commodities weekly tracker 11th february 2013

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  • 7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker 11th February 2013

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    Commodities & Currencies

    Weekly Tracker

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    ContentsReturns

    Non Agri Commodities

    Currencies

    Agri Commodities

    Non-Agri Commodities

    Gold

    Silver

    Copper

    Monday | February 11, 2013

    Currencies DX, Euro, INR

    Agri Commodities

    Chana

    Black Pepper

    Turmeric Jeera

    Soybean

    Refine Soy Oil & CPO

    Sugar

    Kapas

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | | February 11, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    *Weekly Performance for March contract; Chana, Turmeric and Kapas - April 2013 contract; Mentha Oil and CPO February 2013 contract

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Monday | February 11 2013

    GoldWeekly Price Performance Spot gold prices ended with mild firmness by 0.02 percent. The yellow metal

    touched a weekly high of $1,684.5/oz and closed at $ 1,666.89/ounce on

    Friday.

    On the MCX, Gold March contract ended 2.86 percent higher taking cues

    from strength in the spot gold and depreciation in the rupee. Gold prices on

    the MCX closed at Rs.30,795/10 gms on Friday after touching a weekly high

    of Rs.30,890/ 10gms.

    Factors that influenced gold prices

    Gold prices gained initially after US Federal Reserve continued its bond

    buying program until jobs data improves substantially. Further, upward

    revision in the US nonfarm payrolls in the November and December 2012

    supported an upside in the yellow metal.

    Strength in the DX along with dovish statement by the European Central

    Bank President that the euro region might witness recovery in 2013 butthere are more downside risks to the economy which erased the earlier

    gains in the gold prices.

    Outlook

    In the coming week, we expect gold prices to witness strength owing to

    positive global market sentiments. However, strength in the DX along with

    worries of Euro zone region might cap gains in the gold prices. In the

    domestic markets depreciation in the Indian rupee act as a supportive factorfor the gold prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Gold : Support $1,657/1,646 Resistance $1,681/1695.

    Buy MCX Gold April between 30,630-30,600, SL-30,480, Target -30,940.

    (CMP: 30,507)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    SilverWeekly Price Performance

    Spot silver declined 1.23 percent week on week. The white metal

    touched a weekly low of $ 31.26/oz and closed at $ 31.39 per oz on

    Friday.

    In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices fell 0.5 percent and closed at

    Rs. 58,212/kg on Friday and touched a weekly low of Rs. 57,966/ kg.

    Fall in the spot silver and weakness in most of the base metals packweighed on the prices of silver on MCX. However, depreciation in the

    Indian rupee cushioned fall in the silver prices on MCX.

    Factors that influenced silver prices

    Silver prices declined taking cues from fall in the base metals pack

    coupled with strength in the DX. Renewed worries of the Euro zone

    .

    However, positive data from the US and China cushioned fall in thesilver prices.

    Holdings in the ishares silver trust increased and stood at 10,494.5

    tonnes a rise of 0.7 percent as against 10,420.8 tonnes as on February

    02nd 2013

    Outlook Worries over the Euro zone region and Chinese market remaining

    closed for a week on the back of Lunar New Year festivals is expected

    to exert a downside pressure on the silver prices. Strength in the DX isalso expected to act as a bearish factor for the silver prices.

    In the domestic markets depreciation in the Rupee might cushion fall in

    the MCX Silver prices.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Silver : Support $ 31.07/30.73 Resistance $31.85/32.45

    Sell MCX Silver March Between 58,280-58,320, SL-58,701, Target -

    57,750/57,300

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    CopperWeekly Price Performance Copper prices fell 0.4 percent week on week. Copper prices on LME touched a

    weekly low of $ 8,176.75 per tonne and closed at $8,276.5per tonne on Friday.

    In the domestic markets, MCX copper gained 0.5 percent and closed at Rs. 446.5

    per kg on Friday. Depreciation in rupee supported an upside in the copper prices

    on MCX.

    Copper Inventories LME copper inventories gained 6.4 percent week on week and stood at 399,825

    tonnes as against 374,200 tonnes on February 01, 2013.

    Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 0.2

    percent and stood at 196,699 tonnes in the last week.

    Factors that influenced copper prices

    Po itica turmoi create a ter corruption a egations over Spain Prime Mariano

    Rajoy and uncertainty ahead of Italian elections led prices to witness sellingpressure. Strength in the DX added to the losses in the copper prices.

