© kantar worldpanel roi grocery market review data to 10 th june 2012
TRANSCRIPT
© Kantar Worldpanel
ROI GROCERY MARKET REVIEWData to 10th June 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
OVERVIEW
Market Overview•The annual market sales are behind last year, with a decline in market value of 0.1% year-on-year and 0.5% over the shorter term (12 weeks period).
•The grocery market has shown volume growth of 0.6% year on year and by 0.9 over the 12 week period.
•Shoppers are buying more volume but despite price inflation are managing their spend through trading down to own brand, shopping around, shopping to a budget and planning ahead.
•Consumers are making more shopping trips, but the average spend per trip has reduced by 3.7%.
•Private label continues to be important as a method of reducing spend with a market share at 35%.
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Irish grocery market is in decline over 52w period by -0.1% and over the 12w period by -0.5%.
TOTAL IRISH GROCERY MARKET VALUE AND GROWTH 52 &12 W/E
+0.8% -0.1% +0.7% -0.5%
52 & 12 W/e 10 Jun 12
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The Irish grocery market is in volume growth over 52w by +0.6% and over 12w by +0.9%.
5,171,677 5,137,585 5,166,913
1,191,057 1,179,478 1,190,464
52 w/e 13 Jun 10
52 w/e 12 Jun 11
52 w/e 10 Jun 12
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 12 Jun 11
12 w/e 10 Jun 12
Pack
s 00
0's
-0.7% +0.6% -1% +0.9%
TOTAL IRISH GROCERY VOLUME SALES AND GROWTH 52 &12 W/E
52 & 12 W/e 10 Jun 12
© Kantar Worldpanel
-2.3%
-7.1%
-0.5%
+0.4%
+0.3%
-3.3%
+0.7%
Ambient Food, Fresh Food and Frozen Food sectors continue to increase sales and win share over the full year
TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR VALUE SHARE & GROWTH 52W/E
52 W/e 10 Jun 12
© Kantar Worldpanel
Fresh & Chilled Produce
47%
Ambient Food 29%
Household 7%
Frozen 5%
Alcohol 7%Toiletries 4%
Healthcare 1%
Share of total trolley
Total Trolley
-0.5% value
Toiletries, Healthcare, and Alcohol sectors have been the driving forces behind value decline
TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR VALUE SHARE & GROWTH 12W/E
12 W/e 10 Jun 12
© Kantar Worldpanel
12w Total Grocery - value %chg by category
ANALYSIS BY CATEGORY - GROWTH/DECLINE?Canned Goods, Hot Beverages, Fresh Fish and Poultry are some of the stronger performing categories this period. Shoppers continue to spend less on Bathroom Toiletries and Chilled Bakery Products year on year
12 W/e 10 Jun 12
© Kantar Worldpanel
% change year on year – 12 week period
CHANGE IN INFLATION RATES AND HOUSEHOLD SPEND 12 W/E Household spend change has decreased to -0.59% year on year
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
80
18
03
80
58
07
80
98
118
13
90
29
04
90
69
08
91
09
12
10
01
10
03
10
05
10
07
10
09
10
111
01
311
02
110
411
06
110
811
10
111
21
20
11
20
31
20
51
20
7
Inflation HH Spend change
12 W/e 10 Jun 12
© Kantar Worldpanel
9
HOW DO SHOPPERS REACT TO INFLATION? – CONSUMER COPING STRATEGIES Shoppers are buying more volume this year. With increased inflation, shoppers are coping by purchasing on promotion and trading down.
