ke ipsos spec_poll_press_release_presentation_3rd_september_2015

1 © 2015 Ipsos. 1

SPEC Barometer PREPARED BY: IPSOS

PREPARED FOR: GENERAL RELEASE

RELEASE DATE: 3RD SEPTEMBER 2015

Ipsos Public Affairs

© 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

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Contents

Victims of Crime/ Type of Crime

A

KDF in Somalia

B C

E D

Reporting Crime to Police/ Satisfaction with Police Response

Perceived Terrorism Threat Level

Awareness of Past/Most Recent Al-Shabaab Attacks

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METHODOLOGY

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4 © 2015 Ipsos.

Methodology Dates of Fieldwork 30th July – 9th August, 2015

Sample Size 2,002 (Total Individual Contacts: 2,471)

Sampling Methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)

Population Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in Urban and Rural areas (41 counties covered)

Data Collection Methodology Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

Sampling Error +/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

Interview Languages English, Swahili, Somali

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Sample Structure Statistics

Region Sample Frame statistics

(August 2015)

*Weighted data

% Population Census as at 2009

Adults (18 years +) %

Central 262 13 2,548,038 13

Coast 176 9 1,711,549 9

Eastern 299 15 2,907,293 15

Nairobi 210 10 2,042,770 10

North Eastern 96 5 929,158 5

Nyanza 262 13 2,547,980 13

Rift Valley 493 25 4,795,482 25

Western 204 10 1,980,090 10

TOTAL 2,002 100 19,462,360 100

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Quality Control Measures

• For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout

• Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).

• After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).

• Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.

• Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.

Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data

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RESPONDENTS’ DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

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(Weighted for: Gender, Age,

Region and Setting)

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10%

9%

13%

25%

5%

15%

13%

10%

51%

49%

28%

29%

18%

25%

37%

63%

Nairobi

Coast

Nyanza

Rift Valley

North Eastern

Eastern

Central

Western

Female

Male

18 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44

45+

Urban

Rural

24%

1%

42%

8%

5%

5%

10%

4%

1%

8%

17%

29%

23%

4%

6%

0%

7%

2%

3%

Catholic

Catholic Charismatic

Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…

SDA

Evangelical

Other Christian

Muslim

Other

RTA/None

Public Sector wages/salary

Private sector wages /salary

Gains from self employment/…

Agriculture (own/household farm)

Livestock

Given money by others

Pension from previous employment

Other

DK

RTA/None

Region

Gender

Age

Setting

Religion

Source of Household Income

Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)

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5%

16%

18%

16%

25%

7%

6%

3%

3%

Less than 1%

4%

42%

30%

10%

3%

2%

9%

No Formal

Some Primary

Completed Primary

Some Secondary

Completed Secondary

Some Mid-Level College

Completed Mid-Level College

Some University

Completed University

Any Post-Graduate (MA, MBA, PhD)

No income

Less than 10,000

10,001 – 25,000

25,001 – 40,000

40,001 – 55,000

55,001 – Above

RTA/DK

Level of Education

Income for ALL Household members


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38%

20%

11%

10%

7%

5%

5%

2%

1%

Self-Employed/Business Owner

Unemployed

Private Sector Employee

Peasant/Herder (Own Farm/Pasture)

Casual Labour

Public Sector Employee

Student

Retired

Other

Total Wage Employment: 16%

Employment Status


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PERSONAL SECURITY/CRIME

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“Have you been a victim of crime in the last three months?” (By Total)

70%

0%

15%

0% 50% 100%

Once

Twice

More Than Twice

“How many times?”

Base: Those reporting to have been victims of

crime in the last three months (n=107) Base: n=2,002

95%

5%

No Yes

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“Have you been a victim of crime in the last three months?” by Total, Region

Base: n=2,002

5%

14%

10% 9%

6% 5%

3% 3% 2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Total(n=2,002)

Nairobi(n=210)

NorthEastern(n=96)

Coast(n=176)

Western(n=204)

Eastern(n=299)

Central(n=262)

Nyanza(n=262)

Rift Valley(n=493)

% saying “Yes”

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61%

20%

13%

0% 50% 100%

Not Satisfied

Somewhat Satisfied

Completely Satisfied

YES, 51%

NO, 49%

YES NO

Base: Those stating they have

been victims of crime in the

last three months (n=107)

“How satisfied were you with the way the

police responded?”

Base: Those claiming to have reported these

crimes to the police (n=51)

Nature of

Crime

May

2014

Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 April

2015

Aug.

2015

Violent 41% 47% 46% 59% 40%

NOT violent 57% 51% 48% 38% 56%

RTA 2% 2% 6% 3% 4%

“Did you report the crime to the police?

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55%

21%

18%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Weak/No follow up ininvestigations

Corruption

Slow/No response toimmediate crime report

Other

Reporting/Reason for Being “Not Satisfied” with Police Response

Base: Those who were

satisfied (n=18)

“Why were you not satisfied were you with

the Police response?”

Base: Those who reported and were “not

satisfied” with police response (n=33)

“Why were you satisfied with the Police response?”

