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Expanding Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the

Chesapeake Bay: Collaborative Development for Ecological

Forecasting Applications

Expanding Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the

Chesapeake Bay: Collaborative Development for Ecological

Forecasting ApplicationsLouis W. Uccellini; Marie C. Colton;

David S. Green and W. Douglas Wilson

NOAA National Weather Service, National Ocean Service & Chesapeake Bay Office

2009 CRC Regional Conference

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Outline

• Drivers• Regional Capabilities • Collaborative

Development Center• Expanding System

Components• Opportunities for

Chesapeake Pilot Program

• Proposed Next Steps

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DriversDrivers

• Addressing User need for expanding environmental prediction as a tool for informed decision making– Linking weather, water and ecological research,

assessment, and monitoring activities at a regional scale

– Delivering essential forecast products and services through regional collaboration

– Increasing outreach and education, and enhancing socio-economic benefits

• NOAA initiative to focus its expertise, resources , and capabilities in the broader context of Ecosystem Based Management– Formal operational ecological forecasting entity for

the Region

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Regional Capabilities: CurrentRegional Capabilities: Current

• Observation– Extensive observation systems and monitoring programs in the

Chesapeake Bay and tidal tributaries

• Modeling• Regional Ocean Models• Hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and biology models

(transport, nutrients, contaminants, populations, vulnerability)

• Water circulation models for the bay• Species population dynamics and disease models

• Research – Quasi-operational ecological forecasting and assessment of

ecosystem indicators backed by NOAA infrastructure and regional partnerships

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Regional Capabilities: Future State

Regional Capabilities: Future State

• Products: – Warnings, watches, advisories, and information bulletins– Scenarios and outlooks

• Purpose– Scaleable to inform decisions for local to regional

management– Build on operational weather and water forecast

infrastructure and ecosystem research– Transition research results to applications and drive

research from operational feedback

• Comprehensive and integrated environmental forecast products & decision support services– Effective, reliable and quality controlled– Regional mitigation, adaptation, restoration and

recovery– Collaborative and community-based research,

operations, and sustainment

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Centers Ready to CollaborateCenters Ready to Collaborate

• National Centers for Environmental Prediction (EMC, CPC, OPC) and University of Maryland

• Capabilities:– Observation and Monitoring– Data Assimilation and Modeling– Dissemination– Education & Outreach– Research to Applications

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ObservationsObservations

Environmental Environmental ModelingModeling

ResearchResearch

Ecological Ecological ForecastingForecasting

Products for Products for Users and Users and

StakeholdersStakeholders

Expanding System Components

Expanding System Components

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Expanding System Components: Tools

Expanding System Components: Tools

• Observations– Continuum over spatial and temporal scales

• Atmospheric-Ocean, Estuaries, Near-shore• River flow and flux, beaches and wetlands, watersheds• Land-surface biophysics • Weather and climate variables • Biogeochemistry and multiple species

– In situ, remote sampling, and process studies. • Models

– Heuristic and numerical – Regional ocean models– Linked physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem

• Decision Support Services– Forecasts and Warnings, Bulletins and Outlooks– Forecast probabilities and uncertainties– Long-term Scenarios and Assessments– Decision support and adaptive tools,

• geospatial and interactive Maps

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Opportunities for Chesapeake Bay

Opportunities for Chesapeake Bay

• Regional Ecological Forecast System

• Chesapeake Bay Pilot Forecasts*– Beach/Water Quality– Living Resource Distribution– Dissolved Oxygen [DO} Predictions– Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)– Disease Pathogen Progression

(Climate Change) *Pre-planning meeting for Chesapeake Ecological WorkshopAnnapolis, Feb 27, 2009

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Opportunities for Chesapeake Bay

Opportunities for Chesapeake Bay

• Can only be done through a multi-disciplinary approach – building off the existing operational prediction and product delivery infrastructure

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Proposed Next StepsProposed Next Steps

• Seek AA recognition/approval across NOAA• Establish Regional Collaborative Pilot Office at

University of Maryland– Extend multi-agency, academic, and regional

participation– Engage with user community in developing forecast and

management framework– Strengthen regional observation and data systems

• Deliver operational forecast products and tools– Integration of a suite of hydrodynamic and biological

models– Forecast products for living resource distributions,

hypoxic conditions, water quality, beach closures, algal blooms and pathogens

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AppendixAppendix

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Beach/Water QualityMonitoring & Forecast System

