also due to the low base of last year. The 3QFY2012 volumes were

impacted due to the strike at one of its largest customer, Maruti Suzuki. The

EBITDA margin jumped 346bp yoy to 10.3% primarily due to the operating

leverage benefits. On a sequential basis too, it expanded by 77bp. Hence,

operating profit grew by 94% yoy (26.6% qoq) to `33cr. Led by strong operating

performance, the net profit stood at`6cr as against`2cr in 3QFY2012 and`3r in

2QFY2013. At `28 the stock is trading at 5.5x FY2014E earnings.


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FY2013E 1,296 9.8 20 3.4 7.2 8.3 0.6 4.2 0.4

FY2014E 1,476 9.8 30 5.0 10.1 5.5 0.5 3.8 0.3

Cravatex (CMP: `401/ TP: `545/ Upside: 36%)

Cravatex reported poor set of numbers for 3QFY2013. Top-line plunged by 42.6%

yoy to `49cr on a consolidated basis on account of order lumpiness in the same

quarter previous year. Net sales from International segment and domestic segment

fell significantly by 68% (due to high base effect) and 39% yoy. The contribution

from the domestic sales has increased from 83% in 3QFY2012 to 89% in

3QFY2013. On the operating front the EBITDA dip by 32.7% yoy to `4cr. However

the EBITDA margins expanded by 109bp yoy mainly on account of 52.2% lower

raw material cost. On the segmental front, the EBIT margin for the domestic

segment contracted by 20bp yoy while the international segment reported a

margin of 5.7%, higher by 203bp yoy. The company reported a bottom-line of`1.4cr, low by 52.3% yoy.

FY2013E 228 7.6 7 28 23.9 14.2 2.7 7.1 0.5

FY2014E 308 7.7 12 45 31.1 8.8 2.1 5.0 0.43QFY2013 Result Preview

ONGC (CMP: `313/TP: -/ Upside: -)

ONGC is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the

companys top line to increase by 6.5% yoy to `19,294cr. On the operating front,

EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 946bp yoy to 51.5%. The bottom line is

expected to increase by 34.6% yoy to `4,843cr.

FY2013E 144,089 32.8 24,508 28.6 17.0 10.9 1.8 5.3 1.6FY2014E 152,165 32.7 26,125 30.5 16.4 10.3 1.6 4.6 1.4

DRL (CMP-`1855, Target:-, Upside :-)

DRL is expected to post a top-line de-growth of 2.5% to `2,700cr, on the back of

base impact. The company is expected to see strong traction in its Indian and

Russian formulation businesses as well. The company is expected to post an OPM

of 20.7%, down from 31.4%. On the net profit front, the company is expected to

post a net profit of `339cr, a de-growth of 33.9% over the last corresponding

period.


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FY2013E 10,696 20.7 1,42083.7 22.4 22.2 4.3 15.4 3.2

FY2014E 11,662 21.0 1,57692.9 20.8 20.0 3.6 13.4 2.8

JP Associates (CMP:`73 / TP:`100 / Upside: 37%

We expect Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) to post modest top-line growth of 13.3%

yoy to`3,288cr for the quarter. We expect C&EPC revenue to growth 12.4% yoy to

`1,390cr. On the cement front, we expect JAL to post revenue of `1,663cr

volume of 4.0mt with realization of `4,158/tonne for the quarter. We expect the

company to post blended EBITDA margin of 25.9%, registering a decline of 136bp

for the quarter. The bottom line is expected to be at `144cr, registering a yoy

decline of 29.7% for the quarter.

FY2013E 13,842 26.9 778 3.7 6.2 20.0 1.2 9.6 2.6

FY2014E 15,863 26.4 970 4.6 7.3 16.0 1.1 8.8 2.3

Britannia Industries (CMP:`465/TP:584:/Upside:26%)

Britannia Industries is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. Topline is

expected to grow by 18.6% yoy to`1,480cr. OPM is expected to decline by 114bp

yoy to 5.4%. Net Profit is expected to grow by 6.8% yoy to `58cr.

.

FY2013E 5,627 4.9 219 18.3 39.1 25.5 9.3 18.6 0.9

FY2014E 6,581 5.7 295 24.7 42.7 18.9 7.1 13.6 0.8

Hexaware (CMP:`82 / TP:`118 / Upside: 44%)

Hexaware is slated to announce its 4QCY2012 results today. We expect the

company to post revenue decline of 1.3% qoq to US$91.6mn, majorly because ofa change in project scope and deliverables from a large client which is amongst

companys top-10 clients. In rupee terms, revenues are expected to come in at

`495cr, down 2.4% qoq. EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 520bp qoq to

16.4%. PAT is expected to come in at `60cr.

FY2013E 1,941 20.8 321 10.7 25.3 7.6 1.9 4.5 0.9

FY2014E 2,118 19.0 321 10.7 22.0 7.6 1.6 4.2 0.8


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Sadbhav Engineering (CMP:`122 / TP:`168 / Upside: 38%)

We expect a subdued performance from Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) for

3QFY2013. On the top-line front, SEL is expected to report a muted revenue

growth of 4% yoy to`753cr. EBITDA margin is expected to witness a dip of 10bp

yoy to 10.3%. On the earnings front, the company is expected to post a dip of9.8% yoy to`38cr.

