lbma lppm precious metals conference oct 2015 without notes … · market research 25 summary •...
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1Market Research
Diesel in Europe
Peter DuncanGeneral Manager Market ResearchJohnson Matthey PLC
2Market Research
Overview• The emissions debate• The facts • Technology options for latest phases of emissions legislation• Future power trains• Implications for pgm demand• Summary
3Market Research
Overview• The emissions debate• The facts • Technology options for latest phases of emissions legislation• Future power trains• Implications for pgm demand• Summary
4Market Research
The emissions debate: the bad press
“Diesel tests reveal toxic truth”The Sunday Times, May 2015
“Paris mayor announces plans to ban diesel cars from French capital by 2020”The Guardian, December 2014
“Junk all diesel cars: They're a health hazard, so scrap them and pay owners £2,000” Boris tells MPs.The Daily Mail, September 2014
“Freddie Starr ate my hamster” The Sun, March 1986
5Market Research
The emissions debate: the industry fights back“The allegations against diesel cars made in recent months threaten to misguide policy making and undermine public confidence in diesel. It’s time to put the record straight.”Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, March 2015
“So in a year of COP21 where we are going to discuss about how we fix the global warming, how can we pinpoint diesel as diesel is the number one tool we have to achieve the 95 grams of C02 emissions by 2020?” Carlos Tavares, Chairman Peugeot SA, February 2015
“Diesel engines have never been more important than they are today. This technology is key to achieving fleet CO2 emission targets – in Europe especially, it is indispensable to that goal,” Dr. Rolf Bulander, chairman of the Mobility Solutions business sector, Bosch
“If you look at gasoline cars, there are also a few myths that should be addressed and the first one is that the new fuel‐efficient gasoline engines are not as clean as they are being presented”. Marc Grynberg, CEO Umicore, February 2015
6Market Research
Overview• The emissions debate• The facts • Technology options for latest phases of emissions legislation• Future power trains• Implications for pgm demand• Summary
7Market Research
The facts• NOx emissions limit from diesel vehicles under Euro 6b slightly higher than gasoline vehicles (80mg/km
vs 60mg/km).
• Particulate number (PN) emissions limit from diesel vehicles under Euro 6b an order of magnitude lower than gasoline vehicles (6.0 x 1011 vs 6.0 x 1012).
• Real world emissions from diesel vehicles at Euro6b probably are worse than the test, but that’s what Euro 6c is all about…
• Diesel vehicles are an essential tool to meet European CO2 emissions legislation.
8Market Research
Euro 6b to Euro 6c: “real world testing”
• Euro 6b 2014/15
• Euro 6c 2017/18
• Move to new test cycle (WLTC)
• Inclusion of RDE test (PEMs)
9Market Research
Greenhouse gas legislationEC Regulation No. 443/2009EU: 130g CO2/km by 2012; 95g CO2/km by 2020
• Huge fines on car manufacturers for failure to meet targets:from 2019, an excess emissions premium of €95 will be applied for every gram over the specified emissions target. This is multiplied by the number of vehicles produced in that year by the relevant OEM.
10Market Research
Overview• The emissions debate• The facts • Technology options for latest phases of emissions legislation• Future power trains• Implications for pgm demand• Summary
11Market Research
Overview of catalyst components
TWC = Three Way CatalystLargely PdRh
DOC = Diesel Oxidation Catalyst Largely PtPd, alloy varies by region
CSF = Catalytic Soot FilterLargely PtPd
LNT = Lean NOx TrapPtPdRh content , high volume
SCR = Selective Catalytic ReductionNo pgm content (V, Cu, or Fe‐based), but needs high pgm‐loaded DOC upstream
GPF – Gasoline Particulate FilterLargely PdRh SCRF = Selective Catalytic Reduction
FilterNo pgm content
ASC = Ammonia Slip CatalystVery low pgm loading, low volume
12Market Research
Euro 6b and 6c technologyGasoline vehicles
Euro 5 TWC Euro 6c TWC + GPF
13Market Research
CSF
SCRCSF
Euro 5 basis
Euro 6b series
SCR
CSFLNT
SCRF®LNT-CSF
LNT
At Euro 6c the complexity of systems will increase substantiallySCRF®CSFLNT
Euro 2, 3, 4 basis
Euro 6b and 6c technologyDiesel vehicles
14Market Research
SCRCSF
CSFLNT
SCRF®LNT-CSF
LNT
SCRF®CSFLNT
Euro 6c technology optionsDiesel vehicles
CSF For vehicles with very low engine out NOx
Some smaller vehicles with low/med engine out NOx