Beach/Water QualityMonitoring & Forecast System

• Issue: Water quality is at risk due to microbial and chemical contamination and a threat to human and ecosystem health and economics

• Solution: Water (beach) quality guidance

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and warnings daily, weekly, seasonal (including lead times) using hydrologic, waves, precipitation, circulation, transport turbidity, nutrients, waste, watershed and land models

• Collaborators: Include state and local managers, scientists, health workers, and regulators

• Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing water (beach) quality index, bacterial content, water temperature, beach closures, water turbidity, categorical risk assessment

• Dissemination: Online and Media

• Outcome: Actions taken to improve Bay and public health, clean water, and promote improved land and resource management

Indicators and Indices http://www.eco-check.org/reportcard/chesapeake/2007/

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Living Resource Distribution/Oyster

Monitoring & Forecast System

Living Resource Distribution/Oyster

Monitoring & Forecast System

Chesapeake Bay Oyster Larvae Tracker (CBOLT)http://csc.noaa.gov/cbolt/

• Issue: Oyster populations are at low levels and productivity varies depending on salinity, water quality, habitat conditions, and disease.

• Solution: Annual forecast of oyster biomass including harvests and other related mortality/disease information

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and outlooks using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, water quality, atmospheric and ecosystem models

• Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers

• Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing habitat suitability, stock assessments, management and larvae tracking

• Dissemination: Online and Media

• Outcome: Actions taken to promote oyster restoration and disease research

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Oyster Larvae Tracker System Architecture

Oyster Larvae Tracker System Architecture

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Disolved Oxygen [DO]Monitoring & Forecast System

Disolved Oxygen [DO]Monitoring & Forecast System

• Issue: Some areas of the Bay have low oxygen levels threatening survival of species.

• Solution: Predictions and forecasts of hypoxia, including uncertainty related to nutrient loading and river flow

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate predictions and forecasts on synoptic to seasonal scales using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, atmospheric and water quality models

• Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers

• Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing concentration and dead zones, habitat suitability, and marine assessments

• Dissemination: Online and Media

• Outcome: Regional actions taken to promote restoration and recovery

http://www.eco-check.org/forecast/chesapeake/overview/

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Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)Monitoring & Forecast System

Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)Monitoring & Forecast System

• Issue: HABs threaten human health and natural resources

• Solution: Predict nature, extent, development and movement of HAB species in Bay and its tidal tributaries.

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts using data from hydrodynamic computer models and NOAA satellites.

• Collaborators: Include state natural resource partners

• Output Product: Near-real time maps showing when and where to expect initiation and landfall

• Dissemination: Online and Media

• Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate HAB effects.

Nowcast of K.veneficum abundance (Experimental product)

http://155.206.18.162/cbay_hab/

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HAB Forecast System Transition to OperationsHAB Forecast System

Transition to Operations

User Requirements

State, Federal, other management agencies (State Depts. of Health, Fisheries; Nat'l Marine Sanctuaries, Protected Species)

Develop concepts, models, sensors

Research(separate program)

OperationsPre-operationsTransition(Development)

Validation

Product types,

Training matl,Analysts

Data integration,

Data access

Forecast development

Transfer models

Forecasts (bulletins),Respond to

users,Access and

run data sets,User

interaction

Forecast evaluation,

Product usefulness,

Product effectiveness,Annual User

feedback

Various researchers (NOAA, NASA, NSF)

Technical Oversight Group (NOAA)Researchers

NOAA and State partners NOAA and

State partners NOAA andTechnical Oversight GroupKey Users GroupKey Users Group

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Disease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast SystemDisease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast System

• Issue: Bacterial and viral pathogens – microorganisms capable of causing disease - threaten shellfish, fish species and human health

• Solution: Predict nature, extent, and spatially dependence of pathogens, including virulence probabilities in Bay and tidal tributaries

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate short- and long-term predictions using data from hydrodynamic and climate models, temperature and salinity, vibrio and multiple species, pathogen models and remote sensing data. Near-real-time maps of V. cholerae likelihood

Experimental product http://155.206.18.162/pathogens/

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Disease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast SystemDisease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast System

• Collaborators: Include water quality and resource mangers, environmental, health and safety planners, and health officials

• Output Product: Near-real time predictions and maps showing when and where to expect outbreaks or likelihood of occurrence, and long-term scenarios

• Dissemination: Online, Factsheets and Media

• Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate impacts of pathogens