FY2013E 2,344 10.6 108 7.2 13.0 17.0 2.0 8.9 0.9

FY2014E 2,804 10.7 131 8.7 13.5 14.0 1.8 7.7 0.8

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Net sales 3,202 3,258 (2) 2,983 7

EBITDA 795 816 (3) 804 (1)

EBITDA margin (%) 24.8 25.0 26.9

Net profit 158 205 (23) 128 23

Net sales 19,863 18,124 10 19,788 0

EBITDA 10,434 11,051 (6) 8,289 26

EBITDA margin (%) 52.5 61.0 41.9

Net profit 5,327 6,741 (21) 5,897 (10)

Net sales 8,017 6,646 21 7,649 5

EBITDA 1,573 1,003 57 1,509 4

EBITDA margin (%) 19.6 15.1 19.7

Net profit 271 274 (1) (54) (598)

Net sales 51,241 47,917 7 48,464 6

EBITDA (170) 3,703 (105) 2,914 (106)

EBITDA margin (%) (0) 8 6

Net profit (694) 2,725 (125) 2,327 (130)


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Net sales 4,875 4,355 12 4,606 6

EBITDA 1,707 1,742 (2) 2,112 (19)

EBITDA margin (%) 35.0 40.0 45.9

Net profit 931 1,018 (9) 909 2

Net profit 1,023 809 26 1,126 (9)

Net sales 11,341 10,594 7 10,663 6

EBITDA 1,263 1,581 (20) 1,109 14

EBITDA margin (%) 11.1 14.9 10.4Net profit 597 632 (6) 543 10

Net sales 57,870 58,824 (2) 56,860 2

EBITDA 196 3,710 - 5,388 -

EBITDA margin (%) 0.3 6 9

Net profit (550) 3,140 - 5,035 -

Net sales 17,008 15,349 11 14,573 17

EBITDA 5,092 4,547 12 2,862 78

EBITDA margin (%) 29.9 29.6 19.6

Net profit 4,170 4,038 3 3,078 35

Net sales 111,189 98,272 13 105,791 5

EBITDA 1,766 11,158 (84) 11,562 (85)

EBITDA margin (%) 1.6 11 11

Net profit (1,878) 2,488 (175) 9,611 (120)

Net sales 2,199 2,822 (22) 2,612 (16)

EBITDA 1,526 2,261 (32) 1,935 (21)

EBITDA margin (%) 69.4 80.1 74.1

Net profit 1,427 1,859 (23) 1,679 (15)


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Net sales 32,684 32,964 (1) 33,867 (3)

EBITDA 2,595 1,717 51 2,310 12

EBITDA margin (%) 7.9 5.2 6.8

Net profit (193) (667) (71) (391) (51)

Net sales 577 514 12 540 7

EBITDA 106 107 (1) 82 30

EBITDA margin (%) 18.4 20.8 15.2

Net profit 76 57 33 47 62

Economic and Political News

Irda uncomfortable with investment flow into insurance from tax havens India developing Agni-VI ballistic missile Energy prices need to gradually align with intl mkt: Chaturvedi Foodgrain output over 250mn tonne despite drought: Pawar

Corporate News

HCC-Samsung wins`866cr Delhi Metro contract Starbucks, Tata Coffee open roasting plant in Karnataka Indo-German JV company Schott Kaisha launches new plant Telcos continue removing inactive SIMs, 26mn users lost in DecSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


12/21

Date Company

February 11, 2013 ONGC, Tata Power Co., Jaiprakash Asso., Britannia, Hexaware, Sadbhav Engg., Punj Lloyd, GIPCL, Dishman Pharma

February 12, 2013 Jindal Steel, Power Grid Corpn, SAIL, HPCL, Motherson Sumi, CESC, HT Media

February 13, 2013Coal India, NMDC, IOC, Tata Steel, BPCL, Unitech, Madras Cements, PTC India, Orchid Chemicals, Finolex Cables,Madhucon Proj

February 14, 2013 St Bk of India, Tata Motors, GAIL, DLF, Dr Reddy's, LIC Housing Fin., Suzlon Energy, CRISIL, HDIL, Monnet Ispat, PageIndustries, India Cements, FAG Bearings, Simplex Infra, IVRCL Infra, Patel Engg., Siyaram Silk Mills, TVS Srichakra, S.Kumars Nationwide

February 15, 2013 GlaxoSmith Con

February 16, 2013

February 17, 2013

February 18, 2013

February 19, 2013 GSK Pharma

February 20, 2013 Nestle

February 21, 2013 ABB

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

February 11, 2013 5:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Jan 6.30 --

5:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Jan (1.90) --

February 12, 2013 3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Jan 2.70 2.70

11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Dec (0.10) 1.10

February 14, 2013 7:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Feb 9 366.00 360.00

12:30PM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 4Q P 0.40 0.20

February 15, 2013 7:45PM US Industrial Production % Jan 0.26 0.20

February 20, 2013 8:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Feb A (23.90) --

3:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Jan (12.10) --

February 21, 2013 2:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Feb A 55.70 --

8:30PM US Existing home sales Millions Jan 4.94 4.92

February 26, 2013 8:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Feb 58.60 --

8:30PM US New home sales Thousands Jan 369.00 --

February 27, 2013 3:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 4Q P -- --

February 28, 2013 3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Jan 2.20 --

7:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 4Q S (0.10) --

March 1, 2013 3:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Feb 50.80 --

6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Feb 50.40 --March 7, 2013 5:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Mar 7 0.50 0.50

6:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Mar 7 0.75 --


February 11, 2013

Market Outlook


13/21



Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly G D P trends

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 :M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends


Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

3. 5

5. 7

9. 0

7. 5

11.2

8. 5

7. 68 .2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3 5. 5 5. 3

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

11.0

12.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

2Q

FY13

(%)

2. 7

1 .0

4. 3

(2.8) (1.3)

2. 5

(2.0) (0.1)

2. 0

(0.7)

8. 3

(0.1)(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

Nov

-12

(%)

7 .7

6 .9

7 .4

7 .7

7 .5 7 .67 .6 7 .5

8 .0 8 .1

7 .5

7 .2

6 .2

6 .4

6 .6

6 .8

7 .0

7 .2

7 .4

7 .6

7 .8

8 .0

8 .2

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

M

ar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

O

ct-12

Nov-12

(%)

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Jan-12

Feb-12

M

ar-12

Apr-12

M

ay-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

O

ct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

M fg . PM I Services PM I

(30.0)

(15.0)

0 .0

15.0

30.0

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Exp orts yoy g ro wth Im ports yo y growth( %)

8.00

7.00

4.25

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)


14/21

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 136 - 2,637 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 19.4 16.7 4.1 3.5 22.6 22.5 1.9 1.6

United Phosphorus Buy 128 170 5,648 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 8.5 7.5 1.2 1.1 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 299 323 5,111 2,983 3,477 16.1 16.1 18.5 21.6 16.2 13.9 4.7 3.6 32.9 29.1 1.6 1.5

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 85 97 4,299 13,066 14,503 11.5 11.8 13.0 14.5 6.6 5.9 1.3 1.1 21.0 19.4 0.5 0.5

Ashok Leyland Accumulate 25 28 6,625 12,910 14,836 8.8 9.6 1.5 2.2 16.8 11.2 2.2 2.0 9.3 13.4 0.6 0.5

Automotive Axle# Neutral 363 - 548 934 1,103 10.2 10.7 24.5 34.3 14.8 10.6 1.9 1.7 13.2 16.9 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,062 - 59,673 20,775 23,889 18.5 19.0 107.6 126.4 19.2 16.3 7.9 6.3 45.8 42.8 2.5 2.1

Bharat Forge Buy 226 278 5,263 6,754 7,565 15.5 15.7 18.8 23.2 12.1 9.8 2.1 1.8 18.5 19.7 0.9 0.8

Bosch India* Accumulate 9,023 9,570 28,332 9,973 11,320 17.8 18.0 396.2 455.7 22.8 19.8 4.3 3.6 18.8 18.2 2.5 2.1

CEAT Buy 109 163 372 4,822 5,403 8.2 8.3 29.8 40.8 3.6 2.7 0.5 0.4 14.5 17.0 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Accumulate 122 131 10,387 6,016 7,026 12.7 14.4 5.8 7.8 20.9 15.6 3.1 2.7 15.4 18.2 1.4 1.2

FAG Bearings* Buy 1,420 1,807 2,360 1,715 1,939 17.6 18.4 127.7 150.6 11.1 9.4 2.2 1.8 21.7 21.1 1.1 0.9

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,759 1,923 35,117 23,990 27,038 13.8 14.6 105.8 120.2 16.6 14.6 6.7 5.4 44.3 41.0 1.2 1.0

JK Tyre Buy 116 165 478 7,517 8,329 6.6 6.6 37.2 41.3 3.1 2.8 0.6 0.5 18.8 17.8 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 895 998 54,979 40,035 46,272 11.5 11.6 54.4 62.1 16.5 14.4 3.7 3.1 24.2 23.2 1.2 1.0

Maruti Neutral 1,625 - 46,954 42,304 51,088 7.5 8.7 64.4 92.9 25.3 17.5 2.8 2.4 11.6 14.9 0.9 0.7

Motherson Sumi Neutral 191 - 11,240 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 23.8 18.1 5.0 4.1 22.9 24.7 0.6 0.5

Subros Buy 27 35 160 1,296 1,476 9.8 9.9 3.4 5.0 8.0 5.3 0.6 0.5 7.2 10.2 0.4 0.4

Tata Motors Buy 289 337 76,945 190,883 217,164 12.8 13.1 35.5 42.5 8.1 6.8 2.1 1.7 30.2 27.6 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 40 47 1,915 7,019 7,827 6.0 6.3 4.3 5.3 9.5 7.6 1.5 1.3 16.4 18.0 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Reduce 654 573 13,859 7,790 9,653 4.5 7.8 8.7 22.1 75.2 29.6 5.2 4.6 7.1 16.5 1.8 1.4BGR Energy Neutral 237 - 1,707 3,567 4,357 11.8 10.9 24.6 26.8 9.6 8.8 1.4 1.3 30.7 26.3 0.9 0.8

BHEL Neutral 206 - 50,421 47,801 43,757 18.0 17.1 24.1 20.8 8.6 9.9 2.5 2.2 32.9 23.6 0.9 1.0

Blue Star Buy 174 238 1,564 2,748 2,896 4.4 5.6 6.8 9.3 25.6 18.7 3.5 3.1 14.5 17.6 0.7 0.6

