Marek Cierpiał-Wolan, PhD

Statistical Office in Rzeszów

TOWARDS COHERENT STATISTICAL SYSTEMS OF TRANSBORDER AREAS

CASE STUDY OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL EASTERN BORDER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

PRESENTATION PLAN

1. Towards coherent research system for transborder areas

2. The structure of comprehensive surveys

3. Comprehensive surveys - methodology and results

2

3

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES IN TRANSBORDER AREAS

INTEGRATION DISINTEGRATION

HIGHER INTENSITY OF NON-REGISTERED SOCIO-ECONOMIC PHENOMENA

DEEPENING FAILURES IN INFORMATION SYSTEMS(especially concerning transborder areas)

DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIALS

INCREASE IN INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OBJECTS

4

TOWARDS COHERENT RESEARCH SYSTEM FOR TRANSBORDER AREAS

Delimitationof transborder

areas

Monitoringof socio-economic

phenomena

Comprehensivesurveys

Transborder

metadatabaseMethodology

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Household surveye.g. tourism, quality of life

Survey at the EU’s borderson the territory of Poland

External borders Internal borders

Questionnaire surveyat the border

Traffic intensity survey Questionnaire surveyin the vicinity of the border

(e.g. shopping centres,service centres,petrol stations)

Questionnaire survey(seaports, airports, railway)

common questionnaire

COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS

Enterprise surveye.g. bussines tendency survey, financial health survey

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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSTRANSBORDER AREAS

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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSTYPOLOGY OF BORDER CROSSINGS

Border sections with particular countries are selected - within each of the section, the crossings whose participation in the movement of people is more than 1%.

Using Ward's method these crossings are grouped according to particular sections of the border into subsets with high internal similarity due to selected characteristics: size of total cross-border traffic, the percentage of foreigners crossing the border, the proportion of passenger cars in cross-border traffic of vehicles.

Border crossings for the survey are drawn within the groups.Choosing the border crossings, the geographical distance between the selected crossings is additionally included.

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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSQUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY AT THE BORDER

Survey of goods and services turnover at the European Union’s

external border

The purpose - expenses incurred by foreigners in Poland and the Poles abroad on the purchase of goods and services, purpose and duration of stay, frequency of crossing the border, etc.

The survey covers the turnover of goods not registered in customs documents.

It is conducted on a sample of about 1% (about 120 thousand people).

It is a non-frame survey (an elusive population).

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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSQUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY AT THE BORDER

The questionnaire survey is carried out in quarter periods, in selected days ofa week chosen from the total number of days in a given period (7 times in the quarter).

A stratified two-stage sampling is used• The strata were determined according to the days of the week as well as

border crossings and kind of traffic. • First, the days undergoing survey are drawn by simple random sampling

then, persons are drawn out of those who cross the border by systematic sampling.In case the selected person refuses to participate in the survey, the next person is surveyed.

The 24-hour traffic intensity of the target population was examined on the basis on the pilot survey to define representative survey intervals. For individual border crossings sampling intervals were determined taking into account the projected volume of traffic at individual crossings.

 

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SURVEY AT THE EUROPEAN UNION’S EXTERNAL BORDER

Expenses on the purchase of goods incurred by foreigners in Poland and Poles abroad who crossed the EU’s external border on the territory of Poland by countries in 2014

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

51.0

26.3

133.5

1,861.7

874.0

459.2

Foreigners Poles

millions USD

Countries:

Expenses:

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

01020304050

2.3

3.0

0.6

44.7

41.1

4.9

Foreigners expenses/export relation

Poles expenses/import relation

%

Countries:

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Expenses on the purchase of goods incurred by foreigners in Poland and Poles abroad who crossed the EU’s external border on the territory of Poland

SURVEY AT THE EUROPEAN UNION’S EXTERNAL BORDER

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Foreigners Poles

millions USD

Years

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EXPENSES OF FOREIGNERS IN POLAND AND POLES ABROAD WHO CROSSED THE EU’S EXTERNAL BORDER IN 2014

SPATIAL BREAKDOWN

Lubelskie Podlaskie Podkarpackie Warmińsko-mazurskie 0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.042.6

19.6

14.7

7.7

2.50.7 0.8

7.3

expanses-to-export ratio expanses-to-import ratio

%

Regions (NUTS 2)

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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSHOUSEHOLD SURVEY

The surveys covers expenses incurred by Poles and residents on the purchase of goods and services, purpose and duration of stay, frequency of crossing the border, booking of the trip, use of a tour operator or travel agency, number of residents not participating in tourism for personal purposes, etc.

