kevin beyond theschlockofthenew_feb2015

TitleFinal presentation

00 XXX 2014

Beyond the Schlock of the New Kevin McCullagh

28 January 2015

‘ Strategy must be created from the future backwards.’ Gary Hamel

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Introduction

Strategy from the future backwards

Section

Title 1 line Introduction

The future is hazy

Core messageSlide 4Introduction

‘ Never make forecasts – especially about the future’ Sam Goldwyn

Cynicism

TitleSubtitleFuture is too important to be left to charlatans

‘ The future is part of every designer’s job description.’ Mark Newson

Introduction

ForesightIntroduction

Being‘ prescient about the size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’


Being‘ prescient about the size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’ by building an ‘assumption base about the future’


Being‘ prescient about the size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’ by building an ‘assumption base about the future’ based on ‘deep insights into the trends.’ Gary Hamel & C.K. Prahalad, ‘Competing for the Future’, 1994


Makes sense of a world in flux

Situates strategy within a future context


Makes sense of a world in flux

Situates strategy within a future context

But’s it’s not about predicting the future.

Section Slide 12Introduction

Trends provide reference points in a future context

Beyond the schlock of the new Slide 14

Frame and focusTake a long and wide view

Put sociology before technology

Get under the surface

Be an informed contrarian

Have a point of view

Track and tack

Section

Title 1 line Frame and focus

What’s relevant ... and why

Trends we trackFrame and focus

Social, Economic, Technological Design

Society

TechnologyEconomy

Frame and focus

SET trends

Notable Social, Economic and Technological dynamics with potential influence on product and service innovation

Social

TechnologicalEconomic

Frame and focus

3 levels

Meta trendsHigh-level dynamics with wide influence across many Macro trends Economic stagnation

Global interchange

Frame and focus

3 levels

Polarised prosperity

Meta trendsHigh-level dynamics with wide influence across many Macro trends

Macro trendsDevelopments that transcend markets, sectors and demographics Austerity

cultureUrban

renaissance

Economic stagnation

Global interchange

Frame and focus

3 levels

Polarised prosperity

Spaces of connection

Latinisation

Hyper-dense city cores

Cycling surge

Redefined town centres

Creativecities

Squeezedmiddleclasses

Boomers have the

cash

Lostgeneration

Noveau Briche

Space tourism

Super-rich migration

Access over ownership

Micro enterprise

Downsizing

Housing shortage

Smallindulgences

Returnment


Macro trendsDevelopments that transcend markets, sectors and demographics

Micro trendsParticular dynamics with specific impact on certain markets, sectors and demographics

Austerity culture

Urban renaissance

Economic stagnation

Global interchange

Frame and focus


Global interchangeA new interdependent phase of globalisation, in which influence flows in many directions

Economic stagnationSlow growth and declining living standards

Knowledge societyEducation, intelligence and creativity are more highly regarded

Network societyPeople learning how to leverage and negotiate an increasingly connected world

Big dataBenefits of being able to store, process and access huge amounts of information

Cloud servicesPervasive role of server-side data storage and processing

Internet of thingsNetworks of connected objects that sense and share information

Climate anxietyA range of concerns around climate change

Social fragmentationBreakdown of traditional social ties leading to individualisation

Social

TechnologicalEconomic

Frame and focus

Macro trendsDevelopments that transcend markets, sectors and demographics

Perpetualcontact

Cultureof fear

Culture ofemotions

Polarisedprosperity

Urbanrenaissance

Sustainabilitytensions

Hardwarerevival

Behaviourchange

Retailrevolution

Consumerisation of healthcare

Learningdiversity

Austerity culture

Labour imbalances

Innovation imperative

Productivity push

Smartsystems

Newconventions

Ageingsocieties

Search for authenticity

Trustcrisis

Frame and focus

Micro trendsParticular dynamics with specific impact on certain markets, sectors and demographics

Housing shortage

Micro enterprise

Boomers have the cash

Data security awareness

Creative cities

Corporate incubators

Hybrid IT

Integrated retail

Brand cathedrals


Smarter cities

Presumers

Cycling boomRedefined town centres

Online education channels

Civilian drones

Optimised life

Connected Car

Simultaneous translation

Behaviour sensing

Child tracking

Corporate backlash

Medical tourism

Moments of connection

Human augmentation

Frame and focus

Benefits

Mapping different types of trends on a common framework helps us:

– maintain a comprehensive helicopter view of future contexts

– categorise all trends within a common framework

– situate trends relative to each other

Perpetualcontact

Cultureof fear

Culture ofemotions

Polarisedprosperity

Urbanrenaissance


Hardwarerevival

Behaviourchange

Retailrevolution


Learningdiversity

Austerity culture

Labour imbalances


Productivity push

Smartsystems

Newconventions

Ageingsocieties


Trustcrisis

Frame and focus

Filter

Society

TechnologyEconomy

Perpetualcontact

Perpetualcontact

Cultureof fear

Culture ofemotions

Polarisedprosperity

Urbanrennaissance


Hardwarerevival

Behaviourchange

Retailrevolution


Learningdiversity

Austerity culture

Labour imbalances


Resource volatility

Smartsystems

Newconventions

Ageingsocieties


Trustcrisis

Housing shortage

Micro enterprise

Boomers have the cash


Creative cities

Corporate incubators

Hybrid IT

Integrated retail

Brand cathedrals


Smarter cities

Presumers

Cycling boomRedefined town centres

Online education channels

Civilian drones

Optimised life

Connected Car

Simultaneous translation

Behaviour sensing

Child tracking

Corporate backlash

Medical tourism

Moments of connection

Human augmentation

Selection criteria

Consumerfocus

Business relevance

Inspiring

Frame and focus

Design trend filtering

Mobile relevanceTrends potentially applicable to mobile handsets

Mass consumer relevanceTrends that could appeal to and be executed for budget conscious Indians

ClusteringSimilar trends were combined

Design workshopTrends that related to hot issues were prioritised

1

2

3

4


Frame and focus

Take a long and wide viewPut sociology before technology




Track and tack

Influ

ence

Time

Long term

Slide 28Take a long and wide view

Long waves

Influ

ence

Time

Short term

Long term

Slide 29Take a long and wide view

Beware the fads

Take a long and wide view

Design trend analysis

Slide 46

Inhibitors Drivers

Male / Female

200720062005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Popu

larit

yVery clean, simple, high-tech and human. But a little cheap and not quite stylish enough. Needs an update – some colour would improve it. CiCi Jiang, Design Researcher, Asus, Shanghai

Soft, human and popular. Always there and always will be. Hugo Caillerton, Founder, Sunlit Design, Guangzhou

CMF is perceived as cheap

Humanised technology

Too simple in its purist form

Simple and comfortable tech.A calm, simplified and usable expression of technology that is a little dull for some

RelevanceThis trend is well suited to Nokia’s reduction design strategy and the wider shift to simplicity in China. It is seen as a simple expression of technology that is comfortable and easy use. However in its purest form it is seen by many as cheap, poor quality, simple and even dull.

EvolutionA well established trend in the West and Japan that is strongly associated with high design of British designer Jasper Morrison and his Japanese counterpart Naoto Fukasawa. The shift to understatement and the arrival of Apple in China in recent years has helped drive this trend mainstream in the last few years.

Soft Minimalism

Shift to simplicity

Aspiration for Apple

Apple iMacMotorola PEBL V6

Punkt DP01(Jasper Morrison)

Samsung SGH-E590 (Jasper Morrison)

Apple iPhone 3GHTC Hero

Apple MacBook

Nice and simple forms which look comfortable and humane to touch.Josh Atkin, Head of Strategy, Jellymon Shanghai

Additional expert quotes

Slide 53

Inhibitors Drivers

Male / Female

Popu

larit

y

200720062005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Strong personal expression

Progressive associations

Premium expression of techToo masculine

Progressive and individual techPioneering and masculine language that expresses premium technology

RelevanceA trend that is well suited to a premium expression of technology. In its most overt form, it would be too aggressive for Nokia’s reduction design strategy. However dialled-down interpretations could work well. Its expressive aesthetic suits the need for Hyper Social to communicate personal style but it has strong masculine connotations.

Plank, Miura stool Lamborghini, Murcialago Nokia, Prism HTC, Diamond

Aava, Twist phone

Feels very different and individual.Prof. Huang Qun, School of Art & Design, University of technology, Wuhan

EvolutionWith roots in early 20th century Futurism, this long wave niche trend is most evident in high-end furniture, homewares and transportation, most notably in Lamborghini’s recent range of supercars which arrived in China in 2006. While Nokia’s Prism and HTC’s Diamond exemplified the trend in mobile phones, there has been little recent application of the trend in the world of consumer electronics.