48%

19%

29%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Criminal(s) was(were)arrested

Stolen property wasrecovered

Police took measures toincrease security

Other

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“Have you been a victim of crime in the last three months?” Trend Analysis: October 2006 – August 2015

11% 10% 10% 10% 7% 10% 9% 5% 5%

40%

60%

42%

56% 49%

58% 49% 51%

41%

58%

43% 50%

60% 63% 68%

61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Oct. 2006 Oct. 2008 Jun-13 Nov. 2013 May-14 Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 Apr-15 Aug. 2015

Crime Victims Reported To Police "Not Satisfied with Police Response"

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SOMALIA ISSUES

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“As far as you know, which al-Shabaab attack in Kenya caused the greatest loss of life?” by Total, Region

70%

79% 74% 73% 71% 71%

61% 61% 58%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total(n=2,002)

Central(n=262)

Nyanza(n=262)

Eastern(n=299)

Nairobi(n=210)

Rift Valley(n=493)

Western(n=204)

Coast(n=176)

NorthEastern(n=96)

Correct Answer: Garissa University College Attack (April, 2015)


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49%

64% 62% 61%

52% 51% 49%

40%

30%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total(n=2,002)

NorthEastern(n=96)

Central(n=262)

Nairobi(n=210)

Nyanza(n=262)

Eastern(n=299)

Coast(n=176)

Rift Valley(n=493)

Western(n=204)

Correct Answer: Quarry Workers Killed in Mandera Town (July, 2015)

“As far as you know, what was the most recent attack in Kenya by al-Shabaab?” by Total, Region


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36%

44%

28%

45% 49%

43% 48%

38%

11% 9%

19%

9% 4% 4% 5%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

A unified and stable countryunder the new Government of

Somalia

An increase in terroristattacks in Kenya

Refugees able to return totheir homes in Somalia

The military defeat of al-Shabaab

More Likely Less Likely No Difference Not Sure

“Do you think the presence of the KDF in Somalia will make the following…?” by Those (77%) Aware of KDF in Somalia

Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,538)

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Perceived Impact of KDF Action in Somalia on 4 Issue-Outcomes: By Total of Those (77%) Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia


54%

68%

47%

40% 38%

46%

49% 36% 36%

26%

56%

41%

56%

45% 45%

55% 49%

44% 39%

49%

38%

45%

31% 33%

57%

26%

28%

48%

56%

45% 49% 38%

43%

50%

34%

45%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Oct. 2011(n=1,618)

Nov. 2013(n=1,762)

March 2014(n=1,482)

May 2014(n=1,693)

Sept. 2014(n=1,601)

Nov.2014(n=1,611)

Dec.2014(n=1,806)

April 2015(n=1,492)

Aug. 2015(n=1,538)

A unified and stable country under the new Govt of Somalia

An increase in terrorist attacks in Kenya

Refugees able to return to their homes in Somalia

The military defeat of al-Shabaab

% saying “MORE LIKELY”

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57%

80%

62% 59% 55%

46% 42% 39% 37%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total)m=1,538)

Central(n=227)

Rift Valley(n=374)

Eastern(n=244)

Nairobi(n=187)

Nyanza(n=189)

Coast(n=122)

NorthEastern(n=54)

Western(n=141)

% Who Approve

“Do you approve or disapprove of the continued deployment of the KDF in Somalia?” by Total, Region (Among Those 77% Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia)


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“Do you approve or disapprove of the continued deployment of the KDF in Somalia?” by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions (Among Those 77% Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia)


57%

70%

39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,538) Jubilee Supporters (n=766) CORD Supporters (n=485)

% Who Approve

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“How much of a threat would you say that al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of now? Is it… a threat?” by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions


76% 73%

80%

15% 17% 14%

6% 7% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=2002) Jubilee Supporters (n=957) CORD Supporters (n=618)

Very Much Somewhat Not Much Not At All DK/NR

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“How much of a threat would you say that al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of now? Is it… a threat?” by Total, Region


81% 79% 78% 77% 76% 75% 73%

60%

9% 11% 12% 14% 16% 18% 16%

29%

4% 4% 3% 7% 5% 7% 9% 7%

2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 4% 4% 4%

0% 2% 0% 1% 4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Western (n=204) Nyanza (n=262) Coast (n=176) Rift Valley(n=493)

Eastern (n=299) Central (n=262) Nairobi (n=209) North Eastern(n=94)

Very Much Somewhat Not Much Not At All DK/NR

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“Altogether, what do you think is the main thing that should be done to reduce the threat of al-Shabaab?” (Single Response, Unprompted) by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions

Preferred Measure Total (n=2002) Jubilee Supporters (n=957) CORD Supporters (n=618) % Difference

Send More Troops 25% 28% 25% -3%

Withdraw Troops 25% 18% 35% +8%

Enhance Intelligence 23% 28% 18% -10%

Reduce Corruption 8% 8% 9% +1%

Build Border Wall 8% 10% 6% -4%

Not Sure 10% 9% 7% -2%

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Contacts

Dr Tom Wolf Research Analyst

[email protected]

Hilda Kiritu Head of Public Affairs

[email protected]

Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe

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