The results will be used by the Central Statistical Office, the Polish National Bank, the Ministry of Sport and Tourism as well as for the needs of the balance of payments.

It is conducted on a sample of about 0.14%.(over 18 thousand households/13.5 million in whole country)

The questionnaire survey is carried out in quarter periods.

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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY - SAMPLE DESIGN

Households for the survey are selected at random from census sampling frame by two-step sampling with stratification on the first step (strata were defined by subregions and size classes of towns).

Strata which include border areas are divided into two parts: the border part (up to 30 km from the border) and the central part.

Units of the first step are census enumeration areas and units of the second step are dwellings (from each unit of the first step five dwellings are drawn).

Due to the nature of the survey half of the sample is allocated to the border part and the other half to the central part. Within each of these two parts the allocation is proportional to the number of households in the stratum.

495

565

625

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY - STANDARD PROCEDURE

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the population of people who travel abroad is a small subset of the population of all households in the border area - probability of selecting a household whose members travel abroad is small;

necessity of using a modified technique of collecting questionnaires, maintaining at the same time the principles of a representative selection of households for the survey;

the "random route" technique to collect questionnaires - when it is impossible to conduct the interview the interviewer goes to the next apartment to make an interview in accordance with the appropriate algorithm for the selection of subsequent flats, visiting a maximum of six households – why six?

COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS

RANDOM ROUTE TECHNIQUE FOR COLLECTING QUESTIONNAIRES

algorithm

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How is this number calculated?

The number of maximum searches has been determined on the basis of the number of vehicles crossing the border and the number of households in border units on LAU level 1 (powiat).

Based on registration numbers, the households which participated in trips were selected, then they were compared with the total number of households in the border units. (The analyses showed that households which cross the border make it 4 times a week on average).

COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS

RANDOM ROUTE TECHNIQUE FOR COLLECTING QUESTIONNAIRES

Th

ree

-pa

rt s

tru

ctu

reTraffic

intensity survey

Direct estimate

Modelling

Extrastatistical sources of information

and expertise

Final estimate of key

variables

Raking

DataBase

Final estimate of all variables

Constrained Least Squares

Method

Preliminaryweights

Finalweights

We

igh

ts c

alib

ratio

n

Questionnaire survey

in households

Questionnaire survey

(seaports, airports, railway)

Questionnaire surveyat the border and in the vicinity

of the border(e.g. shopping centres, service

centres, petrol stations)

SPECIAL PROCEDURE OF DATA PROCESSING

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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSRESULTS

Transborder balance of trade Share of transborder balance of tradein GDP

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSRESULTS

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

104.0

105.0

106.0

104.9

101,5

103.8104,3

101.9101.5

103.3

0.20

0.06

0.10

0.15

0.04

0.08

0.12

The rate of economic growth

Growth rate of GDP - without transborder balance of trade

Growth rate of GDP - pure share of transborder balance of trade

103,9

101,6

105,1

101,6

104,5

102,0

103,4

QUALITY OF LIFE PILOT SURVEY

Carried out on around 2000 households in Poland and Ukraine including

transborder areas.

Questionnaire - 96 questions on Likert scale.

Subjective assessment of life domains such as social, economic and

intellectual aspects of life, health, activity, community, preferences, prospects

and expectations.