    Optimism that the US Federal Reserve will continue with the bond buying

    program until jobs data improves in the nation cushioned fall in the LME copper

    prices. Additionally, favorable import and CPI data from China erased some of the

    losses. But subdued activity ahead of the Lunar Year festival restricted gains in the

    copper prices.

    Outlook

    Copper prices in the coming week is expected to remain subdued ahead of week

    log holidays in China on account of Lunar New Year celebrations. This might

    reduce the trade participation. Strength in the DX might exert a downside

    pressure on the Copper prices. However, favorable imports data from the China

    in the last week is likely to cushion fall in the prices.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Buy MCX Copper February between 444-443, SL-439, Target -451

    LME Copper: Support $8,140/7,690 Resistance $8,460/8,650 (CMP: $8,291.25)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    Crude OilWeekly Price Performance On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices declined around 2.1 percent.

    On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.7 percent and closed at

    Rs.5,144/bbl on Friday after touching a low of Rs.5,070/bbl in the last week.

    Depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented further fall in the crude oil prices.

    US Energy Department Facts and Figures

    As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories rose lessthan expected by 2.6 million barrels to 371.70 million barrels for the week

    ending on 1st February 2013. Gasoline stocks gained by 1.7 million barrels to

    234.0 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles fell by 1.0 million barrels

    to 129.60 million barrels for the last week.

    Factors that influenced crude oil prices

    75.0

    80.0

    85.0

    90.0

    95.0

    100.0

    105.0

    110.0

    4,4004,5004,6004,7004,8004,9005,0005,100

    5,2005,3005,4005,5005,600

    Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

    uropean en ra an res en ar o rag s a emen a s reng n e

    Euro as a currency, can affect the economic growth in the region which led toexpectations of fall in demand for the fuel.

    Decline in total petroleum demand in US by 3.4 percent to 18.1million barrels a

    day along with fall in gasoline consumption by 1 percent to 8.42 million barrels a

    day for the week ending on 1st February 2013.

    Strength in the DX.

    However, sharp downside in the crude oil prices were cushioned on the back of

    less than expected rise in US crude oil inventories.

    Outlook

    Crude oil prices are expected to trade on a negative note on the back of decline

    in gasoline and petroleum demand coupled with rising US crude oil inventories.

    However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned as a result of favorable

    economic data from US and Euro region.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Nymex Crude Oil: Support: $94.60/93.45 Resistance $96.20/97.40 (CMP: 95.6)

    Sell MCX Crude Feb btwn 5170-5180, SL-5242, Target -5090/5030. (CMP: 5143)

    MCX cr ude oi l (Rs/bbl) NY MEX Cr ude Oi l ($ /bbl)

    320

    330

    340

    350

    360

    370

    380

    390

    Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance US Dollar Index (DX) gained 1.5 percent w-on-w. The index settled at 80.316 levels

    on Friday after touching a high of 80.35 levels in last week.

    The Indian Rupee depreciated and ended 0.8 percent on weekly basis.

    Factors that influenced movement in the DX

    The index settled higher due to risk aversion created after political uncertainty in

    Spain and Italy. However, index erased some of the gains after US Federal Reserve

    said that they will continue with their bond buying program until jobs markets

    improves substantially.

    However, after dovish statement by European Central Bank President in its policy

    meeting held on Feb 07, 2013 demand for low yielding currency witnessed a rise.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

    Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.8 percent w-on-w taking cues from weak preliminary

    GDP data projected by the government to 4.6percent between October 2012 and

    March 2013 as compared to 5.4 percent in the first half of the fiscal year. The rupeehad however appreciated in most part of the week owing to continued foreign

    institutional inflows along with $2.1 billion share sale in the state run power utility

    NTPC Ltd. which was 1.7 times oversubscribed.

    FII Inflows

    For the month of Jan 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 17210.80crores ($3234.48

    million) as on 08th February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.

    39,269.80 crores ($7,293.80 million) till 08th February 2013

    Outlook

    We expect rupee to depreciate as the Indian government downward revises the

    growth forecast of the nation for the second half of 2012. Strength in the DX might

    also cause depreciation in the rupee. However, continued foreign institutional

    inflows might cap depreciation in the rupee.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    USD/INR MCX February Support 53.25/52.75 Resistance 54.30/54.8 (CMP: 53.82)

    US Dollar Index: Support 79.5/79.1 Resistance 80.65/81 (CMP: 80.13)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    EuroWeekly Price Performance The Euro depreciated by 2 percent in the last week .

