laura cozzi international energy agency nexus forum, 25 october 2013, paris€¦ · © oecd/iea...
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2013
Laura Cozzi International Energy Agency
Nexus Forum, 25 October 2013, Paris
© OECD/IEA 2013
Climate change: the world is still moving in the wrong direction
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Energy policies planned and under discussion imply CO2 emissions consistent with long-term temperature increase of between 3.6 °C to 5.3 °C
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2012
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32 Gt
Dissolution of the Soviet Union
End of World War II
1st oil price shock
Global economic downturn
2nd oil price shock
Great depression
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Ever increasing cooling needs
Increase in energy demand for space cooling
Global energy demand for space cooling increases more when taking into account climate change, putting pressure on peak-load demand in some countries
0
5%
10%
15%
20% 2035
Additional 2035 to 2050
China India United States
Middle East
Ch
ange
co
mp
ared
to
20
10
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Climate change requires adaptation in the energy sector
© Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011)
15 largest cities exposed to droughts
All but one of the 15 most exposed cities to droughts are in developing countries
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© Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011)
Europe
Climate change requires adaptation in the energy sector
© Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011)
Increase of droughts and/or heatwaves
o C
o C
Increase in heavy rain
Change in tropical cyclones and storms
30
34
38
42
46
50
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
°C
Annual maximum temperature in Paris
34.6 °C
4.6 °C
42.8 °C 1.5 °C
36.2 °C
Global warming of:
In Europe, nearly 20% of coal-fired power generation will need added cooling capacity. About 1°C of warming will reduce available electric capacity by up to 19% in summer in the 2040s.
Power plant cooling impacted
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Climate change requires adaptation in the energy sector
© Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011)
Largest cities exposed to droughts
Increase of droughts and/or heatwaves
o C
o C
Increase in heavy rain
Change in tropical cyclones and storms
Around 70% of planned power capacity is locations considered either water stressed or water scarce.
In India, severe water scarcity will amplify competition for water and determine thermal plants competitiveness and location – while cooling demand grows
Power plant cooling impacted
India
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Climate change requires adaptation in the energy sector
© Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011)
Increase of droughts and/or heatwaves
o C
o C
o C Increase in heavy rain
Change in tropical cyclones and storms
In China, water constraints could make the expected increase in thermal power output unachievable, in particular, as 60% of thermal power capacity is in northern China, which as only 20% of freshwater supply.
Power plant cooling impacted
Storms, heavy rainfall and increased temperature will impact the power system infrastructure and energy demand
China
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A diverse portfolio matters in the power sector
Net revenues for new power plants by scenario, 2012-2035
Under a 2 °C path, total net revenues for new power plants are $3 trillion higher –
2
4
6
8
Nuclear Fossil fuels Renewables
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
Trillion dollars (2011)
CCS fitted
CCS is an effective protection strategy for fossil fuel assets
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Conclusions
Extreme weather and gradual climate change will both affect electricity systems going forward
Climate change alters long-term energy/electricity demand trends – first quantitification in WEO but more analysis needed to quantify each sectoral and regional impact
Developing countries likely to face most of the adapatation and resilience needs in electricity
Mitigation strategies will change the energy mix of utilities and determine their profitability and their ability to invest in resilience