Crompton Greaves Buy 104 129 6,691 12,136 13,790 3.8 6.3 3.3 6.9 31.6 15.2 1.8 1.7 5.8 11.5 0.6 0.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 39 49 322 2,802 3,074 9.5 9.8 7.7 10.9 5.1 3.6 0.5 0.4 9.6 12.1 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 57 75 1,455 6,909 7,723 6.2 7.2 5.4 8.4 10.5 6.7 1.2 1.1 17.0 22.8 0.3 0.3

LMW Reduce 2,101 1,992 2,367 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 14.7 12.7 2.4 2.2 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.4

Thermax Neutral 581 - 6,924 5,529 5,798 9.0 9.6 27.1 30.3 21.4 19.2 3.7 3.3 18.6 18.2 1.1 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 11, 2013


15/21



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,345 - 25,259 11,012 12,333 21.1 20.9 77.0 80.3 17.5 16.8 3.3 3.0 19.5 18.7 2.0 1.7

Ambuja Cements Neutral 200 - 30,851 10,210 11,811 26.0 25.7 11.2 12.6 17.9 15.9 3.8 3.4 20.3 20.7 2.6 2.2

India Cements Neutral 87 - 2,674 4,293 4,666 17.7 18.1 8.6 10.8 10.1 8.1 0.8 0.7 7.5 9.0 1.0 0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 134 - 1,643 2,171 2,544 22.5 22.5 21.6 23.2 6.2 5.8 1.1 1.0 19.0 17.8 0.9 1.1

Madras Cements Neutral 237 - 5,647 3,814 4,045 28.8 27.1 18.3 18.7 13.0 12.7 2.3 2.0 19.4 17.0 2.1 1.9

Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,509 - 15,708 5,678 6,251 29.0 28.6 288.1 334.0 15.7 13.5 4.4 3.4 31.7 28.4 2.2 1.8

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,922 - 52,686 20,466 23,017 23.3 24.3 100.0 117.1 19.2 16.4 3.5 3.0 19.6 19.5 2.5 2.3Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 229 268 1,205 20,466 23,017 22.5 22.5 24.4 27.0 9.4 8.5 1.1 1.0 12.3 12.1 0.2 0.2

Consolidated Co Neutral 15 - 273 2,262 2,522 5.9 6.3 0.9 1.6 16.2 9.5 0.4 0.4 2.7 4.6 0.4 0.4

IRB Infra Buy 122 164 4,048 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 7.2 6.8 1.2 1.1 18.3 17.0 3.2 3.5

ITNL Accumulate 199 225 3,858 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 7.6 6.9 1.2 1.1 17.0 16.3 2.7 2.8

IVRCL Infra Neutral 32 - 976 4,249 6,897 7.8 8.2 0.3 3.4 103.1 9.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.4 0.8 0.5

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 74 100 16,332 13,842 15,863 26.9 26.4 3.7 4.6 20.1 16.1 1.2 1.1 6.2 7.3 2.6 2.4

Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,496 1,788 91,996 60,666 69,525 10.6 11.2 71.9 85.0 20.8 17.6 3.2 2.8 14.5 15.2 1.7 1.5

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 42 - 1,085 5,947 6,569 8.5 8.6 3.1 4.1 13.6 10.3 0.4 0.4 3.3 4.2 0.6 0.6

Punj Lloyd Neutral 51 - 1,684 11,892 13,116 9.0 9.0 1.8 3.2 28.0 15.8 0.6 0.6 2.0 3.5 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 119 168 1,799 2,344 2,804 10.6 10.7 7.2 8.7 16.6 13.7 2.0 1.8 13.0 13.5 1.1 1.0

Simplex Infra Buy 171 251 846 6,882 8,032 9.1 9.1 23.2 31.3 7.4 5.5 0.7 0.6 9.1 11.2 0.5 0.4

Unity Infra Buy 38 59 282 2,180 2,455 13.7 13.4 13.3 15.0 2.9 2.5 0.3 0.3 12.5 12.5 0.5 0.5

Financials

Allahabad Bank Buy 149 188 7,440 6,509 7,264 2.7 2.8 28.2 33.5 5.3 4.4 0.7 0.7 13.8 14.7 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 103 - 5,786 4,795 5,475 3.0 3.0 21.8 21.9 4.7 4.7 0.8 0.7 15.4 13.8 - -Axis Bank Buy 1,461 1,753 68,221 15,959 18,660 3.2 3.2 119.2 139.0 12.3 10.5 2.3 2.0 20.3 20.1 - -

Bank of Baroda Neutral 773 - 31,784 15,284 18,032 2.5 2.6 109.6 137.7 7.1 5.6 1.0 0.9 15.5 17.1 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 343 380 19,686 12,793 14,823 2.3 2.4 49.5 65.1 6.9 5.3 1.0 0.9 13.6 16.0 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 56 - 3,316 3,720 4,268 2.9 2.8 10.9 13.0 5.2 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.2 16.9 - -

Canara Bank Accumulate 460 516 20,385 10,828 12,005 2.1 2.2 64.7 80.4 7.1 5.7 1.0 0.9 13.2 14.7 - -

Central Bank Neutral 77 - 5,698 7,158 8,217 2.4 2.6 13.1 20.1 5.9 3.9 0.9 0.7 10.3 14.3 - -