Dynamic Futurism

Very pioneering, sharp, strong and masculine. Will appeal to the guys who’ll like the edgy, sharp forms and the high-quality finish.Anonymous, Industrial and UX Designer, Lenovo, Beijing

This has an edge! It is aggressive and masculine but still quite subtle and very high-tech. Tom Shi, Founder, Leaping Creative, Guangzhou

Additional expert quotes


Hype cycle

Peak of inflated Expectations

Slope of enlightenment

Plateau of productivity

Time

Visi

bilit

y

Technology trigger

Trough of disillusionment


Hype cycle

Valley of oblivionRavine of demise

Time

Visi

bilit

y Peak of inflated Expectations

Trough of disillusionment

Slope of enlightenment

Plateau of productivity

Technology trigger


Tech is not inevitable

Change and continuity


Users Experts

Trends

Market data

Industry sector context

Target market

Multiple lensTake a long and wide view


Frame and focus


Put sociology before technologyGet under the surface

Get beyond the schlock of the new



Track and tack


History or future?


Technology is only one driver of the future


FeminisationThe rise and social impact of women


Culture of fear

Paradoxically, as people live longer and healthier lives, they feel more at risk. Social fragmentation has led to people feeling more isolated from each other and more suspicious of authorities. The resulting sense of insecurity reduces the ability to gain a rationale perspective of actual risk levels.

Fear is experienced on many fronts. Health panics are a regular occurrence, from mad cow disease to swine flu. Dread of Islamic terrorism, nuclear disaster or extreme weather, indicate that fear has replaced hope as a dominant force in many societies. Governments have adopted the worst case thinking ‘precautionary principle’, which amounts to a ‘better safe than sorry’ approach to life.

Mokhtar Belmokhtar who claimed responsibility Algeria hostage crisis in January 2013

Related micro trends Emerging

Cyber security

Growing

Islamophobia

Extreme weather anxiety

Nuclear paralysis

Cash hoarding

Anti-globalisation


Declinism

Maturing

Safety consciousness

Declining

GM food panic

Macro trend

Also called: Risk society

Core messageSlide 41Put sociology before technology

We shape technology and technology shapes us

Beware technological determinism


Frame and focus



Get under the surfaceGet beyond the schlock of the new



Track and tack

Beyond pattern recognitionGet under the surface

Once is an accident


Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence


Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence Three times is a trend!


Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence Three times is a trend! OK, but why?

Perpetual contact Dynamics drivers and effects

DRIVERS

EFFECTS

Perpetualcontact

Widerand shallow

social networks

Mobile technology

Real-time life management

Contingent relations (driver)There is a tendency to keep options open, as less emphasis is put on committing to a decision.

Wider and shallow social networks (driver)People tend to keep in touch with a larger group of contacts, but spend less ‘quality time’ with any of them.

Focus on time use (driver)People increasingly feel that they are ‘running out of time’.

Mobile technology (driver)The evolution of mobile technologies like Location Based Services (LBS) and Bluetooth will change the way we navigate cities and use phones in vehicles.

The new phone booth (effect)Time spent in the car = telephone hours. Drivers enjoy the privacy provided by the car and the privilege to make use of their ‘dead time’.

Real-time life management (effect)People are moving towards managing their life ‘on the go’. They use their phone to manage time and space, in a flux of constant interruptions and feedback.

More face2face meetings (effect)Mobile phone use tends to generate more meetings.

Contingent relations

The new phone booth

More face2face meetings

Focus on time use


Analysis


Frame and focus




Be an informed contrarianHave a point of view

Track and tack

Trends

10 Trends for Europe in 2010Though they have effects which are indirect, the Four Megatrends are actually very strong and reinforce each other. The Six Trends will have a more focused impact.

Modernisation The old guard will be replaced by a younger generationGlobalisation Everyday life and work will become more internationalRisk + Fragmentation – Trust = Ethics A growing sensitivity to risk and social fragmentation, combined with a crisis of trust, will make Europeans want EthicsA Rich Techno-culture Wealth, together with their own kinds of Technology, will help Europeans preserve their historic Culture24-hour Society There will be more round-the-clock working and livingWork-life Balance The relationship between work and the rest of life will change in response to concern over Europe’s long working hoursLearning to be Flexible Europeans will move from a job for life to lifelong learning and ‘portfolio’ careersCar seen as a Problem While demand for mobility will increase, policies for transport and cities will aim to fight traffic congestionFriends are preferred to Family Friends will replace family as the main support networkIn search of Authenticity Reacting to the commercialisation of everyday life, Europeans will seek authentic experiences

Europe 2010

In search of Authenticity | Drivers

Marketisation of everyday lifeAs everything becomes a commodity, so European consumers will go in quest for something special, motivating – even spiritual.

‘I am not a target market’Increasingly aware of the ‘saturation marketing’ targeted at them in ever more subtle ways, European consumers will express resistance. Youth, in particular values things found by ‘word of mouth’, or and by being ‘in the know’. If something is mass-marketed, everyone knows about it – so it may be rejected.

