lessons from the trenches: disconfirming evidence
DESCRIPTION
Since we’ve been involved with a successful startup before (Workbrain), people often call us for advice and insight on starting a new company. One of the most common questions we hear is: “I want to be an entrepreneur. How do I know I’ve come up with a great idea?” Here's a lesson from the trenches on how to find out.TRANSCRIPT
LESSONS FROM THE TRENCHES
CONFIDENTIAL
Disconfirming Evidence
The people want to know
“I want to be an entrepreneur. How do I
know I’ve come up with a great idea?”
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Short answer is…
You don’t.
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From the “Not Yet” dept.
Don’t write a business plan.
Your idea will shift a lot during the customer discovery process to find product/market fit.
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Business plans…
…are exercises in convincing other people
that you have a great idea.
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Better use of your time
Look for disconfirming
evidence that the choice to start this business is a good
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Prove you might be right…
…by proving that you’re probably not wrong.
There are no guarantees, but you’ll save a lot of time and resource and get to customer development
much sooner.
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THE PROCESSHow to disprove your brilliant business idea in five easy steps
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1• Create a general filter
What’s your passion? What kind of business do
you want?
We knew we wanted SaaS, low professional services, consumer-ized, freemium, focused on a large
demographic shift
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2• Do general research
Spend a few days talking to real people who know
about your problem
We’ll revisit this idea in an upcoming lesson.
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3• Agree on required truths
What must be true for your idea to be awesome?
This is the important part. Don’t list more than 5.
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Personal jet packs!
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1. People will want them (duh!)
2. You can get regulatory approval
3. You have access to technical know-how to design/build them
4. You can manufacture them at a price point a large market will bear
Things that must be true to attain awesome:
Illustration by Jonathan Wolfe. Licensed under Creative Commons.
4• Arrange from easiest to hardest
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1.Technical know-how
2.Regulatory approval
3.Demand
4.Price point
Cake by Patent and the Pantry. Monster by Don Solo. Licensed under Creative Commons.
5• Disprove truths in order
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1.Technical know-how?
2.Regulatory approval?
3.Demand?
4.Price point?
5• Disprove truths in order
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1.Technical know-how?
2.Regulatory approval?
3.Demand?
4.Price point?Damn! I don’t
know how to build a jetpack.
5• Disprove truths in order
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1.Technical know-how?
2.Regulatory approval?
3.Demand?
4.Price point?IDEA FAIL
Damn! I don’t know how to build
a jetpack.
But wait!
Idea fail is not real fail.
You still learned stuff (hopefully by talking to people!) Tweak and iterate on your idea or
move on.
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Customer Development diagram from Steve Blank.
Most importantly!
Don’t give up.
If it’s not this one, it might be the next one. Stick to the process and you’ll find one that doesn’t
fail.
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Suggested reading material
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See http://bit.ly/roger-martin for links
LESSONS FROM THE TRENCHES
Check out our blog for more lessons: http://bit.ly/rypple-lessons
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