Climate Prediction Modeling at NCEP Where Americas Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin 1 Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Washington, D.C. October 3, 2011 2 Outline Define NCEP Strategic Basis Model Production Suite Link between weather and climate models NCEPs Climate Forecast System Recent upgrade to CFS Version 2.0 Reanalysis/reforecast Outreach User/service workshop COLA agreement India MOU; model delivery Future CFS Version 3.0 engaging the community through the Climate Test Bed Multi-model ensemble Summary NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate, Weather, and Ocean Products Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. 3 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Vision: The Nations trusted source, first alert, and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center 4 NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years CPC Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits TPCOPC HPC SWPCAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : NDFD, Days Day Forecast MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Seasonal Predictions ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Weather and Climate Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP*) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS Global Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane WRF & GFDL Waves Real Time Ocean Forecast System Space Weather Tsunami *To become available for NCEP operational seasonal prediction in Dec 2011 EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPCClimate Test Bed NHCJoint Hurricane Test Bed HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWCAviation Weather Test Bed OPCIOOS Supported Test Bed (in discussion with NOS/IOOS) Test Beds Service Science Linkage with the Outside Community: Accelerating the R2O Transition Process 6 7 Launch List Model Implementation Process EMC NCO R&D Operations Delivery Criteria Transition from Research to Operations (R2O) Requirements EMC Schematics in the Model Transition Process OPS Life cycle Support Service Centers NOAA Research Concept of Operations Service Centers User Observation System Field Offices Effort EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability ASI, COLA, ARCS Operations to Research (O2R) Test Beds CTB JCSDA WRF DTC JHT. To Accelerate R2O, Need to Support O2R 8 Model Production Suite Link between weather and climate models 9 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAAs Model Production Suite GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 9 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% ~2B Obs/Day NOS OFS Great Lakes Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware Space Weather (Future) ENLIL Regional DA 10 NCEPs Climate Forecast System (CFS) 11 NCEP Requirement for CFS CFS is the first dynamic model used for NCEP operational intra- seasonal and inter-annual forecasts Operated in an ensemble mode (4/day) To be combined with EUROSIP models as part of an International Multi- model Ensemble (by December 2011) Provides real-time ENSO forecast for El Nino, La Nina alerts, watches and warnings The CFS-based coupled Reanalysis provides the best estimate of the state of the coupled climate system, which is the basis for operational climate monitoring and analyses. The CFS-based Reforecast provides basis for model calibration of CFS real time forecast used in CPC operations. CFSv1 implemented CTB spun up CFSv2 implemented 48 month running mean of Heidke Skill scores computed for seasonal outlooks of U.S. Surface Temperature for each 3-month seasonal mean US Seasonal Temperature GPRA* Measure *GPRA Government Performance and Results Act 13 AttributeCFS v1.0 Operational Since 2004 CFS v2.0 Operational Since March 2011 Analysis Resolution200 km27 km (T574) Atmosphere model2003: 200 km/64 levels Humidity based clouds 2010: 100 km (T126)/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global x deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level OSU LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and 3-layer interactive sea ice model CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts (Real-time extension) 15/month seasonal output 24/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS) Recent upgrade (March 30, 2011) T126 Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) A T384/L64 (~ 38 km) reanalysis from 1979 present (GFS/GSI Atmosphere; MOM4 -Ocean; NOAH/GLDAS Land; Sea Ice model) A semi-coupled data assimilation 6 hour guess forecast from a coupled model Followed by independent ocean and atmosphere reanalysis Implemented operationally in March 2011 Data availability from National Climatic Data Center CFSR data dumps (GB/Month) Number of OceanTemperature Profiles/month Time