Corporation Bank Buy 414 517 6,138 4,835 5,570 2.0 2.2 105.0 99.8 4.0 4.2 0.7 0.6 17.5 14.8 - -

Dena Bank Buy 105 132 3,658 3,090 3,462 2.7 2.7 25.6 24.6 4.1 4.3 0.7 0.6 19.2 15.9 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 11, 2013


16/21



Financials

Federal Bank Accumulate 517 557 8,842 2,667 2,920 3.2 3.2 49.1 51.4 10.5 10.1 1.4 1.3 13.9 13.1 - -

HDFC Neutral 811 - 125,071 7,446 8,923 3.5 3.5 32.2 38.5 25.2 21.1 5.1 4.6 35.4 32.6 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 642 - 152,229 21,724 26,578 4.3 4.3 28.7 36.1 22.4 17.8 4.3 3.6 20.7 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,145 1,404 131,676 22,317 26,217 2.9 3.0 72.0 84.6 15.9 13.5 2.0 1.8 14.9 15.9 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 101 122 12,874 8,196 9,305 1.9 2.1 15.4 22.3 6.6 4.5 0.7 0.6 10.7 14.1 - -

Indian Bank Buy 188 245 8,062 5,902 6,563 3.2 3.2 41.3 43.2 4.5 4.4 0.8 0.7 18.4 16.8 - -

IOB Buy 76 88 6,073 7,231 8,369 2.4 2.5 10.2 20.2 7.5 3.8 0.6 0.5 7.4 13.4 - -J & K Bank Neutral 1,329 - 6,442 2,830 2,910 3.6 3.6 234.8 197.4 5.7 6.7 1.3 1.1 25.1 18.0 - -

LIC Housing Finance Buy 272 328 13,747 1,799 2,255 2.3 2.4 20.3 27.3 13.4 10.0 2.1 1.8 16.9 19.7 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 306 - 8,924 6,360 7,004 2.6 2.8 48.1 59.4 6.4 5.2 0.8 0.7 12.1 13.5 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 878 1,053 29,780 19,202 22,040 3.2 3.4 146.8 167.9 6.0 5.2 1.1 0.9 17.6 17.5 - -

South Ind.Bank Buy 27 34 3,561 1,583 1,789 3.0 2.9 3.5 4.1 7.7 6.6 1.3 1.1 19.1 17.7 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 2,327 2,600 156,159 60,677 69,712 3.3 3.3 224.3 257.3 10.4 9.0 1.8 1.5 17.6 17.7 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 130 157 7,795 6,673 7,644 2.9 3.0 32.0 27.6 4.0 4.7 0.8 0.7 22.0 16.4 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 68 - 4,510 5,235 6,086 2.3 2.4 12.0 14.9 5.7 4.6 0.9 0.8 12.0 13.5 - -

Union Bank Buy 233 286 12,809 10,006 11,558 2.8 2.8 36.4 47.0 6.4 5.0 0.9 0.8 14.6 16.6 - -

United Bank Buy 68 87 2,467 3,498 3,858 2.5 2.8 15.1 21.6 4.5 3.2 0.6 0.5 12.5 16.1 - -

Vijaya Bank Accumulate 56 62 2,768 2,342 2,763 1.9 2.1 8.0 10.9 7.0 5.1 0.7 0.7 10.1 12.6 - -

Yes Bank Accumulate 508 576 18,195 3,364 4,260 2.8 3.0 36.3 42.6 14.0 11.9 3.1 2.6 24.6 23.6 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 4,602 - 44,144 11,198 13,319 15.9 15.7 122.1 147.1 37.7 31.3 12.7 10.0 37.7 35.7 3.9 3.2

Britannia Buy 466 584 5,569 5,627 6,581 4.9 5.7 18.3 24.7 25.5 18.9 9.3 7.1 39.1 42.7 0.9 0.7

Colgate Neutral 1,356 - 18,436 3,120 3,588 20.3 21.1 38.4 45.1 35.3 30.1 32.8 26.3 104.6 97.0 5.7 4.9Dabur India Neutral 132 - 23,007 6,196 7,183 16.3 16.8 4.5 5.5 29.3 24.1 12.1 9.4 43.4 44.0 3.7 3.2

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,777 - 15,884 3,084 3,617 15.3 15.5 101.2 118.3 37.3 31.9 11.4 9.2 33.5 31.9 4.8 4.0

Godrej Consumer Neutral 741 - 25,223 6,386 7,743 15.7 17.0 20.8 27.1 35.6 27.3 7.6 6.3 23.7 26.4 4.1 3.4

HUL Neutral 457 - 98,737 25,350 28,974 13.3 13.5 15.1 17.0 30.2 27.0 24.1 17.2 85.7 74.3 3.7 3.2

ITC Neutral 304 - 239,654 29,148 34,191 35.7 36.1 9.4 11.1 32.4 27.4 10.8 8.9 35.9 35.7 7.9 6.7

Marico Neutral 219 - 14,122 4,747 5,402 13.6 13.6 6.3 7.8 34.5 28.0 7.1 5.7 26.0 22.6 3.0 2.6

Nestle* Neutral 4,703 - 45,343 8,487 10,081 21.2 22.1 113.0 142.5 41.6 33.0 25.0 17.2 70.5 61.6 5.4 4.4