    The currency touched a weekly low of 1.3352 and closed at 1.3363 against

    dollar on Friday.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

    Political uncertainty created after corruption allegations on Spanish Prime

    Minister Mariano Rajoy. Further, European Central Bank President in its policymeeting held on February 07, 2013 said that the region might witness growth

    in 2013 but there are downside risks to the economy. This created renewed

    worries over debt concerns of the region. Further, the ECB President raised

    worries over strength in the currency, the Euro. Additionally, strength in the

    DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency.

    News

    Spanish Unemployment Change rose to 132 K in the month of January ascompared to -59K in December. European policy makers kept the minimum

    bid rate steady at 0.75% .

    German Factory Orders increased to 0.8% in the month of December as

    compared to -1.8% in November. The Industrial production for the region also

    witnessed a rise to 0.3% in December as against a decline of 0.2% in

    November. German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 16.8 billion Euros in

    December as against a previous surplus of $14.6billion a month ago. Retail

    Sales of the Euro region fell 0.8 percent in December as against a decline of0.1 percent in November.

    Outlook

    We expect the Euro to trade with a positive bias on signs of recovery in the

    nation and thereby hopes of curtailing the debt crisis of the region. Weakness

    in the DX is also expected to add to the gains in Euro.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.324/1.304 Resistance 1.372/1.357(CMP: 1.338)

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    Chana

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Increasing supplies in the domestic markets and higher output estimates exerted

    downside pressure on the Chana prices which settled 1.5% lower w-o-w.

    Chana acreage up by 5.4% in 2012-13

    Chana sowing is 5.4% higher at 94.78 lakh ha compared to previous year. Chana

    acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 lakh ha, In

    Maharashtra, Chana acreage is up at 11.12 lakh ha vs normal area of 10.6 lakhha. While in AP it is up at 7.27 lakh ha, up by 28%. Compared to previous year. (S

    Record Chana Output in 2012-13 Second Advance Estimates

    According to second advance Estimates released on 8th Feb 2013, Total pulses

    output for 2012-13 has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to

    previous year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses

    , , .

    Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48mn tn while Rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared

    with the final estimates of 2011-12.

    There has been a sharp increase in the Chana output estimates. on the back of

    5.45 increase in acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its

    2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its

    first advance estimates Chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn.

    Outlook

    Chana Futures may remain under downside pressure in the coming week as the

    agriculture ministry has estimated bumper Chana output for 2012-13 season.

    Also arrivals shall gain momentum in the coming days and is expected to

    increase the supplies in the markets.

    Weekly Strategy

    Sell NCDEX CHANA April between 3445-3475, SL -3545, Target - 3350 / 3320

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    Black Pepper

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Pepper March Futures declined last week on reports of improvement in arrivals of

    the fresh crop. Prices have gained sharply over the last few weeks on back of low

    stocks in the domestic markets coupled with a delay in harvesting of the fresh

    crop due to lack of skilled labor. Good winter demand coupled with demand from

    the upcountry markets also supported the prices. The Food Safety and Standards

    Authority of India sealed the pepper stored in six warehouses at Kochi of about8,000 tonnes leaving no stocks on the exchange warehouses. The Spot as well as

    March Futures settled 1.01% and 3.4% lower w-o-w.

    Indian Pepper is being offered at $8,000/tn (c&f, Europe). Vietnam , Malaysia and

    Indonesia Austa variety are quoted at $7,000/tn and Brazil is quoted at $6,600/tn.

    Averages daily arrivals stood at 30 tn while offtakes stood at 28 tn last week.

    -

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research

    According to market sources, Pepper production is expected around 63,000 tn in2013, while the IPC projects Indias 2013 availability at 70,000 tn.

    Global updates

    Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in

    2011. Vietnam pepper exports during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt. Pepper

    production from Vietnam decreased to 1 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011.

    Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against

    32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.

    Outlook

    Pepper Futures is expected to decline from higher levels due to higher production

    as well as improvement in the arrivals of the fresh crop. Traders expect arrivals to

    gain momentum in the coming days. However, low stocks due to lock of pepper in

    NCDEX accredited warehouses may support the prices . A delay in harvesting may

    damage some berries. There is good demand from the upcountry markets.

    Weekly Strategy

    Sell NCDEX Pepper March between 36300-36400, SL -37550, Tgt - 34600/34450.

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Turmeric

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    Turmeric Futures opened the week on a bullish note on concerns over the output

    of the crop as well as demand from the stockists. However, prices corrected from

    higher levels on account of huge carryover stocks and commencement of harvest

    of the fresh crop. Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.

    The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them.

    Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode.

    According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

    Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot settled 0.25% higher while

    Futures settled 0.55% lower w-o-w.

    Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

    Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

    well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

    Monday | February 11, 2013

    Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

    October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

    as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

    Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

    Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last

    year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported

    at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.

    Outlook

    Turmeric prices may trade with a positive bias this week. Good demand from

    stockists at lower levels coupled with as well as demand from the upcountrymarkets are expected to push up the prices. Traders expect export orders also to

    start in the coming weeks. Arrivals of good quality crop may also boost prices.

    However, huge carryover stocks may cap a sharp upside in the prices.

    Commencement of harvest of the early crop may also keep a check on the prices.

    Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Turmeric April between 6130-6160, SL -5950, Target - 6430 / 6460.

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Jeera

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    Jeera Futures declined sharply last week on reports of commencement of arrivals

    of the fresh crop. Sowing in Gujarat, the major jeera growing state was reported

    at 3.244 lk ha till Jan 2013. Last 3 years average sowing is around 3.189 lk ha.

    Stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags.

    The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.25% and 5.06% lower w-o-w.

    Effect of higher production offset by higher exports Indias 2012 Jeera output is estimated at 40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher than

    29 lakh bags in 2011, a rise of 37.9%. However, increase in the exports due to

    supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the

    prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

    Global supply concerns to boost Jeera exports

    Monday | February 11, 2013

    Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

    xpor s o eera rose rom , n n pr o , n n pr . arge

    for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011.

    According to market sources, about 75% of export targets have been achieved.

    Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

    between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

    have stopped shipments. There are some export enquiries at lower levels.

    International Scenario

    According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while

    production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and

    around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

    Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,950-2,975/tn (c&f).

    Outlook

    Jeera is may correct from higher levels on commencement of arrivals of the new

    crop. However, sharp downside may be limited as exporters may buy at lower

    levels. Farmers may not also sell their stocks at such low prices.

    Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Jeera Mar between 13400-13450, SL -14000, Target - 12600/12500.

    0

    1

    1

    2

    2

    3

    3

    Production,

    in

    La

    kh

    Tonnes

    Production of Jeera in India

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Soybean

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    Weekly price performance

    Soybean futures declined in the early part of the week after the release of oil meal

    export figures which jumped 40 percent in January. However, prices declined

    sharply towards the week end as the USDA monthly report released on Friday

    pegged higher global end stocks. NCDEX March contract settled 0.65% lower w-o-w.

    Oil meal exports up 40 percent in January 2012

    Oil meal exports rose 40% to 7.68 lakh tn in January 2012. The export of oil meals,however declined by 18% to 36.79 lakh tn in the first 10 months of this fiscal.

    The country exported 25.36 lakh tn soybean meal in first 10 months compared to

    30.82 lakh tn in the same period last year which showing a decline of 17.72%.

    Oilseeds output down 1.1% , soybean and mustard up 3.2% & 11.52%

    According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at

    . mn n, own y . , e soy ean an mus ar see ou pu s pegge

    higher at 12.9 mn tn and 7.36 lakh tn.

    USDA pegs lower end stocks

    USDA raised its forecast of global 2012/13 soybean ending stocks above 60 mn tn ,

    up from 59.46 mn in January and settled 2.3% lower on Friday. Upward revision in

    Brazils soy output is offset by downward revision in the Argentina production.

    However, persistent dry, hot weather in much of Argentina is hurting 2012-13 crops

    as they enter crucial growth stages, and rains are needed to safeguard potential

    yields. Thus output may be revised down further.

    China, the world's largest soy buyer, imported 4.78 mn tn of soybeans in January,

    down 18.8 percent from 5.89 mn tn in December.

    Outlook

    Soybean complex might trade with downward bias initially on expectations of Rabi

    crop arrivals to commence soon. However, prices may again recover if dry weather

    conditions continue in Argentina raising concerns over crop yield.

    Strategy

    Sell NCDEX Soybean March between 3230-3260, SL -3340, Target - 3110 / 3090.

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    Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    Weekly price performance

    Edible Oil complex remained in the negative territory on account of weak

    Malaysian palm oil futures which declined on the back of record stocks of

    palm amid lower exports.

    Despite zero duty on Malaysian palm oil exports, overseas demand

    remained lower for Malaysian palm oil. CPO prices at MCX and at BMD settled

    0.1% and 1.2% lower respectively. AT NCDEX and CBOT, soy oil futures settled3.21% and 12.9% lower w-o-w.

