march madness bet constructor - dpennock.comdpennock.com/talks/bracketology-hackday-10-2007b.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
• March Madnessbet constructor
• Bet on any team towin any game– Duke wins in Final 4
• Bet “exotics”:– Duke advances
further than UNC– ACC teams win at
least 5– A 1-seed will lose in
1st round
• Under the hood:• We can price &
accept most any bet!... keeping priceslogically consistent
• “Combinatoriallogarithmic marketscoring rule marketmaker withimportancesamplingapproximation”