cycles and trends
DESCRIPTION
CYCLES and TRENDS. DAVID CHAPMAN. CYCLES BUBBLES PANICS. CYCLES and TRENDS. “ Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeating it” -- George Santayana (1863-1952) “The people are turbulent and changing, they seldom judge or determine right.” -- Alexander Hamilton (1755-1804) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
DAVID CHAPMANDAVID CHAPMAN
![Page 2: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeating it”
-- George Santayana (1863-1952)
“The people are turbulent and changing, they seldom judge or determine right.”
-- Alexander Hamilton (1755-1804)
“The issue today is the same as it has been throughout all history, whether man shall be allowed
to govern himself or be ruled by a small elite”-- Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)
2
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 3: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Long Term CyclesLong Term Cycles
Dewey & Dakin (54 Year Commodity Cycle)
Kondratieff Kwave (54-60 Year Supercycle)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 4: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Edward Dewey And Edward DakinEdward Dewey And Edward Dakin
● 54 Year Cycle
● Their book charted prices from 1790 for wholesale prices that coincided with peaks and valleys for commodity prices
● Cycle measured peak to trough with roughly 27 years to peak and 27 years to trough
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 5: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
DEWEY & DAKIN PREDICTIONSDEWEY & DAKIN PREDICTIONS
Year of Peak Prediction – Year of Peak Prediction – Dewey & DakinDewey & Dakin
Actual Peak Actual Peak Peak WarPeak War
1755 * Seven Years War aka French Indian Wars (Britain/France)
1817 1817 (1810) War of 1812
1871 1868 (1864) Civil War
1925 1920 WW1
1979 1980/81 (1974/75) Vietnam
2033 War on Terror? WW3?
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 6: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Year of Trough Prediction – Year of Trough Prediction – Dewy & DakinDewy & Dakin
Actual TroughActual Trough Trough WarTrough War
1729/1730 * French Colonies and Great Britain
1790 1790 (1783) American Revolution
1844 1842 (1837) Mexican American War
1952 1949 (1932 and 1947) WW2
2006 2001 Cold War/Gulf Wars/Balkan Wars
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
DEWEY & DAKIN PREDICTIONSDEWEY & DAKIN PREDICTIONS
![Page 7: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Kondratieff Cycle or KwaveKondratieff Cycle or Kwave
● Russian Economist under Stalin
● 50-60/65 year cycle
● Can be controversial
● Not widely accepted
● Ian Gordon – Long Wave Analyst
www.longwavegroup.com
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 8: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
The K-Wave Cycles 1789-Present U.S.A.The K-Wave Cycles 1789-Present U.S.A.SPRING (EXPANSION) SUMMER (RECESSION) AUTUMN (PLATEAU) WINTER (DEPRESSION)
1784-1802 (American Revolution)
1803-1816 (War of 1812)
1817-1834 (Era of Good Feelings)
1835-1844 (Mexican American War)
1845-1858 (Mexican American War)
1859-1864 (Civil War)
1864-1874 (Reconstruction)
1875-1896 (Indian Wars)
1896-1907 (Spanish American War)
1908-1920 (WW1) 1921-1929 (Roaring 20’s)
1930-1948 (WW2)
1949-1966 (Korean War, Suez Crisis, Cuban Missile Crisis, Cold War)
1966-1981 (Vietnam War)
1982-2000 (The Information Age)
2000-? (War on Terror? WW3?)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 9: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
9
Kondratieff Phase Best Investments Worst Investments Characteristics
Spring (Expansion)Inflationary Growth
Stocks, Real Estate and Commodities
slowly rising
Bonds Low inflation, healthy banking system, growing
savings
Summer (Recession)Stagflation
Commodities, Gold and Real Estate
Stocks and Bonds Inflation, debt growing (corporate),
stagnate growth
Autumn (Plateau)Deflationary Growth
Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate
Commodities and Gold
Debt levels soar (consumer), wealth
disparity, stock market euphoria,
low inflation
Winter (Depression)Deflation
Gold, Cash and Commodities in late
cycle
Stocks, Real Estate, Bonds (until end of credit crunch then
they fall again)
Deflation, debt collapse, trade conflicts, social
upheaval
![Page 10: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
10
![Page 11: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 12: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
12
Other CyclesOther Cycles
● Kuznets – 15-25 Year Real Estate/Infrastructure
● Juglar – 7-11 Year Business Cycle
● Kitchin – 3-5 Year Inventory Cycle
![Page 13: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 14: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 15: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
15
![Page 16: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 17: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
17
● Gold
● Silver
● Oil
● Natural Gas
Commodity CyclesCommodity Cycles
![Page 18: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
18
![Page 19: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
19
![Page 20: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 21: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 22: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 23: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
Bubbles And PanicsBubbles And Panics
![Page 24: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 25: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 26: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
26
![Page 27: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
27
![Page 28: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 29: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 30: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
30
Intermarket Technical AnalysisIntermarket Technical Analysis
![Page 31: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 32: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 33: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 34: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 35: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
SOME INTERESTING CHARTSSOME INTERESTING CHARTS