12w Total Grocery - consumer coping strategies
12 W/e 10 Jun 12
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12w Total Grocery - consumer coping strategies trended
TRENDED VIEW OF CONSUMER COPING STRATEGIES -12 W/EBuying on offer and trading down has been a key theme for shoppers since the start of 2008
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
30th
De
c 0
7
24th
Feb
08
20th
Ap
r 08
15th
Jun
08
10th
Au
g 0
8
05th
Oct
08
30th
No
v 0
8
25th
Jan
09
22nd
Mar
09
17th
May
09
12th
Jul 0
9
06th
Sep
09
01st
Nov
09
27th
De
c 0
9
21st
Fe
b 1
0
18th
Ap
r 10
13th
June
10
08th
Au
g 1
0
03rd
Oct
10
28th
No
v 1
0
23rd
Jan
11
20th
Mar
11
15th
May
11
10th
Jul 1
1
04th
Sep
11
30th
Oct
11
25th
Dec
11
19th
Feb1
2
15th
Apr
12
10th
Jun1
2
Promotion/Product Change Store Choice Inflation Volume per buyer HH Spend Change
12 W/e 10 Jun 12
© Kantar Worldpanel
12w Total Grocery - changes in consumer shopping behaviour
Average frequency increased by +3.2%
Average frequency increased by +3.2%
Average basket spend reduced by -3.7%
Average basket spend reduced by -3.7%
€7 decrease in 12w spend per HH (-0.6%)
€7 decrease in 12w spend per HH (-0.6%)
CHANGES IN CONSUMER SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR 12 W/E Irish households continue to shop more often this year, but spending an average of €0.80 less per trip
12 W/e 10 Jun 12
© Kantar Worldpanel
12
(Under €30) (€100+)
29% 44% 27%2007
35% 45% 20%2012
(€30 - €100)
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: 52 W/E JUNE 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
BRANDED VALUE SHARE OF TOTAL IRISH GROCERY MARKETBranded goods losing resonance
13KANTAR WORLDPANEL: 52 W/E JUNE 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
12w Total Grocery – PL value%
PRIVATE LABEL VALUE SHARE OF TOTAL IRISH GROCERYPrivate Label sales are driving market performance, however value share has fallen since March and is now 35%
12 W/e 10 Jun 12
47% in UK
© Kantar Worldpanel
Top 10 growth categories 2007 - 2012
Bakery
Confectionery
Home Cooking
Canned Food
Hot Beverages
Home Baking
Crisps & Snacks
Ambient Carbs
Soft Drinks
Frozen Food
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: 52 W/E MAY 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
16
UK Market Overview
© Kantar Worldpanel
17
UK GROCERY SUMMARY
— Inflation slowing in UK grocery, household spend also slows, but the market is
still in growth year on year.
— Own label products grow ahead of branded goods, with own label market
share now at 47%.
— Shoppers manage spend by buying into own label and trading down price tier.
© Kantar Worldpanel
18
TOTAL UK MARKET SALES GROWTH 12W/EThe UK market is in 12w/e sales growth of 2% this period while inflation slows to 4.45%.
12 W/e 10 Jun 12
© Kantar Worldpanel
19
UK SHOPPER REACTION Trading down product is key for UK households managing their spend
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
9
12 w
/e 1
7 M
ay 0
9
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 0
6 Sep
09
12 w
/e 0
1 Nov
09
12 w
/e 2
7 Dec
09
12 w
/e 2
1 Fe
b 10
12 w
/e 1
8 Apr 1
0
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 10
12 w
/e 0
8 Aug 1
0
12 w
/e 0
3 Oct
10
12 w
/e 2
8 Nov
10
12 w
/e 2
3 Ja
n 11
12 w
/e 2
0 M
ar 1
1
12 w
/e 1
5 M
ay 1
1
12 w
/e 1
0 Ju
l 11
12 w
/e 0
4 Sep
11
12 w
/e 3
0 Oct
11
12 w
/e 2
5 Dec
11
12 w
/e 1
9 Fe
b 12
12 w
/e 1
5 Apr 1
2
12 w
/e 1
0 Ju
n 12
Volume Retailer Promotion Product
12 W/e 10 Jun 12
© Kantar Worldpanel
20
UK GROWTH IN GROCERY PACK SALES BY PRICE BANDWith shoppers seeking to manage their spend in the UK, budget products see a strong increase in sales.
28
22
31
11
8
Share
SuperPremium
Premium
Good
Standard
Budget
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
0.3
9.4
3.2
-2.9
-8.5-10.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
AllPurchases
Budget Standard Good Premium SuperPremium
Change in sales Share of sales
12 W/e 10 Jun 12
© Kantar Worldpanel
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
03-O
ct-1
0
31-O
ct-1
0
28-N
ov-1
0
26-D
ec-1
0
23-J
an-1
1
20-F
eb-1
1
20-M
ar-1
1
17-A
pr-1
1
15-M
ay-1
1
12-J
un-1
1
10-J
ul-1
1
07-A
ug-1
1
04-S
ep-1
1
02-O
ct-1
1
30-O
ct-1
1
27-N
ov-1
1
25-D
ec-1
1
22-J
an-1
2
19-F
eb-1
2
18-M
ar-1
2
15-A
pr-1
2
13-M
ay-1
2
10-J
un-1
2
Sal
es G
row
th £
%
12 w/e periods
Total Grocers Year-on-Year £% Changes
Total OL
Branded
21
PRIVATE LABEL VS BRANDED YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH – VALUE 12 W/EOwn label also sees growth ahead of branded goods over this year
12 W/e 10 Jun 12