Long Term View on Geopolitical Issue

Seminar on Human Development &SustainabilityParis, 30 April 2003

Laura Cozzi

International Energy Agency

World Primary Energy DemandWorld Primary Energy Demand

Gas grows fastest in absolute terms & non-hydro renewables fastest in % terms, but oil remains the dominant fuel in 2030

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear power

Hydro powerNon-hydro renewables

Regional Shares in World Regional Shares in World Primary Energy DemandPrimary Energy Demand

62% of the increase in world demand between 2000 and 2030comes from developing countries, especially in Developing Asia

6957 58 54

47

18

19 1111

10

43343024

13

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1971 1990 2000 2010 2030

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

Evolution of Trade in World Trade in World FossilFossil--Fuel Production Fuel Production (2000(2000--2030)2030)

Energy trade between regions more than doubles between now and 2030, most of it in the form of oil

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Mto

e2000 2030 2000 2030 2000 2030

Oil Gas Coal

45%

58%

16%

28%

9%

14%

Share of inter-regional trade (%)

Increase in World Primary Increase in World Primary Energy ProductionEnergy Production

Almost all the increase in production occurs outside the OECD, up from 60% in 1971-2000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1971-2000 2000-2030

Mto

e

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

World Crude Oil and NGLWorld Crude Oil and NGLReservesReserves

OPEC63%

China3%

Russia14%

OECD8%

Rest of the World12%

960 billion barrels remaining

OPEC Share in World Oil Production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

md

/d

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

%

OPEC Production OPEC Share

OPEC Share in world oil production will reach 54% in 2030 from 38% today

OilOil--Import DependenceImport Dependence

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

OECDPacific

OECDEurope

OECDN.America

South Asia China East Asia

net i

mpo

rts a

s pe

r cen

t of o

il su

pply

2000 2010 2030

Asia sees the biggest jump in import dependence, while OECD imports also continue to rise, especially in Europe

Proven Gas ReservesProven Gas Reserves

Ultimate remaining resources (including proven reserves) are an estimated 453 - 527 tcm

World total: 164 tcm at 1 January 2001

56.7

58.5

6.4

11.6

14.9

7.7

8.2

China: Oil BalanceChina: Oil Balance

Net oil imports surge from 1.7mb/d in 2001 to 9.8mb/d in 2030

0000

2222

4444

6666

8888

10101010

12121212

14141414

1980198019801980 1990199019901990 2000200020002000 2010201020102010 2020202020202020 2030203020302030

mb

/dm

b/d

mb

/dm

b/d

ProductionProductionProductionProduction ConsumptionConsumptionConsumptionConsumption

Net ImportsNet Exports

Oil Balance in the United States and CanadaOil Balance in the United States and Canada

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mb/

d

20

30

40

50

60

per cent

P ro duc t io n N e t im po rts Im po rt de pe nde nc e (rig ht ha nd a xis )

EnergyEnergy--Related CORelated CO22 EmissionsEmissions

World emissions increase by 1.8 % per year to 38 billion tonnes in 2030 – 70% above 2000 levels

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mill

ion

ton

nes

of C

O2

World OECD Transition economies Developing countries

Shared Views on Energy Security

l IEA countries recognise the significance of increasing global interdependencein energy. They therefore seek to promote the effective operation of international energy markets and encourage dialogue with all participants.

l Diversity, efficiency and flexibility within the energy sector are basic conditions for longer-term energy security: the fuels used within and across sectors and the sources of those fuels should be as diverse as practicable. Non-fossil fuels, particularly nuclear and hydro power, make a substantial contribution to the energy supply diversity of IEA countries as a group.

l Energy systems should have the ability to respond promptly and flexibly to energy emergencies....

l The environmentally sustainable provision and use of energy is central to the achievement of these shared goals. Decision-makers should seek to minimise the adverse environmental impacts of energy activities, just as environmental decisions should take account of the energy consequences. Government interventions should where practicable have regard to the Polluter Pays Principle.

l More environmentally acceptable energy sources need to be encouraged and developed. Clean and efficient use of fossil fuels is essential. The development of economic non-fossil sources is also a priority