1. Kantar Worldpanel Some rules of the NPD game WHAT CAN AN ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF 7,300 UK FMCG NEW LAUNCHES TELL US?

2. Kantar Worldpanel 0 5 10 15 20 25 Year End Sales 7,300 UK Branded Grocery Launches within 287 Categories in Jan 2010 - Jan 2012 To be big is hard: only 3% achieve over 5m in first year Cum Spend after 1 year (Millions) 15% 3% 7,300 Ranked Launches

3. Kantar Worldpanel 3 Kantar Worldpanel Attraction (number of buyers) is the real key to size of brand launch MAT figures for 550 non-seasonal UK food & soft drink branded launches, sold in more than one retailer, with at least 52 w/e sales 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Year 1 Sales 000s Annual Penetration % Each Point represents an Individual Launch Flora Pro Active Buttery Lurpak Spreadable Lightest Kenco MillicanoToffee Dodgers Foxs Ambers Think how do I attract at least 4% of the population to buy the brand to be one the big launches

4. Kantar Worldpanel 4 Kantar Worldpanel 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Small brands have high and low repeat rates Year 1 Sales 000s Annual Repeat % Each Point represents an Individual Launch You cant predict the size of the brand based on the repeat rate MAT figures for 550 non-seasonal food & soft drink branded launches, sold in more than one retailer, with at least 52 w/e sales

5. Kantar Worldpanel Average size of Launch Band (m) Average # stores with sales (max=6) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 7300 branded grocery launches grouped into MAT sales bands what was the average number of different stores in which they had sales? Attraction comes from being available to buy everywhere .2% 1% 15%4+ Stores 2-3 Stores 1 Stores Chance of reaching 5m if sold in :- 5 times more likely to a 5m or more launch if I know you have good distribution

6. Kantar Worldpanel Num of SKUs In initiative 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 The same story applies if you offer more choice to the consumer Average size of Launch Band (m) 1% 6% 17%4+ SKUs 2-3 SKUs 1 SKU Chance of reaching 5m if launching :- 7300 branded grocery launches grouped into MAT sales bands what was the average number of SKUs launched in Year 1? Nearly 6 times more likely to a 5m or more launch if you offer 4 or more skus

7. Kantar Worldpanel More 170%150-170%130-150%110-130%90-110%70-90%50-70%Less