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 11, 2013


17/21



FMCG

Tata Global Neutral 145 - 8,958 7,272 7,998 9.1 9.5 6.9 8.1 21.1 17.8 2.2 2.1 8.9 9.8 1.2 1.0

IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 669 765 46,452 25,325 28,476 21.7 20.7 51.0 52.8 13.1 12.7 3.5 2.9 26.8 22.9 1.7 1.5

Hexaware* Buy 81 118 2,392 1,941 2,118 20.8 19.0 10.7 10.7 7.5 7.5 1.9 1.6 25.3 22.0 0.9 0.8

Infosys Neutral 2,790 - 160,200 40,746 44,283 28.9 28.8 162.6 172.9 17.2 16.1 4.0 3.4 23.5 21.3 3.3 2.9

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 161 184 1,801 1,881 1,987 17.9 17.4 18.5 19.4 8.7 8.3 1.3 1.1 14.8 13.6 0.6 0.5

KPIT Cummins Buy 110 140 2,126 2,234 2,477 15.8 15.2 10.9 12.8 10.1 8.6 2.2 1.7 22.2 20.6 0.9 0.8Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 119 126 13,954 7,711 8,467 21.6 19.8 8.7 11.3 13.6 10.5 3.2 2.5 30.6 23.7 1.4 1.2

Mindtree Accumulate 774 868 3,205 2,357 2,580 21.0 19.3 84.4 86.8 9.2 8.9 2.4 1.9 26.8 21.7 1.1 0.9

Mphasis& Accumulate 359 396 7,547 5,531 5,874 17.6 17.5 35.4 37.7 10.1 9.5 1.5 1.3 14.7 13.5 0.9 0.7

NIIT Buy 26 36 433 1,048 1,161 9.1 10.9 4.1 6.2 6.4 4.3 0.7 0.6 10.3 14.1 0.2 0.2

Persistent Accumulate 523 550 2,091 1,297 1,433 25.6 24.1 46.5 54.0 11.3 9.7 2.1 1.7 18.5 18.0 1.3 1.1

TCS Accumulate 1,388 1,465 271,564 62,954 70,871 29.0 28.9 71.6 79.1 19.4 17.5 6.4 5.2 33.2 29.7 4.1 3.6

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 990 1,105 12,655 6,789 7,609 21.0 19.6 95.8 1 10.7 10.3 8.9 2.5 2.0 24.3 22.3 1.9 1.6

Wipro Accumulate 405 429 99,762 43,514 47,304 20.1 19.4 26.6 27.7 15.3 14.6 3.0 2.6 19.7 17.9 2.0 1.7

Media

D B Corp Accumulate 239 266 4,385 1,583 1,787 23.9 25.4 11.9 14.5 20.2 16.5 4.0 3.4 21.4 22.4 2.7 2.3

HT Media Buy 99 121 2,329 2,111 2,272 15.0 15.2 7.4 8.3 13.5 12.0 1.5 1.3 11.3 11.4 0.7 0.6

Jagran Prakashan Buy 106 125 3,354 1,511 1,698 23.2 23.4 6.4 7.3 16.5 14.5 4.1 3.7 25.9 26.6 2.4 2.1

PVR Neutral 261 - 755 820 1,307 17.3 17.3 11.2 17.8 23.4 14.7 1.1 1.0 9.7 10.8 1.0 0.6

Sun TV Network Neutral 467 - 18,416 1,942 2,237 77.2 75.5 17.6 19.1 26.6 24.5 6.4 5.8 25.8 25.2 9.0 7.8

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 466 - 10,548 10,746 13,982 30.8 31.1 43.3 55.5 10.8 8.4 1.1 1.0 11.4 12.6 3.1 2.4Coal India Accumulate 344 368 217,283 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 14.2 12.9 4.2 3.4 33.1 29.1 2.3 2.0

Electrosteel Castings Buy 24 34 818 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 1.8 2.6 13.4 9.1 0.4 0.2 3.6 5.1 0.6 0.5

Hind. Zinc Buy 125 149 52,964 12,002 13,759 49.7 50.8 14.7 16.4 8.5 7.7 1.7 1.4 21.1 19.8 2.5 1.8

Hindalco Neutral 113 - 21,702 79,148 89,258 9.4 9.0 15.0 15.6 7.6 7.3 0.6 0.6 8.8 8.4 0.7 0.6

JSW Steel Neutral 835 - 18,635 39,072 40,493 16.5 18.2 82.4 90.3 10.1 9.3 1.0 0.9 10.7 10.7 0.9 0.9

MOIL Neutral 248 - 4,162 933 954 46.9 45.5 25.8 26.1 9.6 9.5 1.5 1.4 16.7 15.1 2.0 1.9

Monnet Ispat Buy 248 344 1,578 2,501 3,264 22.2 24.6 41.8 55.2 5.9 4.5 0.6 0.5 11.3 13.4 1.7 1.2

Nalco Neutral 47 - 12,036 6,630 8,357 11.4 14.5 2.1 3.3 22.0 14.3 1.0 1.0 4.6 6.9 1.1 1.0

NMDC Buy 150 198 59,471 11,209 12,525 78.4 78.3 18.5 20.6 8.1 7.3 2.0 1.6 27.0 24.6 3.4 2.8


