macroeconomic trends and cycles
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Macroeconomic Trends and Cycles. Junhui Qian 2013 October. Content. Overview Key Macroeconomic Variables GDP Inflation Employment Industrial Output Investment Consumption Deposits and Loans Interest Rate. Overview. Major Cycles (Year of overheat) 1978-1983 (1980) 1984-1986 (1985) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Fiscal SystemJunhui Qian
2015 October
Content• Basics• The Transition of Fiscal System• The Fiscal System Before the Reform• Fiscal Responsibility System (1980-1993)• Fiscal Reform of 1994• Reforms after 1994• Future Fiscal Reform
• Revenue and Expenditure in 2012
Basics of Fiscal System• The fiscal system collects tax, provide public goods and make transfer
payments to the citizens. • A modern fiscal system has the following characteristics:• Principled taxation (equity, certainty, convenience, economy in collection,
etc.)• Modern budgeting process (in which the public have a say)• Rule/law-based sharing of revenue and responsibility among different levels
of government
What are public goods?Excludable Non-excludable
Rival Private goods (e.g., clothes, food) Common goods (e.g., public parks)
Non-Rival Semi-public goods (e.g., satellite signal)
Public goods (e.g., national defense, public security)
Content• Basics• The Transition of Fiscal System• The Fiscal System Before the Reform• Fiscal Responsibility System (1980-1993)• Fiscal Reform of 1994• Reforms after 1994• Future Fiscal Reform
• Revenue and Expenditure in 2012
The Fiscal System Before the Reform• Essentially all expenditures were determined at the center.• Responsibilities for day-to-day public administration and social
services, such as education (except universities), public safety, health care, social security, housing, and other local/urban services, were all delegated to local governments.• Financing for these services was provided by the central government
through the revenue-sharing system, under which all revenues belonged to the central government.• Revenues came largely from industrial profits and were collected in a
highly uneven pattern from different regions and localities.
The Decline of the Budget• As reform started, the formal revenue system quickly began to erode.• Central revenues were especially hard-hit because local governments
in rich regions often shielded local enterprises from taxation to avoid sharing revenues with central the government.• Furthermore, there was no tax administration in place for rural
enterprises. • Piece-meal reforms: • 1984: Income tax on SOE’s was introduced to replace profit remittances. • 1986: A contract system was introduced• 1988: Fiscal responsibility system (a contract system with local governments )
Fiscal Responsibility System• The contracts stipulated a lump-sum remittance to the center from each province, to increase
annually by an agreed rate, with any additional revenues accruing to the province. In return, provinces accepted responsibility for meeting their expenditure requirements from retained revenues.
• Fiscal contracts put local governments on a self-financing basis.• The responsibility system did not stop the decline of the budget. The central government share of
revenue declined further due to the generous terms of the contracts (also thanks to the inflation). • Accompanying this decline of the budget, “extra-budgetary revenues” grew during the 1980s and
1990s.• By the early 1990s, the central government was in a “desperate” situation, spurring a drastic
reform with two objectives: • stemming the decline of revenues• Increasing the share of central government revenue
Budgetary Share of GDP
Central government share of budgetary revenue and expenditure
The 1994 Reform• The major fiscal reform of 1994 re-centralized the fiscal system.• The reform package had three components:• Tax modernization• Tax sharing• Tax administration
Tax Modernization• Objectives: simplify tax structure, eliminate distortion, and increase
transparency. • The complex multi-tiered system of turnover taxes borrowed from the
Soviet Union was replaced with a value-added tax (VAT), which now applies to all manufacturing, repair, and assembly activities, primarily at a single rate of 17 percent.• By taxing only the portion of value added in any enterprise, the VAT also
eliminated tax cascading and much of the incentive for vertical integration.• On eleven products an excise tax (the consumption tax, CT) is applied at
differing rates in addition to the VAT, generally at a rate of 5%.
Tax-Sharing System• Under the TSS, taxes are assigned to central government, local
government, or shared.• By assigning the biggest tax, the VAT, as a shared tax and claiming 75
percent of its receipts, the central government reclaimed a majority portion of total revenues.
Revenue assignments between the central and provincial governments (I)• Taxes exclusively assigned to the central government include:
1. Excise taxes2. Taxes collected from the Ministry of Railroads and from the headquarters
of banks and insurance companies3. Income taxes, sales taxes, and royalties from offshore oil activities of
foreign companies and joint ventures4. All customs duty, VAT, and excise taxes on imports5. Enterprise income tax collected from banks and other financial institutions
Revenue assignments between the central and provincial governments (II)• Taxes shared between the central and local governments include:
1. Value-added tax (75 percent central and 25 percent provincial)2. Natural resource taxes (coal, gas, oil, and other minerals if the enterprises
are fully Chinese owned)3. Salt tax4. Industrial and commercial tax, and income tax levied on foreign and joint
venture enterprises5. Security and exchange tax (50 percent central and 50 percent provincial) –
added in late 1990s6. Income tax of all enterprises – added in 20027. Personal income taxes – added in 2002
Revenue assignments between the central and provincial governments (III)• Taxes exclusively assigned to local governments include:
• Business (gross receipts) tax falling on sectors not covered by VAT (transportation and communications, construction, finance and insurance, post and telecommunications, culture and sports, entertainment, hotels and restaurants, and other)
• Rural market (stall rental) trading tax• The urban maintenance and construction tax (a surcharge on the tax liability of enterprises for
business tax, CT, and VAT)• The urban land-use tax• Vehicle and vessel utilization tax• Value-added tax on land• Education surtax• Entertainment and slaughter taxes• Property tax• Surtax on collective enterprises• Resources tax
Tax Administration• The 1994 reform established a national tax administration in China for
the first time.• By removing central taxes and the VAT from local administration, the
reform largely eliminated opportunities for local governments to divert central revenues into local coffers through manipulation of tax assessments.
