Kelvin K. DroegemeierKelvin K. DroegemeierUniversity of OklahomaUniversity of Oklahoma

NCAR 50th Anniversary Special NCAR 50th Anniversary Special Symposium Symposium

The Future of Weather The Future of Weather Forecasting and Potential Forecasting and Potential

Roles to be Played by NCARRoles to be Played by NCAR

In the Beginning…In the Beginning…

Predictions by HandPredictions by Hand

25 point mesh!

One Level

Grid Spacing = 250 km

Done on ENIAC: 2.5 Done on ENIAC: 2.5 million times slower million times slower than my laptopthan my laptop

Numerically integrated Numerically integrated one equation at one one equation at one altitudealtitude

736 km grid spacing736 km grid spacing 24 hour forecast took 24 hour forecast took

24 hours to compute!24 hours to compute! Forecast below up due Forecast below up due

to lack of smoothing of to lack of smoothing of data – but rerun today, data – but rerun today, it was ok!it was ok!

450 Miles

1950: The First 1950: The First ComputerComputer Weather Weather Forecast ModelForecast Model

……And Things Have Been And Things Have Been Improving Ever SinceImproving Ever Since

Where Are We Today? Where Are We Today? Operations 60 Years After ENIACOperations 60 Years After ENIAC

Where Are We Today? Where Are We Today? CommunicationsCommunications

Where Are We Today? Where Are We Today? CommunicationsCommunications

KFWS 02Z 30 Nov 98

ARPS 6 h Forecast CREF (9 km) Valid 02Z 30 Nov 98

1998 Science and Technology1998 Science and Technology

Where Are We Today? R&DWhere Are We Today? R&D

1 km grid WRF, 9-hour Forecast

21 hr, 4 km WRF Ensemble Forecasts21 hr, 4 km WRF Ensemble Forecasts

Prob Ref > 35 dBZ Spaghetti

Observed 2 km GridXue et al. (2008)

Centers of On-Demand Forecast Grids Centers of On-Demand Forecast Grids Launched at NCSA During 2007 HWT Spring Launched at NCSA During 2007 HWT Spring

ExperimentExperiment

Launched automatically in response to hazardous weather messages (tornado watches, mesoscale discussions)

Launched based on forecaster guidance

Graphic Courtesy Jay Alameda and Al Rossi, NCSA

The Value of Dynamic Adaptation: The Value of Dynamic Adaptation: Forecaster-Initiated Predictions on 7 June Forecaster-Initiated Predictions on 7 June

20072007

Brewster et al. (2008)

Radar Observations Standard 20-hr Forecast5 hr LEAD Dynamic Forecast

Lili Ju (Univ. South Lili Ju (Univ. South Carolina)Carolina)Max Gunzberger (FSU)Max Gunzberger (FSU)Todd Ringler (LANL)Todd Ringler (LANL)

(Michael Duda, NCAR)

NCAR Model for Prediction Across Scales NCAR Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)(MPAS)

A Model of InnovationA Model of Innovation

New ObservationsNew Observations

Advanced Data AssimilationAdvanced Data Assimilation

Computational Power: Innovation?Computational Power: Innovation?

We’ve Been Wishing We’ve Been Wishing Wishing…Wishing…

Past EmphasisPast Emphasis

Our biggest challenges in weather Our biggest challenges in weather forecasting have been principally in the forecasting have been principally in the physical science physical science and and engineeringengineering domainsdomains– Efficient and accurate numerical solversEfficient and accurate numerical solvers– Good model physicsGood model physics– Sufficiently powerful computers/fine gridsSufficiently powerful computers/fine grids– Meaningful and plentiful observationsMeaningful and plentiful observations– Methods for assimilating dataMethods for assimilating data– Fast communications networksFast communications networks– Statistical measures of skillStatistical measures of skill

Limitations Have Been Our Limitations Have Been Our FriendFriend

We’ve benefitted from an ability toWe’ve benefitted from an ability to– Separate scalesSeparate scales– Not explicitly predict unobservable Not explicitly predict unobservable

phenomenaphenomena– Verify what we can observeVerify what we can observe– Predict weather in relative isolation from Predict weather in relative isolation from

other physical systems (e.g., ecosystems)other physical systems (e.g., ecosystems)– Consider weather and climate as mostly Consider weather and climate as mostly

distinctdistinct– Forecast weather reasonably well without a Forecast weather reasonably well without a

unified theory of predictabilityunified theory of predictability

The Future Will be QUITE The Future Will be QUITE Different!Different!