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 11, 2013


18/21



Metals & Mining

SAIL Neutral 83 - 34,469 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 8.7 7.1 0.8 0.7 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0

Sesa Goa Accumulate 174 183 15,135 2,412 3,911 30.8 33.1 29.6 31.8 5.9 5.5 0.9 0.8 16.3 15.4 7.7 4.8

Sterlite Inds Neutral 105 - 35,152 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 6.2 5.8 0.7 0.6 11.6 11.2 0.8 0.7

Tata Steel Buy 391 463 37,941 145,725 154,108 8.3 9.5 22.0 44.5 17.7 8.8 0.9 0.8 4.9 9.3 0.5 0.5

Sarda Buy 126 148 453 1,442 1,494 19.0 19.1 29.2 31.7 4.3 4.0 0.5 0.5 12.3 12.0 0.7 0.6

Prakash Industries Buy 44 73 593 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 2.7 2.1 0.3 0.2 11.4 12.8 0.4 0.3

Godawari Power andIspat Buy 101 143 320 2,342 2,470 13.7 15.3 27.7 33.8 3.6 3.0 0.4 0.3 10.9 11.4 0.6 0.5

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 320 383 61,123 17,394 17,034 76.4 72.3 60.8 55.1 5.3 5.8 1.1 0.9 21.9 17.0 2.7 2.3

GAIL Neutral 336 - 42,576 46,652 54,142 15.7 15.7 34.0 35.3 9.9 9.5 1.7 1.5 18.5 16.8 0.7 0.5

ONGC Neutral 320 - 273,690 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 10.4 9.9 1.8 1.6 18.3 17.2 1.6 1.5

Reliance Industries Neutral 871 - 285,230 362,700 380,031 8.9 8.9 68.1 71.5 12.8 12.2 1.4 1.2 12.4 11.8 0.8 0.7

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 312 - 4,007 3,128 3,707 13.2 11.7 22.8 23.5 13.7 13.3 4.1 3.7 33.2 29.2 1.2 1.0

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 253 - 3,539 3,213 3,643 23.3 23.5 24.3 25.7 10.4 9.8 2.4 2.0 25.0 22.1 1.2 1.0

Petronet LNG Buy 147 179 11,018 32,210 41,362 6.1 5.8 15.4 15.6 9.6 9.4 2.5 2.1 29.1 24.1 0.4 0.3

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 71 - 4,015 1,079 1,034 91.8 91.9 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.5 1.4 1.2 17.9 15.0 3.4 3.5

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 75 95 1,421 1,490 1,714 16.2 17.1 7.4 9.5 10.2 7.9 2.8 2.1 30.7 30.2 1.1 0.9

Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate 187 208 5,433 5,463 6,279 15.0 15.0 12.4 14.0 15.0 13.3 2.0 1.7 18.8 17.8 1.6 1.4

Aventis* Neutral 2,261 - 5,207 1,482 1,682 17.5 16.6 82.9 87.8 27.3 25.8 4.3 3.4 16.3 14.8 3.3 2.8

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 816 926 16,707 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 32.7 44.8 25.0 18.2 5.5 4.4 23.7 26.6 3.1 2.5

Cipla Accumulate 394 419 31,639 8,151 9,130 25.8 24.8 20.2 21.6 19.5 18.2 3.5 3.0 19.4 17.6 3.7 3.2

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,894 - 32,158 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 22.6 20.4 4.7 3.9 22.4 20.8 3.3 2.9

Dishman Pharma Buy 104 145 836 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 10.4 14.5 10.0 7.1 0.8 0.8 8.7 11.0 1.3 1.1

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,075 - 17,579 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 27.3 25.2 7.9 7.0 20.1 26.3 5.8 5.1

Indoco Remedies Buy 61 78 563 642 784 14.2 15.2 5.7 7.8 10.7 7.8 1.3 1.1 12.9 16.4 1.1 0.9

Ipca labs Buy 483 559 6,098 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 16.2 13.0 3.9 3.1 26.7 26.4 2.3 1.9

Lupin Accumulate 594 655 26,566 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.1 31.1 22.8 19.1 5.3 4.2 25.8 24.7 3.3 2.7

Ranbaxy* Neutral 436 - 18,435 12,046 11,980 16.0 15.8 37.3 32.1 11.7 13.6 4.5 3.6 45.3 29.7 1.6 1.5

Sun Pharma Neutral 749 - 77,419 9,902 12,313 42.6 42.6 26.7 29.1 28.0 25.7 5.3 4.5 20.7 19.1 7.2 5.6

Power

GIPCL Accumulate 68 78 1,033 1,523 1,568 30.3 30.3 5.4 11.5 12.7 5.9 0.7 0.6 5.6 11.3 1.1 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 11, 2013


19/21



Power

NTPC Accumulate 148 163 122,157 72,809 81,951 23.0 23.7 12.0 13.4 12.4 11.1 1.5 1.4 12.5 12.9 2.3 2.2

Real Estate

Anant Raj Neutral 75 - 2,218 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 8.9 5.9 0.6 0.5 6.3 8.9 4.6 3.5

DLF Neutral 270 - 45,822 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 28.2 20.1 1.8 1.7 6.4 8.7 7.1 5.9

