march madness bet constructor - dpennock.comdpennock.com/talks/bracketology-hackday-10-2007b.pdf ·...

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March Madness bet constructor Bet on any team to win any game Duke wins in Final 4 Bet “exotics”: Duke advances further than UNC ACC teams win at least 5 A 1-seed will lose in 1st round

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Page 1: March Madness bet constructor - dpennock.comdpennock.com/talks/bracketology-hackday-10-2007b.pdf · BRACKETOLOGY My Account How to Play: Bet on how far your favorite teams will advance

• March Madnessbet constructor

• Bet on any team towin any game– Duke wins in Final 4

• Bet “exotics”:– Duke advances

further than UNC– ACC teams win at

least 5– A 1-seed will lose in

1st round

Page 2: March Madness bet constructor - dpennock.comdpennock.com/talks/bracketology-hackday-10-2007b.pdf · BRACKETOLOGY My Account How to Play: Bet on how far your favorite teams will advance

• Under the hood:• We can price &

accept most any bet!... keeping priceslogically consistent

• “Combinatoriallogarithmic marketscoring rule marketmaker withimportancesamplingapproximation”

Page 3: March Madness bet constructor - dpennock.comdpennock.com/talks/bracketology-hackday-10-2007b.pdf · BRACKETOLOGY My Account How to Play: Bet on how far your favorite teams will advance
Page 4: March Madness bet constructor - dpennock.comdpennock.com/talks/bracketology-hackday-10-2007b.pdf · BRACKETOLOGY My Account How to Play: Bet on how far your favorite teams will advance
Page 5: March Madness bet constructor - dpennock.comdpennock.com/talks/bracketology-hackday-10-2007b.pdf · BRACKETOLOGY My Account How to Play: Bet on how far your favorite teams will advance