mapping the wind resources of northern scandinavia and the u.k
DESCRIPTION
MAPPING THE WIND RESOURCES OF NORTHERN SCANDINAVIA AND THE U.K. Resource estimation in complex terrain using a full atmospheric model with very high resolution. OUTLINE. The Challenge The StormGeo Solution Validation Conclusions. THE CHALLENGE. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
MAPPING THE WIND RESOURCES OF NORTHERN SCANDINAVIA AND THE U.K.
Resource estimation in complex terrain using a full atmospheric model with
very high resolution
• The Challenge• The StormGeo Solution• Validation• Conclusions
OUTLINE
THE CHALLENGE
SITING AND RESOURCE ESTIMATION IN COMPLEX TERRAIN• Conditions can vary widely across wind farm area• Wind shear and turbulence effects can be significant
• Conventional methods insufficient • Can’t have a met mast in every possible turbine position!
”Bankable” production estimates from Norwegian wind farms UNDER-ESTIMATED by up to 25 percent!
EXAMPLE
Wind farm on island near the Norwegian coastInstant wind speeds vary from 3 to 13 m/s
10 km
STORMGEO SOLUTION
FULL 3D ATMOSPHERIC MODEL IN VERY HIGH RESOLUTION
Advantages• Resolves differences across wind farm• Handles vertical stability and shear in a realistic way• Takes coastal boundary-layer effects into account• Met mast not required
Drawbacks• Computationally demanding
MODEL HINDCASTS
Global modelEC – world’s best!
Local modelsWRF
Typical nesting9 – 3 – 1 km
Typical hindcast period1-2 years
THE WindSight TOOL
• Combined on-line tool for siting and resource mapping• Based on pre-calculated weather model hindcasts• Calibration against available measurements• Climate correction using long-term data sets
1991 1992 1993
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
1999 2000 2001 2002
2004
2003
2005 2006 2007 2008
1989 1990
THE WIND MAPPER
• Average wind speed• Average energy production• Wind shear• Standard deviations,
min/max• Virtual measurement
series
THE WIND FARM PLANNER 1
• Select turbine type• Define wind farm layout• Extract turbine point time series• Select wind distribution model
THE WIND FARM PLANNER 2
• Compute results
LONG-TERM CORRECTION
1993
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
1999 2000 2001 20032002
2004 2005 2006 2007
1990 1991 19921990
2008
1989 EC ERA climate data:• Global• 21+ years• Every 70 km / 3 hours• All parameters• 5 levels near ground
Typical correlations in North Scandinavia:• ERA 0.8-0.9• SYNOP 0.5-0.8
Excellent for long-term correction of hindcasts and measurements!
VALIDATION 1
Model validated against >20 measuring masts in Scandinavia
Example: 48 m mast in mountainous area, Rogaland, NorwayHindcasted vs. measured wind speed, September 2007, 1h resolution
Mean error Mean absolute error Root-mean-square error
0.27 m/s 1.8 m/s 2.4 m/s
Error levels, Jan-Dec 2007
VALIDATION 2
Hindcasted versus measured distributions, September 2007
AREAS COVERED TODAY
CONCLUSIONS
• The challenges of siting and resource mapping in complex terrain can to a large degree be overcome using full 3D weather model simulations
• Combining simulations with measurements and long-term re-analysis data provides a robust basis for siting and resource estimation