HDIL Neutral 72 - 3,031 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.2 2.7 0.3 0.2 8.8 9.4 3.1 2.3

MLIFE Accumulate 409 446 1,668 786 888 26.3 26.7 31.0 36.3 13.2 11.3 1.3 1.2 10.1 10.8 2.4 2.1

TelecomBharti Airtel Neutral 320 - 121,426 80,521 87,160 30.5 30.5 6.4 10.4 50.0 30.8 2.3 2.2 4.6 7.0 2.4 2.1

Idea Cellular Neutral 108 - 35,762 22,087 23,927 26.6 27.7 2.9 3.9 36.9 27.7 2.5 2.3 6.9 8.4 2.2 2.0

Rcom Neutral 76 - 15,583 21,087 22,067 31.8 31.9 2.6 4.0 28.8 18.9 0.4 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.3

zOthers

Abbott India Accumulate 1,388 1,590 2,950 1,629 1,886 11.8 13.3 60.8 79.5 22.9 17.5 4.7 3.9 22.0 24.4 1.6 1.3

Bajaj Electricals Accumulate 189 217 1,887 3,497 3,968 6.6 7.6 9.8 15.5 19.3 12.2 2.5 2.1 12.7 17.4 0.5 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Buy 411 495 520 460 596 16.4 16.2 34.7 45.0 11.8 9.1 2.9 2.3 27.7 27.8 1.2 1.0

Cravatex Buy 408 545 105 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 10.9 9.0 2.6 2.0 23.7 22.7 0.5 0.4

CRISIL Neutral 964 - 6,768 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 28.1 24.1 12.7 10.2 50.9 46.9 6.5 5.4

Finolex Cables Accumulate 55 61 843 2,304 2,552 9.9 9.1 8.2 10.1 6.8 5.5 0.9 0.8 13.7 14.7 0.3 0.3

Force Motors Buy 434 550 566 2,027 2,299 4.6 5.1 35.3 50.0 12.3 8.7 0.5 0.5 3.9 5.3 0.1 0.1

Goodyear India Accumulate 313 360 722 1,494 1,607 6.4 7.8 23.9 33.0 13.1 9.5 2.1 1.8 16.5 20.1 0.3 0.2

Greenply Industries Sell 408 309 985 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 13.8 9.3 2.3 1.8 16.8 21.0 0.8 0.7

Hitachi Neutral 139 - 320 905 1,025 4.8 6.0 7.7 12.4 18.2 11.3 1.7 1.5 9.9 14.4 0.4 0.4

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate 2,616 2,842 2,313 1,809 2,117 5.5 7.5 84.9 135.3 30.8 19.3 3.3 2.9 11.3 16.0 1.2 1.0

Styrolution ABS India* Accumulate 651 744 1,145 1,059 1,116 8.5 9.5 36.0 42.0 18.1 15.5 2.6 2.3 15.4 16.0 1.1 1.0ITD Cementation Buy 208 334 240 1,455 1,630 12.4 12.6 29.8 40.5 7.0 5.1 0.6 0.5 8.2 9.8 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 146 - 2,349 1,228 1,443 9.0 10.9 3.9 6.4 37.5 22.8 3.7 3.4 10.1 15.6 2.4 2.0

MCX Accumulate 1,340 1,440 6,834 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 21.5 18.6 5.9 5.1 27.5 27.4 9.4 7.8

MRF Neutral 13,160 - 5,582 13,030 14,405 10.3 10.6 1,418.1 1,677.1 9.3 7.9 1.6 1.4 19.1 18.7 0.5 0.5

Page Industries Accumulate 3,221 3,602 3,592 836 1,023 20.2 20.6 105.6 133.4 30.5 24.1 15.5 10.9 59.3 53.2 4.4 3.5

Relaxo Footwears Buy 729 887 875 989 1,148 10.7 11.7 41.8 55.5 17.5 13.1 4.0 3.1 25.5 26.3 1.0 0.9

Sintex Industries Buy 61 79 1,913 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.5 3.9 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 282 366 264 1,043 1,149 12.3 12.9 65.7 73.3 4.3 3.8 0.8 0.7 21.0 19.6 0.5 0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 11 - 321 6,765 7,393 18.1 18.0 6.4 7.5 1.7 1.4 0.1 0.1 6.1 6.7 0.6 0.6


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 11, 2013


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zOthers

SpiceJet Neutral 43 - 2,100 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 12.0 8.1 17.4 5.5 - - 0.5 0.4

TAJ GVK Buy 67 108 420 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.5 7.4 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.5

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 306 379 472 782 818 16.5 17.0 61.8 65.4 5.0 4.7 0.7 0.7 15.7 14.7 0.2 0.2

TTK Healthcare Buy 496 643 385 374 425 7.9 9.5 24.1 32.7 20.6 15.2 19.7 22.5 0.9 0.7

TVS Srichakra Buy 247 322 189 1,461 1,625 6.9 8.2 24.6 53.7 10.0 4.6 1.3 1.1 12.9 24.9 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,926 - 25,192 10,289 11,421 12.8 12.8 26.0 45.3 74.1 42.5 3.4 3.1 5.8 7.6 2.8 2.5

Vesuvius India Neutral 334 - 678 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 13.5 11.6 2.0 1.8 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on February 08, 2013


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 11, 2013


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market outlook, 11th february, 2013

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