    Global Scenario

    Malaysian palm oil product exports during January fell 7%to 1,458,475 tn

    from 1,568,510 to tn in December.

    Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer increased its export tax for crude

    pa m o o or e ruary rom . n e prev ous mon .

    There are reports that Indonesian province, East Kalimantan , may halt palmexpansion. Palm oil plantations now cover about 7 lakh ha of East Kalimantan

    and produce 2 mn tn of output each year.

    Domestic Scenario

    India is working to promote self-sufficiency in edible oil supply so that the

    country doesn't need to import to meet domestic demand.

    India raised the base import price of crude palm oil (CPO) by nearly 80% to

    $802 per tn as part of efforts to curb overseas purchases and protect

    domestic oilseed farmers.

    The government also set the base import price for crude soy oil at $1,190 per

    tn, up from $580 per tn. India's palm oil imports rose 27.4% on month at

    783,091 tn in December.

    Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

    Sell NCDEX Ref Soya Oil March between 703-707, SL -722, Target - 680 / 675

    Buy MCX CPO Feb between 442-446, SL -432, Target - 461 / 465

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    Sugar

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Sugar March contract declined sharply in the early part of last week on account of

    higher production and availability in the domestic markets and comparatively

    lower demand amid winter season. However, prices recovered towards the later

    part of the week on hopes of partial decontrol of sugar industry. ICE Raw sugar

    declined further on account of higher supplies of sugar in the global markets.

    India's Oct-Jan sugar output up 3 pct y/y Out of the estimated 24 mn tn sugar output for the season 2012-13, Indian 13.7

    mn tn in the first four months of the season beginning October 2012, up 3

    percent a year ago period.

    With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at

    30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5mln tn for 2012-13.

    Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

    India to decide on sugar decontrol before budget

    Food minister on Thursday said the government is likely to take a decision on

    decontrolling the sugar industry before the Budget. Food ministry has proposed

    dispensing with the regulatory release mechanism and abolishing the levy system.

    USDA boosted US 2012-13 sugar output

    The USDA on Friday boosted its domestic sugar supply forecast in 2012-13,

    projecting record production. U.S. sugar production in the current marketing year

    is pegged at 9.22 mn short tn, up from last month's estimate at 9.07 mn tn.

    If the forecast is realized, it will be a record high, exceeding the record 9.032million short tons harvested in the United States in 1999-2000.

    Outlook

    Sugar futures are expected to consolidate at the lower levels as markets may

    adopt a wait and watch policy expecting government to take decision levy sugar

    mechanism, one of the major reforms of sugar decontrol.

    Strategy

    NCDEX SUGAR March Trend Sideways- S2-2980 S1- 3020, R1-3120, R2-3190.

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    Kapas/Cotton

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Kapas futures continued with downward trend and settled 1.45% lower w-o-w on

    the back higher supplies and comparatively weak demand. ICE Cotton consolidated

    around 82 cents per pound levels after gaining sharply in the past few weeks.

    International cotton markets are although flooded with huge stocks of cotton, still

    prices were on an uptrend on expectations of higher Chinese imports and lower US

    cotton planting expectations for next season.

    Domestic Cotton Arrivals down 6.5 percent on year as on 20th Jan 2013

    Cotton supplies from the new crop in the domestic markets until Jan. 20 fell were

    down at 134 lakh bales, down from 144 lakh bales a year earlier.

    Cotton Advisory Board revised down production estimates

    The Cotton Advisory Board in January has estimated cotton production this season

    c o ep a a a es aga ns e prev ous es ma es n c o er

    at 334 lakh bales. Exports and domestic consumption has been revised upward to

    253 and 80 lakh bales respectively from 250 and 70 lakh bales estimated earlier..

    USDA estimates higher global end stocks

    The U.S. government on Friday nudged higher its global cotton stockpile forecast for

    2012/13 amid expectations that China, the world's largest textile market, will import

    even more fiber for its massive strategic supply.

    However, the government lowered US carryover by 3 lakh bales, or 6%, to 4.5 mn

    bales due to an increase of the same size in its export estimate to 12.5 million bales.

    Outlook

    Kapas prices may trade with upward bias during the week on account of bargain

    buying at lower levels. Also, firmness in the international markets amid lower US

    cotton planting intentions for 2012-13 may support an upside in the domestic

    cotton prices. However, sufficient supplies in the domestic markets and lower export

    demand expectations may pressurize prices.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 902-907, SL -870, Target - 955 / 960

    Source: Reuters * 2013 figs are as per Reuters survey

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 11, 2013

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