Overview of the 1994 Reform• While reducing fiscal incentives for promoting local industry, the TSS also
shifted incentives more toward commerce and trade by expanding the business tax on services and assigning it to local governments where it has become an important revenue source that rivals the VAT.• Distortions remain.
• The sharing of VAT and EIT on a derivation basis (where taxes are collected, such as the headquarters of enterprises) hinders the growth of national enterprises and slow down the consolidation process.
• Tax competition
• More fundamentally, the reform recentralized revenues but left expenditure assignments unchanged, it created a huge fiscal gap for local governments.
The Fiscal Imbalance
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-5,000,000.000
-4,000,000.000
-3,000,000.000
-2,000,000.000
-1,000,000.000
0.000
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2,000,000.000
Central Government Surplus/Deficit (RMB mn) Local Government Surplus/Deficit (RMB mn)
Reforms after 1994• The clean-up of extra-budgetary revenue. • In 1992, EBR represented 110.67% of in-budget revenue. In 2000, the ratio of
EBR to IBR was reduced to 28%. By 2003, all fees and incomes from the previous EBR had been incorporated into budgeting.
• Gradual improvement of tax sharing• Most importantly, transfer payment is improved to equalize the provision of
public goods across regions.
What is transfer payment?• Transfer payment is a redistribution of income by the government.
Examples include welfare, social security, subsidies for certain businesses, transfers from the central government to local governments.• Transfer payment is often referred to as the second distribution of
income, after the first distribution in the market (i.e., wage, interest, dividend).
Transfers as a share of local expenditures
Transfer payment as a share of the gap between local revenue and local expenditure
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Transfer payment as a share of the gap between local revenue and local expenditure (%)
The Improving Structure of Transfer Payments
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
The Improving Structure of Transfer Payments
Ordinary transfer payments Special transfer payments
Future Fiscal Reforms• The modernization of budgetary process• The phase-out of investment expenditure and the expansion of public
goods provision. • The rebalancing of revenue and responsibility among different levels
of the government. • Key questions are: what kind of public goods should be provided by the local
governments and how to finance them?
• Other tax reforms• Production-type VAT to consumption-type VAT• Expansion of VAT to service industry
Content• Basics• The Transition of Fiscal System• The Fiscal System Before the Reform• Fiscal Responsibility System (1980-1993)• Fiscal Reform of 1994• Reforms after 1994• Future Fiscal Reform
• Revenue and Expenditure in 2012
Revenue (2012, unit: RMB 100m)Total Central Local Central (%) Local (%)
Total Revenue 117253.5 56175.2 61078.3 47.9 52.1
Tax Revenue 100614.3 53295.2 47319.1 53.0 47.0
Domestic VAT 26415.5 19678.4 6737.2 74.5 25.5
Domestic CT 7875.6 7875.6 100.0 0.0
Costoms (net) 4373.3 4373.3 100.0 0.0
Business Tax 15747.6 204.7 15542.9 1.3 98.7
EIT 19654.5 12082.9 7571.6 61.5 38.5
PIT 5820.3 3492.7 2327.6 60.0 40.0
Resources Tax 904.4 48.6 855.8 5.4 94.6
City Construction Tax 3125.6 190.9 2934.8 6.1 93.9
Property Tax 1372.5 1372.5 0.0 100.0
Other Tax 15325.0 5348.2 9976.8 34.9 65.1
Nontax Revenue 16639.2 2880.0 13759.2 17.3 82.7
Recent Trend
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
VAT EIT Business Tax PIT CT
Expenditure (2012, unit: RMB 100m)Total Central Local Central (%) Local (%)
Total Expenditure 125953.0 18764.6 107188.3 14.9 85.1 Ordinary Public Service 12700.5 998.3 11702.1 7.9 92.1 Foreign Affairs 333.8 332.4 1.4 99.6 0.4 Defense 6691.9 6481.4 210.5 96.9 3.1 Public Security 7111.6 1183.5 5928.1 16.6 83.4 Education 21242.1 1101.5 20140.6 5.2 94.8 Science and Technology 4452.6 2210.4 2242.2 49.6 50.4 Culture, Sports, and Media 2268.4 193.6 2074.8 8.5 91.5
Social Security and Employment 12585.5 585.7 11999.9 4.7 95.3 Medicine 7245.1 74.3 7170.8 1.0 99.0 Environmental Protection 2963.5 63.7 2899.8 2.1 97.9 Community Service 9079.1 18.2 9060.9 0.2 99.8 Farm, Forest, Water 11973.9 502.5 11471.4 4.2 95.8 Transportation 8196.2 863.6 7332.6 10.5 89.5 Public Housing 4479.6 410.9 4068.7 9.2 90.8 Interest Payments 2635.7 2060.4 575.3 78.2 21.8 Others 11993.5 1684.4 10309.1 14.0 86.0