kelvin k. droegemeier school of meteorology university of oklahoma aaas annual meeting 15 february,...
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Kelvin K. DroegemeierKelvin K. DroegemeierSchool of MeteorologySchool of MeteorologyUniversity of OklahomaUniversity of Oklahoma
AAAS Annual MeetingAAAS Annual Meeting15 February, 200915 February, 2009
Transforming Severe Transforming Severe Weather Prediction Through Weather Prediction Through
Dynamic AdaptationDynamic Adaptation
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We Live in a Highly We Live in a Highly Vulnerable World…Vulnerable World…
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……That Requires AdaptationThat Requires Adaptation
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Observing Systems Do Not Observing Systems Do Not Sample the Atmosphere Sample the Atmosphere When/Where Needs are When/Where Needs are
GreatestGreatest
Forecast Models Run Forecast Models Run Largely on Fixed Largely on Fixed Schedules in Fixed Schedules in Fixed
DomainsDomains
The Nation’s The Nation’s Cyberinfrastructure is Cyberinfrastructure is
Virtually StaticVirtually Static
We Teach Using Current Weather We Teach Using Current Weather Data But Students Don’t Data But Students Don’t
InteractInteract With It With It
Why is Meteorology the Why is Meteorology the Exception?Exception?
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A Fundamental Research A Fundamental Research QuestionQuestion
Can we better understand the atmosphere, Can we better understand the atmosphere, educate more effectively about it, and educate more effectively about it, and forecast more accurately if we forecast more accurately if we adaptadapt our our technologies and approaches to the weather technologies and approaches to the weather as it occursas it occurs??
People, even animals adapt/respond: Why People, even animals adapt/respond: Why don’t our resources???don’t our resources???
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Sponsored by the National Science Foundation
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The LEAD VisionThe LEAD VisionRevolutionize the ability of scientists, Revolutionize the ability of scientists,
students, and operational students, and operational practitioners to observe, analyze, practitioners to observe, analyze, predict, understand, and respond to predict, understand, and respond to intense local weather by interacting intense local weather by interacting with it with it dynamically and adaptivelydynamically and adaptively in in
real timereal time
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Making it HappenMaking it Happen
Adaptive weather toolsAdaptive weather tools Adaptive sensorsAdaptive sensors Adaptive cyberinfrastructureAdaptive cyberinfrastructure
In a User-CenteredIn a User-CenteredFrameworkFrameworkWhere Where EverythingEverythingCanCanMutually InteractMutually Interact
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Copyright © 2003 WGN-TV
Computer ModelsComputer Models are the Primary are the Primary Source of Information for All Source of Information for All Weather & Climate PredictionsWeather & Climate Predictions
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The Prediction ProcessThe Prediction Process
Analyze ResultsAnalyze Results
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Observe the AtmosphereObserve the Atmosphere
Identify and ApplyIdentify and ApplyPhysical LawsPhysical Laws
Create a MathematicalCreate a MathematicalModelModel
Create and Run aCreate and Run aComputer ModelComputer Model
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The Prediction ProcessThe Prediction Process
Analyze ResultsAnalyze Results
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Observe the AtmosphereObserve the Atmosphere
Identify and ApplyIdentify and ApplyPhysical LawsPhysical Laws
Create a MathematicalCreate a MathematicalModelModel
Create and Run aCreate and Run aComputer ModelComputer Model
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Observe the Atmosphere Observe the Atmosphere
Upper-AirUpper-AirBalloonsBalloons
SatellitesSatellites
NEXRAD NEXRAD Doppler Doppler
RadarRadar
Commercial AircraftCommercial Aircraft
AutomatedAutomatedSurface Surface
NetworksNetworks
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The Prediction ProcessThe Prediction Process
Analyze ResultsAnalyze Results
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify Identify and ApplyIdentify and Apply
Physical LawsPhysical Laws
Create a MathematicalCreate a MathematicalModelModel
Create and Run aCreate and Run aComputer ModelComputer Model
Observe the AtmosphereObserve the Atmosphere
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Identify & Apply Identify & Apply Physical LawsPhysical Laws
F=ma
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The Prediction ProcessThe Prediction Process
Analyze ResultsAnalyze Results
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Create a MathematicalCreate a MathematicalModelModel
Create and Run aCreate and Run aComputer ModelComputer Model
Observe the AtmosphereObserve the Atmosphere
Identify and ApplyIdentify and ApplyPhysical LawsPhysical Laws
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Create a Mathematical ModelCreate a Mathematical Model