Trust crisisHonesty, trust and directness are perceived to be rare (See Trust section of the Megatrend: Risk + Fragmentation - Trust = Ethics). These things are therefore also seen as precious.

WO�Europe 2010


Frame and focus





Have a point of viewTrack and tack

Dual Colour

Warm Metal

Light Follows Form

Pastel Accents

Layered TonesTonal Families

Tonal Greys Pastels Blocked

Dark Sumptuous ...

Lux Matte Black

Reflected Diffusion

Real Material Com.

Light Wood

Charcoal

Square Weave

Tonal Textures Gradients

White & Wood

Wood & Black

Uber Matte

Nude Tones

White & Gold

Gold & Black

Romantic Hues

Crystal Detailing

Browns & Coppers

Cork

ConcreteMono Colour

Block Primaries

Bright Blocks

Transparency Hue

Tinted Transparency

Primary Accents

Matte & Rubber ...White

Exaggerated Details

Wires

Pop Dots

Perforated Pattern

Macro Repetition

Quilted Pixilation

Variable Wave

Faceted Cubism

Protective Pattern

Pleated SurfaceGranular Montage

Patterned Colour

Dimple

Organic Petal

Floral Motif

Decorative Array

Decorative Lines

Surface Pattern

Micro Repetition

Micro Metal Tactility

Mechanic

Splice Transition

Crisp Cutaways

Sequential Lines

Smooth Transition

Fluid Wrap

Organic Maximlism

Extravagant Organic

Smart Organic

Truncated Solids

Layered Skin

Restrained OrganicPillowed Purity

Soft Swell

Frame

Tapered Trapesium

Internal Glow

High Tech Pops

Bold Bodies Contrasting Com.

Casual ModularitySoft Utility

Emphasised Feat...

Object Outline

Long Life Design

Delight & Humour

Modern Craft

Senseware

Pop Cute

Natural Life

Manga Effects...

Creature Features

Olympic Pattern

Urban Angst

Modern Heritage

Heritage Hybrid

Chinese Retro

Architectural Com..

Soft Minimalism

Cool Minimalism

Organic Minimalism

Sleek Tech

Retro Modern

Retro Futurism

Tough Technical

Vibrant Minimalism

Emotional Exp.

Slide 54S

erio

usP

layful

Elaborate

Simple

Craft & Utility

Futurism

Minimalism Naturals

Pop

Expressive


Trends Rarely concur


Frame and focus






Track and tack

Infrastructure / Legislation

Technology

Autonomous vehicles

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Smart watchesSome will introduce features that interface with cars

Level 2At least two controls can be automated in unison, such as adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping.

Level 3The driver can fully cede control of all safety-critical functions in certain conditions. The car senses when conditions require the driver to retake control and provides a ‘sufficiently comfortable transition time’ for the driver to do so.

Level 4Fully driverless cars maybe available but not affordable

Crossrail Services will begin in May 2015 between Liverpool Street and Shenfield and will be extended to other parts of the route during 2018 and 2019

Ultra Low Emissions Zone TfL proposal to limit road vehicles during business hours in central London to be zero or low emissions

Weekend night tube From September 2015, Jubilee, Victoria and most of the Piccadilly, Central and Northern tube lines will run all night on Fridays and Saturdays.

Contactless paymentMass adoption as readers are more widely rolled out and RFID is integrated into phones and smart watches

Connected carsCars with internet connection deeply integrated into driver and passenger experience

iBeaconsBluetooth LE devices that aid accuracy of indoor positioning and local notifications

5G networksFifth generation of mobile networks that will deliver dramatically faster connection speeds

Track and tack

Future contextAssumptions about developments that could influence the development of the service

Wise wordsTrack and tack

‘ hold strong opinions weakly… If you must forecast then forecast often – and be the first to prove yourself wrong.’ Paul Saffo

We join the dots

@kevinmccullwww.plan.london

https://twitter.com/kevinmccull

http://www.plan.bz

Car seen as a problem | Drivers

Europe 2010

More cars, making more journeys: infrastructure struggles to keep upNearly every European wants a car. But more and more Europeans don’t want other people to drive a car near them.

More work on the moveThrough the mobile phone, and other devices work will be more integrated with transport – including road transport. With cars, however, Risk consciousness will ensure that the working driver is regarded as a menace.

Congestion is regulated in the name of ethicsThough cars hardly have souls, their use is more and more regarded as unethical. The state will step in to protect motorists from themselves.

WO