![Page 36: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 37: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 38: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 39: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
39
CYCLES and TRENDSCYCLES and TRENDS
![Page 40: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40
SOME ECONOMICSSOME ECONOMICS
![Page 41: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41
Declining Consumer ConfidenceDeclining Consumer Confidence
![Page 42: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Rising Household Debt Declining SavingsRising Household Debt Declining Savings
42
![Page 43: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Rising Household Debt as % of Disposable Rising Household Debt as % of Disposable IncomeIncome
43
![Page 44: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Declining Household Net Worth as % of Declining Household Net Worth as % of GDPGDP
44
![Page 45: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Declining % of Homeowner EquityDeclining % of Homeowner Equity
45
![Page 46: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Record High Total US Debt as % of GDPRecord High Total US Debt as % of GDP
46
![Page 47: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Real Estate Decline Real Estate Decline
47
![Page 48: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
More Mortgage Resets to Come IMore Mortgage Resets to Come I
48
![Page 49: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
More Mortgage Resets to Come IIMore Mortgage Resets to Come II
49
![Page 50: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
50
Lots of Housing Supply on the MarketLots of Housing Supply on the Market
![Page 51: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
51
Housing Prices have taken a PoundingHousing Prices have taken a Pounding
![Page 52: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
52
And there is More to ComeAnd there is More to Come
![Page 53: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
53
Owner’s Equity Keeps DecliningOwner’s Equity Keeps Declining
![Page 54: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
54
Owner’s are not Getting as Much Out of Owner’s are not Getting as Much Out of their Homestheir Homes
![Page 55: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
55
Home Ownership is in DeclineHome Ownership is in Decline
![Page 56: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
56
But the Houses just kept getting BiggerBut the Houses just kept getting Bigger
![Page 57: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Growing Commercial Vacancy RateGrowing Commercial Vacancy Rate
57
![Page 58: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Rising Real UnemploymentRising Real Unemployment
58
![Page 59: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Declining Real EarningsDeclining Real Earnings
59
![Page 60: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Declining Automobile CompetitivenessDeclining Automobile Competitiveness
60
![Page 61: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Declining GDPDeclining GDP
61
![Page 62: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Rising International Trade DeficitsRising International Trade Deficits
62
![Page 63: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Growing Control of US AssetsGrowing Control of US Assets
63
![Page 64: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Explosive CDS ExposureExplosive CDS Exposure
64
![Page 65: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Explosive Derivatives GrowthExplosive Derivatives Growth
65
![Page 66: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Record Federal Reserve LiabilitiesRecord Federal Reserve Liabilities
66
![Page 67: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Bubble in Financial AssetsBubble in Financial Assets
0
50
100
150
200
250
119%
1980
201%
1990
295%
2000
317%
2005
346%
2006
356%
2007
00%
World Financial Assets
Nominal World GDP
Financial Depth(% of GDP)
Tri
llions $
Note: Asset and GDP figures have been rounded for simplicity. Financial depth percentages were calculated using nonrounded figures.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
$12 $10
$43
$22
$94
$32
$142
$45 $48$55
$167
$195
World Financial Assets vs. Nominal World GDP
67
![Page 68: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
High Real InflationHigh Real Inflation
68
![Page 69: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Rising Long Term InflationRising Long Term Inflation
69
![Page 70: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Expanding Money SupplyExpanding Money Supply
70
![Page 71: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Growing Global Money SupplyGrowing Global Money Supply
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Brazil
India
China
UK
Russia
Mexico
Canada
United States
Japan
Annual Increase in Money Supply
Money Supply as Reported
As of March 30, 2009
Source: Bloomberg
71
![Page 72: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Growing Federal ObligationsGrowing Federal Obligations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Gross Federal Debt
Total Federal Obligations*
Source: www.shadowstats.com * Including Social Security and Medicare
U.S. Government Debt vs. ObligationsT
rilli
on
s $
72
![Page 73: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Total Government DebtTotal Government Debt
Government Sector Debt Debt
Federal Government Sector 10 Trillion
State & Local Government Sector 2 Trillion
Un-funded Social Security contingent liabilities looking forward 7 Trillion
Un-funded Medicare contingent liabilities, estimated 37 Trillion
Total Above Government Debt $56 Trillion
73
![Page 74: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Exploding Federal Budget DeficitsExploding Federal Budget Deficits
74
![Page 75: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Escalating Federal SpendingEscalating Federal Spending
75
![Page 76: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Gold, Silver and PlatinumGold, Silver and Platinum
119%
196%
225%
76
![Page 77: CYCLES and TRENDS](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56812a73550346895d8df7a0/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Thank YouThank You
David ChapmanDavid Chapmanwww.davidchapman.comwww.davidchapman.com
77