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The Prediction ProcessThe Prediction Process
Analyze ResultsAnalyze Results
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Create and Run aCreate and Run aComputer ModelComputer Model
Observe the AtmosphereObserve the Atmosphere
Identify and ApplyIdentify and ApplyPhysical LawsPhysical Laws
Create a MathematicalCreate a MathematicalModelModel
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Create Computer Model Create Computer Model
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Solve highly nonlinear partial differential Solve highly nonlinear partial differential equations equations
East/West WindEast/West Wind North/South WindNorth/South Wind Vertical WindVertical Wind TemperatureTemperature Water VaporWater Vapor Cloud WaterCloud Water Precipitating WaterPrecipitating Water Cloud IceCloud Ice GraupelGraupel HailHail Surface TemperatureSurface Temperature Surface MoistureSurface Moisture Soil TemperatureSoil Temperature Soil MoistureSoil Moisture Sub-Grid TurbulenceSub-Grid Turbulence
Run the Computer Model Run the Computer Model
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Over the course of a single Over the course of a single forecast, the computerforecast, the computermodel solves billions of model solves billions of equationsequations
Requires the fastest Requires the fastest supercomputers in the supercomputers in the world -- capable ofworld -- capable ofperforming quadrillionsperforming quadrillionsof calculationsof calculationseach secondeach second
Run the Computer Model Run the Computer Model
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The Prediction ProcessThe Prediction Process
Analyze ResultsAnalyze Results
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Com
pare
and
Ver
ify
Observe the AtmosphereObserve the Atmosphere
Identify and ApplyIdentify and ApplyPhysical LawsPhysical Laws
Create a MathematicalCreate a MathematicalModelModel
Create and Run aCreate and Run aComputer ModelComputer Model
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Computer Weather Prediction Began Computer Weather Prediction Began with a Vision in the early 1920s -- with a Vision in the early 1920s --
L.F. Richardson’s “Forecast L.F. Richardson’s “Forecast Factory”Factory”
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Richardson’s Forecast Grid – Richardson’s Forecast Grid – Predictions Done by HandPredictions Done by Hand
25 point mesh!
One Level
Grid Spacing = 250 km
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The Vision Becomes Reality… The Vision Becomes Reality… ENIACENIAC
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ENIAC Versus TodayENIAC Versus Today
Weighed 30 tonsWeighed 30 tons Had 18,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 Had 18,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays thousands of resistors, relays thousands of resistors, capacitors, inductorscapacitors, inductors
Peak speed of 5000 adds/second and Peak speed of 5000 adds/second and 300 multiplies/sec300 multiplies/sec
A 1.2 GHz Pentium IV processor is A 1.2 GHz Pentium IV processor is 500,000 times faster than the 500,000 times faster than the ENIACENIAC
A desktop PC with 1 Gbyte of RAM A desktop PC with 1 Gbyte of RAM can store 5 million times as much can store 5 million times as much data as the ENIAC data as the ENIAC
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Numerically Numerically integrated integrated oneone equation at equation at oneone altitudealtitude
736 km grid spacing736 km grid spacing 24 hour forecast 24 hour forecast took 24 hours to took 24 hours to compute!compute!
Forecast blew up Forecast blew up due to lack of due to lack of smoothing of data – smoothing of data – but rerun today, it but rerun today, it was ok!was ok!
450 Miles
1950: The First 1950: The First ComputerComputer Weather Forecast ModelWeather Forecast Model
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Today’s ModelsToday’s Models
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Typical Forecast from Today’s Typical Forecast from Today’s Operational ModelsOperational Models
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Why the Lack of Detail in Why the Lack of Detail in the Model? the Model?
This ThunderstormFalls Through the Cracks
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Why the Lack of Detail in Why the Lack of Detail in the Model? the Model?
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What Causes the Major What Causes the Major Problems?Problems?
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A Foundational QuestionA Foundational Question
. . . explicitly predict this. . . explicitly predict thistype of weather?type of weather?
Can computer forecastCan computer forecasttechnology. . .technology. . .
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The Answer is Yes…Sort The Answer is Yes…Sort Of!Of!
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Tornado
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NWS 12-hr Computer Forecast Valid at 6 pm CDTNWS 12-hr Computer Forecast Valid at 6 pm CDTNo No Explicit EvidenceExplicit Evidence of Precipitation in of Precipitation in
North TexasNorth Texas
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Reality Was Quite Different!Reality Was Quite Different!
