kennards hire planning day - craig rispin, business futurist & innovation expert

Craig Rispin CSP

A.T. Kearney Studied Why Strategic Planning Sessions Tend to Fail...

Strategy Formulation What Goes Wrong?

Lack of understanding of future trends (88%)

Little understanding of internal capabilities (87%)

Too much top-down approach (84%)

Not enough logical thinking (84%)

Kennards Future Planning Day

Global Overview - Exponential Change The S.T.E.E.P. Changes Driving Commerce and Your Industry Globally

Break with Discussion Topic

Sorting of Major Trends Most Relevant to Kennards

Rapid Future Scenario Model Creation -What’s the Most Probably Future World We’ll Bet On?

Lunch Break with Discussion Topics

Turning Scenarios Into Strategy Introduction - Using “Playing to Win: How Strategy Really Works” as Our Model

“Craig we’ve seen more change in the last 3 years

than in the last 30.”

People

Business Technology

Life SciencesWork/Life Shift A

cceleration

Age Wave

Education Re-Engineering

Global Nomads

Free Agency

End ofRetirement

Emerging Models

SharingEconomy

MarketingMegatrend

TrustEconomy

Machine Learning

Cloud Computing

SecurityScare

Coworking &Collaboration

Massively Mobile

Internet ofThings

Big Data

keynote:/Users/crrispin/Documents/%20New%20Presentations/Know%20First%20Master%20%C6%92/Know%20First%20Master%20Final%20Interactive%2012%20copy%203~.key?id=BGSlide-78






















































































































Technology Changes Exponentially

People Think Linearly

We’re Living in a World of Exponential Change

Did You Know - That in 2028?

Video Discussion

Discuss with a Partner:

What Did You Find Most Interesting in the Video?

“If change is happening on

the outside faster than on

the inside -the end is in

sight.”

-Jack Welch

As Some Opportunities Sunset...

Other Opportunities Emerge...

Where iPhones are More Valuable Than Oil

And 96 Companies are Valued at More Than

$1Billion

http://graphics.wsj.com/billion-dollar-club/

http://graphics.wsj.com/billion-dollar-club/

Just Think Where We Were Just

5, 10 or 15 Years Ago

5 Years Ago - No iPad Yet

10 Years Ago No iPhone Yet

15 Years Ago - The Dot Com Bubble

We’ve Made It Back - Only Took 15 Years

Are We in Another Tech Bubble?

Massively Mobile

How Big is Mobile Today?

7B People in the World

6.8B Mobile Subscribers

1.5B 3G/LTE Subscribers

1.9 Billion Mobiles Sold in 2014

97%Phones per 100 Citizens

How Many Mobile Internet Devices in Your House?

This is Leading Many Organisations to Have a

‘Mobile First Policy’...

Smart TVs

Wearables

The Future of Mobile is Massive!

This is Leading Many Organisations to Have a

‘Mobile First Policy’...

The Age Wave -Your Customers of

the Future

0

POPULATION2.42 million - 10%

% OF WORKFORCEToday: 1% | 2025: 0%

UNI DEGREE: 1 in 10



UNI DEGREE: 1 in 5



UNI DEGREE: 1 in 4



UNI DEGREE: 1 in 3



UNI DEGREE: 1 in 2

POP.1.9 m

8%

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015‘40 ‘50 ‘60 ‘70 ‘80 ‘90 ‘00 ‘10

6 million

70+ 51-69 36-50 21-35 6-20

<6

24 million

α

80.0 84.3

Life expectancy at birth

33.0 30.8

Median age of parents (new births)