For some light commercial vehicles as prefer underfloor SCR
No urea tank required – Ammonia generated over the LNT
Some extra LNT functionality on the filter
15Market Research
SCRF®
SCRFSCR/ASC
Euro 6c technology options (cont.)Diesel vehicles
For vehicles with high engine out NOx
SCRFASC More compact close coupled system (space/cost saving)
More compact close coupled system (space/cost saving) but with increased NOx functionalitySCRFASCLNT
16Market Research
Overview• The emissions debate• The facts • Technology options for latest phases of emissions legislation• Future power trains• Implications for pgm demand• Summary
17Market Research
Future powertrains
diesel
turbocharged gasoline engine
lean burn gasoline engineLPG
fuel cell
CNG
battery electrichybrid
EREV, MHEV, FHEV,PHEVdiesel and gasoline
options
18Market Research
Forecast diesel share of light duty vehicle markets
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Europe China N.America India Japan GlobalSource:LMC AutomotiveQ1 2015
18.6% 20.0%
19Market Research
Hybrid Vehicle Definitions
Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle IC and electric motor(s) working in parallel. Not able to drive under electric power alone. Electric assistance greater than 5kW, but less than 30kW. Typical figure is 10kW to 15kW.
Full Hybrid Electric VehicleIC and electric motor(s) working in parallel. Can be driven for short distances under electric power alone. Electric assistance greater than 30kW. Typical electric assistance ranges from 60kW to 165kW.
Plug‐in Hybrid Electric VehicleFull hybrid electric vehicle with larger battery pack which can be recharged from the electricity grid thereby enabling a longer electric‐only driving range.
Extended Range Electric VehicleIC and electric motor(s) working in series. A battery electric vehicle with an on‐board charger (usually IC engine+generator) for the battery pack to enable longer range than BEV.
Global Hybrid and EV Forecast***
Second Half, 2014
20Market Research
Forecast production of hybrid vehicle by category
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
units
FHEV PHEV MHEV EREV TOTAL
Source:LMC AutomotiveGlobal hybrid and electric vehicle forecast2nd half 2014
5.04 million units in 2021= 4.8% of total LDV units
eg BMW i3
eg Toyota Prius
eg Chevrolet Volt
eg Honda Accord
(Stop/starts not included)
21Market Research
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
FCEV
units
BEV un
its
BEV (lh axis) FCEV (rh axis)
Forecast production of BEV and FCEV
Source:LMC AutomotiveGlobal hybrid and electric vehicle forecast2nd half 2014
21k fuel cell vehicles in 2021, and 0.99 million BEV
eg Tesla
eg Toyota Mirai
22Market Research
Overview• The emissions debate• The facts • Technology options for latest phases of emissions legislation• Future power trains• Implications for pgm demand• Summary
23Market Research
Implications for pgm demand
BEV (battery electric) 2014 units = 150k; 2024 forecast units = 1.8m• No pgm (source = LMC Automotive)
FCEV (Fuel Cell) 2014 units = 340; 2024 forecast units = 96k• Current ~30 to 80 grams Pt (source = LMC Automotive)• DOE target loading of 12.5 grams by 2020
Hybrid EV 2014 units = 2.3m; 2024 forecast units = 7.1m• Frequent “cold” start (source = LMC Automotive)• Efficiency or performance ?• Up to 15% higher pgm loading in catalyst
Lean burn gasoline engines 2014 units = 280k • Better fuel efficiency, but higher NOx emissions• Requires a lean NOx trap = more pgm
Direct injection turbocharged gasoline engines• Better fuel efficiency, but higher HC and particulate emissions• Catalyst is further from engine, so exhaust gas is cooler• Overall result is more pgm in catalyst and possible need for particulate filter
24Market Research
Overview• The emissions debate• The facts • Technology options for latest phases of emissions legislation• Future power trains• Implications for pgm demand• Summary
25Market Research
Summary• Emissions from all vehicles need to be controlled by appropriate legislation, and at Euro 6c the real
world emissions from diesel cars will be similar to those from gasoline vehicles.
• Diesel vehicles are an essential tool to meet tightening greenhouse gas targets.
• New catalyst system designs will be increasingly complex, resulting in less certainty of future pgm loadings.
• New powertrains are unlikely to replace a substantial share of the existing ICE‐based market in the near term, but in most cases would require similar or higher pgm loadings.