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6 pm 7 pm 8 pmR
adar
Xue et al. (2003)
Fort Worth
Fcs
t W
ith
Rad
ar D
ata
2 hr 3 hr 4 hr
Fort Worth
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As a As a Forecaster Forecaster
Worried About Worried About This Reality… This Reality…
7 pm
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As a As a Forecaster Forecaster
Worried About Worried About This Reality… This Reality…
How Much How Much Trust Would Trust Would You Place in You Place in This Model This Model Forecast? Forecast?
3 hr
7 pm
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Initial State Uncertainty
Truth
Single Forecast
Traditional Forecasting
Methodology
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t critical
Deterministic Forecast
Probabilistic Forecast
Ensemble Forecasting
Initial State Uncertainty
Mean
Truth
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Actual RadarActual Radar
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Ensemble Member #1Ensemble Member #1 Ensemble Member #2Ensemble Member #2
Ensemble Member #3Ensemble Member #3 Ensemble Member #4Ensemble Member #4Control ForecastControl Forecast
Actual RadarActual Radar
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Probability of Intense Probability of Intense PrecipitationPrecipitation
Model Forecast Radar Observations
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Now I need a LOT More Now I need a LOT More Computing CapacityComputing Capacity
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Can We Do Better if we Adapt Can We Do Better if we Adapt Rather than React??Rather than React??
Charles Darwin
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Sample Problem Scenario in Sample Problem Scenario in AdaptationAdaptation
StreamingObservations
Storms Forming
Forecast Model
On-DemandGrid Computing
Data Mining
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How Does LEAD Do It? How Does LEAD Do It? The Notion of a Web ServiceThe Notion of a Web Service
Web Service: A Web Service: A program that carries program that carries out a specific set out a specific set of operations based of operations based upon upon requests from requests from clientsclients
The LEAD The LEAD architecture is a architecture is a “Service Oriented “Service Oriented Architecture”Architecture” (SOA), (SOA), which means that all which means that all of the key functions of the key functions are represented as a are represented as a set of servicesset of services. .
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Service-Oriented ArchitectureService-Oriented Architecture
Service A(Analysis)
Service B(Model)
Service C(Radar Stream)
Service D(Work Space)
Service E(VO Catalog)
Service F(Viz Engine)
Service G(Monitoring)
Service H(Scheduling)
Service I(Decoder)
Service J(Repository)
Service K(Mining)
Service L(Decoder)
Many others…
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Service B(Model)
Service A(Analysis)
Service C(Radar Stream)
Service D(Work Space)
Service K(Mining)
Service L(Decoder)
Service J(Repository)
Can Solve Broad Classes of ProblemsCan Solve Broad Classes of Problemsby Linking Services Together in by Linking Services Together in WorkflowsWorkflows
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Experiment Builder
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Research to Operational Research to Operational Practice: NOAA Hazardous Practice: NOAA Hazardous
Weather Test BedWeather Test Bed LEAD produced on-demand LEAD produced on-demand forecasts for experimental forecasts for experimental evaluation by operational evaluation by operational forecasters at the National forecasters at the National Storm Prediction CenterStorm Prediction Center– Fully automatedFully automated– Forecaster-initiatedForecaster-initiated
Mid-April – early June (severe Mid-April – early June (severe weather seasons) 2006, 2007, weather seasons) 2006, 2007, 20082008
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The Value of Adaptation: The Value of Adaptation: Forecaster-Initiated Forecaster-Initiated
Predictions on 7 June 2007Predictions on 7 June 2007
Brewster et al. (2008)
Radar Observations Standard 20-hr Forecast5 hr LEAD Dynamic Forecast
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Centers of On-Demand Forecast Grids Centers of On-Demand Forecast Grids Launched at NCSA During 2007 Spring Launched at NCSA During 2007 Spring
ExperimentExperiment
Launched automatically in response to hazardous weather messages (tornado watches, mesoscale discussions)
Launched based on forecaster guidance
Graphic Courtesy Jay Alameda and Al Rossi, NCSA
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The Million Dollar The Million Dollar Question: Will Question: Will Computer Models Computer Models Ever Be Able to Ever Be Able to
PredictPredict Tornadoes? Tornadoes?
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Schematic Diagram of a Supercell Storm (C. Doswell)
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Predicting Tornadoes: Predicting Tornadoes: The Warn on Forecast The Warn on Forecast
ConceptConcept
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We’re Capturing the We’re Capturing the Attention of Key Attention of Key
Leaders!!Leaders!!