Weather forecasts of the future will be Weather forecasts of the future will be one component of a risk assessment one component of a risk assessment and decision process for people, and decision process for people, businesses, nationsbusinesses, nations

Understanding what to convey, and Understanding what to convey, and how to convey it, will require trans-how to convey it, will require trans-disciplinary collaboration with the disciplinary collaboration with the social, behavioral, economic, and other social, behavioral, economic, and other sciencessciences

Statistical skill will be overshadowed by Statistical skill will be overshadowed by measures of value and cost benefitmeasures of value and cost benefit

The Future Will be QUITE The Future Will be QUITE Different!Different!

The distinction between weather and The distinction between weather and climate will become much less clearclimate will become much less clear

Weather prediction will become much Weather prediction will become much broader and will encompass broader and will encompass ecosystems and other biological ecosystems and other biological domainsdomains

Fixed prediction schedules and Fixed prediction schedules and geographic domains will give way to geographic domains will give way to dynamically adaptive approaches in dynamically adaptive approaches in which the entire prediction system which the entire prediction system adjusts automatically to the situation at adjusts automatically to the situation at handhand

The Future Will be QUITE The Future Will be QUITE Different!Different!

Computers with millions of cores and Computers with millions of cores and 100-1000 core nodes will require 100-1000 core nodes will require entirely new approaches to solving the entirely new approaches to solving the equationsequations

Warnings will be issued based upon Warnings will be issued based upon fine-scale weather forecasts, fine-scale weather forecasts, fundamentally changing human fundamentally changing human interpretation and responseinterpretation and response

We will be forced to revisit the We will be forced to revisit the fundamental tenets of predictability as fundamental tenets of predictability as we now understand themwe now understand them

Numerical Prediction with Radar Data Assimilation

The Future Will be QUITE The Future Will be QUITE Different!Different!

In other words, many of the key In other words, many of the key challenges for the future will reside challenges for the future will reside notnot in in physical science and engineering domains physical science and engineering domains alonealone, but also in the social, behavioral, , but also in the social, behavioral, health, policy and economic scienceshealth, policy and economic sciences– Urban livingUrban living– Environmental sustainabilityEnvironmental sustainability– EnergyEnergy– Ecosystem productivityEcosystem productivity– TransportationTransportation

Potential Roles for NCARPotential Roles for NCAR To To continuecontinue serving as a disciplinary change serving as a disciplinary change

agent and integratoragent and integrator– Basic and applied researchBasic and applied research– Innovation in observations (COSMIC)Innovation in observations (COSMIC)– Community models (WRF Community models (WRF MPAS) MPAS)– Deployable research observing platformsDeployable research observing platforms– Linking research and operationsLinking research and operations– High performance computing & related researchHigh performance computing & related research– Integrating other physical science domainsIntegrating other physical science domains– Environment for nurturing new talentEnvironment for nurturing new talent Enabling the academic communityEnabling the academic community

Potential Roles for NCARPotential Roles for NCAR To attack the social, behavioral, and To attack the social, behavioral, and

economic science aspects of weather economic science aspects of weather forecasting through new partnerships with forecasting through new partnerships with academia that leverage capabilities at NCARacademia that leverage capabilities at NCAR

Universities have entire departments/centersUniversities have entire departments/centers– SociologySociology– PsychologyPsychology– EconomicsEconomics– FinanceFinance– RiskRisk– Life scienceLife science

– AnthropologyAnthropology– Political SciencePolitical Science– Public PolicyPublic Policy– MedicineMedicine– Public HealthPublic Health– Ecology/biologyEcology/biology

A Good ExampleA Good Example

Warn on Explicit Warn on Explicit Forecast?Forecast?

Getting What We Wish For! Getting What We Wish For! Warn-on-Forecast Will…Warn-on-Forecast Will…

Completely change the notion of a hazardous Completely change the notion of a hazardous weather warning (and of forecasting)weather warning (and of forecasting)– Information content, communicationInformation content, communication– Implications for other domains such as homeland Implications for other domains such as homeland

securitysecurity Completely change how people respond?Completely change how people respond?

Relevance of flash flood warnings, hurricane Relevance of flash flood warnings, hurricane warningswarnings

Require integration of economicsRequire integration of economics Require quantification of uncertainty – could be Require quantification of uncertainty – could be

the downfall or the reason for successthe downfall or the reason for success Require understanding of predictabilityRequire understanding of predictability

NCAR Going ForwardNCAR Going Forward NCAR and the UCAR community will be NCAR and the UCAR community will be

vitally important for ushering in this new vitally important for ushering in this new era of “weather forecasting”era of “weather forecasting”– Consistent with its strategic planConsistent with its strategic plan

The Blue Book vision in reverseThe Blue Book vision in reverse We must work together to keep NCAR We must work together to keep NCAR

strong and vibrant, engaging all relevant strong and vibrant, engaging all relevant programs at NSF and other agenciesprograms at NSF and other agencies

Greater role of the private sector at Greater role of the private sector at NCAR in “weather forecasting?”NCAR in “weather forecasting?”