29.9 28.3

Median age first marriage

Australia: 1.9 OECD: 1.7

Total fertility rate

ZYXB BB

A U S T R A L I A’ S G E N E R A T I O N A L P R O F I L E

P O P U L A T I O N B Y Y E A R O F B I R T HB

UIL

DE

RS

GE

NE

RA

TIO

N A

LP

HA

BA

BY

BO

OM

ER

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GE

NE

RA

TIO

N X

GE

NE

RA

TIO

N Y

GE

NE

RA

TIO

N Z

CITY

SYDNEY

MELBOURNE

BRISBANE

PERTH

ADELAIDE

Gold Coast

Newcastle

ACT/CANBERRA

Central Coast

Sunshine Coast

Wollongong

HOBART

Geelong

Townsville

Cairns

DARWIN

Toowoomba

Ballarat

Bendigo

Albury/Wodonga

Mackay

Launceston

Rockhampton

Bunbury

Bundaberg

Coffs Harbour

Wagga Wagga

Hervey Bay

Mildura

Gladstone

‘000

4,919

4,539

2,329

2,107

1,318

629

435

394

326

303

293

220

187

184

151

144

116

100

93

89

88

86

83

77

71

69

56

52

51

50

#

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

11

12

15

16

WA 2.63m - 11.0% 2.2% 1.87

NT 0.25m - 1.0% 1.0% 2.12

SA 1.70m - 7.1% 0.9% 1.85

QLD 4.79m - 20.1% 1.5% 1.94

NSW 7.63m - 32.0%

1.9% 1.94

ACT 0.39m - 1.6% 1.2% 1.78

TAS 0.52m - 2.2% 0.3% 2.01

VIC 5.95m - 25.0%

1.9% 1.77

A U S T R A L I APopulation: 24 million

Population growth rate: 1.6%

Total fertility rate: 1.9

Full-time8.1 mil

Part-time3.6 mil

Unemployed0.8 mil

Households9.1 mil

Average household size2.6 people/household

Median age37.3

Births300,900

Deaths148,600

Natural increase152,300

Arrivals492,400

Departures279,900

Net overseas migration212,500

E M P L O Y M E N T

P O P U L A T I O N

H O U S E H O L D S

Total employed11.7 mil

Unemployment rate6.2%

Total population growth364,800 people/year

Naturalincrease

42%

Net overseasmigration

58%

A U S T R A L I A ’ S P O P U L A T I O N M A P

MAP KEY CITY BY POPULATION

© Copyright McCrindle 2015 | Source: McCrindle, ABS

POPULATIONGROWTH

What Will Your Customer of the

Future Look Like?

Just Have a Look at Some of Them Now!

Meet Sally...

What’s the First and Last Thing She Does Everyday?

And Her Baby?

Is a Digital Native from Birth...

And Sally’s Granny?

Life Changing Device at 99 Years

And Sally’s Company?

Requires New Hires to Update Linkedin.com Profiles on Their First Day

She’s Tracking Her FitnessRe-Imagination of Health Awareness…

THEN…

Awareness Campaigns /Physician Visits

NOW…(Nike+ / Jawbone UP)

Always-On Tracking + Syncing + Analytics / Quantified Self

47

And That’s Today...In 5 Years What Will Customers Be Like?

Customers in 5 Years Forecast:Data Driven - Real Time Information on Vendors Transparency Abounds

Expert Seeking - Looking for Experts to Simplify and Advise, Provide Clear Solutions

Legislated Access - Most Forms of Comms to Customers Controlled by Customers by Law

Brand Un-Loyalty - Loyalty Continues to Evaporate as New Brands Grow Rapidly

Digital Customers Like Digital Solutions

(and Personalised Service Too)

High-Tech/High-TouchCustomers

The Internet of Things:50 Billion Devices

by 2020?

MWC IoT: 50 Billion Is Only the Beginning!

What Year Does the Number of Devices on

the Internet Exceed Number of People?

Personal Health Monitoring

Patient Monitoring Device...

Ultra-Sensitive Electrical Biosensor Unlocks Potential for Instant Diagnostic Devices

Source: University of California, Santa Barbara April 17, 2012

Confidential and Proprietary space150 ©2013

iBeacon was created to enable your phone to do things when you’re

close to a specific location

like alert you when you’re in front of this Apple Store

image source: Apple

Retail foot traffic is downFoot traffic is down 50% in three years from 2010 to 2013. !Online commerce is having a large and permanent impact on the traditional retail environment. !!!!!!

source: Wall Street Journal

E-commerce continues to growDigital sales are growing at the expense of offline sales. !“growth is coming from existing online shoppers who are spending more time and money - and in a wider variety of categories - online” !!!!!

source: Mashabl

V2V (M2M): Connected Cars

V2V: Will Be Mandated in All New Vehicles by

2017

Big Data:Data Scientists & Visualizations

Meet David McCandless:

What’s This a Chart of?

It’s the Facebook Breakup Chart

Do You Hadoop?

Machine Learning

Final Jeopardy?

Trust Economy

1 Billion Names are Googled

Every Day

There Are No More Blind

Dates...

...Especially in Business

SEO is Dead (or Dying)Paid Placement &Social Proof Rules

Online Reputation Managment

(ORM)

Rapid Scenario Planning (Lite Version)

Right Away

This Year

Next Year

2 Years

3-5 Years

Up

Playing to Win A.G. Lafley

keynote:/Users/crrispin/Desktop/Hybrid%20Events%20%C6%92/Hybrid%20Events%20for%20PCO.key?id=BGSlide-42

keynote:/Users/crrispin/Desktop/Hybrid%20Events%20%C6%92/Hybrid%20Events%20for%20PCO.key?id=BGSlide-42

3D Printing is Booming

Outrageous Outsourcing

fiverr.com

Individuals Can Now Do... What Companies Used to Do

Companies Can Now Do... What Countries Used to Do

What Will You Do?

Emerging Business Models

Warby Parker

Naturebox.com

Uber.com

You’re holding a handbook for visionaries, game changers, and challengers striving to defy outmoded business models and design tomorrow’s enterprises. It’s a book for the…

written byAlexander Osterwalder & Yves Pigneur

co-created byAn amazing crowd of 470 practitioners from 45 countries

designed byAlan Smith, The Movement

} 18

KRKey Resources

KPKey Partners

KAKey Activities

C$ Cost Structure

}19

CSCustomer Segments

CRCustomer Relationships

VPValue Propositions

CHChannels

R$Revenue Streams

Craig Rispin CSP