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SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ASPECTS OF QUALITY OF LIFE SYNTHETIC INDICATORS

Selected objective indicators of quality of life

Average monthly gross wages and salaries Sold production of industry per 1 thous. population Average usable floor area of a dwelling per one inhabitant Registered unemployment rate Proportion of registered unemployed persons in population at

working age Population using wastewater treatment plants in % of total

population Proportion of waste recovered in waste generated Persons unemployed over 24 months per 1 thous. population Full-time and part-time paid teachers in terms of full-time

employment per 1 thous. population Percentage share of schools equipped with computers with the

Internet access Total nursery schools per 1 thous. population Total tertiary schools per 1 thous. population Total students per 1 thous. population Doctors and dental specialists per 1 thous. population Beds in general hospitals per 1 thous. population Nurseries and nursery wards per 1 thous. population Ascertained crimes per 1 thous. inhabitants Proportion of green areas in total area Total respiratory diseases per 100 thous. population Total deaths caused by neoplasms per 100 thous. population Deaths caused by circulatory system diseases per 100 thous.

population

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Subjective assessment of life domains

on Likert scale

Family life Financial situation Friendship Incomes Meeting basic needs Health Achievements General country situation Housing Neighbourhood Available goods and services Prospects Sex life Education level Leisure Job Children Marriage Safety

Polish households near Slovakian border

Polish households near Ukrainian border

Ukrainian households near Polish border

Polish and Ukrainian households in inner area

0,555 0,562 0,584 0,384

QUALITY OF LIFE - DISTORTION MEASURE

Formula

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Polish and Ukrainian households in inner area Ukrainian households along Polish border Ukrainian households along Polish borderPolish households along Slovakian border

Subjective Measure

Ob

ject

ive

Mea

sure

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SUMMARY OF THE METHODS

Frame Sampling Surveyed population

Research instrument

Household Survey Frame

Simple Random Sampling with Stratification

Sample survey Questionnaire

Internal / external border

No frame Systematic Sampling

Sample survey Questionnaire

Vicinity of the border No frame Purposive Sample survey Questionnaire

Border Traffic Survey - - Census survey Register

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Supranational and multidimensional nature and scale of transborder processes

– necessity for coherent research system

Multi-method survey – various sampling methods, research instruments and

techniques, surveyed population

Multi-stage estimation – combining various statistical and mathematical

procedures

Unexpected results of comprehensive surveys and possible use on local

regional, national and international level

Cooperation between countries (specification of the most important endo- and exogenous factors affecting the economy and regional development, standardization of methods and forms of monitoring and survey, etc.)

Creating a uniform information infrastructure of transborder areas – the base of knowledge on transborder areas.

CONCLUSIONS

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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where:

si - subjective unitarized synthetic index,

oi - objective unitarized synthetic index.

This measure takes values from 0 to 1. In the case of using unitarized indices for ranking units it has the following interpretation: it equals 0 if observed data is a perfect match with the model; it equals 1, otherwise.

 

It is based on unitarized subjective and objective indices of quality of life. Its construction allows one to measure the distance between observed data and the model.

DISTORTION MEASURE

COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS

RUSSIA

"Random route" technique for collecting questionnaires

In the case of households not taking part in travelling, the interviewer moves to another one and conduct a survey to the last (eighth) step and proceeds to the next starting point.

In order to maintain the randomness of sampling the interviewer should keep to the following four rules:

always to the right; always in a clockwise direction; always from the top to the bottom; always within the surveyed territorial unit.

PILOT SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

RAKING

B1 B2 B3

A1 x11 x12 x13

A2 x21 x22 x23

B1 B2 B3

A1 x11 x12 x13

A2 x21 x22 x23

CONSTRAINED LEAST SQUARES METHOD

Let x, w, c, D be a vector of initial weight, final weights, constraints and

variance-covariance matrix, respectively. The objective in least squares

problem with linear constarints is to provide a solution for minimizing a sum

of squares (w - x)T D (w - x) with respect to linear constarints Hw = c.Using method of Lagrange multipliers we obtain the solution o the form

w = x + D -1H’(HD -1H’) -1(c - Hx)

COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS – HOUSEHOLD SURVEY SAMPLE DESIGN

Approximately 1600 address points were drawn by the European Union's external border on the territory of Poland. Using of the method employed in most surveys, information on only one one-day trip to Russia, two one-day trips to Belarus and 23 one-day trips to Ukraine was obtained during the collection of questionnaires.

Standard procedureThe method used in most surveys consists in drawing units from a given frame including a reserve sample. In the course of interviews the interviewer goes only to the drawn points where he implements the interview. In a situation when the interview cannot be carried out in a given place, the interviewer returns to this place twice.